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jaichind
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« Reply #25 on: August 28, 2017, 04:44:59 am »

DAP leader Lim Kit Siang  wrote a while ago in

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/391680

Some scenarios on how the election will turn out if PAS runs separately from PH 





His Scenario 1 is PAS take 30% of the Malay vote (mostly from the anti-UNMO side) while the is a Chinese  and Indian swing toward BN.  This is what BN is hoping for.  Scenario 2 is PAS takes 20% of the Malay vote of which some is from BN while the Chinese and Indian vote stay what they are.  This seems like the baseline case.  Scenario 3 is PAS takes 10% of the Malay vote as most anti-UNMO Malays tactically vote PH while BN suffers a loss of 10% of the Malay vote due to PPBM affect while the Chinese and Indian vote continues to swing away from BN.  This is the ideal PH scenario.

The result in Peninsular Malaysia then are

Scenario 1   BN 113  PH 46 PAS 6 (BN most likely regains 2/3 majority it lost in 2008)
Scenario 2   BN 80  PH 80 PAS 5 (repeat of 2013)
Scenario 3   BN 50  PH 113 PAS 2 (PH majority overall even w/o Borneo results)

I have my own model which different swings for each district type which I would post soon but the results are similar to what Lim Kit Siang has.  I think the baseline scenario is the most likely at the moment.  Everything comes down to the impact PPBM can have to make up for the loss of anti-UNMO Malay votes going to PAS.
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jaichind
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« Reply #26 on: August 28, 2017, 05:49:23 am »

If we look at the 2013 results and take into account the PAS split where PAS splinter AMANAH is part of PH while PAS itself along with BERJASA and PCM will form the GS alliance.  If we look at the 2013 PAS candidates and group them into those that joined AMANAH and those that stayed in PAS we can then compute the implied vote share of all 3 blocks using 2013 results.

                                 PH              BN           GS        Regional
Chinese Peninsular   70.95%        28.71%      0.13%      0.00%
Chinese Borneo        60.17%        39.36%     0.00%      0.42%
Rural Malay             15.89%        53.73%    30.25%      0.00%
Urban Malay            40.64%        51.83%     7.21%      0.00%
Multi-ethnic             57.36%        40.75%     1.22%      0.00%
Sarawak Muslim       16.12%       78.60%      4.20%      0.11%
Sabah Muslim          28.79%        61.68%     1.83%      4.86%
Sarawak Christian    30.62%        59.43%     0.00%      6.06%
Sabah Christian        39.72%       45.77%     0.00%     12.96%
Total                        41.68%       47.61%     9.50%      0.65%

With seat count being

                                 PH              BN           GS        Regional
Chinese Peninsular      26                0              0             0
Chinese Borneo           8                 0              0             0
Rural Malay                 2               36             12            0
Urban Malay              17               42              3             0
Multi-ethnic               20                7               0             0
Sarawak Muslim          0               12               0             0
Sabah Muslim             0               17               0             0
Sarawak Christian       0               13               0             0
Sabah Christian          1                 6               0             0
Total                        74             133              15             0

Now we can apply different swings depending on the scenarios.  I have 3.  Baseline scenario, Ideal BN scenario and ideal PH scenario.  In all 3 scenarios I assume the BN and PH rebels of 2013 vot share share return to their parent parties.

Under baseline scenerio PAS gets it core vote but loses a bit to PH due to anti-UNMO tactical voting, and there is a small amount of PAS-BN tactical voting where PAS is weak.  There is a small swing in Chinese districts toward BN.  On the other hand PPBM  factor means that there is a significant swing toward PH from BN in Rural and Urban Malay seats.  liberal Malays in Multi-ethnic seats also swing toward PH by a small amount in a continuation of 2013 trends.  In Borneo PH fail to form an alliance with regional parties and there are swings from both PH and BN toward the regional parties.  As a result we get

