Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 25, 2019, 07:20:46 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  International General Discussion (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash, Keyboard Jacobinism)
| | |-+  Hypothetical: If Kim Jong-un suddenly dies, what happens to North Korea?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Hypothetical: If Kim Jong-un suddenly dies, what happens to North Korea?  (Read 942 times)
ERM64man
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,610


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 14, 2017, 07:02:21 pm »

If he dies of an illness or in some accident, what would be the fate of his regime? Might he have a designated successor? Would there be a military coup? Would the regime just collapse?
« Last Edit: July 14, 2017, 07:25:53 pm by ERM64man »Logged
Kingpoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,032
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2017, 10:14:17 pm »

The resulting confusion in the hierarchy would be interesting, to say the least. Kim Han-sol, Kim Jong-chul, Ri Yong-ho, Kim Ju-ae loyalists, and Choe Ryong-hae would presumably all compete for power. I think whoever Kim Sul-song sides with of the Kims would dominate in a short struggle for leadership.

There's always the possibility Sul-song herself takes over, at least maybe claiming to be a regent for Ju-ae, but I'm not sure how the populace and military would react to a female leader. Han-sol would gain the backing of South Korea, and possibly even China. If the Chinese allies in the government and military and the Chinese ambassador made it clear that they preferred Han-sol, it would be interesting to see what the remaining North Korean leaders would do.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2017, 12:04:45 am by Kingpoleon »Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 45,270


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2017, 10:26:54 pm »

The resulting confusion in the hierarchy would be interesting, to say the least. Kim Han-sol, Kim Jong-chun, Ri Yong-ho, Kim Ju-ae loyalists, and Choe Ryong-hae would presumably all compete for power. I think whoever Kim Sul-song sides with of the Kims would dominate in a short struggle for leadership.

There's always the possibility Sul-song herself takes over, at least maybe claiming to be a regent for Ju-ae, but I'm not sure how the populace and military would react to a female leader. Han-sol would gain the backing of South Korea, and possibly even China. If the Chinese allies in the government and military and the Chinese ambassador made it clear that they preferred Han-sol, it would be interesting to see what the remaining North Korean leaders would do.

If they're going to have a female ruler, it'd be his sister, Kim Yo-jong.
Logged
ERM64man
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,610


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2017, 11:01:17 pm »

It's more likely his brother Kim Jong-chul, or nephew, Kim Han-sol, takes over.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2017, 11:04:25 pm by ERM64man »Logged
Kingpoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,032
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2017, 01:23:55 am »

It's more likely his brother Kim Jong-chul, or nephew, Kim Han-sol, takes over.
Han-sol only takes over if China forces it.
Logged
ERM64man
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,610


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2017, 02:49:33 pm »

What about Kim-Jong-chul? Might he take over?
Logged
Kingpoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,032
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2017, 07:46:45 pm »

What about Kim-Jong-chul? Might he take over?
Sure. He could gain the backing of the North Korean generals, but I'm not sure he can gain China's backing.
Logged
Unapologetic Chinaperson
nj_dem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,373


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2017, 10:08:06 pm »

Regardless of who wins in the ensuing power struggle, chaos would inevitably ensue. At worst we would get an East Asian Syria, with millions of Korean refugees and a couple of missing nuclear weapons.
Logged
TML
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,287


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2017, 01:43:16 am »

I suspect the most likely outcome of this scenario would be that whoever succeeds him continues to stick to most existing policies (e.g. pursuit of nuclear weapons, hatred of US/SK/JP, etc.).
Logged
Keyboard Jacobinism
Kalwejt
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,025


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2017, 03:12:37 am »

It's more likely his brother Kim Jong-chul, or nephew, Kim Han-sol, takes over.
Han-sol only takes over if China forces it.

I, for one, Endorse Han Sol's possible seizure of power

Img
Logged
ERM64man
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,610


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2017, 07:54:24 pm »

Would there even be a power struggle, or does Kim-Jong-un have a designated successor in case he dies?
Logged
Kingpoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,032
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2017, 08:03:43 pm »

Would there even be a power struggle, or does Kim-Jong-un have a designated successor in case he dies?
He has no official designated successor. It should be noted that Kim Jong-in wasn't expected to be his father's successor, though, and at times it has seemed a little suspicious that he took power.
Logged
Santander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,152
Russian Federation


Political Matrix
E: 3.54, S: 4.78

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 18, 2017, 02:15:06 pm »

Would there even be a power struggle, or does Kim-Jong-un have a designated successor in case he dies?
There is none, because it's a democratic republic.
Logged
Kingpoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,032
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 18, 2017, 05:07:10 pm »

Would there even be a power struggle, or does Kim-Jong-un have a designated successor in case he dies?
There is none, because it's a democratic *people's* republic.
Logged
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,628
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 18, 2017, 09:57:47 pm »

North Korea would probably fall to American aggression without Kim's skilled leadership.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines