Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018
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warandwar
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« Reply #350 on: May 12, 2018, 11:47:38 PM »

So this is how dictatorship ends: with thunderous applause.
Far too early to call this the "end" of anything when old BN people are the ones holding the balance of power, Muthair is still going to be PM, etc, etc.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #351 on: May 13, 2018, 05:05:27 AM »

So this is how dictatorship ends: with thunderous applause.
Far too early to call this the "end" of anything when old BN people are the ones holding the balance of power, Muthair is still going to be PM, etc, etc.

Ehh, the only real prominent BN guy is Mahatier - unlike most one-party opposition groups, the PK/PH has done an excellent job of fostering loyal candidates from the start of their political career. Compare that the DP in 2009 Japan, which was almost entirely former LDPers. I credit this sucess to a loyal opposition base (Chinese/Urban voters) and local control of several safe states allowing the opposition to gain political experience.

And Mahatier is both more concerned about his legacy at 91 (one could argue that Najib was his legacy before this - which is why he returned to politics) and only going to hold office for two years max before PH loyalist Ibrahim takes control.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #352 on: May 15, 2018, 12:39:15 PM »

1MDB report is now declassified.
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jaichind
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« Reply #353 on: May 15, 2018, 01:44:16 PM »

In Kedah the new PH CM is PPBM's Mukhriz Mahathir who is also  Mahathir's son.  Mukhriz Mahathir was actually the BN UNMO CM of Kedah from 2013-2016 until he was expelled from UNMO for backing his father's positon questioning Razak on corruption.  Now he is back as PH CM.  The seat distribition is actually PH 18 BN 3 PAS 15 but it seems that BN and PAS are not challenging Mukhriz Mahathir's right to form a government since it is certain there will be likely BN->PH defections.
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jaichind
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« Reply #354 on: May 15, 2018, 06:18:55 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2018, 05:55:44 PM by jaichind »

I was able do a regression analysis of the results by district in Peninsular Malaysia and derive vote by ethnic group.  I used variables such as rural suburban and urban and grouped states that seems to voted similarly as well as take into account of special candidates that will over-perform their own party.

What I got is

Malays (60.9% of the voting population)
PH  24.5%
BN  44.0%
GS  31.5%

Chinese (29.0% of the voting population)
PH   94.0%
BN    5.5%
GS    0.5%

Indian (8.4% of the voting population)
PH   74.5%
BN   24.0%
GS    1.5%

Orang Asli (Aborigine) (0.6% of the voting population)
PH    2.0%
BN   97.0%
GS    1.0%

Others (1.1% of the voting population)
PH   19.5%
BN   63.5%
GS   17.0%

I also compute that when PAS is not running the PAS vote goes 83.5% for BN and 16.5% for PH.


Below is a chart of estimates of vote share by ethnic group in previous elections


It seems the PH large vote share lead was really driven by Chinese and Indian voters which all things equal did not add that much in terms of gaining seats for PH except for very close BN-PH marginal seats.  PH on the whole actually under-performed pre-election polls in terms of Malay support. What crushed BN was the fact that PAS over-performed at the expense of BN in the Malay vote.  So in the end the PH-PAS split worked to the advantage of PH and not BN which was the conventional wisdom.

If you look at the Malay vote by district type you can get some clear patterns

                   PH          BN           PAS
Rural          17.0%     48.5%     34.5%
Suburban    27.5%     43.0%     29.5%
Urban         37.0%     36.5%     26.5%

PH does better with urban Malays while BN does best with rural Malays.  What is the surprise here is how well PAS does even with urban Malays although that did not seem to make much of a difference in terms of seats.  It is PAS's over-performance in Rural and Suburban seats that cost BN seats, either to PH or PAS.

What is also interesting is in areas of PAS strength like Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu PAS does just as well in Urban areas among Malay voters as Rural Malay voters.  It is BN that has a falloff in Malay support in these states as well as in other states.

On interesting driver for this PAS strength with Urban Malays is if you take areas where the PH is gaining strength (Penang, Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, suburban and urban Johor) PAS does very well with Malay voters when an non-UNMO party is running when compared to when UNMO is running.  It seems this is mostly driven by the BN Malay anti-DAP vote which went over PAS now that PAS is not allied with DAP especially an non-UNMO candidate is running for BN.

