MI-Senate 2018

[Young Conservative]

I couldn't find a thread for this, so I made one. Here are the basics of the race:

Democrats


Senator Debbie Stabenow was first elected to the senate in 2000 narrowly, however, she had previously served in the House for several years. In total, she has been an elected official since 1979. She was easily reelected to the senate in 2006 and 2012. She is unlikely to face any primary challenge

http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Debbie_Stabenow.htm

According to her issue statements and voting record, she is solidly liberal.

Republicans


Judge Bob Young is a former Chief Justice of the Michigan Supreme Justice. He left office in January of 2017. He was on the shortlist for President Trump's SCOTUS nomination. He announced his plans to run from the location of his childhood home in Detroit. He was elected to the Chief Justiceship an "unprecedented" 3 times and is one of only four African Americans to have ever served on the Michigan Supreme Court.

http://www.bobyoungformichigan.com/

Lena Epstein is an automotive exec at a 3rd generation family run Michigan distributor. She was the co-chair of the Trump Campaign in Michigan. Her website's headline is "Unapologetically Pro Trump."

https://lenaforsenate.com/

State Overview


Michigan's CPVI is D +1 and President Trump narrowly won it by 10,704 votes or a margin of .23%.
The last Republican to serve as a US Senator from Michigan was Spencer Abraham, defeated by Stabenow in 2000. The primary issues likely to drive the campaign in Michigan are President Trump, trade, agriculture, immigration, and healthcare.

Please post updates about the race to this thread and comment your thoughts about who could realistically challenge Senator Stabenow if such a person exists.

[I’m not Stu]

Stabenow has a primary challenger, Craig Allen Smith, but Stabenow will easily defeat Smith because he's not a high-profile serious challenger.

[MarkD]

To clarify a couple of facts ....

I couldn't find a thread for this, so I made one. Here are the basics of the race:

Democrats


Senator Debbie Stabenow was first elected to the senate in 2000 narrowly, however, she had previously served in the House for several years. In total, she has been an elected official since 1979. She was easily reelected to the senate in 2006 and 2012. She is unlikely to face any primary challenge

http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Debbie_Stabenow.htm

According to her issue statements and voting record, she is solidly liberal.

Stabenow served four years in the U.S. House. Prior to that, her first elected office was to a county government position -- Ingham County Board of Commissioners -- in 1974. She served four years there, followed by twelve years in the Michigan House of Representatives, and four years in the Michigan Senate. She lost the Democratic primary for Governor in 1994, but won her first of two terms in the U.S. House two years later.

I do agree that she has a solidly liberal voting record. Her approval ratings from Americans for Democratic Action have, for the years 1997 to 2015, been an average of 95.25% (for some reason, ADA has not yet published their approval scores for last year).
http://www.adaction.org/pages/publications/voting-records.php

I don't think any Republican can beat her. Judge Young would certainly be an interesting match, and has the potential of doing better than her 2006 and 2012 opponents, but I think there is very little chance of he or anyone else getting with 4 points of her.

[jamestroll]

Stabenow really is not battle tested and could go down in a Republican wave if she sleep walks and has a good opponent.

2018 is not likely to be a GOP wave.

Her opponent seems credible.

Whether or not she sleep walks is too early too see.

I would not initially discount this race for the GOP but they have an uphill battle. Why so many people have Stabenow as an underdog or DOA just because Trump won Michigan is beyond me.

[Young Conservative]

Stabenow really is not battle tested and could go down in a Republican wave if she sleep walks and has a good opponent.

2018 is not likely to be a GOP wave.

Her opponent seems credible.

Whether or not she sleep walks is too early too see.

I would not initially discount this race for the GOP but they have an uphill battle. Why so many people have Stabenow as an underdog or DOA just because Trump won Michigan is beyond me.

Well, she was effective in close race in 2000. However, comparing 2000 Michigan politics to 2018 really doesn't work anymore. I agree. If she wants to win, she will actually need to campaign vigorously this time. Also,  I think stabenow is generally regarded as likely to win. I have not heard anyone call her dead on arrival. she is clearly the favorite.

[jamestroll]

Stabenow really is not battle tested and could go down in a Republican wave if she sleep walks and has a good opponent.

2018 is not likely to be a GOP wave.

Her opponent seems credible.

Whether or not she sleep walks is too early too see.

I would not initially discount this race for the GOP but they have an uphill battle. Why so many people have Stabenow as an underdog or DOA just because Trump won Michigan is beyond me.

Well, she was effective in close race in 2000. However, comparing 2000 Michigan politics to 2018 really doesn't work anymore. I agree. If she wants to win, she will actually need to campaign vigorously this time. Also,  I think stabenow is generally regarded as likely to win. I have not heard anyone call her dead on arrival. she is clearly the favorite.