                                PH              BN           GS        Regional
Chinese Peninsular   65.01%        32.88%      2.06%      0.00%
Chinese Borneo        56.17%        40.36%     2.00%       1.42%
Rural Malay             28.11%         41.79%   30.03%      0.00%
Urban Malay            43.78%         44.89%   11.24%      0.00%
Multi-ethnic             55.58%         39.50%    4.61%       0.00%
Sarawak Muslim      17.20%          77.60%    5.00%      0.11%
Sabah Muslim          22.56%         58.27%    4.04%     14.86%
Sarawak Christian    29.62%         59.31%    2.00%       9.06%
Sabah Christian       37.77%         40.27%    2.00%     19.96%
Total                       43.77%         42.94%  11.82%       1.35%

With seat count being

                                 PH              BN           GS        Regional
Chinese Peninsular      26                0              0             0
Chinese Borneo           6                 2              0             0
Rural Malay                 0               43              7             0
Urban Malay              25               37              0             0
Multi-ethnic               24                3               0             0
Sarawak Muslim          0               12               0             0
Sabah Muslim             0               17               0             0
Sarawak Christian       0               13               0             0
Sabah Christian          2                 4               0             1
Total                        83             131               7             1

Which makes it a mostly status quo election even as there is a lot of churn in the votes.



Under the Ideal BN scenario PAS takes it core vote and have a stronger tactical PAS-BN voting where PAS is weak.  BN make a greater swing in Chinese districts from PH while PPBM impact is there but relatively small.  There is a slight swing away from BN of the liberal Malay vote in Multi-ethnic districts but is made up my a swing of the Chinese vote toward BN.  In Borneo PH fail to get an alliance with regional opposition parties which actually take more votes away from PH than BN.  This gives us

                                 PH              BN           GS        Regional
Chinese Peninsular   61.01%         36.88%     2.06%      0.00%
Chinese Borneo       53.17%         43.36%     2.00%      1.42%
Rural Malay             21.11%         47.79%    31.03%     0.00%
Urban Malay            36.76%         48.89%   14.25%     0.00%
Multi-ethnic             50.58%         43.50%     5.61%     0.00%
Sarawak Muslim      16.20%          78.60%    5.00%      0.11%
Sabah Muslim          22.56%         60.27%    4.04%     12.86%
Sarawak Christian    28.62%         61.31%    2.00%      8.06%
Sabah Christian       36.77%         42.27%     2.00%    18.96%
Total                       38.42%         47.11%   13.13%      1.21%

With seat count being

                                 PH              BN           GS        Regional
Chinese Peninsular      22                4              0             0
Chinese Borneo           4                 4              0             0
Rural Malay                 0               45              5             0
Urban Malay                8               54              0             0
Multi-ethnic               17              10               0             0
Sarawak Muslim          0               12               0             0
Sabah Muslim             0               17               0             0
Sarawak Christian       0               13               0             0
Sabah Christian          1                 6               0             0
Total                        52             165               5             0

with BN re-taking 2/3 majority it lost in 2008.


Under the Ideal PH scenario PAS takes its core vote but loses significant parts ot it to PH due to anti-UNMO tactical voting while there is only a tiny PAS-BN tactical voting where PAS is weak. In areas where PAS is strong PAS actually eats into BN Malay votes.  There is a tiny swing BN in Chinese districts but no real impact on seats.   PPBM eats signification parts of the Malay vote in Rutral and Urban Malay districts while the Malay liberal vote continues to swing toward PH in a significant way.  The Indian vote also swings toward PH.  In Borneo PH forms an alliance with the regional opposition parties which causes some PH vote to leak to BN but made up for the fact that they get to take on BN 1-on-1.  The result ends up being

                                 PH              BN           GS      
Chinese Peninsular   67.01%        30.88%     2.06%
Chinese Borneo       58.58%         39.36%     2.00%
Rural Malay             32.11%         37.79%   30.03%
Urban Malay            46.52%        43.02%    10.37%
Multi-ethnic             56.36%        38.11%     5.22%
Sarawak Muslim       18.31%        77.60%     4.00%
Sabah Muslim          38.46%        58.23%     3.04%
Sarawak Christian    38.69%        59.31%     2.00%
Sabah Christian       50.73%         47.27%    2.00%
Total                       47.26%        41.02%   11.60%

