Post-Realignment Electoral Map?
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Suburban Republican
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« on: July 17, 2017, 07:59:52 PM »

Here's some food for thought. Assuming political realignment happens in the near future, what would the electoral map look like (15-25 years from now)? I imagine partisan loyalties would lie more with income than race and religion. I suspect demographic groups would vote like this:

Solid Democratic (Lower Income)Sad Poorer Whites, African Americans, (Hispanics?) & Millennials

Solid GOP (Upper Income)Sad Wealthier Whites, Asians, Boomers & Gen X

I assume there would be a lot of swings states. Thus, the electoral map would be prone to more wild swings (Eisenhower/Johnson/Nixon style).

Discuss with maps.
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« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2017, 08:21:32 PM »

The younger half of generation x is somewhat Democratic. Not the same as Millennials, but is definitely worth keeping a note of. I'd say voters between people ages 35 - 44 account for the more Dem-leaning portion of gen x.

Also it would help to know how you envision groups by educational attainment voting.
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2017, 08:31:22 PM »

Except for Asians, that seems to be now
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2017, 09:26:10 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2017, 09:28:44 PM by Technocracy Timmy »

The younger half of generation x is somewhat Democratic. Not the same as Millennials, but is definitely worth keeping a note of. I'd say voters between people ages 35 - 44 account for the more Dem-leaning portion of gen x.

Also it would help to know how you envision groups by educational attainment voting.

I think the next Democratic realignment will pursue policies that disproportionately benefit millennials and Gen Zers so I could definitely see the younger half of Gen X trending Republican.

Note: the first minority coalition President always does better among older voters. Eisenhower did great with the older Lost generation and Clinton did great with the older GI generation. The first GOP president in this alignment (which I think will be a Democratic one) will make inroads with the older Xers circa 2036-2044.
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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2017, 09:46:15 PM »

Note: the first minority coalition President always does better among older voters. Eisenhower did great with the older Lost generation and Clinton did great with the older GI generation. The first GOP president in this alignment (which I think will be a Democratic one) will make inroads with the older Xers circa 2036-2044.

excellent point!
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2017, 09:59:40 PM »

I think history suggests that the next alignment will look something like this:

GOP: "White" Hispanics, upscale minorities (winning about 51-59% of the Asian vote), wealthier voters, Gen Xers and whoever is left of the boomer generation.

Democrats: Hispanics who don't identify as white, millennials, Gen Zers, African Americans, and a slight majority of poor whites.

Two questions marks I constantly contemplate about this alignment: to what extent the Dixie south shifts, and whether the first GOP president wins New York or Texas in their victory. These two questions will determine the geographic underpinning to where the GOP will set up shop moving forward.
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2017, 10:31:40 PM »

I think history suggests that the next alignment will look something like this:

GOP: "White" Hispanics, upscale minorities (winning about 51-59% of the Asian vote), wealthier voters, Gen Xers and whoever is left of the boomer generation.

Democrats: Hispanics who don't identify as white, millennials, Gen Zers, African Americans, and a slight majority of poor whites.

Two questions marks I constantly contemplate about this alignment: to what extent the Dixie south shifts, and whether the first GOP president wins New York or Texas in their victory. These two questions will determine the geographic underpinning to where the GOP will set up shop moving forward.

I would say Texas is definitely more likely as even on economic issues it's clearly more conservative. New York as been a solid dem state on the national level since 1932(except in major landslides , and when a popular New York governor was on top of the GOP ticket ) and i don't think it will change for another 50 years at least .
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2017, 10:37:49 PM »

I think history suggests that the next alignment will look something like this:

GOP: "White" Hispanics, upscale minorities (winning about 51-59% of the Asian vote), wealthier voters, Gen Xers and whoever is left of the boomer generation.

Democrats: Hispanics who don't identify as white, millennials, Gen Zers, African Americans, and a slight majority of poor whites.

Two questions marks I constantly contemplate about this alignment: to what extent the Dixie south shifts, and whether the first GOP president wins New York or Texas in their victory. These two questions will determine the geographic underpinning to where the GOP will set up shop moving forward.

I would say Texas is definitely more likely as even on economic issues it's clearly more conservative. New York as been a solid dem state on the national level since 1932(except in major landslides , and when a popular New York governor was on top of the GOP ticket ) and i don't think it will change for another 50 years at least .

Good chance the first GOP President is from NYC, Philly, or NJ. Romney and Trump are both urban northeasterners and the Northeast has been trending GOP on the whole from 2000-2016 (excluding MA and possibly VT).

Texas comes down to if younger Hispanics continue voting Democrat, if Hispanics in the state reach economic parity with whites, and if Hispanics start self identifying as white in greater numbers. So far I think the trends in Texas indicate a clear shift leftwards moving forward.