This is why MCA and MIC got crushed.  They lost both ways.  The Chinese seats were lost in 2013 and will remain lost.  MCA and MIC won some ethnically mixed seats from 2013 based on the Malay vote and what is left of the Chinese and Indian vote.  This time around there is a further swing of the Chinese and Indian vote away from BN PLUS the Malay vote going over to PAS.  The result was a complete meltdown of MCA and MIC seats.

So again the story of this election is not a Malay Tsunami toward PH.  PH if anything did a bit worse than expected with Malays.  What took place was PAS took some of the BN anti-DAP vote and destroyed BN along the way.

We can now take these breakdown in support to try to estimate the levels of support for each party.

For the PH Chinese vote you can figure 67% are for DAP and 33% are for PKR.  
For the PH Indian vote you can figure 20% are for DAP and 80% are for PKR
For the PH Malay vote you can figure 35% are for PKR, 20% are for AMANAH and 45% are for PPBM.

For BN it is simple.  All BN Malay votes are for UNMO and all BN Indian votes are for MIC (and a bit for Gerakan) and all BN Chinese votes are for MCA/PPP/Gerakan.

Using this you can estimate the level of support for each party and you get.

DAP                             19.6%
PKR                             19.1%
AMANAH                        3.0%
PPBM                             6.9%
UNMO                          27.8%
MCA/Gerakan                 1.6%
MIC/PPP                        2.0%
PAS                             20.0%

The main danger for PH is that around 55% of voter support are from Chinese.  It is critical that for political power in PH to flow to PKR and PPBM to avoid PH being tagged as a DAP puppet.  This was the BN line of attack which did not work because Mahathir.  But if DAP's influence were to match its vote share with PH this will be a problem with PH when it comes to winning Malay votes in the future.
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jaichind
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« Reply #355 on: May 18, 2018, 07:42:17 PM »

Peninsular Malaysia vote share and seats by state

                                        Vote share                               Seats
                               PH           BN                GS          PH    BN   GS
Selangor              63.82%      20.79%        15.22%     20     2     0
Johor                   54.37%      38.59%          6.99%    18      8     0
Perak                   50.26%      33.26%        16.27%    13    11     0
Kedah                  38.53%      30.02%        31.42%    10      2     3
Kelantan              12.33%      39.05%        47.96%      0      5     9
Penang                68.85%      22.51%         8.30%     11      2     0
Kuala Lumpur       69.92%      22.10%         7.83%    11      0     0
Pahang                30.93%      43.15%        25.76%      5      9     0
Terengganu           9.64%      40.68%        49.67%      0      2     6
Negeri Sembilan    53.92%     36.12%          9.96%     5      3      0
Malacca                52.90%     38.11%          8.65%      4      2      0
Perlis                   38.25%      38.82%        22.94%      1      2      0
Putrajaya              35.74%      49.47%        14.80%     0      1      0
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jaichind
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« Reply #356 on: May 18, 2018, 07:46:39 PM »

Anwar Ibrahim says 'shattered' ex-Malaysian PM Najib called him twice on election night

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysias-anwar-says-shattered-najib-called-him-twice-on-election-night

On election night as it was clear that BN was losing it seems Razak played his last card:  A couple of calls to jailed Anwar Ibrahim to try to get PKR to defect to BN and continue his majority.  Obviously it did not work.
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jaichind
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« Reply #357 on: May 25, 2018, 05:12:09 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2018, 05:21:50 PM by jaichind »

Some interesting results data for Peninsular Malaysia

                  Contest    Win       Vote share    Vote share in
                                                              contested seats
PH                165       98            48.65%          48.65%
 DAP               35       33            17.70%          73.18%
 PKR               51       41            17.89%          51.25%
 AMANAH        27       11              6.10%          36.92%
 PPBM             52       13              6.95%          28.53%

BN                165       49            31.66%          31.66%
 UMNO          105       46            22.40%          38.73%
 MCA              39         1              6.32%          21.50%
 MIC                9          2             1.62%           27.51%
 Gerakan        11         0              1.25%          20.00%
 PPP                 1         0              0.07%          11.47%
  
