AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Webnicz]

While I still think Napolitano or Giffords would be a stronger candidate, I'd give Sinema a 50/50 shot.

More like 60/40 since Ward will probably be the nominee.

If Ward is the nominee, it's 70-30 at least imo.

Is Ward really that disliked? I don't know much about her

Pretty much. She's kinda like Christine O'Donnell (Delaware, 2008 & 2010) and Sharron Angle (Nevada, 2010), all Tea Partiers.

Basically this. Ward is absolutely loathed statewide and has a reputation for being a decorated officer of the tinfoil hat brigade.

Agreed. The most interesting thing I've read so far is that Ward is being taken more seriously this time around by the GOP and by voters. Mccain ignored her and never mentioned her and refused a debate, lake won't be able to do that since she's a serious deal this go around

[Webnicz]

Anybody else notice the Flake camp still hasn't released any internal numbers like Heller did? this likely means that even their internals are looking bad

[Canis]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

Is their anyway to see what areas your polling from cause it good be a lot of people from Phoenix or Tucson

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Anybody else notice the Flake camp still hasn't released any internal numbers like Heller did? this likely means that even their internals are looking bad

I can only imagine that he's getting creamed. He only has a 19% approval rating after all.

[Webnicz]

Kelli Ward is a more serious contender than everyone believed. I said earlier but this confirms, Ward is being taken more seriously this time around than in '16.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/355044-exclusive-flake-primary-challenger-passes-1-million-in-fundraising-for-2017

[Webnicz]

Sinema MATCHED Flake on fundraising in Q3 (a report that was due just 2 days after she announced her senate intentions) largely meaning she will be out raising Flake for the majority of Financial quarters in this race. Even Kirkpatrick managed to out fundraise McCain during two financial quarters if memory serves.

Sinema has roughly 5.5x more cash on hand than what Kirkpatrick had at this point, and running against an opponent that has a third the name recognition and donor base & just sucks at fundraising in general.

Sinema is waaaaaaaay stronger than Rosen

[Cactus Jack]

Sinema MATCHED Flake on fundraising in Q3 (a report that was due just 2 days after she announced her senate intentions) largely meaning she will be out raising Flake for the majority of Financial quarters in this race. Even Kirkpatrick managed to out fundraise McCain during two financial quarters if memory serves.

Sinema has roughly 5.5x more cash on hand than what Kirkpatrick had at this point, and running against an opponent that has a third the name recognition and donor base & just sucks at fundraising in general.

Sinema is waaaaaaaay stronger than Rosen

Yeah, this confirms my suspicions. Sinema is a master political operator, and she wouldn't have jumped into this race if she hadn't smelled blood in the water. The truth of the matter is that, as a candidate, she outstrips Flake and Ward in every category: charisma, campaigning, and cash.

[Webnicz]

Kelli Ward is a more serious contender than everyone believed. I said earlier but this confirms, Ward is being taken more seriously this time around than in '16.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/355044-exclusive-flake-primary-challenger-passes-1-million-in-fundraising-for-2017

I think she's starting to shut out the chance of DeWit or Graham entering, especially with Bannon/Breitbart and the Fox News crowd rallying behind her. If neither man ends up pulling the trigger, I'm moving this race to leans D, and probably closer to likely D. Ward is probably a stronger bet at this point than Flake in a general election though, with Flake somehow managing to triangulate himself (quite an accomplishment of incompetence, honestly!).

Interesting how you were able to predict that. azcentral(the largest news outlet in the state) is now reporting Trump allies have stopped the search and settled for ward... which of course means Ward is now the front runner for the nomination.

Ward held a rally a few nights ago with 800 people. Serious momentum. I think it is possible we all underestimated her strength not just in the primary but also in a general election, she wouldn't win, but still scary

Edit: heres the source
http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/10/17/steve-bannon-endorseare-donald-trump-supporters-settling-kelli-ward-their-pick-against-sen-jeff-flak/769872001/

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Meanwhile, Jeff Flake is continuing to be amazingly unaware of his party's identity and is intent on going down in flames:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/19/jeff-flake-trump-arizona-243925?lo=ap_a1

Funniest part of that story is how Democrats seem to think Flake has a better chance against Sinema than Ward. I think just the opposite, though I'd give Ward a 20% chance at beating Sinema whereas with Flake I'd give him zero chance.

Dems are using the Pre-Trump model, which suggests establishment republican is always more electable than the Tea Party/Radical/White Supremacist sect. Admittedly, it makes some sense to use that, as generic R would have done better in AZ in '16 than Trump did.

[IceSpear]

Meanwhile, Jeff Flake is continuing to be amazingly unaware of his party's identity and is intent on going down in flames:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/19/jeff-flake-trump-arizona-243925?lo=ap_a1

Funniest part of that story is how Democrats seem to think Flake has a better chance against Sinema than Ward. I think just the opposite, though I'd give Ward a 20% chance at beating Sinema whereas with Flake I'd give him zero chance.

