UK General Election 2012 - Campaign Thread (FULL RESULTS)

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General Election 2012:

List of Players:

Labour Party
John McDonnell, Labour Leader and Prime Minister (Ted Bessell)
Lisa Nandy MP (Siren)
Jeremy Corbyn MP (GoTfan)
Owen Smith MP (Truman)

Conservative Party:
Theresa May, Conservative Leader (Barnes)
Ken Clarke MP (Dereich)
Philip Hammond MP (Kalwejt)

Liberal Democrats:
Nick Clegg, Lib Dem Leader (Blair)
Charles Kennedy MP (Dr. Cynic)

UKIP:
Paul Nuttall, UKIP Leader (Classic Conservative)
Nigel Farage (ChairmanSanchez)

SNP:
Alex Salmond, SNP Leader (Tim Turner)
Angus Robertson (Clyde)

Green Party:
Caroline Lucas, Green Leader (CMB222)

Sinn Fein:
Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein Leader (SJoyce)

DUP:
Arlene Foster, DUP Leader (Dkrol)

Electoral Regions:

Scotland: 59 MP's
Wales: 40 MP's
Northern Ireland: 18 MP's
England: 533 MP's
-East of England: 58 MP's
-East Midlands: 46 MP's
-London: 73 MP's
-North East: 29 MP's
-North West: 75 MP's
-South East: 84 MP's
-South West: 55 MP's
-West Midlands: 59 MP's
-Yorkshire and the Humber: 54 MP's

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Turn One: Of Leaders and Manifestos

January 5th to January 12th, 2012

Dimbleby: Good evening, and welcome to our coverage of the 2012 General Election.

Politics has turned unpredictable and exciting at its most after the surprise election of John McDonnell as Leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister, starting the chain of events that leads us to this election. With the Government defeated in a vote of no confidence by Theresa May and Nick Clegg, a five-week campaign has been set before the British public goes to the polls on February 9th. Let’s go to Nick Robinson for some analysis of the current situation:

Robinson: Yes, David, truly an exciting situation is before us. With the fall of the short-lived Labour minority government the British public goes to the polls on our first election under proportional representation, which should significantly change the make-up of the next parliament. So let see the latest polling averages on this first day of campaign:

Average Polls:

Conservative Party: 35%
Labour Party: 26%
Liberal Democrats: 22%
UKIP: 5%
Green Party: 3%
SNP: 3%
Others: 6%

Robinson: There it is, Theresa May’s Conservatives continue to lead in the polls despite having taken a few losses in the past months, leading in the range of 35%. Labour and the Lib Dems are behind and rather close to each other, Labour hurt by the party infighting after their latest leadership election and the Lib Dems facing a few losses after being part of the defunct coalition. Far behind you have UKIP, the Green Party and the SNP, all posing a credible threat to the major parties in certain regions but still far from winning too many MP’s.

What we can see is that Nick Clegg’s dramatic decision to pull the plug on the coalition has halted further bleeding of votes, again placing the Lib Dems on a strong position. With Prime Minister McDonnell as an underdog due to his unorthodox views, it seems the Conservatives haven’t yet consolidated as the clear alternative as Theresa May remains relatively unknown to the public due to little exposure. While anything other than a hung parliament looks virtually impossible, the campaign will be decisive.

Info from the GM:

1.- Turn: This turn lasts for 72 hours, ending on the afternoon of July 7th (Friday).

2.- Manifestos: During this turn each party must deliver its manifesto. I'll open a thread for your to post them (as explained in the rules, your six key proposals and nothing more). Manifestos will be scrutinized by the press and other parties, so be careful with what your promise.

3.- Random Events: Starting from next turn a random number generator for each party may determine good news or bad news, as has been the norm in other campaign games. If something particularly newsworthy happens a special news edition, reaction or newspaper editorial might appear.

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End of Turn One:

Cleggmania appears to be back as Clegg makes an impact

In the News:

The Guardian: Tough start for the Prime Minister

Despite launching quite an ambitious manifesto (leading to concerns about the cost of some of the Labour spending proposals) and taking the battle to Yorkshire, many appeared to have been disappointed by Mr. McDonnell's starting performance, buried under constant attacks and more visibility for Mrs. May and Mr. Clegg. A more interesting impact was brought by the brilliant performances of Chancellor Jeremy Corbyn and Home Secretary Lisa Nandy, whose performances both rallied their base in the North West of England and, particularly, give a needed boost to Labour in Scotland as the SNP has a disastrous first week. While Labour is on the retreat due to fire being focused from all sides, this could prevent a rise from a Green Party which has truly parked their tanks on Labour's ground...

Daily Telegraph: May goes all or nothing

We can claim with certainity that this first week of campaign was a victory for Theresa May. Launching a vocal pitch on the economy, Mrs. May has bravely thrown herself into the Labour heartlands to win voters who have never gone Tory before, and polling suggests she is beginning to succeed in the task of renewing her party's image. However, we on the Telegraph express out deepest concern about the evident turn towards the center by Mrs. May, including policies that cause us concern such as her bold plans for tuition fees and working class measures. Such a gamble could win the election for the Conservative Party, but also lose it for them.