GS                145      18             19.50%          22.41%


If we look at various match-ups we have

Non-Kelantan/                                       Seats  PH  BN  GS       PH         BN         GS
Terengganu      PKR vs UNMO vs PAS         24     19   5    0    49.46%  34.34%  16.15%
Kelantan/
Terengganu      PKR vs UNMO vs PAS          4       0    1    3   10.66%   39.12%  48.28%
                       PKR vs MCA vs PAS           12     12   0    0    60.94%   21.86%  17.05%
                       PKR vs MIC vs PAS             6       6    0    0   50.94%   29.33%  18.99%
                       PKR vs UNMO                     3      2    1         54.67%   45.33%
                       DAP vs MCA vs PAS           12    11    1    0   62.50%   25.41%   12.02%
                       DAP vs Gerakan vs PAS       5      5    0    0   67.27%   21.38%   11.27%
                       DAP vs MCA                     11     11    0    0   82.53%   17.02%
                       DAP vs Gerakan                 4      4     0    0   85.49%   14.16%
Non-Kelantan/
Terengganu      AMANAH vs UNMO vs PAS 18    10     7    1   44.62%    35.51%  19.79%
Kelantan/
Terengganu      AMANAH vs UNMO vs PAS   8     0    0     8   14.20%    33.32%   52.48%
Non-Kelantan/
Terengganu      PPBM vs UNMO vs PAS      36   10   24    2   33.75%    42.29%   23.95%
Kelantan/
Terengganu      PPBM vs UNMO vs PAS      10     0    6    4     8.75%    45.67%   45.58%
                       PPBM vs UMNO                  2     0    2         31.52%    68.48%


DAP has a lot of wasted votes and PPBM is taking on the brunt of taking on UNMO and PAS in their strongholds.
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jaichind
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« Reply #358 on: May 28, 2018, 02:13:54 PM »

The BN defeat fulfilled the RAHMAN prophecy that foretold that Najib Razak will be the last UNMO PM.  The RAHMAN prophecy takes the Last name of Malaysia's first PM.   Then you can map the list of PMs after him with

(R)ahman
(A)bdul Razak Hussein
(H)ussein Onn
(M)ahathir Mohamad
(A)bdullah Ahmad Badawi
(N)ajib Razak

 I think this prophecy has been around for a couple of decades now.  Since RAHMAN ends with N then the prophecy is for Najib Razak to be the last of the UNMO PMs.

Of course one can now start a new MAHATHIR prophesy.  According to current plans to have Anwar Ibrahim take over in a year or two it will clearly work for now.

(M)ahathir Mohamad
(A)nwar Ibrahim
(H)
(A)
(T)
(H)
(I)
(R)
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jaichind
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« Reply #359 on: June 04, 2018, 04:55:29 PM »

I also computed the state assembly elections on Peninsular Malaysia which took place in all states except for Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya which are federal territories. 

                                        Vote share                               Seats
                               PH           BN                GS          PH    BN   GS
Selangor              63.37%      21.92%        14.41%     51     4     1
Johor                   53.38%      38.70%          7.88%    36    19     1
Perak                   50.08%      33.29%        16.38%    29    27     3
Kedah                  36.53%      29.64%        33.73%    18      3   15
Kelantan              10.02%      37.61%        51.99%      0      8   37
Penang                67.31%      22.51%          9.57%    37      2     1
Pahang                28.89%      41.77%        29.11%     9     25     8
Terengganu           7.32%       42.16%        50.52%     0    10    22
Negeri Sembilan   53.92%      36.12%          9.96%    20   16      0
Malacca               51.11%      37.84%        10.78%    15    13     0
Perlis                   34.94%      39.02%        25.93%     3    10     2
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« Reply #360 on: June 05, 2018, 09:39:32 PM »

Anything could happen in 5 years but I'm guessing the next elections will be PH vs GS with the battleground states being the northwest.
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jaichind
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« Reply #361 on: June 06, 2018, 07:13:49 AM »

Looking at the Peninsular Malaysia state assembly election results and comparing the assembly segment results with the federal results one gets a better sense of relative strengths of the 3 blocs.  GS generally got a higher vote share in state assembly elections despite nominating relatively less candidates when compared to federal elections.  The trends I picked up are

a) In areas of PAS strength (Kedah,Kelantan,Terengganu) there were signification GS assembly voter tactical voting for both PH and BN in the federal elections given the perception that at the federal level it is a BN vs PH fight.  This cost PAS a bunch of federal seats.
b) In some isolated districts, as expected, superstar candidates (Mahathir, Razak etc etc) over-performed their own parties implied support in the assembly election.  There were a couple of cases where very weak federal candidates under-performed their party.  In Terengganu  UNMO lost a seat they should have won to PAS this way.
c) It did not make a difference in terms of seats but BN parties like MCA MIC GEREKAN lost a bunch of BN Malay votes mostly to GS but sometimes PH.  The racial identify  of the BN candidate makes a big difference to the BN Malay voter.  So BN Malay support for BN is conditional on correct race of the BN candidate.
d) Again it did not make a difference in terms of results but other than a few MCA and GEREKAN superstar candidates the Chinese vote went solidly for PH regardless of the racial identify of the candidates involved.   So overall PH Chinese support for PH is pretty much there regardless of the racial identify of the candidate.