Even if the next GOP president loses VT, MA, and NY, they'll make strong enough inroads in the northeastern United States to where they'll likely not need Texas to win the EC.
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« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2017, 10:47:38 PM »

I would say this is going to be the map in 2036 if vote is 50-50


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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2017, 10:55:41 PM »

I think history suggests that the next alignment will look something like this:

GOP: "White" Hispanics, upscale minorities (winning about 51-59% of the Asian vote), wealthier voters, Gen Xers and whoever is left of the boomer generation.

Democrats: Hispanics who don't identify as white, millennials, Gen Zers, African Americans, and a slight majority of poor whites.

Two questions marks I constantly contemplate about this alignment: to what extent the Dixie south shifts, and whether the first GOP president wins New York or Texas in their victory. These two questions will determine the geographic underpinning to where the GOP will set up shop moving forward.

I would say Texas is definitely more likely as even on economic issues it's clearly more conservative. New York as been a solid dem state on the national level since 1932(except in major landslides , and when a popular New York governor was on top of the GOP ticket ) and i don't think it will change for another 50 years at least .

Good chance the first GOP President is from NYC, Philly, or NJ. Romney and Trump are both urban northeasterners and the Northeast has been trending GOP on the whole from 2000-2016 (excluding MA and possibly VT).

Texas comes down to if younger Hispanics continue voting Democrat, if Hispanics in the state reach economic parity with whites, and if Hispanics start self identifying as white in greater numbers. So far I think the trends in Texas indicate a clear shift leftwards moving forward.

Even if the next GOP president loses VT, MA, and NY, they'll make strong enough inroads in the northeastern United States to where they'll likely not need Texas to win the EC.


I don't think so as despite all the  talk about Texas shift this year here are the numbers


2012: Romney 57.17% Obama 41.38% Johnson 1.11% Stein .31%

2016: Trump 52.23% Hillary 43.24% Johnson 3.16% Stein .8%


So while Hillary gained 2 points on Obama and performed under his 08 numbers . The gains she made  didn't explain the full swing as much of that had to do with never trumpers voting for Johnson or staying home or even voting Hillary. In my opinion a generic establishment republican would have over performed romney's numbers .


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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2017, 11:00:35 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2017, 11:02:07 PM by Technocracy Timmy »

Give the Republican NJ, CT, DE, and SC. Give the Democrats MS. I'd say that's about right. We'll have to see how FL, TX, and NY trend from now till 2032 to really say. Florida I think will stay a swing state simply because of older boomer and Xer retirees. California stays Dem nomatter what.

I really want to see what happens with New York, Texas, and Illinois moving forward. Those three states interest me the most.

The white vote in Texas is truly maxed out for the GOP and as I've already stated, going into the 2030's and 2040's, the three variables to watch for are:

1. Do younger Hispanics start trending Republican (whereas they've trended Democrat so far)?
2. Do Hispanics start self identifying more and more as "White"?
3. Do Hispanics reach economic parity with Whites?

If the answer to all or most those questions is no, then Texas will drift further and further Democrat.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2017, 11:19:05 PM »

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Suburban Republican
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« Reply #12 on: July 18, 2017, 12:34:03 AM »

I think history suggests that the next alignment will look something like this:

GOP: "White" Hispanics, upscale minorities (winning about 51-59% of the Asian vote), wealthier voters, Gen Xers and whoever is left of the boomer generation.

Democrats: Hispanics who don't identify as white, millennials, Gen Zers, African Americans, and a slight majority of poor whites.

Two questions marks I constantly contemplate about this alignment: to what extent the Dixie south shifts, and whether the first GOP president wins New York or Texas in their victory. These two questions will determine the geographic underpinning to where the GOP will set up shop moving forward.

This seems about right. Come realignment, I'm curious as to how increased Democratic support among poor whites will shape the electoral map (the South and Midwest in particular). Also, how might GOP support among wealthier whites reshape the Northeast? A split Hispanic vote has me puzzled, too (Could we see the Southwest drift back towards the GOP with this new "White Hispanic" bloc?).

There are so many questions left unanswered. Shifting voting blocs are sure to make more states competitive. It all has me wondering if the electoral map will be much swinger than it is today.
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« Reply #13 on: July 18, 2017, 04:12:23 AM »

I think history suggests that the next alignment will look something like this:

GOP: "White" Hispanics, upscale minorities (winning about 51-59% of the Asian vote), wealthier voters, Gen Xers and whoever is left of the boomer generation.

Democrats: Hispanics who don't identify as white, millennials, Gen Zers, African Americans, and a slight majority of poor whites.