The Independent: Cleggmania is back

Once again, Mr. Clegg has shown that he has a special quality to him matched by very few current politicians. Despite his involvement in the Brown coalition, his VONC against John McDonnell appears to have stop any damage for the Lib Dems, and an effective first week has seen both a compelling narrative, a responsible manifesto a strong pitch as why the Lib Dems should be considered a future serious party of government. We applaud and defend these measures as a proper reformist agenda for Britain, but we question whether Mr. Clegg is being entirely wise by scaling down past Lib Dem proposals on tuition fees. We could easily see parties such as the Greens or Labour exploting this, which can only lead to...

Daily Express: Nuttall tells it like it is

And just as the Conservatives prove once again too weak on the European Union and immigration, UKIP finally has a chance to make the Eurosceptic voice heard through the promise of a referendum. Reviled by many on British politics, Mr. Nuttall has nonetheless begun to strike a successful populist note with working class voters, particularly those who voted Labour before as UKIP launches a daring assault on the Labour heartlands of the North. While we believe Mr. Nuttall ought to be more outspoken on the campaign trail, his setpiece speech against Labour was a blistering indictement of a disastrous agenda for Britain held by the current Prime Minister...

Sunday Mail: Loony Nats aim for the Moon

Few parties have had such a starting election week as the SNP. Despite internal polling showing them within an inch of surpassing Labour across Scotland, the roll-out of the SNP manifesto by SNP Leader Alex Salmond has been widely derided for pledging independence within the next year, bringing back the poll tax to a substantial part of Scotland and, to the delight of Private Eye, the novel concept of an independent Scottish space program to put a man in the moon. Internal polling is already showing the SNP on the retreat in Scotland, particularly after a visit from the Home Secretary...

Belfast Telegraph: DUP, SF locked in bitter fight in Northern Ireland

Quite a fight is expected across Northern Ireland due to our new electoral system, with the last projections stating that the DUP, SF, SDLP, UUP, Alliance and the TUV would all win seats. Arlene Foster for the DUP and Gerry Adams for Sinn Fein have proved a strong presence across the region, both seeing rises in internal polling which would suggest that Northern Ireland is moving towards the two extremes. All in all, Mrs. Foster and the DUP are believed to have had the better performance on account of a bold manifesto, good organization and attacks on SF, the scenario beginning to shift as the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) is now believed to be under the 5% threshold needed to gain MP's.

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Turn Two:
The Debate Cometh

January 12th to January 19th, 2012

Dimbleby: Good evening, and welcome to our coverage of the 2012 General Election.

It's been a fascinating opening week for this general election campaign, with several parties launching their manifestos to scorn and praise from the media and the leaders starting to deploy what seems to be their own strategies. An interesting degree of hype surrounding the Lib Dem campaign has also emerged, with Nick Clegg surging as highly visible and effective force in the campaign trail alongside Theresa May, polling showing Mrs. May to be considered the more "prime-ministerial" of the three main leaders. Let's take a look at the poll average, and turn to Nick Robinson for more analysis:

Average Polls:

Conservative Party: 36% (+1)
Labour Party: 24% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 24% (+2)
UKIP: 7% (+2)
Green Party: 3%
SNP: 2% (-1)
Others: 4% (-2)

Robinson: Quite a fascinating poll, David, and one that is likely to turn up the heat on the campaigns. The Conservatives, Lib Dems and UKIP make significant gains moving forward as Labour and the SNP take a hit, the first due to fire being concentrated on Labour from the other parties, the SNP for what was considered a bad start for their campaign.

What national polling may not be picking up, however, is the interesting regional shifts that internal polling is showing. Among others, polling companies report that the Labour vote is holding out strong on places like London and Scotland, that the Green Party may be in track to gain MP's by being close to the threshold in the South East, that Sinn Fein and the DUP are tied for the leadership in Northern Ireland, and that UKIP may be doing better than expected across the North.

Random Events:

SDLP councilors defect to Sinn Fein:

Gerry Adams and Sinn Fein have recieved an unexpected boost at the start of the General Election campaign, a small group of SDLP local councilors announcing their defection to SF by arguing the party was better poised to defend the interests of a united Ireland, and giving a boost to the party as the main alternative to the rising Democratic Unionist Party.

SNP under trouble over Berwick-Upon-Tweed claim

The fallout over a less than auspicious start for the SNP campaign continues, particularly after SNP Leader Alex Salmond made a show of visiting the Berwick area to claim it had been stolen by the English. Far from a welcome reception, the move drew protest from local people inside the area, and protests by unionist groups inside Scotland as well. Mr. Salmond is understood to have recieved several threatening letters warning him not to return to Berwick, leading to further questions about his decision.

"We're back to the bloody seventies", says Labour MP

The first crack on the unity of the Labour Party during this campaign has appeared as a vocal anti-McDonnell Labour MP was caught by a microfone making a series of comments about the present state of the party, and speaking in harsh terms of both Mr. McDonnell and Chancellor Jeremy Corbyn. The gaffe was further consolidated when the Labour MP, understood to be gloomy about his reelection prospects, argued the party was "back to the seventies".[/i]

Info from the GM:

1.- Turn: This turn lasts for 72 hours, ending on the afternoon of July 11th (Tuesday).

2.- Debate: This turn we have a debate! All leaders are welcome to participate. Particpation is optional for Sinn Fein and the DUP, they won't be penalized if they don't show up. You'll answer a series of questions, and may use the chance to attack other leaders. Winner of the debate gets a reward of 20 CP, second place gets 10 CP.

