Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018

[Oryxslayer]

WARISAN's President Shafie Apdal is winning his seat, P189   Semporna, which he won in 2013 as the UNMO candidate with almost 80% of the vote.

That was like seat 4 called - I suspect that was the reason why. Now please, the rest of Sabah Mr. Najib.

[Polkergeist]

Based on the unofficial leaders on both myundi websites linked earlier in the thread I get the following;

BN   67   (-32)
PH   77   (+28)
GS   8   (0)
OTH   8   (+4)


62 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

[jaichind]

BN 60 PH 70 PAS 6 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

[jaichind]

22-year-old law student P. Prabakaran might be the luckiest man in this election.



 In the Kuala Lumpur seat of Batu which has become a safe PKR seat (2013 it was PKR 58.4% Gerkan (BN Chinese party)) the PKR incumbent was not allowed to contest on a technicality where he was fined back in March for insulting a police officer.  P. Prabakaran might have seen this coming (he is a law student after all) and ran as an independent.  When the PKR incumbent Chua Tian Chang was disqualified at the last minute he worked to get PH's support. Chua Tian Chang and PKR to be the PH endorsed candidate.   There is another MIC rebel in the fray but PKR went with P. Prabakaran.   Chua Tian Chang is now campaigning with   P. Prabakaran to get him elected.



If the PH vote base moves en masse to P. Prabakaran he is likely to win making him easliy the youngest MP elected in this election.

This guy won his seat and at 22 becomes the youngest MP in Malaysian history.

[jaichind]

It is neck-to-neck in Johor P148 Ayer Hitam but it seems MCA's number two is slightly behind and most likely will lose his seat just like the MCA president.  This is a massacre.

Last wave of results did have MCA's Wee Ka Siong winning by a thin margin.   So MCA will have a MP or two.

[Oryxslayer]

BN going backwards in seats right now...

[jaichind]

Looks like that in Kelantan BN and PAS will be evenly split which is another disaster for BN which had expected to sweep the state due to PAS anti-incumbency.  Not clear which front will win the state assembly.  

[jaichind]

So the BN record of unbroken victories at the federal level is finally broken. 

[jaichind]

Finally MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM) begins to tank.  I guess traders are looking at official results.  If they looked at unofficial results  they should have seen it coming.  Of course it could be they are, correctly, figuring that unofficial results can always be changed.  Official ones will not.

[jaichind]

BN 58 PH 79 PAS 8 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

PAS actually did fairly well under the circumstances and there are more seats to come.  I guess they also benefited from swing against BN.

[Oryxslayer]

Where we stand now.

[Oryxslayer]

BN 58 PH 79 PAS 8 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

PAS actually did fairly well under the circumstances and there are more seats to come.  I guess they also benefited from swing against BN.

They might end up losing pretty badly in Terengganu federally though, the locals show a bunch of ticket splits though.

[Polkergeist]

Based on the unofficial leaders on both myundi websites linked earlier in the thread I get the following;

BN   69   (-36)
PH   89   (+32)
GS   10   (+1)
OTH   8   (+3)


46 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

It looks like at the very least PH can form a government without PAS.

[jaichind]

BN 58 PH 79 PAS 8 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

PAS actually did fairly well under the circumstances and there are more seats to come.  I guess they also benefited from swing against BN.

They might end up losing pretty badly in Terengganu federally though, the locals show a bunch of ticket splits though.

True.  When the election campaign started the expectation was the PAS will be wiped out in  Terengganu due to PH vote split.   There were talk of a BN  Terengganu collapse due to anti-incumbency.  In the end it seems the 8 seats there will be split BN 6 PAS 2.  Not too bad for BN considering the disasters elsewhere.  

[Oryxslayer]

He's an interesting thought - PAS probably will be part of the opposition unless they rejoin the coalition officially, but I suspect they would be happy to vote in favor of electoral reform initiatives. Teregganu, and Kelatan especially are some of the overpopulated seat states.

[jaichind]

Not idea what is the hold up now in Kedah, Kelantan and Sabah.  Surely if there are BN plans to come up with some magic they can see now there is no way they can come up with votes to make them the largest bloc. Perhaps their goal now is to deny PH a majority?

[jaichind]

BN 57 PH 73 PAS 10 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

[jaichind]

Wow.  BN falling apart in Kedah state assembly elections as well.  It seems PH will most likely capture a majority with PAS as the main opposition and BN third and far behind.

[jaichind]

Big loser tonight besides Razak is PRC's Xi.  He invested a lot into BN and was a de facto ally of BN in this election.  All that is now going down the drain.

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently there are rumors that these results are coming slow so that Najib can provoke a reason to declare marshal law. But, with the numbers out right now and with Mahatier already claiming victory, it would be hard to survive international and local condemnation with that move.

[jaichind]

BN 58 PH 79 PAS 8 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

PAS actually did fairly well under the circumstances and there are more seats to come.  I guess they also benefited from swing against BN.

They might end up losing pretty badly in Terengganu federally though, the locals show a bunch of ticket splits though.

True.  When the election campaign started the expectation was the PAS will be wiped out in  Terengganu due to PH vote split.   There were talk of a BN  Terengganu collapse due to anti-incumbency.  In the end it seems the 8 seats there will be split BN 6 PAS 2.  Not too bad for BN considering the disasters elsewhere.  

There seems to be a lot of ticket splitting in Terengganu.  Even as BN will win 6 out 8 federal seats PAS seems to have swept the state assembly.

[jaichind]

In the end it could be BN only holds the Pahang, Perlis, and maybe Malacca state assemblies.  Only Pahang is a large state.  Sabah is still a big unknown but more likely or not BN loses its majority there although it is not clear if WARISAN-PH wins a majority.

[jaichind]

BN 61 PH 84 PAS 11 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

Still just mouth eaten results from Sabah.  

[jaichind]

Penang is done.  PH 11 BN 2.  I got all 13 seats correctly.  Of course Penang is so gerrymandered that you have to be moron not to get most if not all the seats correctly.  There is only 1 swing district and I got that right.
 

[jaichind]

BN got wiped out of the Penang state assembly.  The new 40 member assembly will be PH 39 PAS 1.  In 2013 it was PK 30 BN 10.