Two questions marks I constantly contemplate about this alignment: to what extent the Dixie south shifts, and whether the first GOP president wins New York or Texas in their victory. These two questions will determine the geographic underpinning to where the GOP will set up shop moving forward.

I don't think anyone fully grasps yet how significant the generational gap in voting preferences will become over the coming years. We had a taste of it, not in our country, but across the Atlantic in the UK. Whether it is 2020 or 2024, the Democratic Party will either realize the enormous untapped potential of millennials and generation Z or a candidate will emerge that forges this new coalition, despite the party. A significant element of that will certainly be the record level diversity of the younger generations, along with their relative lack of personal and household wealth (due to the continuing housing crisis, chronic low wages, and mounting debt saddling the young).

Also, I agree that low-income Whites will be re-incorporated into the Democratic coalition more prominently than they are today. That will occur without downplaying social justice issues, but through refocusing on economics. We never lost them to Republicans - we lost them to disengagement with the political process. The biggest obstacle in the path of Democratic majorities is not demographics or public opinion; it's that the party has completely failed to motivate voters to engage in politics and turn out to vote. Low-income Americans and Millennials are the least likely to go to the polls; whereas middle and upper-income Americans and older Americans are significantly more likely. The former comprise the Democratic base and the latter the Republican one. We have a participation gap that we must overcome.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #14 on: July 18, 2017, 07:10:08 AM »

I think the GOP would be idiotic to not change its path. The ethnic/generational divides that the OP mentioned are pretty close to now.

But yes a realignment like this would happen if the GOP continues like this, but I'm not entirely convinced that asians will be a Republican-aligned group.

Also, I have talked about this before, but what are the chances of a Bernie-dominated Democratic Party making current Republican strongholds in the West (MT, ID, etc.) more competitive and more moderate Republicans gaining in the North with fewer losses in the growing minority states due to the leftward move of the Democrats?
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #15 on: July 18, 2017, 01:22:04 PM »

I think the GOP would be idiotic to not change its path. The ethnic/generational divides that the OP mentioned are pretty close to now.

But yes a realignment like this would happen if the GOP continues like this, but I'm not entirely convinced that asians will be a Republican-aligned group.

Also, I have talked about this before, but what are the chances of a Bernie-dominated Democratic Party making current Republican strongholds in the West (MT, ID, etc.) more competitive and more moderate Republicans gaining in the North with fewer losses in the growing minority states due to the leftward move of the Democrats?

Asians broke for the GOP 50-48 in the 2014 midterms. Now while that was a midterm year and very low turnout, it does show that the GOP have a pretty high base with Asian voters even with their current southern evangelical strategy. George W. Bush won 44% of Asian voters in 2004.

If they shift away from the southern strategy and fully embrace the stance that climate change is real and needs to be curbed then they could easily start winning 50%+ of Asian voters in Presidential years circa 2036-2044.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #16 on: July 18, 2017, 01:29:21 PM »

I think the GOP would be idiotic to not change its path. The ethnic/generational divides that the OP mentioned are pretty close to now.

But yes a realignment like this would happen if the GOP continues like this, but I'm not entirely convinced that asians will be a Republican-aligned group.

Also, I have talked about this before, but what are the chances of a Bernie-dominated Democratic Party making current Republican strongholds in the West (MT, ID, etc.) more competitive and more moderate Republicans gaining in the North with fewer losses in the growing minority states due to the leftward move of the Democrats?

Asians broke for the GOP 50-48 in the 2014 midterms. Now while that was a midterm year and very low turnout, it does show that the GOP have a pretty high base with Asian voters even with their current southern evangelical strategy. George W. Bush won 44% of Asian voters in 2004.

If they shift away from the southern strategy and fully embrace the stance that climate change is real and needs to be curbed then they could easily start winning 50%+ of Asian voters in Presidential years circa 2036-2044.
I see your points and agree that climate change needs to be addressed by Republicans with plans to stop it, but, just wondering, how does that appeal to Asians?

Also, didn't know that about 2014 and 2004. I was just thinking about 2016, for as unique as the election was.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #17 on: July 18, 2017, 01:36:50 PM »
« Edited: July 18, 2017, 01:39:11 PM by Virginia »

The biggest obstacle in the path of Democratic majorities is not demographics or public opinion; it's that the party has completely failed to motivate voters to engage in politics and turn out to vote. Low-income Americans and Millennials are the least likely to go to the polls; whereas middle and upper-income Americans and older Americans are significantly more likely. The former comprise the Democratic base and the latter the Republican one. We have a participation gap that we must overcome.