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End of Turn Two:

As the Lib Dems take second place, the rise of UKIP threatens Labour and the Tories

In the News:

The Sun: Clegg and Foster strengthened by debate

The latest "Leader's Debate" drew significant attention and even reaction from the public, a memorable night in which several leaders made lasting impressions on the public eye. For the Liberal Democrats it was a personal triumph as Nick Clegg continued to press on hs message of change while delivering a crippling low on the Prime Minister, and for the Democratic Unionist Party their introduction to a wider audience across the UK proved a success as many found themselves wishing Mrs. Foster was part of a national party...

The Independent: Lib Dems jump to second place

Following a successful debate performance and skilled campaign efforts (which involved an effective use of online advertising) Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats are stunning the pollsters by surpassing Labour in all polls taken after the debate, placing them in second place for the first time in years. With internal polling placing the Lib Dems anywhere from a dozen to thirty seats ahead of Labour, political experts are starting to agree Mr. Clegg could very well become Leader of the Opposition, or even Prime Minister in the event of a dramatically hung parliament.

The Times: The Rise of UKIP

And while the surge of the Liberal Democrats at Labour's expense has captured most people's attention, the also steady rise of the UK Independence Party shouldn't be ignored by the major parties and indeed, the public. Led in populist style by Paul Nuttall (with able help from Nigel Farage) UKIP has scored significant points against Labour and the Conservatives, drawing disaffected working class Labour supporters and Eurosceptics disappointed of Mrs. May to climb his way into the thresholds across most of the nation, all while absorbing the BNP vote in the process. One must wonder how fast UKIP is rising, and what will that mean for the rest of the campaign.

Sunday Mail: SNP collapse in the polls, Clegg, May and McDonnell benefit

Already damaged by a questionable start to their campaign, the Scottish National Party was dealt further blows on account of a disappointing debate performance and a continued series of questionable claims and statements, which appeared to have caused quite the shift on Scottish polling. With the SNP believed to be falling below 20%, a shock flash poll by Lord Ashcroft shows the Conservatives rising to third place, with the Lib Dems closing on Labour. Many inside the SNP have already expressed their displeasure with their election campaign, leading us to wonder just what will happen in Scotland...

Belfast Telegraph: Northern Ireland polls show two-horse race, DUP ahead

The exposure generated by the debate performances of Arlene Foster and Gerry Adams has worked to be benefit of both the DUP and Sinn Fein as both parties continue to rise in the polls in Northern Ireland, mostly to the expense of the SDLP and the UUP.  Only five parties are believed to be in line to win seats in the region, and while the fight remains close between the DUP and Sinn Fein it appears that for the first time Mrs. Foster has developed a clear lead over Mr. Adams.

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Turn Three:
Mid-Point

January 20th to January 26th, 2012

Dimbleby: Good evening, and welcome to our coverage of the 2012 General Election.

This week we had the first of two Leader's Debates and some rather interesting strategies put in motion by other parties, a sign that our political system is trying to do its best to adapt to the realities of our new electoral system. With the Liberal Democrats and UKIP on the rise against the once dominant Conservatives and Labour, one must wonder just what result this campaign will yield. As the effects of the debate start to make themselves clear, lets go to Nick Robinson for our poll average:

Average Polls:

Conservative Party: 35% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 26% (+2)
Labour Party: 21% (-3)
UKIP: 9% (+2)
Green Party: 4% (+1)
SNP: 1% (-1)
Others: 4% (

Robinson: Well, David, it is quite stunning news for the major parties. The smaller parties such as the Lib Dems, the Greens and UKIP have seen a combined swing of 9% to them compared to the start of this campaign, something which could have major consecuences for Westminster as Nick Clegg jumps far ahead of Labour into second place and a direct challenger to Theresa May for who will be the next Prime Minister. While many don't count Labour out yet on account of a strong team behind John McDonnell, they'll need to react strongly to counter the threat of the Lib Dems, or the momentum behind Clegg could lead to their replacement as one of the two major parties.

But much like I warned last week, the average polls could be off on a couple of points, and it has been reported that regional swings are becoming more and more unpredictable as of today. For example, the latest ICM poll shows Theresa May making significant gains with centrist voters and in areas like Scotland and London, but those are not visible due to voters in Tory heartlands switching to UKIP and affecting the total. Labour continues to put up a strong fight across Scotland, the North and London, but its vote appears to be collapsing across the south. And while the Green Party is far behind across most of the country, concentrated efforts in London and South East might bear fruit and allow an interesting share of Green MP's to be elected there.

All in all, we'll see whether Labour and the Conservatives can put a stop to the minor parties this week.

Random Events:

Caroline Lucas enjoys welcoming reception in London:

The latest visit of Green Leader Caroline Lucas to London was an unusual success for the Green Party as several hundred people (most of them young voters) attended their events and even volunteered to help the party's efforts in the city. Many of them expressed their disaffection towards the Labour Party and their attraction to the Green manifesto and overall platform, providing a boost to Mrs. Lucas that might get her party closer to the threshold in the area.

Lib Dem MP Chris Huhne under fire over wife's claims

A potential scandal for the Lib Dems is developing as a story in The Mail on Sunday claims frontbencher Chris Huhne perverted the course of justice by pressuring people to take the driving licence penalty points of his wife in 2003, leading to a storm of media scrutiny towards Mr. Huhne. While the MP has denied the allegations, the Essex Police is understood to be discussing the situation with the Crown Prosecutinon Service to conduct an investigation.

Info from the GM:

1.- Turn: This turn lasts for 72 hours, ending on the afternoon of July 15th (Saturday).