Oh she will have to campaign for sure this time. It is mind boggling why everyone had Michigan as solid Democratic for President in 2016 considering results in the state in 2010 and 2014 and how the race in 2004 for President was shaky for Democrats at best. But I think a competent campaign should give Stabenow a good margin and a vigorous campaign should give her a solid margin.

And yes several people do have Stabenow as the underdog! I have even seen people on this site say the Democrats will lose 100 house seats next year!!!

[I’m not Stu]

I would rate the race likely D.

[Skunk]

Aren't some people trying to get Kid Rock to run? Likely D.

[UncleSam]

Somewhere between lean and likely D, Stabenaw will probably have a tougher time than most here realize but if it's a particularly bad year for Republicans I doubt anyone beats her. Young is a credible challenger who could cut into her margin in Wayne significantly but he lacks the ability to win big in the rural areas, Macomb, or Kent.

I think funnily enough Kid Rock would be a pretty strong candidate if he can speak well (who knows on that front though). He's popular with high name ID and impossible to paint as a Plutocrat even if he might actually be one lol

Dems shouldn't sleep on this race, but so long as they don't I doubt they will lose in the end.

[Gass3268]

Her race in 2012 was supposed to be competitive, until the Debbie "Spend It Now" ad.

[_]

This Young guy seems like a decent Candidate, still Likely D, but if polling shows the race within 7 i'll move it to lean.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would rate the race likely D.

[NewYorkExpress]

Lean D for now. Democrats would be incredibly stupid to take this race for granted, and I believe there is a lot more "upset" potential here than in PA. Running a more "Trumpist" wave insurance candidate and not some random boring "generic Republican" seems like the best option for the GOP in MI IMO.

That being said, I think there is an 80%-85% chance that this race is a very easy double digit win for Stabenow and maybe a 15% chance or so that it goes down to the wire. Nothing in between. That's just my gut feeling, and I could be wrong of course.

Pennsylvania's more likely to be a loss for Democrats, since Casey never seems to take his opponents seriously, and if Barletta gets in he well could lose. As for Stabenow, it would probably take Schuettte deciding to run here instead for Governor for this race to be seriously competitive. In that scenario I'd give Stabenow a slight edge, but it's definitely possible she'd lose then.

[vanguard96]

Per yesterday's Detroit News - John James has formed an exploratory committee to consider running for Senate against Stabenow:

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/07/18/john-james-republican-senate-stabenow-businessman/103787684/

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Iraq war veteran - is he a young Ben Carson type? Not sure.

[Xing]

Likely D, Safe D if Kid Rock is her opponent. Stabenow's vulnerability seems to be overrated every cycle.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean D for now. Democrats would be incredibly stupid to take this race for granted, and I believe there is a lot more "upset" potential here than in PA. Running a more "Trumpist" wave insurance candidate and not some random boring "generic Republican" seems like the best option for the GOP in MI IMO.

That being said, I think there is an 80%-85% chance that this race is a very easy double digit win for Stabenow and maybe a 15% chance or so that it goes down to the wire. Nothing in between. That's just my gut feeling, and I could be wrong of course.

I think this race is safe D (regardless of what Kid Rock does) and the PA Senate race probably is too, tbh.

[Pericles]

Kid Rock is worrying as he is a lot like Trump and could be the one candidate who energizes Michigan GOP voters and harms Stabenow. However at the same time Stabenow is no Hillary Clinton and I doubt Michigan will make the same mistake twice, it is most likely that Stabenow the effective politician will blow Kid Rock out of the water. But after Trump, I will not take Kid Rock as a joke. It isn't funny.

[I’m not Stu]

Kid Rock is less charismatic than Trump. Stabenow is a fairly strong incumbent.

[Ebsy]

Lena Epstein is out, likely going to run for MI-11. Would be shocked if Upton doesn't get in at this point.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Look, I know Stabenow is favored, but you have to understand that President Trump carried Michigan in an election that was probably much higher-turnout than this midterm will be.

[Heisenberg]

Upton getting serious about running.

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[RogueBeaver]

Upton getting cold feet partially due to Bannon, partially the race's difficulty. Crappy fundraising from James and Young so far.

[Jeppe]

It looks like Kid Rock isn't actually going to run. Right now, I'd say the race is Likely D, but if Fred Upton stays on the sidelines, it'll be safe D.

Stabenow has an enormous warchest of $7.8 million, it'll be hard for even Upton to match that kind of money.

[RogueBeaver]

Kid Rock confirms he's out.

[TheSaint250]

Kid Rock confirms he's out.

Now how will we beat Stabenow?!?!?!?! /s