With seat count being

                                 PH              BN           GS        
Chinese Peninsular      26                0              0            
Chinese Borneo           8                 0              0            
Rural Malay                 4               38              8            
Urban Malay              36               26              0            
Multi-ethnic               27                 0              0            
Sarawak Muslim          0                12              0            
Sabah Muslim             1                16              0            
Sarawak Christian       1                12              0            
Sabah Christian          5                 2               0            
Total                       108             106              8            

Post election it becomes a free-for-all with BN trying to form a majority by trying to form an alliance with PAS while PH tries to claw away Christian and Chinese based BN Borneo parties like PBS UPKO PRS PBRS SUPP and SPDP to join them in an ruling alliance in response.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2017, 06:52:12 am by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: September 03, 2017, 12:17:28 pm »

It seems that PH has ruled out a PH-PAS alliance in the next general election although PKR which had an alliance with PAS since 1999 and only broke off in May of 2017 are in continued talks with PAS for tactical alliances.  It seems that PKR does not rule out forming its own separate seat adjustments with PAS in places like Selangor where PKR is eager to retain is control of the local government in the next election.
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« Reply #28 on: September 04, 2017, 06:50:26 am »

https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/12677/

Selangor based Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) which historically has been pro-PKR came out with a “Mood of the Nation Ahead of GE14” survey in Peninsular Malaysia.  It concluded that BN would capture 39% of the vote in Peninsular Malaysia while a PH-PAS alliance would capture 59%.  It did not seem to break down the vote between PH and PAS.

Looking at my 3 scenarios (baseline, BN ideal, PH ideal) the BN vote share in Peninsular Malaysia were 40.9% 45.4% and 38.5%.  So what this poll seem to suggest is that the PH ideal scenario is closer to what this survey finds.   
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« Reply #29 on: December 05, 2017, 09:48:47 pm »

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/opposition-coalition-names-mahathir-as-its-prime-minister-9465798

PH names ex-PM Mahathir as its PM candidate.  His role will be interim PM should PH win with Anwar Ibrahim’s wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, named as candidate for DPM.  Anwar will take over as PM after he let out prison and a law passed to allow him to be involved in politics.
 
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« Reply #30 on: December 19, 2017, 10:12:04 pm »

Invoke Malaysia poll (which is owned by a PKR MP) projects seat count of

PH  115
BN  107
PAS    0

In 3 way fights Malay would vote 41% for UNMO.  But in Kedah and Johor and UNMO support with Malays is down to 30% which means a major setback in those 2 states.   

14% of the Malay vote would vote PAS which is down 11% from the same survey back in Jan 2017.   For PAS voters, if PAS did not contest, then 21% would note vote, 28% would vote BN, and 51% would vote PH.

Chinese support for PH is back up to 80% which is 2013 levels.  Indian support is 60% for BN and 40% for PH which is similar to 2013. 

From a regional breakdown it is

                                  BN      PH
Peninsular Malaysia      63      102
Sabah                         17         8
Sarawak                      26         5
Lubuan                         1         0
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« Reply #31 on: January 08, 2018, 06:17:00 am »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/08/mahathir-mohamad-92-to-lead-malaysia-opposition-bid-for-election-victory

"Mahathir Mohamad, 92, to lead Malaysia opposition bid for election victory"

PH confirms that Mahathir to be its PM candidate with the understanding that if PH wins power it would grant Anwar amnesty so he can run in a by-election and then become PM.

As far as seat distribution, out of 165 seats in Peninsular Malaysia it will be PKR 51 seats PPBM (Mahathir's party) 52 seats DAP 35 seats Amanah 27 seats.  It seems that PRK will contest a unnamed number of seats in the 56 Sabah and Sarawak which implies that PH will still seek to have alliances with various local opposition parties, especially in Sabah such as USA parties (STAR, SAPP, and PHRS) and pro-Mahathir WARISAN.  