Had state assembly results been used to compute which bloc would have won the federal seat you get:

                                    Seats            Assembly result implied Seats
                              PH    BN   GS                PH    BN   GS
Selangor                  20      2     0                 20     2      0
Johor                       18      8     0                 17     9      0
Perak                       13    11     0                 12    11     1
Kedah                      10      2     3                  9      0      6
Kelantan                    0      5     9                  0      2    12
Penang                    11      2     0                11      2      0
Kuala Lumpur           11      0     0               No state assembly so same
Pahang                      5      9     0                 5       8     1
Terengganu                0      2     6                 0       3     5
Negeri Sembilan         5      3     0                 3       5     0
Malacca                     4      2      0                 4      2     0
Perlis                         1      2      0                1       2     0
Putrajaya                   0      1      0              No state assembly so same
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               98    49   18                93    47    25

Which I think more truly reflects relative strength of the 3 blocs.

So PH should not take for granted the size of their victory in Peninsular Malaysia and PAS is somewhat stronger than what the federal election would imply.

I think UNMO should really think about the relative value of the BN alliance.  If UNMO assumes that the Chinese and to some extent the Indian vote is lost of BN for the next few election cycles then UNMO should really just dump MCA MIC GEREKAN and PP and dissolve BN.  These BN parties are not able to fetch the Chinese and Indian vote and merely drive the BN Malay vote to PAS or even PH when they run.  UNMO should really focus on being the MALAY party and avoid PAS from encroaching on that title.   If UNMO takes this approach the UNMO PAS battle of the Malay vote would most likely split the Malay vote for a couple of election cycles and hand victory to PH (assuming it stays together).  But on the long run UNMO might be better off or it might face long term extinction as PAS takes over as THE MALAY party.
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jaichind
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« Reply #362 on: June 06, 2018, 08:58:09 AM »

Anything could happen in 5 years but I'm guessing the next elections will be PH vs GS with the battleground states being the northwest.

PH could break apart before the next election if PPBM PKR and DAP cannot get on the same page on power sharing.  Assuming PH does not fall apart then I would expect some defections from UNMO to PPBM which I guess would increase the relative power of PPBM and increase the chances of conflict between PPBM and PKR.   Anyway then there will be a battle between UNMO and PAS over the Malay vote which would result in one becoming dominate and the other falling into decline.  Or UNMO-PAS would form an alliance.  Either way if PH does not fall apart it will be multi-ethnic PH vs a Malay dominated party (UNMO or PAS or UNMO-PAS) next election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #363 on: June 07, 2018, 07:00:10 AM »

It is not totally confirmed yet but it seems Sarawak PBB CM Abang Jo is going to switch from BN to backing the PH government.  Mahathir has not promised to take PBB into PH but have no problems taking their free support.   It seems quit chaotic since the PBB General Secretary claims not to know about it so I guess it would be more clear in the next few days.
 
It is clear what is going on.  PBB's political power which is based on its patronage network has collapsed now that PH took over the federal government and federal subsidies are no longer routed through PBB.  So if PBB does not get back into the federal government network it will pretty bad for PBB in the next 2021 Sarawak assembly elections where PBB could face wipe-out.

Of course it is not 100% clear why Mahathir should take on PBB with their baggage and on.  One reason is that it would make it easier for  Mahathir to get to a 2/3 majority which would be 148 out of 222 PMs.  PH has now 124 MPs.  UPKO and PBRS with 1 MP each are now pro-PH which would ake it 126 MP.  If you add in PBB's 13 MPs which would make it 139 MPs.    Now some magic has to take place.  Other Sarawak BN parties SPDP(2 MPs), SUPP(1MPs),  PRS(3 MPs) could add another 6MPs to get to 145 MPs.  Main problem is PH does not have a strong presence in  Sarawak Muslim tribal areas where PBB dominate so there is in theory no conflict between PH and PBB.  But PH is now fairly strong in Sarawak Christian tribal and Chinese areas where SPDP SUPP and PRS have strength so I see no reason why PH would want to take in SPDP SUPP and PRS and why SPDP SUPP and PRS would want to join their main enemy.  I guess if Mahathir get to 139MPs with PBB it would not be hard to lure another 10 UNMO MPs to come over.   Main problem with that is doing all this would make PH look like it is turning into BN2.0.
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jaichind
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« Reply #364 on: June 11, 2018, 07:11:14 AM »