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All out war between Lib Dems and Labour:

Andrew Marr: Good evening, I'm Andrew Marr, and here's an update on the General Election campaign. Following the latest Leader's Debate and some blistering attacks launched on the Prime Minister by Nick Clegg, the Labour Party has launched what seems like an all-out offensive to counter the rise of the Lib Dems, led in effectively brutal fashion by Jeremy Corbyn and Lisa Nandy and with effects starting to be picked up by internal polling.

Mr. Clegg, also under fire due to a developing story with MP Chris Huhne, has been attacked for "stealing Labour policies" by Mr. Corbyn and by Mrs. Nandy has being "out of touch". The Lib Dem leader has responded to critics in quick fashion by sacking Mr. Huhne and suspending him from the party, a move praised as "bold and decisive" by The Independent and "a show of backbone" by The Sun, but privately criticised by supporters of Mr. Huhne inside the party.

Nick Clegg has taken his case online and into Twitter, repeatedly attacking the Labour Party while promoting his own manifesto. It is unknown whether Mr. Clegg will take this rhetoric to the campaign trail and whether the Prime Minister himself will go on the attack, but flash polling shows that these series of attacks may have some interesting effects...

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End of Turn Three:

With the Lib Dems and Labour fighting for survival, Mrs. May emerges as a clear favorite

In the News:

The Sun: Theresa May, PM in waiting?

While the decisions made by Theresa May can be considered questionable on account of leaving her flank open to UKIP and a debate performance that failed to lead to a Tory surge, it appears the unlikely centrist and working-class message she has been promoting is finally being heard by the voters, who may be starting to tire of the bickering taking place between the Lib Dems and the Labour Party. Despite polling showing voters consider Mrs. May as "dull" or "not particularly exciting", she is now firmly leading on polls about who'd make the best Prime Minister. As the Conservatives firmly surpass their 2010 results in polling the question that most are asking is, is Mrs. May the next PM in waiting?

The Independent: Clegg is the leader for change

Despite the highly questionable nature of the attacks thrown at him by the cabinet, Mr. Clegg remains defiant and unwilling to fall to the operation launched from Downing Street to put an end to his meteoric rise during this election campaign. Proudly standing for relevant causes such as environmentalism, political reform and LGBT rights, Mr. Clegg continues to be every bit the leader and the voice of change across this campaign, a move which is justified by his daring sacking of Chris Huhne...

The Guardian: Progressive split in Britain

Voters who lean or vote to the left will find that this campaign poses an unlikely dilemma for them, particularly when taking into account what might have been expected of Mr. McDonnell's election as Labour Leader and Prime Minister. As Labour takes a surprisingly moderate stand amidst a disappointing campaign (which has nonetheless seen them stop their bleeding and showcase great talent on men like Owen Smith) the Lib Dems have marched to the left with a well planned effort and mostly effective performances, their momentum now halted by the Huhne scandal and painful attacks on Mr. Clegg. But which party will be the one to become the true voice of progressives?

The Telegraph: Mrs. May silences her critics, finds her voice

Many inside the Conservative Party harbored doubts regarding Mrs. May since her election, and many have also been critical of her strategic decisions for this campaign, including a manifesto that strayed away from Conservative orthodoxy into middle ground. Yet those same critics have been silenced in the past few days as Mrs. May has finally found her voice, showcasing a calm force that has seen her party finally break out in the polls and take a firm lead ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems. We commend the Conservative Leader on recovering for what seemed like a hard spot for a moment as the Lib Dems are contained and Labour regroups, but can she keep up the momentum?

Daily Express: Nuttall, man of the people

While Mrs. May has her own positive qualities, those have been overshadowed by the commitment of Paul Nuttall and UKIP towards several banners that must be defended in Britain, the first and foremost of those being staunch opposition to Brussels and the failings of the EU experiment. Making a successful run for former Labour and Tory voters (which we're told is what has prevented Labour from making gains this week) and giving Eurosceptics a voice Mr. Nuttall continues to earn support for the UK Independence Party, and one must wonder if UKIP will truly deliver a surprise on Election Night.

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Turn Four:
Back to the Debate Stage

January 27th to February 2nd, 2012

Dimbleby: Good evening, and welcome to our coverage of the 2012 General Election.

And what a week it's been. Prime Minister John McDonnell and the Labour Party have mounted a large-scale offensive against the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg, to far reaching consecuences for both parties. As the Conservatives march past their rivals to consolidate their lead the second and final debate is coming, in what should be a key opportunity for party leaders to make the case and hope for success. And here's Nick Robinson with the latest poll average:

Average Polls:

Conservative Party: 38% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 25% (-1)
Labour Party: 21%
UKIP: 10% (+1)
Green Party: 3% (-1)
SNP: 1%
Others: 2% (-2)

Robinson: It was a few days ago that we spoke about the apparent need for both the Conservatives and the Labour Party to fight back against the rise of the minor parties, and both did just that. Almost unscatched from the fight between Nick Clegg and John McDonnell, Theresa May's Conservatives have made some key ground by approaching 40%, all while UKIP continues to make some gains of their own and the vote share of smaller parties begins to collapse.

The story of the week has been the rivalry between the Lib Dems and the Labour Party, the results of which are somewhat hidden in the national polling. Private polling shows the attacks from Labour really made a dent on the Lib Dems and forced some significant damage on Mr. Clegg's approvals. Indeed, it seems the Lib Dems only avoided larger losses due a decisive performance on the Huhne scandal and due to a solid performance by Mr. Clegg and Mr. Cable, while at the same time bringing many Green leaning voters back to their camp.

Labour also made significant ground in some areas of the country, but this has been balanced out by continued losses to UKIP on account of issues like immigration and the EU and even to the Conservatives. Still, cabinet ministers like Owen Smith really made a name for themselves, and if Labour can keep up their attacks and follow them with more attractive promotion of their policies they could very well regain second place.

A lot will depend on the second debate, that is certain.

Info from the GM:

1.- Turn: This turn lasts for 72 hours, ending on the afternoon of July 19th (Wednesday).

2.- Debate: We have our second and last debate! All leaders are welcome to participate, but particpation is merely optional for the DUP. Winner of the debate gets a reward of 25 CP, second place gets 15 CP.

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The Independent: Corbyn under fire in Iran's Press TV leak:

Scandal has hit the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Corbyn today as reliable sources leaked to this paper that Mr. Corbyn may have accepted up to £15,000 from the Iranian state network Press TV, a network which has been systematically criticized for its extremely poor record in human rights. Indeed, Press TV has gone as far as airing a forced confession by Newsweek journalist Maziar Bahari, who stated to The Independent that he had indeed been tortured by government officials in Iran. While Mr. Corbyn is not related directly to this matter, he has been making appearances in Press TV since 2009, stopping shortly before becoming Chancellor in the McDonnell Government. Ofcom is reportedly considering banning Press TV in the UK, although the final decision rests with the Government...

BBC: Sir David Attenborough endorses Clegg for PM:

By far one of the most respected men in the UK and described as a "national treasure", broadcaster and naturalist Sir David Attenborough issued a statement today endorsing Nick Clegg for Prime Minister and making an open call to vote Liberal Democrat in the upcoming election. While Mr. Attenborough stated that he prefers to stay away from politics, he stressed his belief that Mr. Clegg and the Lib Dems would be a dynamic choice for a new government, noting that the time to act on environmental issues is now. Senior sources within the Lib Dems, aside from expressing joy at such as significant endorsement, have hinted that Sir David may be appearing in an upcoming Party Political Broadcast for the party.

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The Sun: Was Cyril Smith involved in child abuse?

Westminster has been rocked by further scandals today as explosive allegations emerge regarding the late Cyril Smith, former Liberal and Lib Dem MP for Rochdale and a high profile political figure. Senior and well connected sources in Westminster spread the rumour of Smith having taken part in several instances of sexual abuse to minors and leaked information regarding this to The Sun, the coverage of this stunning development taking over the news. Shockwaves are starting to be seen as the curent MP for Rochdale, Simon Danczuk, has already both expressed his suspicions that the claims are indeed true and called for a full, formal inquiry on the matter. On being pressed for further comment, Mr. Danczuk said that several alleged victims have already come forward to him to support these astounding claims.

While the family of Mr. Smith fiercely attacked these claims (noting they had only come forward too late for Smith to have a chance to defend himself), questions are now arising at whether a cover-up has been taking place regarding the late Liberal MP. How this will affect the ongoing election campaign remains to be seen.

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End of Turn Four:

As Clegg survives a barrage of attacks, is May's lead secure?

In the News:

The Sun: In May we Trust:

We endorsed the Conservative Party at the last election in a decision we do not regret, particularly after the disastrous record of the Coalition. Despite questionable decisions and a brief time as Conservative Leader Mrs. May has shown that she has what it takes to steer this nation through troubled waters, and we believe she'll make an excellent Prime Minister. Of John McDonnell we can say little more than the fact that it is already a disaster he is Prime Minister, and Nick Clegg, while impressive, still has the baggage of his party and his record in the Coalition behind him. In Theresa May we trust.

The Independent: Clegg rising on "preferred PM"

Decisive action on the highly controversial and sensitive case of Cyril Smith continues to prove Mr. Clegg has no tolerance for misbehavior, even if many inside the Liberal Democrats are criticizcing him for his decisions regarding Mr. Smith and Mr. Huhne. Despite Labour throwing the kitchen sink at the Lib Dem leader his approvals continue to rise after the latest debate, approaching Mrs. May to challenge her as the "preferred" choice for Prime Minister. If anything, this proves the curiousity of Nick Clegg being personally far more popular than the Lib Dems...

The Guardian: Vote Clegg for a progressive Britain

We've agonized in The Guardian over our endorsement for this General Election, even after endorsing Mr. Clegg in 2010. Last year we were encouraged by the election of John McDonnell as Prime Minister and we believed there was finally ground for the British left to flourish, but this election campaign has dashed those hopes. We've seen a Labour Party unclear on where it wants to go, and obsessed with attacking Nick Clegg above all. We've heard a populist tone with satisfaction, but it has not been enough. It is Nick Clegg who has taken the bold stances and the right policies in many areas, and while we have serious concerns about the scandal-ridden Lib Dems, we're clear that Clegg is the choice for a progressive Britain.

Daily Express: Vote UKIP, take back control

Mrs. May's pledge to stand tough on immigration is a welcomed development, and should the Conservatives enter government we will be vigilant to see that the job is done. But if you want to stand for true British values, look no further than the UK Independence Party. Paul Nuttall and Nigel Farage have taken this previously small party to increasing relevance with an effective campaign, targetining not only former Tory voters would appealing with great success to working class Labour supporters, feeling left behind after fifteen years of Labour rule. Only Mr. Nuttall can ensure the referendum on the EU we wish for.