Millennials have bad turnout rates mostly because they are young. They are also much more racially diverse, and young Hispanics/Asians have the worst turnout rates of all. Young African American turnout was doing well under Obama, but I think that will probably stabilize at a lower rate again.

This isn't really a problem Democrats can solve. Political engagement of the youth slid a long, long time ago and neither party has truly solved it, and that is because I think fundamentally increasing the level of attention paid to elections requires a sea-change in the way we raise and teach children about the society they live in, and what their place in it is. That being said, I think Democrats just happened to come to rely on these voters a lot more once they diversified, and thus suffered even worse turnout as a result. However, I would note, that in the past 3 presidential elections, youth turnout has been relatively good, all things considered.

The only tried-and-true solution here is to wait for these people to grow up some more. The same dynamic that benefited both parties in the past will slowly lift Democrats up as boomers die off and Millennials start voting more.
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« Reply #18 on: July 18, 2017, 06:01:57 PM »

I think the GOP would be idiotic to not change its path. The ethnic/generational divides that the OP mentioned are pretty close to now.

But yes a realignment like this would happen if the GOP continues like this, but I'm not entirely convinced that asians will be a Republican-aligned group.

Also, I have talked about this before, but what are the chances of a Bernie-dominated Democratic Party making current Republican strongholds in the West (MT, ID, etc.) more competitive and more moderate Republicans gaining in the North with fewer losses in the growing minority states due to the leftward move of the Democrats?

Asians broke for the GOP 50-48 in the 2014 midterms. Now while that was a midterm year and very low turnout, it does show that the GOP have a pretty high base with Asian voters even with their current southern evangelical strategy. George W. Bush won 44% of Asian voters in 2004.

If they shift away from the southern strategy and fully embrace the stance that climate change is real and needs to be curbed then they could easily start winning 50%+ of Asian voters in Presidential years circa 2036-2044.


Asians also mostly live in cities are overwhelmingly democratic  .
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #19 on: July 18, 2017, 08:46:53 PM »

^ Recent minorities group tend to follow that pattern. They'll continue to suburbanize from now till the 2030's and onward.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #20 on: July 18, 2017, 11:59:35 PM »



As Republicans, then, are making inroads into Hispanics and Asians, even as the Democrats begin to cut into the Upper South's WWC voters and working class minorities.
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Suburban Republican
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« Reply #21 on: July 19, 2017, 01:06:25 AM »


As Republicans, then, are making inroads into Hispanics and Asians, even as the Democrats begin to cut into the Upper South's WWC voters and working class minorities.

This is similar to what I imagined. Perhaps Dems could make gains in the Rust Belt (MI & IN specifically) by appealing to WWC voters, while increased Republican appeal among Hispanics make the Southwest competitive?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #22 on: July 19, 2017, 04:52:30 AM »


As Republicans, then, are making inroads into Hispanics and Asians, even as the Democrats begin to cut into the Upper South's WWC voters and working class minorities.

This is similar to what I imagined. Perhaps Dems could make gains in the Rust Belt (MI & IN specifically) by appealing to WWC voters, while increased Republican appeal among Hispanics make the Southwest competitive?

The WWC in the Midwest have moved or risen. Now, the heart of them is in the Upper South. Eventually, Utah, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas will all flip. When that's managed, perhaps the Democrats could roar back to life in the Midwest or in the Plains.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #23 on: July 19, 2017, 07:40:27 PM »

Montana is probably the only Interior Plains state that has a populist tradition; the rest of the region (Dakotas, Idaho, Kansas, Utah, etc.) haven't had this tradition unless you're talking WJB going back over 100 years. Since 1964, they've all voted for the GOP consistently (minus MT). And Hispanic growth isn't concentrated in any of those states.

A Bernie style economically populist Democratic Party vs a more moderate technocratic GOP would see most of the Interior Plains (with the possible exception of MT) remain reliably Republican in such a scenario.

The biggest swings from the current map that this new alignment would create would be seen in the Northeast and Appalachia.
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« Reply #24 on: July 19, 2017, 09:52:15 PM »

Montana is probably the only Interior Plains state that has a populist tradition; the rest of the region (Dakotas, Idaho, Kansas, Utah, etc.) haven't had this tradition unless you're talking WJB going back over 100 years. Since 1964, they've all voted for the GOP consistently (minus MT). And Hispanic growth isn't concentrated in any of those states.

A Bernie style economically populist Democratic Party vs a more moderate technocratic GOP would see most of the Interior Plains (with the possible exception of MT) remain reliably Republican in such a scenario.

The biggest swings from the current map that this new alignment would create would be seen in the Northeast and Appalachia.
For the democrats to realign the interior plains, they'd need to go in a much more libertarian direction.
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