Kid Rock (Not) Running for Michigan Senate Seat

[JoshPA]

Kid Rock is well known and well liked in Michigan, calling this safe D is beyond partisan hackery

Obviously it remains to be seen whether he is any good as a public speaker, campaigner, or fundraiser but if he is an adept candidate he can and in fact has a decent chance of winning. If he's not a good candidate he will get crushed, Michigan is much more elastic to message then most states.

But about ted nudget? I think his senate camp is out but the governor manison thought is winnable for him.

[RogueBeaver]

Politico: don't count him out if he actually runs, though Stabenow obviously still favored.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kid Rock is well known and well liked in Michigan, calling this safe D is beyond partisan hackery

Obviously it remains to be seen whether he is any good as a public speaker, campaigner, or fundraiser but if he is an adept candidate he can and in fact has a decent chance of winning. If he's not a good candidate he will get crushed, Michigan is much more elastic to message then most states.

But about ted nudget? I think his senate camp is out but the governor manison thought is winnable for him.

Nugent wouldn't crack 40% in any statewide race.

[Blair]

And he is qualified how? Can anyone give any reasons why he is qualified?

he is a us citizen over the age of 35 that only things you need be qualified I didnt hear democrats bitching about al franken and I considered him qualified.

Al Franken went to harvard...

[DrScholl]

And he is qualified how? Can anyone give any reasons why he is qualified?

he is a us citizen over the age of 35 that only things you need be qualified I didnt hear democrats bitching about al franken and I considered him qualified.

The age to run for Senate is 30, not 35. There is a differences between legal requirements and qualifications. As we have seen with Trump, qualifications and experience do matter.

[Badger]

And he is qualified how? Can anyone give any reasons why he is qualified?

he is a us citizen over the age of 35 that only things you need be qualified I didnt hear democrats bitching about al franken and I considered him qualified.

Al Franken went to harvard...

 and has proven himself a very effective and knowledgeable senator, which even his ideological opponents admit.

[Badger]

I know we should be taking Kid Rock's run seriously, but should we really be thinking he has a chance? He's going up against a popular democrat incumbent in an anti-trump midterm and who is someone who won by 21 points last election.

Thank you!

[Badger]

Politico: don't count him out if he actually runs, though Stabenow obviously still favored.

The analysis here, like the analysis everywhere saying take Kid Rock seriously is essentially this. Donald Trump, despite all his buffoonery, sexism, and repeated decades-long demonstration that he says and the Sphinx really really nasty offensive things, still beat a mainstream well-known Democratic woman in a traditionally Democratic state. Therefore Anything is Possible.

Which I suppose is true. After all then, could simply be hit by a meteor crashing to Earth which is after all technically possible. And the governor could appoint Kid Rock as the interim senator who would then run as an incumbent. It's still possible after all.

Or, Trump's win against Clinton who is a skin of the teeth fluke which most Blue Collar voters are feeling pretty betrayed about Trump stabbing them in the back for typical billionaire policies, Plus even Trump was a better candidate than Kid Rock because the former could at least point two decades worth of a ledge business success and say he would run dysfunctional Washington like a business and make it work. Kid Rock may have made tens of millions by marketing mostly crappy music, but voters aren't going to give him the same benefit of Doubt of well he's made money so he in business so he knows how to run things

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Politico: don't count him out if he actually runs, though Stabenow obviously still favored.

The analysis here, like the analysis everywhere saying take Kid Rock seriously is essentially this. Donald Trump, despite all his buffoonery, sexism, and repeated decades-long demonstration that he says and the Sphinx really really nasty offensive things, still beat a mainstream well-known Democratic woman in a traditionally Democratic state. Therefore Anything is Possible.

Which I suppose is true. After all then, could simply be hit by a meteor crashing to Earth which is after all technically possible. And the governor could appoint Kid Rock as the interim senator who would then run as an incumbent. It's still possible after all.

Or, Trump's win against Clinton who is a skin of the teeth fluke which most Blue Collar voters are feeling pretty betrayed about Trump stabbing them in the back for typical billionaire policies, Plus even Trump was a better candidate than Kid Rock because the former could at least point two decades worth of a ledge business success and say he would run dysfunctional Washington like a business and make it work. Kid Rock may have made tens of millions by marketing mostly crappy music, but voters aren't going to give him the same benefit of Doubt of well he's made money so he in business so he knows how to run things

This is what you and many, many others are and have been missing since '14: people don't vote for people because of their experiences anymore. They vote for people like Kid Rock (who I don't think will win anyway though it'd be fatal for to count him out) because he says what they think. If you read any of my Trump posts, especially my 2011-2012 posts when I hated him far more than you do now, you'd see that I have always thought running the country "like a business" is retarded. Mitt Romney ran on that exact same platform, perhaps even more so, whereas Trump sort of just stuck to "I'm independent" and "I'm with/for you."

If Kid Rock just runs on the basic premise of bread and butter retail politics, he'll have a chance. His persona though, as you noted, is harder to take seriously compared to Trump. But if he basically runs as a Michigander who is living the American dream, and then contrast himself to a potentially out of touch Stabenow, he very well might pull it off. If Stabenow takes him seriously, it would show that she is indeed in touch with her constituents and isn't drunk off the arrogance of power. Debbie Stabenow is no Hillary Clinton (certainly an establishment Senator, but without Clinton's many pitfalls) she should pull this off.

