Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018
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PSOL
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« Reply #375 on: July 03, 2018, 01:37:05 PM »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/03/former-malaysian-leader-najib-arrested-in-45bn-graft-probe

It’s over, Mr. Razak is arrested.
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jaichind
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« Reply #376 on: July 03, 2018, 01:53:58 PM »

Razak still insists that the hundreds of million of dollars worth of cash and massive amounts of jewelry and luxury handbags are all gifts.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #377 on: July 03, 2018, 02:14:51 PM »

#LockHimUp
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jaichind
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« Reply #378 on: July 03, 2018, 02:28:07 PM »

A history of Mahathir and Malaysian politics since 1998 to today shows that Mahathir should win the Senator Palpatine award.  

1998: UNMO PM Mahathir has a falling out with his deputy and successor Anwar.  Anwar is put in jail and the pro-Anwar bloc within UNMO splits to form what became PKR.
1999: BN suffers a significant loss of seats and vote due to the PKR split.  The Chinese vote which votes on economic issues comes in to save BN due to the Chinese need for economic stability in the aftermath of the Asian economic crisis. Mahathir's authority in UNMO is weakened as a result of losses in Malay support for UNMO
2000-2003 Pressure grows on Mahathir  to step side to make way for his new deputy Badawi to take over UNMO and become PM in hopes that Badawi can recapture the Malay support Mahathir has lost.
2003: Mahathir  steps down to make way for Badawi  to become UNMO leader and PM.
2003-2004: Badawi reaches out to PKR supporters.  Badawi who is fairly religious also appeals to PAS supporters.  Badawi is also a moderate on Malay nationalism and is also able to appeal to the Chinese vote.
2004: Badawi leads BN to the largest landslide in history pulling in support from opposition voters across the board.  Badawi releases Anwar in the aftermath of his victory to try to heal the wounds of 1998-1999.
2004-2005: Relationship between  Badawi  and Mahathir breaks down.  In theory it is over policy over carmaker Proton but the real reason is  Badawi  is able to crave out his own political base and identify away from Mahathir as a result of his 2004 landslide victory.  Mahathir sees his legacy under threat as Badawi  goes his own way.
2005: In order to create his own pressure group within UNMO Mahathir shifts to a radical Malay nationalist position and begins a movement to overthrow Badawi   within UNMO based on this radical base.
2006: Mahathir tries to overthrow Badawi in the UNMO conference but fails.
2008: Mahathir does not quit UNMO but actively works against BN behind the scenes as well as driving away Chinese voters with his radical Malay nationalist rhetoric  
2008: Badawi leads BN to its worst election result ever losing its 2/3 majority.  The Chinese vote swing away from BN was critical.  BN also lost a lot of ground in Kedah which is Mahathir's home state and has a lot of influence over.  In the aftermath of this election Mahathir quits  UNMO to protest Badawi not resigning as UNMO leader and PM.
2009 Badawi  resigns as UNMO leader and PM and Mahathir's preferred candidate Razak is installed as UNMO and PM.  
2009-2013 Razak wants to chart a moderate course the Malay nationalism issue to regain the Chinese vote but runs into Mahathir's pressure to keep the Malay nationalist line. Razak and Mahathir relationship gets frostier but not to the breaking point. Razak saw what took place with Badawi  and moved to a more radical Malay nationalist line to keep  Mahathir in good humor.
2013: Razak runs the 2013 election on a Malay nationalist platform and while there was a massive swing of Chinese and Indian voters away from BN, Razak  won re-election with a reduced majority based on Mahathir's  support and a swing of the Malay vote back.  BN regains ground in Kedah with Mahathir's support.
2015: 1MDB scandal breaks for Razak.  Mahathir breaks with Razak and starts to call for Razak's ouster.
2016: Mahathir and his bloc of key supports (including his son who is the CM of Kedah) moves in to push out Razak and have Mahathir  supporter DCM Yassin take over.  This coup attempt fails.  Mahathir and his bloc bolts from UNMO and forms what became PPBM.
2017: Mahathir leads PPBM into an alliance with the PH opposition bloc and becomes the leader of the opposition.  Mahathir now shift to a moderate position on the Malay nationalist issue so he can be in-line with PH position.  Razak's BN shifts in the opposition direction forming de facto alliance with PAS to short up the Malay nationalist vote for BN.
2018: Mahathir  leads PH to victory based on a PPBM grabbing some of the UNMO vote over to PH as well as an additional swing of the Chinese and Indian vote toward PH based on animosity of Razak's de facto alliance with PAS.