All the Trumpers that despise Flake will still vote for him in a heartbeat before they'd ever vote for a Democrat. His stances against Trump would also be more likely to gain him independent/D crossovers.

[Virginiá]

All the Trumpers that despise Flake will still vote for him in a heartbeat before they'd ever vote for a Democrat. His stances against Trump would also be more likely to gain him independent/D crossovers.

I mean, Flake barely won his first election. I'd say there is some room for a Democrat to win, especially if Flake loses his primary.

[IceSpear]

All the Trumpers that despise Flake will still vote for him in a heartbeat before they'd ever vote for a Democrat. His stances against Trump would also be more likely to gain him independent/D crossovers.

I mean, Flake barely won his first election. I'd say there is some room for a Democrat to win, especially if Flake loses his primary.

I agree. I'm just explaining why some people would see him as more electable than Ward. I think it's lean R with Flake, toss up with Ward.

Meanwhile, Jeff Flake is continuing to be amazingly unaware of his party's identity and is intent on going down in flames:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/19/jeff-flake-trump-arizona-243925?lo=ap_a1

Funniest part of that story is how Democrats seem to think Flake has a better chance against Sinema than Ward. I think just the opposite, though I'd give Ward a 20% chance at beating Sinema whereas with Flake I'd give him zero chance.

All the Trumpers that despise Flake will still vote for him in a heartbeat before they'd ever vote for a Democrat. His stances against Trump would also be more likely to gain him independent/D crossovers.

The two polls on this race (both from Republican firms) have disproven both points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2018#Polling_3

 I think it's more likely those Ward backers would go independent or simply stay home. Look at Martha Roby's close call last year. That's what happens when you go against Dear Leader. And Democrats have no reason to vote for Flake whereas McCain he actually was mavericky and gave them occasional votes in the Senate.

Roby was an outlier though. Wasn't she running against a Trump supporting Dixiecrat? Most Republicans who heavily distanced themselves from Trump in 2016 still received support from the lion's share of Trump voters. Forget Alabama, look at Arizona itself where McCain was one of Trump's first targets. McCain also unendorsed him and criticized him multiple times. He then squashed Kirkpatrick like a bug (despite early polls showing vast discontent about him among the right and a tied race, sound familiar?) with almost every Trump voter + plenty of independent and crossover support.

Of course, McCain was a lot more formidable in other ways than Flake. I don't think he'd be a shoo in by any means if he won the primary, just that he'd be more likely to win than the Crazy Chemtrail Lady (who herself probably has close to even odds...ugh.)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'd say Ward has no chance of winning the GE barring a massive scandal/implosion by Sinema while Flake has about a 30% chance of winning the GE if he makes it that far (although that'll likely drop further at this rate).

[Santander]

Meanwhile, Jeff Flake is continuing to be amazingly unaware of his party's identity and is intent on going down in flames:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/19/jeff-flake-trump-arizona-243925?lo=ap_a1

Funniest part of that story is how Democrats seem to think Flake has a better chance against Sinema than Ward. I think just the opposite, though I'd give Ward a 20% chance at beating Sinema whereas with Flake I'd give him zero chance.

All the Trumpers that despise Flake will still vote for him in a heartbeat before they'd ever vote for a Democrat. His stances against Trump would also be more likely to gain him independent/D crossovers.

We sometimes vote Democrat:

I vote Democrat for county auditor, coroner, and clerk. Sometimes bailiff too.

[IceSpear]

I'd say Ward has no chance of winning the GE barring a massive scandal/implosion by Sinema while Flake has about a 30% chance of winning the GE if he makes it that far (although that'll likely drop further at this rate).

Is Ward really that bad? She just seems like a slightly crazier Joni Ernst to me.

We sometimes vote Democrat:

I vote Democrat for county auditor, coroner, and clerk. Sometimes bailiff too.

fite me irl

[Santander]

We sometimes vote Democrat:

I vote Democrat for county auditor, coroner, and clerk. Sometimes bailiff too.

fite me irl

I knew you missed me.

[Cactus Jack]

All the Trumpers that despise Flake will still vote for him in a heartbeat before they'd ever vote for a Democrat. His stances against Trump would also be more likely to gain him independent/D crossovers.

Actually, they're more likely to just straight-up not vote at all. Ward draws most of her hardcore support from the sort of doomsday prepper fruit bats who make up Paul Gosar's voter base, and you have to believe firsthand experience when I tell you that Ward-Gosar types are exactly the sort of people who would spoil an election out of spite.

Also, to answer your question: yes, Ward really is that bad. Ernst is a little nutty, to say the least, but Ward is...well, forgive me, but a hateful, fanatical bitchbag. Just look into her comments about McCain's GBM diagnosis for proof.

[Webnicz]

All the Trumpers that despise Flake will still vote for him in a heartbeat before they'd ever vote for a Democrat. His stances against Trump would also be more likely to gain him independent/D crossovers.