Eric Bolling is the only other "celebrity" candidate for federal office who I could see winning, because he, like Trump, literally explains his political maneuvering to the public as he does it. He won't face carpetbagging allegations if he comes to Florida and runs, for example, because he has made it clear that he is carpetbagging. Brutal honesty is a new tool in the political arena (at least I've never seen it deployed so much, so effectively) and it can make otherwise long shot candidates very successful.

Other celebrity candidates like Zuckerberg, Jenner are just too far out to ever actually win any office. But then again, so was The Governator. So who knows?

[JMT]

I do agree with others here who believe we need to take Kid Rock seriously, and you all have pointed out good reasons to do so. But I wouldn't start worrying just yet, because we still don't really know if this Senate candidacy is even real. I'll believe it when I see it (a.k.a when/if he files with the FEC to run). If he actually files, then it's time to start considering the true ramifications. 

[heatcharger]

That poll was most likely fake, although I'm still much more cautious about this race than before. Kid Rock is slightly less offensive than Trump and hits the right notes with the key demographics needed for a Republican to win Michigan.

The morons in the political media also seem to have learned nothing from their fawning celebrity coverage of Trump early on, so I'm worried Rock will gets loads of free media.

[The Other Castro]

Trafalgar Group will be releasing a poll tomorrow that includes Kid Rock. They've been on a hot streak lately, so this should be interesting.

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/890319293723942916

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Trafalgar Group will be releasing a poll tomorrow that includes Kid Rock. They've been on a hot streak lately, so this should be interesting.

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/890319293723942916

Republican firm IIRC

[BudgieForce]

Trafalgar Group will be releasing a poll tomorrow that includes Kid Rock. They've been on a hot streak lately, so this should be interesting.

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/890319293723942916

I think they have an R-bias, but reality has an R-bias right now so...
 

[Kevin]

Trafalgar Group will be releasing a poll tomorrow that includes Kid Rock. They've been on a hot streak lately, so this should be interesting.

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/890319293723942916

They just announced that they will be releasing the poll tomorrow at 10AM.

My guess: Stabenow +4 with many undecideds.

Should be interesting with what it gives. My guess is ether a comfortable Kid Rock lead or narrow Debbie lead. Given the roll unconventional candidates have been on reecently+how well known Kid Rock is in MI-Esp. among working class whites in SE Michigan I wouldn't discount him at all.

That said given the possible environment next year with an unpopular incumbent Republican President and that Stabenow is no HRC. Along with the fact that the GOP has had alot of difficulty winning Senate seats in Michigan I would give her a strong edge as of now.

[krazen1211]

Kid Rock is leading in a new poll!

I believe he is likely to defeat Stabenow.


Link

New MI-Sen poll coming soon from @trafalgar_group has @KidRock 48.6 vs @stabenow 46.1

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kid Rock is leading in a new poll!

I believe he is likely to defeat Stabenow.


Link

New MI-Sen poll coming soon from @trafalgar_group has @KidRock 48.6 vs @stabenow 46.1

Decimals

[KingSweden]

Kid Rock should not be underrated in a state he is so active and well-liked in.

That said, I doubt he pulls the trigger in the end

[BudgieForce]

Kid Rock is leading in a new poll!

I believe he is likely to defeat Stabenow.


Link

New MI-Sen poll coming soon from @trafalgar_group has @KidRock 48.6 vs @stabenow 46.1

No you dont...

[Santander]

Kid Rock should not be underrated in a state he is so active and well-liked in.

That said, I doubt he pulls the trigger in the end

Yeah, while I'm pretty sure this is semi-serious, I don't think he'll end up actually doing it.

[krazen1211]

Kid Rock is leading in a new poll!

I believe he is likely to defeat Stabenow.


Link

New MI-Sen poll coming soon from @trafalgar_group has @KidRock 48.6 vs @stabenow 46.1

No you dont...

GOP Senate candidates are leading in many polls as of late.

[Rjjr77]

Kid Rock should not be underrated in a state he is so active and well-liked in.

That said, I doubt he pulls the trigger in the end

Yeah, while I'm pretty sure this is semi-serious, I don't think he'll end up actually doing it.

If polls keep pushing him he may end up doing it...

[BudgieForce]

Kid Rock is leading in a new poll!

I believe he is likely to defeat Stabenow.


Link

New MI-Sen poll coming soon from @trafalgar_group has @KidRock 48.6 vs @stabenow 46.1

No you dont...

GOP Senate candidates are leading in many polls as of late.

Yep, with over a year out with an unpopular president who is likely to get even more unpopular.  I really think GOP senate candidates will under perform like democrats did in 2010 and 2014.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kid Rock should not be underrated in a state he is so active and well-liked in.

That said, I doubt he pulls the trigger in the end

Saying he'll get 40% maximum is being generous; he'll probably get 36-38%

[TheSaint250]

Kid Rock is leading in a new poll!

I believe he is likely to defeat Stabenow.


Link

New MI-Sen poll coming soon from @trafalgar_group has @KidRock 48.6 vs @stabenow 46.1

No you dont...

GOP Senate candidates are leading in many polls as of late.

Yep, with over a year out with an unpopular president who is likely to get even more unpopular.  I really think GOP senate candidates will under perform like democrats did in 2010 and 2014.

It's hard to say in terms of under- or overperforming, and not every election in a given year is the same.  Many expected Reid to lose in 2010 or at least do worse than he did.