Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018

[jaichind]

So presuming PH takes office, what's their plan? After 61 years in opposition I'm sure they'll have a big agenda. I suppose pardoning Ibrahim and having him take over as PM will be the first order of business? As well as addressing the malapportionment as best they can. What other big items will be on their list? Eliminating the structural advantages and support for Malays? Repealing the security laws that have locked up so many activists?

I think reducing or repealing new GST.  I think higher inflation plus this extra tax is part of the reason for the anti-BN swing.   Problem is not sure the fiances can handle this loss of revenue.  

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

why are PAS so strong in the NE?

[Oryxslayer]

So presuming PH takes office, what's their plan? After 61 years in opposition I'm sure they'll have a big agenda. I suppose pardoning Ibrahim and having him take over as PM will be the first order of business? As well as addressing the malapportionment as best they can. What other big items will be on their list? Eliminating the structural advantages and support for Malays? Repealing the security laws that have locked up so many activists?

I think reducing or repealing new GST.  I think higher inflation plus this extra tax is part of the reason for the anti-BN swing.   Problem is not sure the fiances can handle this loss of revenue.  

Yeah, this is the one key plank. As I said though, Trump's Iran sanctions will probably raise the cost of a barrel, helping balance the budget somewhat.

[jaichind]

why are PAS so strong in the NE?

Lots of rural religious Malay Muslims.

[jaichind]

Malacca done.  PH 4 BN 2.  My model had it BN 4 PH 2.  The two seats my model did not consider them close yet BN lost then.  Seems like the PAS vote was weaker here to the benefit of PH plus a anti-BN swing.

[jaichind]

Kedah done.  PH 10 PAS 3 BN 2.   My model had it at PH 8 PAS 2 BN 5.   The extra seat that PAS won my model has the margin of error at less than 1%.  Same with 1 of the 2 extra seats that PH won over BN.  The other one I had BN winning by a significant margin but was way off.  This was a 3 way state and it was hard to get it right in any circumstance. 

[jaichind]

Sabah state assembly headed for a hung assembly.  Out of 60 seats it is so far

BN             29
WARISAN   20
PH              8
STAR          2

With one seat left.    If BN does not capture the last seat then STAR which is a PBS rebel will hold the balance of power between BN and WARISAN-PH. 

[jaichind]

BN 78 PH 119 PAS 18 STAR (Sabah PBS rebel) 1 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

4 seats left.  3 in Sabah (all 3 PH are ahead) and 1 in Selangor (there seems to be no unofficial count)

[Oryxslayer]

I love the fact that thestar.com.my has a 5th uncalled seat....Klang, literally the most PH seat in the county.

Putatan gets a PH call, so we are down to 3 official seats and Klang.

[Oryxslayer]

if all the remaining seats fall PH - which they could, then the BN/non-BN ratio would be just 4 seats short of 2/3s constitutional changes. BN better keep their whips sharp, or else they could find the electoral rules changing to benefit the non-BN parties.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Will PH make a move to get rid of FPTP?

[jaichind]

BN had this coming.  The should have dumped Najib Razak when the  1MDB broke.  Najib Razak's defense for why there was a excess $800 million amount in his bank account was literally "Some unamed Saudi prince gave it to me as a gift which I returned."  The followup question should be "Hey, I do not get a $800 million gift from an unnamed Saudi prince.  Why would he do something like that?"  Even if his defense is true one could reasonable assume that Najib Razak might be guilty of treason.

[Oryxslayer]

Will PH make a move to get rid of FPTP?

They need 4/5 seats minimum from BN to do constitutional changes like that, and thats if they can coax the entire non-BN causus that the changes are favorable to them. Probably instead puts in place actual bounding restrictions for how far districts can deviate and reapportion those seats not specially allotted under federalism. Or they can create a bunch of new seats/cut old ones like they do in Japan to fix apportionment issues on the peninsula.

It is in every BN interest to get more seats into Selangor after all.

[jaichind]

Will PH make a move to get rid of FPTP?

They need 4/5 seats minimum from BN to do constitutional changes like that, and thats if they can coax the entire non-BN causus that the changes are favorable to them. Probably instead puts in place actual bounding restrictions for how far districts can deviate and reapportion those seats not specially allotted under federalism. Or they can create a bunch of new seats/cut old ones like they do in Japan to fix apportionment issues on the peninsula.

Yep.  Besides PR will tend to help PAS more than PH.  What PH should go for is just have equal sized seats throughout Peninsular Malaysia and also equal sized seats in Borneo even if the two regions might be differently sized due to Constitutional issues.

[Oryxslayer]

Papar is called on thestar for WARISAN
Selayang is called for PH on live.undi

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I've gotta say, Mahathir looks good for 92 (!).

[Oryxslayer]

I've gotta say, Mahathir looks good for 92 (!).

Which is another good thing about the PH right now. If Mahathir was a little younger, he might go back on his 2-year word and try to hold the PM seat. But at such an advanced age, with previous health problems, he probably cannot physically stay in office for too long, which gives the time for Ibrahim to actually govern. That said, he was energetic on the campaign.

[Novelty]

I'm digesting the states results. The swing seems even crazier there. The Mahathir factor really worked in Kedah. Even Malacca fell to PH, which is a bit unexpected.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm digesting the states results. The swing seems even crazier there. The Mahathir factor really worked in Kedah. Even Malacca fell to PH, which is a bit unexpected.

Kedah is going to be interesting. I don't see how a working majority is going to come from 18 PH, 15 PAS, 3 BN unless someone crosses the lines or BN does a deal with their rival.

[jaichind]

All called

BN 79 PH 122 PAS 18 STAR (Sabah PBS rebel) 1 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

[jaichind]

Sabah state assembly is hung

BN             29
WARISAN   21
PH               8
STAR           2

STAR is now kingmaker.  What a victory for STAR founder Jeffrey Kitingan, brother of DCM and former CM PBS leader Joseph Pairin Kitingan.  Not only did he beat his brother in his seat but now he will be kingmaker.  Most likely he will go with WARISAN-PH with federal subsidies at stake since PH will be in charge of the federal government.

[Tintrlvr]

I'm digesting the states results. The swing seems even crazier there. The Mahathir factor really worked in Kedah. Even Malacca fell to PH, which is a bit unexpected.

Kedah is going to be interesting. I don't see how a working majority is going to come from 18 PH, 15 PAS, 3 BN unless someone crosses the lines or BN does a deal with their rival.

I don't think BN has a principled opposition to PH (or many principles at all). BN was just a party of power, and PH was the opposition. I'm sure BN will make a deal with PH in Kedah.

[jaichind]

Selangor was PH 20 BN 2.  My model had it at PH 18 BN 4.  One of the 2 seats I missed I had the margin at around 2% and the other 4%  The 4% one was one of those seats that I figured got more pro-BN due to recent gerrymandering.  Seems like I overcompensated for that.  Seems like I got the trends right but overestimated BN a bit.

[jaichind]

I'm digesting the states results. The swing seems even crazier there. The Mahathir factor really worked in Kedah. Even Malacca fell to PH, which is a bit unexpected.

Kedah is going to be interesting. I don't see how a working majority is going to come from 18 PH, 15 PAS, 3 BN unless someone crosses the lines or BN does a deal with their rival.

I don't think BN has a principled opposition to PH (or many principles at all). BN was just a party of power, and PH was the opposition. I'm sure BN will make a deal with PH in Kedah.

Being this is Mahathir's home state I am sure there will be some defections, mostly from BN, to get to a PH government.

[Oryxslayer]

It was 123 PH there for a while, and then one flipped to BN in a recount. Anyone catch which seat?