Back in 2013 for the 165 seats in Peninsular Malaysia it was PAS 65 PRK 64 DAP 36 seats for the PK opposition bloc.  It seems the DAP still will contest almost all the "Chinese seats" and some "Multi-ethnic" seats with a Chinese lean just like 2013.    Amanah will get more of the suburban seats that PAS got leaving the more rural seats to PPBM while PRK will hand over to PPBM some of the rural seats it got in 2013.  All things equal this make sense.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2018, 01:42:58 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #32 on: January 08, 2018, 01:36:32 pm »

It seems that Selangor branch of PKR rejects Mahathir as the PH candidate.  Also Amanah is not happy with its seat allotment and is looking to contest more seats in Johor (5 seats vs 2 it was allotted.)  I guess Amanah seems Johor is a state where BN will most likely lose ground and wanted to make sure it gets some "winnable seats."   So it seems PH will have plenty of trouble to work out.

Also I think a key factor on if PH is successful is what its Sabah alliance will look like.  If PH contests with USA and WARISAN running seperately then most likely BN will retain most of Sabah seats when this time around BN is vulnerable to losing a bunch of seats.
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« Reply #33 on: January 08, 2018, 01:45:44 pm »

All things equal that PH managed to work out the PM and DPM candidate as well as seat allocation months before the election is surprising and a ominous sign for BN.  Back in 2013 squabbling over seat allocations took place right up to the eve of the general election. 
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« Reply #34 on: January 08, 2018, 03:11:48 pm »


Under the Ideal PH scenario PAS takes its core vote but loses significant parts ot it to PH due to anti-UNMO tactical voting while there is only a tiny PAS-BN tactical voting where PAS is weak. In areas where PAS is strong PAS actually eats into BN Malay votes.  There is a tiny swing BN in Chinese districts but no real impact on seats.   PPBM eats signification parts of the Malay vote in Rutral and Urban Malay districts while the Malay liberal vote continues to swing toward PH in a significant way.  The Indian vote also swings toward PH.  In Borneo PH forms an alliance with the regional opposition parties which causes some PH vote to leak to BN but made up for the fact that they get to take on BN 1-on-1.  The result ends up being

                                 PH              BN           GS      
Chinese Peninsular   67.01%        30.88%     2.06%
Chinese Borneo       58.58%         39.36%     2.00%
Rural Malay             32.11%         37.79%   30.03%
Urban Malay            46.52%        43.02%    10.37%
Multi-ethnic             56.36%        38.11%     5.22%
Sarawak Muslim       18.31%        77.60%     4.00%
Sabah Muslim          38.46%        58.23%     3.04%
Sarawak Christian    38.69%        59.31%     2.00%
Sabah Christian       50.73%         47.27%    2.00%
Total                       47.26%        41.02%   11.60%

With seat count being

                                 PH              BN           GS        
Chinese Peninsular      26                0              0            
Chinese Borneo           8                 0              0            
Rural Malay                 4               38              8            
Urban Malay              36               26              0            
Multi-ethnic               27                 0              0            
Sarawak Muslim          0                12              0            
Sabah Muslim             1                16              0            
Sarawak Christian       1                12              0            
Sabah Christian          5                 2               0            
Total                       108             106              8            

Post election it becomes a free-for-all with BN trying to form a majority by trying to form an alliance with PAS while PH tries to claw away Christian and Chinese based BN Borneo parties like PBS UPKO PRS PBRS SUPP and SPDP to join them in an ruling alliance in response.

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2018/01/02/zaid-sarawak-and-sabah-kingmakers-in-ge14/

Former minister Zaid Ibrahim who was in UNMO and was in PKR for a while but now in DAP points out that "Zaid Ibrahim speculates that a strong showing by Pakatan Harapan parties in peninsula Malaysia in the next general election (GE14) could see a deal being made between the opposition and Barisan Nasional components in Sabah and Sarawak."