I mean, Flake barely won his first election. I'd say there is some room for a Democrat to win, especially if Flake loses his primary.

I agree. I'm just explaining why some people would see him as more electable than Ward. I think it's lean R with Flake, toss up with Ward.

Meanwhile, Jeff Flake is continuing to be amazingly unaware of his party's identity and is intent on going down in flames:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/19/jeff-flake-trump-arizona-243925?lo=ap_a1

Funniest part of that story is how Democrats seem to think Flake has a better chance against Sinema than Ward. I think just the opposite, though I'd give Ward a 20% chance at beating Sinema whereas with Flake I'd give him zero chance.

All the Trumpers that despise Flake will still vote for him in a heartbeat before they'd ever vote for a Democrat. His stances against Trump would also be more likely to gain him independent/D crossovers.

The two polls on this race (both from Republican firms) have disproven both points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2018#Polling_3

 I think it's more likely those Ward backers would go independent or simply stay home. Look at Martha Roby's close call last year. That's what happens when you go against Dear Leader. And Democrats have no reason to vote for Flake whereas McCain he actually was mavericky and gave them occasional votes in the Senate.

Roby was an outlier though. Wasn't she running against a Trump supporting Dixiecrat? Most Republicans who heavily distanced themselves from Trump in 2016 still received support from the lion's share of Trump voters. Forget Alabama, look at Arizona itself where McCain was one of Trump's first targets. McCain also unendorsed him and criticized him multiple times. He then squashed Kirkpatrick like a bug (despite early polls showing vast discontent about him among the right and a tied race, sound familiar?) with almost every Trump voter + plenty of independent and crossover support.

Of course, McCain was a lot more formidable in other ways than Flake. I don't think he'd be a shoo in by any means if he won the primary, just that he'd be more likely to win than the Crazy Chemtrail Lady (who herself probably has close to even odds...ugh.)

Its tossup either way.

I fail to see how one of the most disliked senators in the country among his constituents, who has the personality of a cucumber, sucks at fundraising, and pisses everyone off just by looking at his face, is favored to win an election.
Nobody likes Flake, so lets go ahead and stop with the "Lean R" thing especially now that a strong candidate like Sinema is in the race, somebody that is actually liked.

All the Trumpers that despise Flake will still vote for him in a heartbeat before they'd ever vote for a Democrat. His stances against Trump would also be more likely to gain him independent/D crossovers.

Actually, they're more likely to just straight-up not vote at all. Ward draws most of her hardcore support from the sort of doomsday prepper fruit bats who make up Paul Gosar's voter base, and you have to believe firsthand experience when I tell you that Ward-Gosar types are exactly the sort of people who would spoil an election out of spite.

Also, to answer your question: yes, Ward really is that bad. Ernst is a little nutty, to say the least, but Ward is...well, forgive me, but a hateful, fanatical bitchbag. Just look into her comments about McCain's GBM diagnosis for proof.

I recently read your post about Gosar's district full of crazies. I got to say that was the most realistic post about Arizona politics. That entire district is in love with conspiracy theories, and thats no joke. The Mohave County/ Yavapai county portion of the district in particular. In Western Arizona Ward being a conspiracist is a benefit because it makes her relatable.

I think the most by far interesting thing about AZ politics is how big the tent is for the Republican Party in AZ. From The Establishment/Country club republican types you find in Scottsdale, Tea Party types in the west Valley (Trent Franks District AZ-08), Ranchers and farmers in the white mountains, All to the straight up crazies and conspiracist in Mohave and Yavapai. The 2016 senate primary map pretty much describes who you find in each region.

[UncleSam]

At this point I honestly think chemtrail Kelli Ward is a slight favorite to become the newest senator from Arizona

God fking help us all

[Cactus Jack]

At this point I honestly think chemtrail Kelli Ward is a slight favorite to become the newest senator from Arizona

God fking help us all

You wildly, wildly underestimate Sinema and overestimate how much Arizonans like Ward.

[Figueira]

Arizona is not Alabama. You don't need a massive Republican dropoff to elect Sinema.

[IceSpear]

At this point I honestly think chemtrail Kelli Ward is a slight favorite to become the newest senator from Arizona

God fking help us all

You wildly, wildly underestimate Sinema and overestimate how much Arizonans like Ward.

Nobody said they had to like Ward. How much did Arizonans like Trump?

[heatcharger]

BREAKING: Flake is OUT.

[IceSpear]

BREAKING: Flake is OUT.

So Jeffrey lied to us when he said he didn't care if it cost him electorally

He knew it would cost him electorally. Probably not to the degree of trailing Chemtrail Kelli by 30 points though.

[Wiz in Wis]

My my my...

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/2017/10/24/republican-senator-jeff-flake-announces-not-running-senate-reelection-gop-primary-ward-trump/793952001/