Morning Star: It has to be Labour

For those of us firmly on the left of British politics, those of us who've suffered under the New Labour experiment of Blair and Brown, the Labour Party of John McDonnell is a welcomed sign that not all is lost. Moderate as some of their stances are, particularly those expressed by the Home Secretary, we embrace the combative nature of the Prime Minister, the Foreign Secretary and the Chancellor in portraying the Lib Dems as what they are: Tories in disguise. Only by voting Labour you can ensure that the rights of workers are properly respected, and see education and the NHS reformed for the greater good.

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Turn Five:
Endgame

February 3rd to February 9th, 2012

Dimbleby: Good evening, and welcome to our coverage of the 2012 General Election.

As Theresa May recovers on pasts performances to win the second Leader's Debate, the war between Labour and the Lib Dems reaches unforeseen levels as reports of press leaks between both parties take over Westminster, leading to dramatic allegations against Chancellor Jeremy Corbyn and the late Cyril Smith MP. The effect on the polls appears to have been profound, and as the last week is upon us it falls to the parties to make a strong closing to their campaigns. Let's go to Nick Robinson:

Average Polls:

Conservative Party: 40% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 27% (+2)
Labour Party: 19% (-2)
UKIP: 10%
Green Party: 2% (-1)
SNP: 1%
Others: 1% (-1)

Robinson: Astounding, isn't it? This poll average both reveals a lot and hides a lot of what is happening on the campaign trail. It is clear from the post-debate polls that the Conservatives enjoy a clear lead over their rivals, which could have led them to a reasonable landslide if this election was held under FPTP. What remains unclear is the exact situation of Labour and the Lib Dems. We've seen polls showing Nick Clegg reaching 30% and Labour crashing, just as we've seen polls showing Labour making a small comeback as the Lib Dems are pushed further back. Hence this shocking average, which would have the Lib Dems as the undisputed second party.

And what a tough week it's been for John McDonnell and Nick Clegg. The Labour Party's offensive against Clegg took a seemingly "no prisoners" approach, to the point that there's been clashes in public between MP's of both parties, and highly damaging press leaks. Mr. Clegg and his party have replied with a public relations machine behind them, dodging, deflecting or countering attacks with an effectiveness which reminded many of Tony Blair's heyday. And while the Lib Dems's approvals have taken a huge hit, it's Nick Clegg's personal popularity and this second coming of "Cleggmania" which is moving them ahead. Labour, on the other hand, has not addressed the attacks on the Chancellor in any way and has been seen as overtly negative, which appears to have hurt them greatly.

The picture is equally unclear on the regional level, but some trends that are noticeable is that the DUP is on course to triumph with Northern Ireland with about a third of the votes (which won't translate to many seats, however), and that the collapse of the Scottish National Party may have been halted thanks to Angus Robertson now that Mr. Salmond has taken a backseat in the campaign.

With election day approaching we must wonder, is the hype surrounding Mr. Clegg just hype? Is he closer to Number Ten than we suspect?

Info from the GM:

1.- Turn: This turn lasts for 72 hours, ending on the afternoon of July 24th (Monday). Then it's ELECTION NIGHT.

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Election Night 2012:

February 9th, 2012:

Dimbleby: (cont.) Yes, it's been a remarkable campaign, turned into sheer unpredictability after the events of the past few days. Westminster is still reeling after the shock sacking of Chancellor Jeremy Corbyn due to the Iranian scandal, which has sent shockwaves across the Labour Party and indeed, the nation. There's an air of triumphalism within the Conservatives and much hope within the Lib Dems, but it is only tonight that we'll learn what the results are.

BIG BEN STRIKES TEN

Dimbleby: Ten o'clock. Voting closes across Britain, and it's time to reveal our BBC Exit Poll. So here's our forecast, and what we're saying is that:

Dimbleby: It's a Hung Parliament, with the Conservative Party as the largest party. Let us look at the figures:

Conservative Party: 246 (-41)
Liberal Democrats: 212 (+140)
Labour Party: 111 (-152)
UKIP: 42 (+42)
SNP: 12 (+6)
Green Party: 3 (+2)
Others: 25 (+3)

Dimbleby: Quite astounding. Due to the nature of our new electoral system, the Conservatives would lose a substantial number of seats despite a clear lead on the popular vote, but nothing compared to the electoral collapse of the Labour Party, which would lose more than half their seats. The surprise of the night goes to the Lib Dems, who on those numbers would triple their seats and become the second largest party in Westminster, possibly the government, possibly the opposition. UKIP is also performing strongly, winning over 40 MP's to represent them at Westminster. We'll await the declaration of the North East to make a further projection.

[Lumine]

Who are the "Others" aside from the Northern Ireland seats?

Plaid Cymru. No other minor party or independent is expected to win seats on this exit poll.

[Lumine]

SOMETIME LATER

Dimbleby: (cont.) There you have it, reactions from Nigel Dodds of the DUP and Justine Greening from the Conservatives. Quite a stunning development what we continue to hear from Arlene Foster and her party, the news that the DUP might contest seats across the UK at the next General Election. We'll look into the implications of that with our panel later, but I hear the result of the North East region is coming:

NORTH EAST: 29 seats
Labour Party: 32% (10)
Conservative Party: 27% (8 )
Liberal Democrats: 25% (7)
UKIP: 13% (4)
Green Party: 2% (0)
Others: 1% (0)

LABOUR NARROWLY WINS IN THE NORTH EAST, PAUL NUTTALL ELECTED MP

Vine: Easily one of the most pro-Labour areas of the country, this appears like a sign of times to come, David. Under the new system Labour goes from having 25 MP's to just 10, a tough loss for a party which is already facing backlash. But more than strong showings by the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, the story of the night on this region is UKIP, with Paul Nuttall's populist message aimed at working class voters having brought its rewards. It seems many former Labour voters have defected to UKIP as they hit 13% on the region, up nearly 10%. And, of course, UKIP Leader Paul Nuttall makes history as the first elected UKIP MP.