It seems that PH is already thinking along the lines I pointed out as what they can do to get to a majority: which is to win Peninsular Malaysia and leverage that to get defections from non UNMO parties from Sabah and Sarawak.

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« Reply #35 on: January 08, 2018, 03:18:52 pm »

https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/31125/

University of Malaya poll in 12 representative districts between July and Dec showed preferred PM to be

Current PM and leader of UNMO                         21%
ex-PM Mahathir and leader of PPBM                    19%
ex-DPM and leader of PRK Anwar Ibrahim           10%
UNMO Defense minister Hishammuddin Hussein    9%
PAS leader Abdul Hadi Awang                              7%

This poll was taken before Mahathir was made PH PM candidate so future polls by University of Malaya should show greater support for Mahathir.
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« Reply #36 on: January 08, 2018, 03:43:43 pm »

Latest Sabah alliance chart

BN
 UNMO -  Bruneian Malay/Muslim tribals
 PBS - multi-ethnic with Kadazandusun and Chinese support
 UPKO - Kadazandusun
 PBRS - Kadazandusun
 LDP - Chinese

PH
 PKR - Bruneian Malay/Muslim tribals and Kadazandusun
 DAP - Chinese
 AMANAH - Liberal Islamic (very little support in Sabah)

PAS - Hardline Islamic  (very little support in Sabah)

USA
 STAR - Kadazandusun - led by Jeffrey Kitingan, brother of PBS leader founder and leader Joseph Pairin Kitingan
 SAPP - Mostly Chinese with some Kadazandusun support - led by ex CM Yong Teck Lee
 PHRS - Bruneian Malay/Muslim tribals - led by Lajim Ukin who was UNMO ex-DCM of Sabah before defecting to PKR and then founding PHRS
 PPRS -  Bruneian Malay/Muslim tribals

PCS - UPKO splinter mostly with appeals to Kadazandusun - led by Wilfred Bumburing who was UPKO ex-DCM of Sabah.  Was part of USA alliance but now looking to ally with PH.

WARISAN - Bruneian Malay/Muslim tribals (strength unknown and could be significant) - led by Shafie Apdal who used to be one of the 3 UNMO vice-presidents. Shafie Apdal is pro-Mahathir and many see as the de facto PPBM in Sabah.  In theory will run alone but could end up joining PH alliance.

PAKAR - Multi-ethnic but in reality a  Kadazandusun  party.  A PBS splinter led by ex-PBS secretary Datuk Henrynus Amin.   Is looking for an alliance with PH.

PKS - PBS splinter - claims to be multinational - looks determined to contest alone no matter what.

PH are in talks with PCS, PAKAR and USA for alliances.  On paper WARISAN  well contest separately but on theory that WARISAN  is really controlled or influenced by Mahathir on the long run WARISAN might join up with PH.  USA's strategy is try to form an alliance with  WARISAN first and then a USA-WARISAN bloc can negotiate from a position of strength with PH. All things equal  WARISAN is very much in demand since since all opposition parties outside of  WARISAN appeal to Chinese and/or Kadazandusun demographics.  WARISAN is alone as an opposition party that appeals to Bruneian Malay/Muslim tribals which makes it an appealing ally since WARISAN will not demand seats in Chinese or Kadazandusun districts.  Main risk for opposition unity is just too many parties claim to "the Kadazandusun party."  Main risk for PH in taking in these allies are that many of these local allies are PBS and UPKO rebels and an alliance with them might ruin post-election alliance talks between PH and PBS/UPKO. 
« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 07:34:18 am by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #37 on: January 08, 2018, 03:53:54 pm »

UNMO's response  to Mahathir being appointed PH PM candidate seems to be two fold.  One the one hand they say "It is as if Israel just appointed Hitler as its PM"  and "It does not matter if it is Mahathir, any PH PM would really be a puppet of DAP."

