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November 12, 2019, 10:46:23 am
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  Hypothetical: If Kim Jong-un suddenly dies, what happens to North Korea?
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Author Topic: Hypothetical: If Kim Jong-un suddenly dies, what happens to North Korea?  (Read 1020 times)
ERM64man
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« on: July 14, 2017, 07:02:21 pm »
« edited: July 14, 2017, 07:25:53 pm by ERM64man »

If he dies of an illness or in some accident, what would be the fate of his regime? Might he have a designated successor? Would there be a military coup? Would the regime just collapse?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2017, 10:14:17 pm »
« Edited: July 15, 2017, 12:04:45 am by Kingpoleon »

The resulting confusion in the hierarchy would be interesting, to say the least. Kim Han-sol, Kim Jong-chul, Ri Yong-ho, Kim Ju-ae loyalists, and Choe Ryong-hae would presumably all compete for power. I think whoever Kim Sul-song sides with of the Kims would dominate in a short struggle for leadership.

There's always the possibility Sul-song herself takes over, at least maybe claiming to be a regent for Ju-ae, but I'm not sure how the populace and military would react to a female leader. Han-sol would gain the backing of South Korea, and possibly even China. If the Chinese allies in the government and military and the Chinese ambassador made it clear that they preferred Han-sol, it would be interesting to see what the remaining North Korean leaders would do.
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jfern
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« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2017, 10:26:54 pm »

The resulting confusion in the hierarchy would be interesting, to say the least. Kim Han-sol, Kim Jong-chun, Ri Yong-ho, Kim Ju-ae loyalists, and Choe Ryong-hae would presumably all compete for power. I think whoever Kim Sul-song sides with of the Kims would dominate in a short struggle for leadership.

There's always the possibility Sul-song herself takes over, at least maybe claiming to be a regent for Ju-ae, but I'm not sure how the populace and military would react to a female leader. Han-sol would gain the backing of South Korea, and possibly even China. If the Chinese allies in the government and military and the Chinese ambassador made it clear that they preferred Han-sol, it would be interesting to see what the remaining North Korean leaders would do.

If they're going to have a female ruler, it'd be his sister, Kim Yo-jong.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2017, 11:01:17 pm »
« Edited: July 14, 2017, 11:04:25 pm by ERM64man »

It's more likely his brother Kim Jong-chul, or nephew, Kim Han-sol, takes over.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2017, 01:23:55 am »

It's more likely his brother Kim Jong-chul, or nephew, Kim Han-sol, takes over.
Han-sol only takes over if China forces it.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2017, 02:49:33 pm »

What about Kim-Jong-chul? Might he take over?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2017, 07:46:45 pm »

What about Kim-Jong-chul? Might he take over?
Sure. He could gain the backing of the North Korean generals, but I'm not sure he can gain China's backing.
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Unapologetic Chinaperson
nj_dem
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« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2017, 10:08:06 pm »

Regardless of who wins in the ensuing power struggle, chaos would inevitably ensue. At worst we would get an East Asian Syria, with millions of Korean refugees and a couple of missing nuclear weapons.
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TML
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« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2017, 01:43:16 am »

I suspect the most likely outcome of this scenario would be that whoever succeeds him continues to stick to most existing policies (e.g. pursuit of nuclear weapons, hatred of US/SK/JP, etc.).
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Austere Religious Scholar
Kalwejt
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« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2017, 03:12:37 am »

It's more likely his brother Kim Jong-chul, or nephew, Kim Han-sol, takes over.
Han-sol only takes over if China forces it.

I, for one, Endorse Han Sol's possible seizure of power

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ERM64man
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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2017, 07:54:24 pm »

Would there even be a power struggle, or does Kim-Jong-un have a designated successor in case he dies?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2017, 08:03:43 pm »

Would there even be a power struggle, or does Kim-Jong-un have a designated successor in case he dies?
He has no official designated successor. It should be noted that Kim Jong-in wasn't expected to be his father's successor, though, and at times it has seemed a little suspicious that he took power.
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D-KY before it was cool
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« Reply #12 on: July 18, 2017, 02:15:06 pm »

Would there even be a power struggle, or does Kim-Jong-un have a designated successor in case he dies?
There is none, because it's a democratic republic.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #13 on: July 18, 2017, 05:07:10 pm »

Would there even be a power struggle, or does Kim-Jong-un have a designated successor in case he dies?
There is none, because it's a democratic *people's* republic.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #14 on: July 18, 2017, 09:57:47 pm »

North Korea would probably fall to American aggression without Kim's skilled leadership.
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