Dimbleby: Sorry to cut you off there, Jeremy, results in Scotland are being declared at Edinburgh:

SCOTLAND: 59 seats
Labour Party: 30% (18)
Liberal Democrats: 26% (16)
Conservative Party: 25% (15)
Scottish National Party: 17% (10)
Green Party: 1% (0)
Others: 1% (0)

SNP FOURTH IN SCOTLAND, CONSERVATIVES WIN 15 MP's

Vine: After a stunning victory in Holyrood in 2011, many expected the Scottish National Party to soar, and the polls had them narrowly ahead at the start of this campaign. Still, a bitter night for the SNP as their failure to get their message across pushes them back to fourth place in Scotland despite winning 4 seats. One has to wonder for how long Mr. Salmond will remaind First Minister and SNP Leader. On an interesting upside to the Conservatives the new system brings them a comeback in Scotland, jumping from a single MP to over 15 in a stunning success for the new Scottish Conservative Leader Ruth Davidson. Labour is set to lose their domination of the region despite holding onto first place, losing over half their Scottish seats.

[Lumine]

SOMETIME LATER

Dimbleby: (cont.) Our Exit Poll may have been a bit off as some of the latest results show, overestimating the Lib Dems despite the collapse Labour is suffering. The next result is from Wales, so let's go to Cardiff:

WALES: 40 seats
Conservative Party: 29% (12)
Labour Party: 25% (12)
Liberal Democrats: 24% (10)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (5)
UKIP: 7% (3)
Green Party: 1% (0)
Others: 1% (0)

CONSERVATIVES CAPTURE WALES, EVEN SPLIT IN SEATS

Vine: And the collapse of the Labour vote in some areas of the country begins to manifest. Despite running more than ten points ahead of the Conservatives in 2010, Labour is pushed back to a close second as Theresa May achieves a historic win in the region. Labour loses more than half its MP's as UKIP, Plaid and the Lib Dems make significant gains. It seems the era of Wales as a stronghold for Labour may be over.

Dimbleby: The battlegrounds at the West and East Midlands are declaring now as well:

WEST MIDLANDS: 59 seats
Conservative Party: 44% (27)
Liberal Democrats: 24% (14)
Labour Party: 21% (13)
UKIP: 9% (5)
Green Party: 1% (0)
Others: 1% (0)

EAST MIDLANDS: 46 seats
Conservative Party: 44% (21)
Liberal Democrats: 26% (12)
Labour Party: 18% (8 )
UKIP: 10% (5)
Green Party: 1% (0)
Others: 1% (0)

CONSERVATIVES HOLD THE MIDLANDS, LIB DEMS SURGE

Vine: Key areas to win, the West and East Midlands were hotly contested during the campaign, and their results tell us a lot of what is happening. Compared to 2010 you can see the Conservative Party making clear gains in the popular vote, yet their share of MP's for these regions is significantly down due to the electoral system, which is also the case for Labour. Besides UKIP, which made a good impact on the area, the main benefit goes to the Lib Dems. From a mere 3 MP's on both regions they now have 26, which bodes well for them as they have become the main alternative to the Conservatives in this part of the country.

[Lumine]

SOMETIME LATER

Dimbleby: So what are we hearing from the parties, Nick?

Robinson: Conservatives have rushed to the airwaves as we speak to claim victory, David, and it's hard to say they're wrong. Clearly the electoral system will mean that the Conservatives won't be anywhere close to a majority, but with reports that they may have surpassed 40% of the vote it is hard to say that Theresa May has not "won" the election. You can also hear the cries of despair from Labour, and interestingly, the cries of joy from the Lib Dems at the fact that they've finally broken through.

Kuenssberg: At the end of the night the Lib Dems will be the second largest party even if our Exit Poll was somewhat off, and Nick Clegg may yet become Prime Minister depending on the numbers. Must be quite a night for them.

EAST OF ENGLAND: 40 seats
Conservative Party: 52% (31)
Liberal Democrats: 28% (17)
UKIP: 11% (7)
Labour Party: 7% (3)
Green Party: 1% (0)
Others: 1% (0)

LABOUR COLLAPSE IN EAST OF ENGLAND, UKIP RISES TO THIRD

Vine: Astounding, isn't it? The Conservatives break 50% on this stronghold of them, but lose almost twenty seats due to the proportional system. The Lib Dems consolidate as the alternative here by being close to 30% and winning a dozen of seats, and virtually two-thirds of the Labour voters have disappeared. It is clear John McDonnell isn't the type of leader to appeal to this region of the country, but it seems Paul Nuttall's emphasis on working class voters may have worked far better than expected. Rather than seeing Conservative voters defect in massive numbers, it may be Labour voters concerned about immigration that are deserting to vote UKIP.

