Sabato: Virginia’s Ever-Changing Electoral Map

[Virginiá]

The New Dominion: Virginia’s Ever-Changing Electoral Map

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-new-dominion-virginias-ever-changing-electoral-map/


Virginia’s relative partisan lean compared to national popular vote margin, 1968 to 2016

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[Annatar]

Interesting analysis over at the Crystal Ball, it seems that changes in population distribution in Virginia have played a major role in shifting the state from solid red to leaning blue, the growth in northern Virginia is stunning. Right there only appears to be 2 ways a Republican candidate can win Virginia at this point, of course a candidate could rely partially on both options, one would be running up huge margins outside of the urban crescent or alternatively cutting into the Democrats margins in counties like Fairfax which Trump lost by nearly 190,000 or Arlington where he sustained a defeat of 72,000 votes, these 2 counties more then accounting for Clinton's margin of victory statewide.

On the democratic side, making Virginia more blue would rely upon shifting northern Virginia further to the left as well as making gains in the greater Richmond area. Overall, I would say it is quite likely that Virginia will continue to lean Democratic going forward with the drift of southwestern Virginia towards the GOP preventing Virginia from becoming a safe Democratic state.

[SoLongAtlas]

This gif also encapsulates the OP's point (data from 1964-2008) https://coopercenterdemographics.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/gif-animation-of-election-outcomes.gif

[PragmaticPopulist]

I find it a bit sad how ancestrally Democratic SW VA is now so staunchly Republican. It was only 8 years ago that Mark Warner won there, along with the rest of the state, in a landslide. Just because it's losing population doesn't mean it should be written off as unreachable.

As for other parts of the map, I still don't think Dems have hit a ceiling in NoVa. Fairfax County is a lot like neighboring Montgomery County in MD; both were once white-collar Republican bastions, and trended heavily Dem in the early 2000s. The difference is that Montgomery's Democratic trend was faster, and by 2008, was consistently giving Democratic candidates 70+%. Clinton hit 64% in Fairfax last year, the best performance a Democrat has had there since at least FDR in 1936 (possibly longer). I can easily see a Democrat hitting 70% there in the future.

Tidewater seems harder to predict. Since World War II, it has seemed pretty static in its partisan trends. I could see James City County becoming a Dem-leaning county, while Virginia Beach would become a national bellwether (it sort of is already).

[SoLongAtlas]

I find it a bit sad how ancestrally Democratic SW VA is now so staunchly Republican. It was only 8 years ago that Mark Warner won there, along with the rest of the state, in a landslide. Just because it's losing population doesn't mean it should be written off as unreachable.

As for other parts of the map, I still don't think Dems have hit a ceiling in NoVa. Fairfax County is a lot like neighboring Montgomery County in MD; both were once white-collar Republican bastions, and trended heavily Dem in the early 2000s. The difference is that Montgomery's Democratic trend was faster, and by 2008, was consistently giving Democratic candidates 70+%. Clinton hit 64% in Fairfax last year, the best performance a Democrat has had there since at least FDR in 1936 (possibly longer). I can easily see a Democrat hitting 70% there in the future.

Tidewater seems harder to predict. Since World War II, it has seemed pretty static in its partisan trends. I could see James City County becoming a Dem-leaning county, while Virginia Beach would become a national bellwether (it sort of is already).

Conservative Dems as opposed to the NoVA moderate to liberal Dems. That's the key there.

Absolutely going to happen with pop growth, esp with immigration and net in-migration from the NE

JCC, yes because of pop and AA %; VB yes on the bellwether due to it being a conservative city and a lot of beach bum indies that hate both parties aka swing voters

[Nyvin]

Virginia Beach is probably it's own unique case due to all the military presence.   I don't think it will trend dem all that much, if it does at all, in the near future.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Virginia Beach is probably it's own unique case due to all the military presence.   I don't think it will trend dem all that much, if it does at all, in the near future.

Well it's transitioned from dark red to pink over the past 15 years, and is still winnable for certain Deks: Kaine, Northam, and Warner, so there's that

Which is why I don't think at the moment it will become a d-leaning city. It will be a tossup at best for Democrats. If the GOP continues down the road of Trumpism though, I could see a tiny D-advantage. It is a fairly well-educated area.

[Smash255]

Interesting analysis over at the Crystal Ball, it seems that changes in population distribution in Virginia have played a major role in shifting the state from solid red to leaning blue, the growth in northern Virginia is stunning. Right there only appears to be 2 ways a Republican candidate can win Virginia at this point, of course a candidate could rely partially on both options, one would be running up huge margins outside of the urban crescent or alternatively cutting into the Democrats margins in counties like Fairfax which Trump lost by nearly 190,000 or Arlington where he sustained a defeat of 72,000 votes, these 2 counties more then accounting for Clinton's margin of victory statewide.

On the democratic side, making Virginia more blue would rely upon shifting northern Virginia further to the left as well as making gains in the greater Richmond area. Overall, I would say it is quite likely that Virginia will continue to lean Democratic going forward with the drift of southwestern Virginia towards the GOP preventing Virginia from becoming a safe Democratic state.

I think it will become even more Democratic and be in the safe column.  SW Virginia likely could move further towards the GOP, but NOVA and Greater Richmond will likely move even more towards the Democrats.  That movement along with the current population of those areas, and population growth in those areas will make it very difficult for the GOP to stop the state from moving into the safe Dem category.