It would be interesting to look at the Sabah assembly election results vs the Federal results

Sabah assembly
                        Vote share      Seats
PH-WARISAN          47.16%       29
BN                         42.04%       29
GS                          1.33%         0
USA                        7.53%         2
PCS-PKAN               1.46%         0


Sabah federal
                        Vote share      Seats
PH-WARISAN          49.40%       14
BN                         39.08%       10
GS                          1.58%         0
USA                        7.83%         1
PCS-PKAN               1.16%         0

Compared to Peninsular Malaysia there were a large level of vote splitting as differences in vote share between each federal seat deviated wildly from the assembly segments.  Part of it reflects several key personalities and the power of the personal vote.  Part of it could also reflect rigging. Mahathir claimed the day after the election that PH-WARISAN was ahead in 35 seats but after several recounts PH-WARISAN was reduced to 29 seats.  These recounts were the main reason why Sabah results came out so late.

Looking at the 6 BN assembly seats that were won with the smallest margin and then looking at the results of the federal election for those seats does seem to reveal significant  over-performance of PH-WARISAN in the federal seats results for 4 out of 6 such assembly seats even though the PH candidates in those federal seat were not strong personalities with strong connections with their district.  This would seem to indicate that some of Mahathir's claims about rigging in the assembly seats were true.  Of course if rigging took place in assembly seats it could have taken place in federal seats whose results I am using as implied evidence of rigging.

If federal election results in Sabah were also rigged (Sabah federal results were also delayed due to large number of recounts) the the entire scale of pro-BN rigging might be quite significant with the level of rigging higher in assembly results.   In fact looking at federal Sabah results I found seat where BN won by a narrow margin but the Sabah assembly segment results would seem to imply that PH-WARISAN should have won that federal seat.
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jaichind
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« Reply #365 on: June 11, 2018, 04:34:08 PM »

Sabah/Labuan 2013 and 2018 federal vote share by district type (Muslim Tribal, Christian Tribal, Chinese)  

Muslim Tribal           2013              2018
PK/PH-WARISAN     30.55%           48.95%
BN                         61.68%           42.64%
GS                        (part of PK)       2.44%
USA                        4.69%            5.30%
PCS-PKAN                NA                 0.45%
PK/PH rebel            0.98%             0.18%
BN rebel                 1.59%              NA

In 2013 it was BN PK 17-0.  In 2018 it was BN to PH-WARISAN 8-9.



Christian Tribal         2013              2018
PK/PH-WARISAN     39.72%           43.02%
BN                         45.77%           38.73%
GS                        (part of PK)       0.56%
USA                       12.76%           14.43%
PCS-PKAN                NA                 3.04%
PK/PH rebel            1.05%              NA
BN rebel                 0.49%             0.08%

In 2013 it was BN PK 6-1.  In 2018 it was BN to PH-WARISAN to USA 3-3-1.


Chinese                   2013              2018          
PK/PH-WARISAN     64.42%           72.05%        
BN                         34.02%           23.50%        
GS                        (part of PK)        NA                
USA                        1.37%             4.45%            
PCS-PKAN                NA                  NA              
PK/PH rebel              NA                  NA              
BN rebel                   NA                  NA              

In 2013 it was BN PK 0-2.  In 2018 it was BN to PH-WARISAN 0-2.



