Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018

[Oryxslayer]

Finally port Dickson flips back to PH. This was originally PH, but started the nigh in the BN corner. I has been there for a while.

[jaichind]

it seems that Razak failed to show up at BN headquarters for a "victory celebration" party and his whereabouts are unknown. 

[Oryxslayer]

it seems that Razak failed to show up at BN headquarters for a "victory celebration" party and his whereabouts are unknown. 

I'm officially taking bets he is fleeing the country to avoid the expected 1MDB trials.

[Oryxslayer]

https://election.thestar.com.my/terengganu.html This site has different numbers for Terengganu with PAS sweeping. It also has data on Sabah.

[Oryxslayer]

I feel like there is an error on the Merbok MP seat in Kedah. It says BN won it, but it seems to be a PH stronghold

https://election.thestar.com.my/terengganu.html they have it right. http://live.undi.info/ has been behind for a bit since the commission put the squeeze on released numbers.

[jaichind]

BN 71 PH 107 PAS 16 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

Terengganu was "adjusted" to the accurate result

[jaichind]

Pahang done.  It is BN 9 PH 5.  My model got all those seats correctly there as well.

[jaichind]

Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya also done.  PH 11 BN 1.  Again my model got all of them correctly.

[jaichind]

Negeri Sembilan is PH 5 BN 3.  My model had it at PH 3 BN 5.  The two I missed I missed by a mile.  There was a very large anti-BN swing here.
 

[Oryxslayer]

I believe this is the present state of play. Quite obvious PH  now has a majority, how big is question.

[jaichind]

22-year-old law student P. Prabakaran might be the luckiest man in this election.



 In the Kuala Lumpur seat of Batu which has become a safe PKR seat (2013 it was PKR 58.4% Gerkan (BN Chinese party)) the PKR incumbent was not allowed to contest on a technicality where he was fined back in March for insulting a police officer.  P. Prabakaran might have seen this coming (he is a law student after all) and ran as an independent.  When the PKR incumbent Chua Tian Chang was disqualified at the last minute he worked to get PH's support. Chua Tian Chang and PKR to be the PH endorsed candidate.   There is another MIC rebel in the fray but PKR went with P. Prabakaran.   Chua Tian Chang is now campaigning with   P. Prabakaran to get him elected.



If the PH vote base moves en masse to P. Prabakaran he is likely to win making him easliy the youngest MP elected in this election.

The STAR site labels this guy as independent which in theory is true.  Of course he is de facto PH-PRK stand in candidate.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Najib Razak will issue statement, with his Barisan Nasional coalition holding a press conference on Thursday, Khairy Jamaluddin, who leads the alliance’s youth chapter, says in Kuala Lumpur.
"We’re going to accept the will of the people. The Prime Minister will be issuing a statement. Tomorrow we will having a press conference. Whatever it is, we need to respect the will of the people"

[jaichind]

BN 73 PH 109 PAS 16 STAR (Sabah PBS rebel) 1 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

[jaichind]

BN 74 PH 112 PAS 17 STAR (Sabah PBS rebel) 1 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

PH over the hump to get majority.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

BN 73 PH 109 PAS 16 STAR (Sabah PBS rebel) 1 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

Are there any chances that those still not counted mandates will go to the PH?


EDIT: Nevermind, sorry for interrupting.

[jaichind]

Johor done.  PH 18 BN 8.  My model had PH 16 BN 10.  What is great is the 2 seats I missed my BN margin of victory was both less than 1%.  For Johor I think my model did very well.

[jaichind]

Perak done.  PH 14 BN 10.  My model had it at PH 13 BN 11.  The one seat I missed was one of the ones that BN gerrymandered at the last minute.  My model took that into account and most likely overcompensated. 

[jaichind]

Terengganu done.  PAS 6 BN 2.  I had PAS 4 BN 4.  1 of the 2 seats I missed I had the margin less than 1% and the other one was 3%.  So I underestimated the PAS surge but not by that much.

[jaichind]

Kelantan done.  PAS 9 BN 5.  My model had it at  PAS 3 BN 11.  It seems PH took just as much if not more away from BN than from PAS which was unexpected.  There were expectations of a BN sweep here which did not materialize.

[jaichind]

BN 75 PH 118 PAS 18 STAR (Sabah PBS rebel) 1 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

I think there are no more uncalled seats for PAS.  PAS's performance was quite impressive.  They were mostly left for dead by most projections. My estimate of 9 seats was quite high compared to other projections.  But they surged to 18 on the anti-BN swing.

[jaichind]

Mahathir says that he hopes the swearing in of the new PM, which would be him, could be Thursday.  I guess he knows BN too well and feels he need to get his hands on the levels of power ASAP to avoid another more BN maneuvers.  He also said he will work on pardon for de facto PKR leader Anwar Ibrahim.

[jaichind]

Sabah-Lauban at PH-WARISAN 11 BN 10 STAR 1 and 4 seats not called yet.  PH-WARISAN seems to ahead in all 4.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

So presuming PH takes office, what's their plan? After 61 years in opposition I'm sure they'll have a big agenda. I suppose pardoning Ibrahim and having him take over as PM will be the first order of business? As well as addressing the malapportionment as best they can. What other big items will be on their list? Eliminating the structural advantages and support for Malays? Repealing the security laws that have locked up so many activists?

[Oryxslayer]

On your comment, I think PAS can still get Baling, though some sites have called for BN.

[Oryxslayer]

So presuming PH takes office, what's their plan? After 61 years in opposition I'm sure they'll have a big agenda. I suppose pardoning Ibrahim and having him take over as PM will be the first order of business? As well as addressing the malapportionment as best they can. What other big items will be on their list? Eliminating the structural advantages and support for Malays? Repealing the security laws that have locked up so many activists?

Thats the big question on I think everyones minds - will they become another 2009 DP, merely continuing the previous structural plans? Or will they actually have an agenda. One advantage the PH has is that they actually have a committed loyal base with demands unlike the DP, who float from seat to seat based on candidate quality.

Couple major fronts are:

China - PH probably now opposes SCS encroachments and turns more towards the US/TPP allies.

Electoral reform - depends upon how large the non-BN front is, since PAS probably supports this since their seats are overpopulated. But how strong of a reform depends upon future moves.

Singapore - Mahatier previously wasn't on the best relations with Singapore, but now his party has a loyal and powerful Chinese faction in it. Probably nothing much changes.

Scrapping the VAT tax - Big proposal to lower cost of living. Tax might not be entirely done away with, just cut a lot, but this was the key plank that won them the election. Fortunatly Trump's Iran sh**t yesterday will raise the price of Oil, so PH cutting this won't be such a big problem.

Punishing and investigating MDB1 - Pretty simple.