The UNMO strategy will be the same as 2013 by pointing out the contradictions of the opposition alliance (in 2013 it was PAS vs DAP - Islamic vs Chinese identifies) as well as talking about the risk of  DAP/Chinese domination (Chinese already dominate the economy and now they will also take over the government.)

I am sure soon PH and BN will soon accuse each other of being agents of Israel.
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« Reply #38 on: January 09, 2018, 08:49:00 am »

Ibrahim Suffian of Merdeka Center for Opinion Research came out with some non-numerical projections  based on surveys his organization has done.  His conclusions are

-> "a near certainty" that BN would win and that "BN is 13 seats from regaining a 2/3 majority, may be in a position to regain."
-> "Opposition Prospects Slim to Zero"  since PAS "appears keen to prevent a PH win"
-> PH "may see the loss of Kelantan and Selangor" seat but "non-Malay Opposition seats will not be affected" (which implies DAP's "Chinese" seats will mostly be intact)

His projection seems to have BN losing vote share from 2013 but since in rural and suburban Malay seats it will be a 3 way battle UNMO vs PKR/PPBM vs PAS where UNMO is destined to win.  In "Chinese" and "Multi-ethnic" seats DAP and PKR will do well but it is not enough as they mostly maxed out these seats in 2013 anyway.
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« Reply #39 on: January 09, 2018, 12:42:07 pm »

For the 165  Peninsular Malaysia seats that PH distributed one can now look at the distribution within each seat type (Chinese, Rural Malay, Urban Malay, Multi-ethnic) and compare them to how 2013 PK distributed seats.  Overall the distribution seems quite optimal from the point of view of each party (DAP PRK PPBM AMANAH) having representation in each state as well as routing the right party to the right district in terms of demographic appeal.

PAS 2013 candidates that joined AMANAH I count as AMANAH for 2013.


Chinese       2018    %Chinese            2013       %Chinese
                               Population                         Population
DAP              24            66%                24             66%
PKR                1            49%                  1             49%

No Change from 2013.  The PKR "Chinese" seat is more of a marginal "Chinese" seat from a demographic point of view.



Rural Malay  2018     %Malay             2013     %Malay
                             Population                       Population
PKR               6            92%               10            89%
AMANAH      12            93%                10           86%
PAS                                                   30            92%
PPBM            32           89%

Back in 2013 PAS ran more liberal candidates (which ended up joining AMANAH) in districts which had somewhat less Malays.  In 2018 it seems AMANAH has greater strength it inherited from PAS in places like  Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu where there are just less non-Malays than in other Rural Malay districts.  But with PKR weak in Rural Malay districts and AMANAH weak outside these states above, most of the Rural Malay seats went to PPBM which was the whole point of having PPBM in the PH alliance.  Here it will clearly be UNMO vs PPBM vs PAS.



Urban Malay  2018     %Malay             2013     %Malay
                             Population                       Population
DAP               1            56%                 2            55%
PKR             29            61%                37           62%
AMANAH      12            66%                13           66%
PAS                                                   10            67%
PPBM           20            66%

AMANAH and PPBM wll take on the more Malay concentrated districts of this bunch which makes sense given the weaker appeal to Malays by PKR.   Again, getting PPBM to run in the more Malay districts of this bunch was part of the point of getting PPBM to run in PH.



Multi-ethnic 2018     %Malay             2013     %Malay
                             Population                       Population
DAP               9            39%                 9            39%
PKR             15            45%                16           45%
AMANAH        3            47%                  2           46%
 
Not much changes here relative to 2013.  PPBM is not going to run well here so they are not running in these districts.  DAP has less appeal to Malays so they run in the ones that has less Malays in them whereas PKR and AMANAH  will take on the ones which gas greater number of Malays.
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« Reply #40 on: January 09, 2018, 01:51:59 pm »

