AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[QAnonKelly]

Let's just say Heller isn't the most vulnerable anymore.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

52%. For comparison, I have Rosen at 55%.

[The Mikado]

I think the GOP has totally screwed the pooch on this one. Ward might well win the primary, which will make the race even tougher for them.


Of course, even with he Dems picking up both NV and AZ, the GOP could balance that out by winning on Dem turf, but I'd say that the Dems have a good chance of at least going neutral or +1 (I'm assuming MO-SEN is a likely GOP pickup) if they pick up those two seats, which is far better than they have any reason to hope for.

[jamestroll]

I think the GOP has totally screwed the pooch on this one. Ward might well win the primary, which will make the race even tougher for them.


Of course, even with he Dems picking up both NV and AZ, the GOP could balance that out by winning on Dem turf, but I'd say that the Dems have a good chance of at least going neutral or +1 (I'm assuming MO-SEN is a likely GOP pickup) if they pick up those two seats, which is far better than they have any reason to hope for.

I completely agree with you here. Also MO-Sen has pretty much become a laughable self-fulfilling prophecy.

Arizona is becoming much easier compared to what early conventional wisdom suggested and Heller is looking less dead on arrival than expected but Democrats should win it but not take it for granted.

[Virginiá]

I think the GOP has totally screwed the pooch on this one. Ward might well win the primary, which will make the race even tougher for them.


Of course, even with he Dems picking up both NV and AZ, the GOP could balance that out by winning on Dem turf, but I'd say that the Dems have a good chance of at least going neutral or +1 (I'm assuming MO-SEN is a likely GOP pickup) if they pick up those two seats, which is far better than they have any reason to hope for.

Strategically speaking, the best chance the GOP would have had in making huge gains would have been to back off and let Hillary take the White House (assuming they had that much control - they didn't). Any midterm under a Republican president would make large gains difficult, as you can't expect elections like 2002 to happen again. Midterms are just too favorable to out-party incumbents. If Hillary had won, Republicans could have capitalized on a extremely favorable map and possibly built a Senate supermajority by 2020, along with locking down control of redistricting en masse for the 2020s. The early 2020s could have seen a deluge of conservative policy under a competent Republican president. Oh well!

Of course, I guess some would say the presidency is worth losing all that, but in this particular instance I would have to disagree. Winning the White House this time is a curse that Republicans will regret for a long, long time.

[kyc0705]

So Flake set up this: http://www.socialistsinema.com

Socialist Cinema is my favorite phase of Jean-Luc Godard's career.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Outside the box question for people more in the know than me: if Ward beats Flake in the primary, is there any chance Flake pulls a Murkowski and runs in the general anyways as an Indy? Are there sore loser ballot restrictions in AZ that would prevent it?

[BudgieForce]

Outside the box question for people more in the know than me: if Ward beats Flake in the primary, is there any chance Flake pulls a Murkowski and runs in the general anyways as an Indy? Are there sore loser ballot restrictions in AZ that would prevent it?

Murkowski didn't run as an independent though, she ran as a write-in. There is a spot for a write-in on the Arizona ballot but I doubt Flake would be anywhere near as successful. He'd split the republican vote which would allow Sinema to win easily, especially since the democratic party is much stronger in Arizona than it is in Alaska.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Outside the box question for people more in the know than me: if Ward beats Flake in the primary, is there any chance Flake pulls a Murkowski and runs in the general anyways as an Indy? Are there sore loser ballot restrictions in AZ that would prevent it?

Murkowski didn't run as an independent though, she ran as a write-in. There is a spot for a write-in on the Arizona ballot but I doubt Flake would be anywhere near as successful. He'd split the republican vote which would allow Sinema to win easily, especially since the democratic party is much stronger in Arizona than it is in Alaska.

Yeah, this. It worked for Murkowski because she was able to attract even moderate Ds to her candidacy. That would never happen with Flake.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Outside the box question for people more in the know than me: if Ward beats Flake in the primary, is there any chance Flake pulls a Murkowski and runs in the general anyways as an Indy? Are there sore loser ballot restrictions in AZ that would prevent it?

Murkowski didn't run as an independent though, she ran as a write-in. There is a spot for a write-in on the Arizona ballot but I doubt Flake would be anywhere near as successful. He'd split the republican vote which would allow Sinema to win easily, especially since the democratic party is much stronger in Arizona than it is in Alaska.

Yeah, this. It worked for Murkowski because she was able to attract even moderate Ds to her candidacy. That would never happen with Flake.

Thanks, to both of you.

[Kingpoleon]

While I still think Napolitano or Giffords would be a stronger candidate, I'd give Sinema a 50/50 shot.

[Pollster]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

[The Other Castro]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

Very professional looking!

[Doimper]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

Huh, those are some solid numbers for Sinema. Especially since you'd think that undecideds forced into making a choice would go for the incumbent.

[Cactus Jack]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

If those numbers play out, Flake is even deader than I thought he was.

[adrac]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

Color me skeptical on the age cross-tabs.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

LOL @ Sinema getting 39% of Republicans. GCS continues to be a joke.

[Cactus Jack]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

LOL @ Sinema getting 39% of Republicans. GCS continues to be a joke.

Maybe, but if that poll is within even 10% of being correct, then Flake's career is still over.

[Webnicz]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

LOL @ Sinema getting 39% of Republicans. GCS continues to be a joke.

I wouldn't be shocked if she got 20%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

While I still think Napolitano or Giffords would be a stronger candidate, I'd give Sinema a 50/50 shot.

More like 60/40 since Ward will probably be the nominee.

[TheSaint250]

While I still think Napolitano or Giffords would be a stronger candidate, I'd give Sinema a 50/50 shot.

More like 60/40 since Ward will probably be the nominee.

If Ward is the nominee, it's 70-30 at least imo.

[BuckeyeNut]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

Color me skeptical on the age cross-tabs.

Same. Though appreciate your analysis, Pollster.

[ajc0918]

While I still think Napolitano or Giffords would be a stronger candidate, I'd give Sinema a 50/50 shot.

More like 60/40 since Ward will probably be the nominee.

If Ward is the nominee, it's 70-30 at least imo.

Is Ward really that disliked? I don't know much about her

[TheSaint250]

While I still think Napolitano or Giffords would be a stronger candidate, I'd give Sinema a 50/50 shot.

More like 60/40 since Ward will probably be the nominee.

If Ward is the nominee, it's 70-30 at least imo.

Is Ward really that disliked? I don't know much about her

Pretty much. She's kinda like Christine O'Donnell (Delaware, 2008 & 2010) and Sharron Angle (Nevada, 2010), all Tea Partiers.

[Cactus Jack]

While I still think Napolitano or Giffords would be a stronger candidate, I'd give Sinema a 50/50 shot.

More like 60/40 since Ward will probably be the nominee.

If Ward is the nominee, it's 70-30 at least imo.

Is Ward really that disliked? I don't know much about her

Pretty much. She's kinda like Christine O'Donnell (Delaware, 2008 & 2010) and Sharron Angle (Nevada, 2010), all Tea Partiers.

Basically this. Ward is absolutely loathed statewide and has a reputation for being a decorated officer of the tinfoil hat brigade.