Dimbleby: And here is London as well, with quite a surprise as I'm being told:

LONDON: 73 seats
Conservative Party: 39% (29)
Liberal Democrats: 31% (23)
Labour Party: 22% (17)
Green Party: 5% (4)
UKIP: 2% (0)
Others: 1% (0)

CONSERVATIVES AND LIB DEMS BATTLE FOR LONDON, GREENS TAKE SEATS

Vine: If there was a sign of the success of Nick Clegg a capturing former Labour voters, this is it. While Theresa May has gained a few points on a reasonable swing to win in London, the story here is the large-scale surge of the Lib Dems across the city all the way to more than 30%, making significant gains in terms of seats on Labour's expense as the Conservative make a couple of gains. With UKIP shut out of the city, the Greens deliver on an unexpected surprise by barely making the threshold, adding 4 MP's to their current representation. Polls appeared to have underestimated the Green vote in the city, and Caroline Lucas must be quite happy right now.

[Lumine]

SOMETIME LATER

Vine: Clearly the next House of Commons will be quite hard for whoever becomes the next Prime Minister. The door seems closed for Mr. McDonnell and the Labour Party, leaving us with three options to speculate on as results continue to come in. With the Conservatives having clearly won the popular vote by a large margin Theresa May could very well become Prime Minister, but would either have to lead a minority government or form a coalition with UKIP and the Unionist parties, which might not have a majority. Nick Clegg could also have a go if the Lib Dems do as well as the exit poll suggests, but for that he'd need both to bring Labour on board and also recruit some of the smaller parties in a "progressive alliance". Finally, the possibility of the Lib Dems and the Conservatives making a deal could be an interesting one, if unlikely to happen.

NORTH WEST: 75 seats
Conservative Party: 36% (29)
Labour Party: 28% (21)
Liberal Democrats: 23% (18)
UKIP: 9% (7)
Green Party: 1% (0)
Others: 1% (0)

CONSERVATIVES TAKE THE NORTH WEST, LIB DEMS UNDERPERFORM

YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER: 54 seats
Conservative Party: 38% (21)
Labour Party: 27% (15)
Liberal Democrats: 25% (14)
UKIP: 8% (4)
Green Party: 1% (0)
Others: 1% (0)

LABOUR DOWN IN YORKSHIRE, CLEGG RE-ELECTED

SOUTH WEST: 55 seats
Conservative Party: 43% (24)
Liberal Democrats: 41% (23)
UKIP: 8% (5)
Labour Party: 6% (3)
Green Party: 1% (0)
Others: 1% (0)

LIB DEM SURGE ACROSS SOUTH WEST, LABOUR COLLAPSE

Kuenssberg: I think what's becoming clear is just how regional swings are affecting the results. For example, you can see Labour remains a strong force in the North and in Scotland, but they are simply evaporating in places like the East of England and the South West as the Lib Dems rise. Indeed, Nick Clegg got very close to beating May for first place in the South West. I think we can safely assume the Exit Poll got the places right, but it underestimated Labour and the Conservatives to overestimate the Lib Dem surge.

Robinson: Still, at least this time their surge materialized more strongly. Unlike 2010, this should not be a disappointment for the Lib Dems at all. For the first time in ninety years, they'll be one of the two major parties.

Dimbleby: It's morning already, and there's only two more regions to go: the South East of England and, of course, the hotly contested Northern Ireland. Stay tuned.

[Lumine]

AROUND NOON

Dimbleby: It has been a very long and exciting night, and finally the Northern Ireland results are being declared at Belfast:

NORTHERN IRELAND: 18 seats
Democratic Unionist Party: 35% (7)
Sinn Fein: 27% (5)
Social Democratic and Labour Party: 14% (3)
Ulster Unionist Party: 11% (2)
Alliance Party: 6% (1)
Traditional Unionist Voice: 2% (0)
Others: 5% (0)

DUP TRIUMPHS IN NORTHERN IRELAND, SINN FEIN FALLS BEHIND

SOUTH EAST: 84 seats
Conservative Party: 49% (42)
Liberal Democrats: 27% (23)
UKIP: 11% (9)
Green Party: 6% (5)
Labour Party: 6% (5)
Others: 1% (0)

THERESA MAY RE-ELECTED, GREENS SURPASS LABOUR IN THE SOUTH EAST

Robinson: And that is the last results. As predicted the DUP swings to a strong performance across Northern Ireland after a brilliant campaign by Arlene Foster, and in the South East the Conservatives continue to dominate despite losing two dozen seats to the new electoral system. The Greens can also be quite pleased with this performance, jumping to fourth place ahead of Labour with 4 new MP's joining Caroline Lucas in the region.

Kuenssberg: It seems inevitable that Mrs. May will be called to form a government very soon, as John McDonnell has lost all chance of remaining as Prime Minister. Whether he resigns the Labour leadership or not will be interesting, just as the fate of Alex Salmond as First Minister is fully uncertain. The negotiating process will likely be far more complex and difficult than what 2010 was, so it seems British politics will continue to take a dramatic turn.

Dimbleby: And on that note we end our coverage of Election Night 2012. Thank you, and good night.

THE END

[Lumine]

General Election 2012, Results:

Popular Vote (without Northern Ireland)

Conservative Party: 40.4%
Liberal Democrats: 28.5%
Labour Party: 18.6%
UKIP: 7.8%
Green Party: 2.4%
SNP: 1.4%
Others: 0.9%

Seats:

Conservative Party: 259
Liberal Democrats: 177
Labour Party: 123
UKIP: 49
SNP: 10
Green Party: 9
DUP: 7
Sinn Fein: 5
SDLP: 3
UUP: 2
Alliance: 1