PPBM are taking on the toughest seats to win from BN.  For the 165  Peninsular Malaysia seats which are allocated. If we look at the 2013 results based on what seats each party (DAP PRK PPBM AMANAH) got allocated and look at which bloc won (I count PAS 2013 wins where the candidate then joined AMANAH as an AMANAH win which counts toward PH win)


              Total     2013 BN win      2013 PAS win      2013 PH win
PPBM       52             49                     3                          0
DAP         35              4                      0                         31
PKR         51             22                     2                         27
AMANAH  27             10                    10                          7

If you then use by 3 scenarios (baseline, ideal BN, ideal PH) and see the winning PH seats by breakdown you have

                    baseline        Ideal BN           Ideal PH
PPBM                2                    0                    5
DAP                34                  26                   34
PKR                30                  17                   41
AMANAH           9                   4                    13
Total               75                  47                   93

So even in an ideal PH scenario PPBM only wins 5 seats using my model of swings.  In many ways having Mahathir lead the PH alliance makes sense.  If PPBM can somehow outperform then PH can make up a lot of ground in the PPBM seats even if the other seats does not go in an ideal way for PH.  Having Mahathir be the face of PH can perhaps supercharge PPBM performance.
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« Reply #41 on: January 09, 2018, 02:00:08 pm »

PH distribution of seats by state

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« Reply #42 on: January 12, 2018, 06:48:06 am »

Given that AMANAH who only got 27 seats had some internal blowback due the the small number of seats, especially in Johor, DAP has decided to give one of its seats, Ayer Hitam of Johor, to  AMANAH.  It makes perfect sense.  Not only did a AMANAH member run for PK in 2013 (when  AMANAH did not split from PAS yet) but it is the only seat that DAP is running in which I labeled as "Urban Malay."  Given that DAP tends to attract Chinese and to some extent Indian votes and not Malay votes this makes perfect sense.  Now all seats contested by DAP are now labeled by me as "Chinese" or "Multi-ethnic"
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« Reply #43 on: January 16, 2018, 09:31:39 pm »

Politweet came out with their analysis of the election

https://politweet.wordpress.com/2018/01/16/election-forecast-for-pakatan-harapan-in-peninsular-malaysia-ge14/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/16glv67fwRybQxdKS7X1fFC9R1SN0TSGy/view

Their view is that PH will have a uphill climb to win the election although it is more based on a 2017Q1 analysis.

Their view of ethnic breakdown of Peninsular Malaysia


Their estimate of 2013 election levels of support in Peninsular Malaysia

The 2013 election in Peninsular Malaysia ended up being PK 53.3% to BN 46.0%

2017Q1 levels estimated levels of support in Peninsular Malaysia

Has a swing away from BN but most likely is is not enough if PAS runs separately.

Especially news voters is more Malay more the the general voter population


Which means new voters tend to be more pro-BN than the general population


They looked at how PH distributed the seats

This is incorrect.  DAP has yielded one of their seats to AMANAH in Johor

They have ethnic breakdown by seat of each PH party contesting




Which has DAP contesting Chinese seats PKR contesting more mixed seats and PPBM and AMANAH
 contesting more Malay seats.

Which means PPBM are contesting seats which lean BN while the other PH parties are contesting on better ground.




I did my own calculation on BN vote share in 2013 in the seats each PH party is contesting.  It ends up being

PPBM        57.66%
PKR          46.52%
DAP          31.58%
AMANAH    47.32%

Which maps pretty well to politweet's analysis an to previous conclusions I had that PPBM has the hardest seats but if PPBM does well then BN will be beaten.  