WARISAN clearly gabbed a large chunk of the Mulsim tribal vote and generated significant swings toward PH-WARISAN.  A much smaller swing toward PH-WARISAN in Christian tribal vote but USA which is much stronger in Christian tribal areas based on STAR grew at the expense of BN.  Chinese districts drifted further toward PH-PH-WARISAN.
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jaichind
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« Reply #366 on: June 11, 2018, 06:43:58 PM »

Sabah CM Shafie Apdal won vote of confidence with 39 voting for and 21 abstaining.  To see how we got to 39-21 the election result was

BN             29 (UNMO 17 PBS 6 UPKO 5 PBRS 1)
WARISAN   21
PH               8   (DAP 6 PKR 2)
STAR           2

UPKO defected to WARISAN-PH but one of the UPKO MLA split into a pro-BN UPKO faction. So UPKO MLA count is 4 and UPKO(pro-BN) is 1.
Out of UNMO 17 MLA 5 defected to WARISAN and 1 defected to UPKO so UPKO MLA count became 5 and WARISAN MLA count became 26.  PBRS wanted to join WARISAN-PH but that application is pending.

So voting for Shafie Apdal are WARISAN 26, UPKO 5, DAP 6, PKR 2 which is 39.
Abstaining are UNMO 11, PBS 6, UPKO(pro-BN) 1, STAR 2, PBRS 1 which is 21.

There were plans for UNMO to merge into PBS and dissolve BN completely.  That has been put in hold because Sabah UNMO leader and former CM Musa Aman has disappeared.  It seems that right after the election where it was WARISAN-PH 29 BN 29 USA 2 it was expected that USA's 2 MLA which both were members of STAR led by pro-opposition Jeffrey Kitingan would back WARISAN-PH.  But  Jeffrey Kitingan backed BN and for a while Musa Aman continued as CM before defections from UNMO sunk BN's majority.  The it turned out that Jeffrey Kitingan had an unknown large sum deposit into his bank account right after the election.  The authorities suspected that that sum of money was from  Musa Aman.  As soon as investigations into this reached  Musa Aman, he promptly disappeared and it is suspected that he has left the country.  While this gets sorted out UNMO in Sabah is pretty much foozen in place.

STAR leader Jeffrey Kitingan, brother of PBS founder and leader Joseph Pairin Kitingan is famous as a party hopper.   Wikipedia's writeup on him is quite funny

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jaichind
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« Reply #367 on: June 12, 2018, 07:14:19 AM »

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/sarawak-government-quits-barisan-nasional

Sarawak BN dissolves and forms new pro-PH GPS bloc.  SUPP splinter UPP which was not admitted to BN for the 2016 Sarawak and had to run as individuals on the BN ticket was admitted to GPS.  This is clearly a move by PBB to head off defeat in 2021 Sarawak assembly elections by PH.  Mahathir seems to be ok with this as it helps him get to 2/3 majority.

Even with GSP bloc now backing PH on an issue by issue basis  Mahathir still does not have 2/3 majority.  It seems at the same time Mahathir has pledged to restore the Terengganu government's right to access oil royalty payments which is a key demand of the Terengganu PAS government.    PAS always has a rival Terengganu and Kelantan factions and now the  Terengganu PAS is pushing for a pro-PH position.  If this works out and with some or all of PAS support Mahathir will have his 2/3 majority to make significant changes.
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jaichind
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« Reply #368 on: June 13, 2018, 07:12:27 AM »

One interesting aspect of this election is the role played by former DPM and Chief Minister of Johor and now President of PPBM Muhyiddin Yassin



You got to give Muhyiddin Yassin credit for being able to be on the winning side every time.  After Mahathir truly retires and Anwar takes over, Muhyiddin  most likely will be DPM to Anwar and could become Anwar's successor. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #369 on: June 15, 2018, 10:23:06 AM »

Sarawak 2013 Federal, 2016 Assembly and 2018 Federal election by Federal district type (Muslim Tribal, Christian Tribal, Chinese)  

Muslim Tribal           2013          2016         2018
PK/PH                    20.32%      14.10%     23.97%
BN                         78.60%      78.26%     70.51%
GS                      (part of PK)     5.06%       3.90%
PK/PH rebel              0.88%         NA             NA
BN rebel                    NA           2.50%       1.62%

In 2013 it was PK BN 0-12, 2016 PH BN 1-30, 2018 PH BN 0-12



Christian Tribal         2013          2016         2018
PK/PH                    30.62%      24.39%     42.47%
BN                         59.43%      62.66%     54.35%
GS                      (part of PK)     0.50%         NA
PK/PH rebel               NA            3.81%         NA
BN rebel                  9.40%        8.43%       2.82%

