AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Virginiá]

Holy smokes!

[Kamala]

So if Ward wins the primary, will both of Arizona’s senators endorse Sinema?

[IceSpear]

But remember everyone. Like RINO Tom tells us, most Republicans are not like Trump! He was just a one off thing! It's just a coincidence that any Republican who criticizes Trump becomes toxic and is cast out of the party! Really!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Ebsy]

D+1.

[UncleSam]

Not that surprising, though definitely big news.

I'm not sure whether this helps or hurts Sinema's chances - on the one hand, it makes this a guaranteed open seat race in a cycle without a ton of targets, guaranteeing her good fundraising. On the other hand, it actually decreases the odds she faces a toxic GOP nominee (Ward's chances go down once others get into the race, and Flake obviously won't be her opponent), so it's probably a wash.

This is probably good news for the country though, if it means that Kelli Ward will have a worse chance of winning the nomination and therefore a worse chance of becoming a US senator.

[Cactus Jack]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbtUGsEIAkA

Color little Arizonan me thoroughly shocked and awed. I never thought he would do it. I'm pretty sure this clears the field for Ward, since all the remaining high-profile candidates are either fellow Trumpists and Tea Partiers or Martha McSally, who I'm almost certain is waiting for McCain's seat to open.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It will be interesting to see if Flake now starts publicly criticizing Trump the way Corker has.

[KingSweden]

Holy sh*t

[Oryxslayer]

Only benefits Pubs - now they are not stuck with the choice of the Unpopular Reverse-Trangulator, and the Chemtrail researcher. But perhaps there isn't enough time for another candidate to build an organization to challenge Kelly, though I doubt it. McSally might now take the plunge, though I expect shes holding out for the McCain retirement.

[MT Treasurer]

I never expected Flake to implode like that. Good riddance!

(Still think NV flips before AZ, though.)

[Santander]

But remember everyone. Like RINO Tom tells us, most Republicans are not like Trump! He was just a one off thing! It's just a coincidence that any Republican who criticizes Trump becomes toxic and is cast out of the party! Really!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wow. Was not expecting that.

Rating moves from Toss-Up to Lean D, though I'll reconsider if an alternative establishment candidate enters, and my endorsement remains up for grabs. Arizona's senate primary isn't until August '18.

[Ye We Can]

Probably another R will get in at least, so less chance of Ward winning.

[Virginiá]

Wow. Was not expecting that.

Rating moves from Toss-Up to Lean D, though I'll reconsider if an alternative establishment candidate enters, and my endorsement remains up for grabs. Arizona's senate primary isn't until August '18.

I expect the fight for this to be quite vicious

[Keep cool-idge]

Everyone this is good news both flake and ward were garbage candidates. I honestly think it goes from Toss up to lean/likely republican.

[Wiz in Wis]

Martha McSally would be an obvious choice... but then that house race shifts more D.

[Ye We Can]

I still think another R will get in. Not like Blackburn has a clear field so likely someone else will get in.

[_]

Well this is huge.

This helps the Rs imo.  Moves the race from Tilt/Lean D back to Tossup/Tilt D.

[Cactus Jack]

Wow. Was not expecting that.

Rating moves from Toss-Up to Lean D, though I'll reconsider if an alternative establishment candidate enters, and my endorsement remains up for grabs. Arizona's senate primary isn't until August '18.

That may be premature. It was getting to the point that Flake was almost the worse GE candidate, and the guarantee of a brutal Republican primary was part of what gave Sinema such a good chance. Now, unless a credible establishment Republican jumps in, Ward is going to sail to the GE just as easily as Sinema and end up in better shape for it (at least relatively; I don't think Kelli F**king Ward will ever actually be in good shape in this state).

[GeorgiaModerate]

It will be interesting to see if Flake now starts publicly criticizing Trump the way Corker has.

From what I'm hearing about Flake's speech on the Senate floor, this didn't take long to answer.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wow. Was not expecting that.

Rating moves from Toss-Up to Lean D, though I'll reconsider if an alternative establishment candidate enters, and my endorsement remains up for grabs. Arizona's senate primary isn't until August '18.

That may be premature. It was getting to the point that Flake was almost the worse GE candidate, and the guarantee of a brutal Republican primary was part of what gave Sinema such a good chance. Now, unless a credible establishment Republican jumps in, Ward is going to sail to the GE just as easily as Sinema and end up in better shape for it (at least relatively; I don't think Kelli F**king Ward will ever actually be in good shape in this state).

I am treating the race as Sinema vs. Ward, which is a Lean D race, unless and until someone establishment jumps in.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I don't actually think this necessarily reduces Ward's chances since she's the one who's most attuned to the GOP primary electorate. which speaks numbers to what a mess the GOP is currently in as a party.

Lean D.

[QAnonKelly]

AZ Leaning D? You know what this means for 2018?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uysp-0E5wD8

[Keep cool-idge]

Wow. Was not expecting that.

Rating moves from Toss-Up to Lean D, though I'll reconsider if an alternative establishment candidate enters, and my endorsement remains up for grabs. Arizona's senate primary isn't until August '18.

That may be premature. It was getting to the point that Flake was almost the worse GE candidate, and the guarantee of a brutal Republican primary was part of what gave Sinema such a good chance. Now, unless a credible establishment Republican jumps in, Ward is going to sail to the GE just as easily as Sinema and end up in better shape for it (at least relatively; I don't think Kelli F**king Ward will ever actually be in good shape in this state).

I am treating the race as Sinema vs. Ward, which is a Lean D race, unless and until someone establishment jumps in.

[Oryxslayer]

Martha McSally would be an obvious choice... but then that house race shifts more D.

Good luck to her winning a primary though

She is waiting for McCain to retire and call upon her to be his successor.

This is good news for Republicans since someone else is naturally going to hop in the race. This person will not be a conspiracy theorist and not be the most unpopular senator in the country, so they already start out better then either past candidate. Sinema's chances go down now that she probably won't be facing such a horrible opponent.