[Nyvin]

It'll be interesting to see what happens to VA-7 in the future.   Maybe not 2018 or even 2020, but after redistricting it really could become a swing seat.   

In the unlikely case that Dems get something near a trifecta for redistricting, they could combine the Richmond suburbs with Albemarle/Charlottesville to make a Dem seat (I doubt this will happen though).

[SoLongAtlas]

It'll be interesting to see what happens to VA-7 in the future.   Maybe not 2018 or even 2020, but after redistricting it really could become a swing seat.  

In the unlikely case that Dems get something near a trifecta for redistricting, they could combine the Richmond suburbs with Albemarle/Charlottesville to make a Dem seat (I doubt this will happen though).

Interesting idea for VA-7. I doubt they get a trifecta but if they got the gov/State senate it would still be hard. The reason C'Ville is in VA-5 instead of VA-7 is to make it a little more even. If not, VA-5 would be an R+15 or so good ol' boy district as opposed to R+6. I really want it to moderate, grew up down there and the district is def not doing as well as it could be (people moving to NoVA for jobs (including myself), right moving to the far right due to this, lack of opportunity in the rural counties).

[Nyvin]

It'll be interesting to see what happens to VA-7 in the future.   Maybe not 2018 or even 2020, but after redistricting it really could become a swing seat.  

In the unlikely case that Dems get something near a trifecta for redistricting, they could combine the Richmond suburbs with Albemarle/Charlottesville to make a Dem seat (I doubt this will happen though).

Interesting idea for VA-7. I doubt they get a trifecta but if they got the gov/State senate it would still be hard. The reason C'Ville is in VA-5 instead of VA-7 is to make it a little more even. If not, VA-5 would be an R+15 or so good ol' boy district as opposed to R+6. I really want it to moderate, grew up down there and the district is def not doing as well as it could be (people moving to NoVA for jobs (including myself), right moving to the far right due to this, lack of opportunity in the rural counties).

Richmond to Charlottesville even makes sense transportation-wise too, it follows I-64 all the way.  It's certainly a community of interests too, and looks a heck of a lot nicer than the northward arm that VA-5 has now.

[PragmaticPopulist]

It'll be interesting to see what happens to VA-7 in the future.   Maybe not 2018 or even 2020, but after redistricting it really could become a swing seat.  

In the unlikely case that Dems get something near a trifecta for redistricting, they could combine the Richmond suburbs with Albemarle/Charlottesville to make a Dem seat (I doubt this will happen though).

Interesting idea for VA-7. I doubt they get a trifecta but if they got the gov/State senate it would still be hard. The reason C'Ville is in VA-5 instead of VA-7 is to make it a little more even. If not, VA-5 would be an R+15 or so good ol' boy district as opposed to R+6. I really want it to moderate, grew up down there and the district is def not doing as well as it could be (people moving to NoVA for jobs (including myself), right moving to the far right due to this, lack of opportunity in the rural counties).

Richmond to Charlottesville even makes sense transportation-wise too, it follows I-64 all the way.  It's certainly a community of interests too, and looks a heck of a lot nicer than the northward arm that VA-5 has now.

VA-7 has an odd history. It's most well known for the Brat upset, but swung from an 11.2-point Romney win to just a 6.5-point Trump win. It also voted for Ed Gillespie in the gubernatorial primary earlier this year over Corey Stewart. It could be because the GOP primary in 2014 was a very low-turnout election, and that the district at-large is more establishment-leaning.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It'll be interesting to see what happens to VA-7 in the future.   Maybe not 2018 or even 2020, but after redistricting it really could become a swing seat.   

In the unlikely case that Dems get something near a trifecta for redistricting, they could combine the Richmond suburbs with Albemarle/Charlottesville to make a Dem seat (I doubt this will happen though).

Will the person who wins the 2017 gubernatorial race be in charge of the next round of redistricting or will it be the 2021 winner? The timing will be awkward since the census takes place in 2020 and redistricting in 2021.

[heatcharger]

It'll be interesting to see what happens to VA-7 in the future.   Maybe not 2018 or even 2020, but after redistricting it really could become a swing seat.  

In the unlikely case that Dems get something near a trifecta for redistricting, they could combine the Richmond suburbs with Albemarle/Charlottesville to make a Dem seat (I doubt this will happen though).

Interesting idea for VA-7. I doubt they get a trifecta but if they got the gov/State senate it would still be hard. The reason C'Ville is in VA-5 instead of VA-7 is to make it a little more even. If not, VA-5 would be an R+15 or so good ol' boy district as opposed to R+6. I really want it to moderate, grew up down there and the district is def not doing as well as it could be (people moving to NoVA for jobs (including myself), right moving to the far right due to this, lack of opportunity in the rural counties).

Richmond to Charlottesville even makes sense transportation-wise too, it follows I-64 all the way.  It's certainly a community of interests too, and looks a heck of a lot nicer than the northward arm that VA-5 has now.

Could someone produce some maps with this idea? I would like to but my browser is too modern for Dave's Redistricting App.

[Virginiá]

I would like to but my browser is too modern for Dave's Redistricting App.

I believe DRA works if you use IE11, as burdensome as that may be

[heatcharger]

I would like to but my browser is too modern for Dave's Redistricting App.

I believe DRA works if you use IE11, as burdensome as that may be

Yup, you're right. I will say that it's extremely finicky, at least on 2.2, to the point where it's not that enjoyable to use. Hopefully someone with some web dev skills comes along and makes an HTML5 client of this.