They project that if PH does not get a swing from BN, PH will win 76-83 seats in Peninsular Malaysia and if PH gets a 2% swing it will win 89-99 and if it gets a 5% swing it will win 115-117.  This assumes that PAS is mostly marginalized and wins equal amount of support from BN and PH.  Back in 2013 PK won 80 seats in Peninsular Malaysia.
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« Reply #44 on: January 22, 2018, 07:37:48 am »

Looks like PAS will contest at least 130 seats and most likely more once we take into account that some seats will be given to GS allies like  BERJASA (PAS Islamic radical splinter), IKATAN (UNMO Malay nationalist splinter), PCM (Gerakan Splinter, appeals to Chinese), and PHM (pro-APS PKR Selangor splinter).  Core PAS supporters seems supremely confident that PAS will win over 40 seats and be kingmaker post-election.  That seems to be in defiance of all opinion polls and what I am sure will be pre-election tactical voting in favor of both BN and PH alliances.
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« Reply #45 on: January 22, 2018, 07:43:35 am »

https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/33578/

Quote
Up to 128 of the 222 Parliamentary seats will be redrawn in the redelineation, which will need to be passed by Parliament.
Critics claim that the new boundaries will give BN the advantage in GE14, particularly in Selangor, the country's richest state ruled by the federal opposition since 2008.
Studies have shown that the redelineation, along with the disunited opposition, will help Prime Minister Najib Razak regain the two-thirds parliamentary majority of 148 seats that the BN once enjoyed.
But analysts such as Dr Wong Chin Huat, of Penang Institute, argue that the redelineation, which creates more Malay- and Chinese-majority seats, does not automatically benefit the BN.

The basic idea is BN has two options.

1) Go with election right after Chinese new year in March where BN will not have the advantage of new  redelineation/gerrymandering seats but can take advantage of lower Chinese turnout

OR

2) Go with  May elections when the  redelineation is done to add to the BN structural advantage although Chinese turnout will then be higher.

Most likely 2) will take place.
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« Reply #46 on: January 24, 2018, 07:22:10 pm »

For Sabah it seems that PH has offered WARISAN a deal where the two blocs share the 25 federal seats 60/40 in favor of PH (15 for PH and 10 for WARISAN) and for Sabah state elections the two blocs also share the 60 state assembly seats 40/60 (24 for PH and 36 for WARISAN).  WARISAN seems open to it but took offense at the fact it was pitched as PH "best possible offer."   WARISAN also seems suspicious that it is a PH ploy to get WARISAN to be the bad guy and turn down the offer so then the PH can run against WARISAN saying that WARISAN failed to support opposition unity and then scoop up all the anti-BN vote.
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« Reply #47 on: January 29, 2018, 07:06:11 am »

http://www.todayonline.com/world/silent-revolt-brewing-within-pas-warn-observers

Silent revolt brewing within PAS, warns observers 

Political researcher from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Dr Mazlan Ali indicates that his research into PAS supporters show that 35% of PAS supporters gave gone over to AMANAH and another 10% are pro- AMANAH.  Another 20% are unclear about PAS's direction with respect to its pro-UNMO line but in many areas are in direct competition with UNMO.  This block of 20% might not vote or even vote PH to tactically try to defeat BN. 
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« Reply #48 on: January 30, 2018, 07:10:07 am »

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2018/01/30/report-3-reasons-why-bn-will-retain-power-in-ge14/

Report: 3 reasons why BN will retain power in GE14

Financial Times Confidential Research (FTCR) report indicated that BN is very likely to win the 2018 elections due to

1) Another round of gerrymandering to be done in March-April to help BN.  Anwar Ibrahim will be out of jail in June and could help PH on the campaign trail.  BN's plan seems to be to call the election after March-April but before June so it gets the benefits of new district lines plus not contend with Anwar Ibrahim on the campaign trail.

2) PAS splitting the opposition vote

3) PH weak in Sabah and Sarawak.  The report expects WARISAN to make some gains in Eastern Sabah (Bruneian Malay seats) but the report seems pretty negative on PH making gains in Kadazan-Dusun seats in Western Sabah.  I guess they figure that PH and USA will not come to an alliance agreement and split the anti-BN vote in Western Sabah.
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« Reply #49 on: February 05, 2018, 03:26:21 pm »

Every time seat delineation takes place BN gains a bunch of seats  relative to its vote share would imply.

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