In 2013 it was PK BN 0-13, 2016 PH BN 2-33, 2018 PH BN BN rebel 5-7-1



Chinese                   2013          2016         2018
PK/PH                    59.16%      48.98%     64.94%
BN                         40.57%      47.02%     34.54%
GS                      (part of PK)       NA            NA
PK/PH rebel               NA            0.64%       0.33%
BN rebel                  0.07%        2.15%       0.13%

In 2013 it was PK BN 6-0, 2016 PH BN 7-9, 2018 PH BN 6-0


In 2016 PH was in chaos and lacked unity which turned off the PH base which did not turn out handing BN a massive landslide.  By 2019 PH was united and with PAS being seen as de facto allies of BN there were significant swing of the Christian Tribal vote toward PH gaining PH and BN rebels a bunch of seats in 2018.    The PH surge in seats in 2018 was based on Christian Tribal seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #370 on: June 17, 2018, 08:58:43 PM »

Mahathir was interviewed by the NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/14/world/asia/malaysia-mahathir-mohamad.html

Some interesting things he pointed out

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It seems that BN was not expecting to lose the election ergo they had not time to cover up their tracks when Mahathir and gang showed up less than 48 hours after the election to take over.
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jaichind
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« Reply #371 on: June 19, 2018, 08:08:36 AM »

Report: 95% Chinese but less than 30% Malays voted for PH

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2018/06/14/report-95-chinese-but-less-than-30-malays-voted-for-ph/

It seems a statistical analysis by Merdeka Center came to conclusions similar to what my analysis concluded a month ago.  Namely

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Which are pretty consistent with my statistical analysis.


What I got is

Malays (60.9% of the voting population)
PH  24.5%
BN  44.0%
GS  31.5%

Chinese (29.0% of the voting population)
PH   94.0%
BN    5.5%
GS    0.5%

Indian (8.4% of the voting population)
PH   74.5%
BN   24.0%
GS    1.5%

Orang Asli (Aborigine) (0.6% of the voting population)
PH    2.0%
BN   97.0%
GS    1.0%

Others (1.1% of the voting population)
PH   19.5%
BN   63.5%
GS   17.0%
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« Reply #372 on: June 19, 2018, 08:31:47 AM »

Is there any chance BN will abolish special privileges to bumiputras and depower the Sharia courts?
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jaichind
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« Reply #373 on: June 23, 2018, 11:34:09 AM »

Is there any chance BN will abolish special privileges to bumiputras and depower the Sharia courts?

You mean PH.  Not while Mahathir is in charge on the pro-Bumiputras affirmative acton since he really started that policy and the main reason why PPBM was brought into PH was to calm Malay voters about such a possible change.  Once Anwar is in charge this might change as Anwar is well know to favor an affirmative action policy based on income and not race.  As for Sharia courts both Mahathir and Anwar are Islamist, although both fairly moderates, so one should expect much changes there.
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jaichind
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« Reply #374 on: June 26, 2018, 12:50:34 PM »

It seems that GERAKAN is also leaving BN.  On the long run this is good for UNMO.  UNMO should discard parties mike MCA and MIC to free them to outflank PH on the race issue on the Left.  UNMO needs to battle it out with PAS to see which emerges as THE MALAY party that would fight PH for control of government   It might take a couple of election cycles to sort this out. 

With Mahathir slowing inching toward a 2/3 majority to shift around election districts, PH will continue to win if they stay together and the Malay vote cannot consolidate behind one party.  It will be up to UNMO and PAS to battle it out to see who that party is. 

I am reminded what I wrote in 2013 after the last BN victory about the risk BN is taking in their strategy.


Anyhow.  One thing is for sure, there is a big risk for BN in using a system like this to keep its majority on the long run.  If and when PK actually wins a majority due to the contradictions built up within year after year of BN rule, PK will then change the election rules.  Even if it used a non-partisan method, unless PK totally fails in its first term, PK, if it manages to hold together, would most likely be in power several terms before BN comes back to power, if BN is still around at all.

Of course on the long run the winner of this entire political realignment might end up being PAS.  Before 2015 when PAS broke way from PH, PAS was destined to be a fringe player where it represents a minority faction of an opposition alliance destined to lose to BN.  By virtue of BN's hold over national government the potential PAS vote is locked up with UNMO.  Now that BN is smashed and UNMO weakened PAS's agenda could now expand and spread in a way not conceivable before 2015. it will take several election cycles but PAS with its Islamic agenda might end up being the dominate party and ideology  in Malaysian politics on the long run.  This is not preordained but this future is only possible with the defeat of BN.
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