This history shows that Mahathir never really gave up power and is always looking to get it back either directly or behind the scenes.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #379 on: August 04, 2018, 08:45:09 AM »

By-election today in PH heartland Selangor state assembly seat Sungai Kandis due to death of PKR incumbent.  PAS did not run a candidate and toward the end of the election campaign pretty much de facto endorsed UNMO.   Unofficial results has PKR winning with a smaller majority on lower turnout.

In May it was
PKR       23,998   55.60%
UNMO    11,518   26.68%
PAS         7,573   17.54%

Unofficial results has it at
PKR       14,767  64.46%
UNMO      8,054  35.15%
BN rebel       89    0.39%      (I think has MIC background)

In theory this was a victory for PKR that expanded its vote share.  On the other hand PH made a big push for a high turnout which clearly did not take place.
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jaichind
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« Reply #380 on: August 04, 2018, 07:52:47 PM »

Final  Sungai Kandis by-election results

PKR       15,427   61.44%
UNMO      9,585  38.17%
BN rebel       97    0.39%      (I think has MIC background)

Ethnic wise this district is 72% Malays, 12% Chinese and 16% Indians.
Based on 2018 May General election results it seems around 85% of the PAS vote would go BN vs PH.  If we assume that seems that this by-election result indicated a part of the UNMO base has shifted to PH since the General election which was expected. 

PH pushed for a high turnout so this result must have been a disappointment.  UNMO pushed to retain the BN Malay vote plus the PAS vote.  It seems UNMO should be disappointed on that front too,  At least this by-election was a model for a future UNMO-PAS alliance to take on PH.
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jaichind
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« Reply #381 on: September 22, 2018, 05:22:49 PM »

A couple of more by-elections in  Selangor state assembly took place earlier in Sept which continues to solidify the de facto BN-PAS alliance.

In the heavy Chinese district of Balakong (60% Chinese, 30% Malay, 9% Indian)  in the general election in May was
DAP        41,768   77.53%
PAS          6,230   11.56%
BN-MCA    5,874   10.90%

In the by-election MCA ran on its own symbol given the toxic nature of the BN symbol in Chinese districts and PAS withdrew in de facto support of MCA
PH-DAP   22,508   84.99%
MCA         3,975    15.01%

It seems that Chinese support for PH is intact with much lower turnout and it seems some of the PAS support were transferred to MCA.


In more mixed Seri Setia (55% Malay, 24% Indian, 20% Chinese) in the general election back in May was
PKR          29,250   66.62%
BN-UNMO   9,878   22.50%
PAS            4,563   10.90%

In the by-election UNMO withdrew its candidate to back PAS and it was
PH-PKR       13,725  58.60%
PAS            9,698  41.40%

Where PAS was able to consolidate most of the Malay vote in addition to the fall in turnout for PH.

With the Borneo branch of BN in Sarawak completely gone and in Sabah in the middle of of the same Malay policies post general election seems to be devolving to

Peninsular Malaysia : PH vs UNMO-PAS
Borneo: PH vs ex-BN but now autonomous or even sovereigntist local opposition bloc. 

Given UNMO has no real path to a majority since its Borneo branch defected it has no choice but to ally with PAS in hopes of sweeping Peninsular Malaysia in a future election by winning almost the entire Malay vote.  The de facto UNMO-PAS is causing a crisis within UNMO as PAS is demanding that the UNMK-PAS opposition to PH takes on a Islamist flavor.  A faction of UNMO is opposed to this sort of alliance and are defecting from UNMO.     

If these trends continue then PAS will increasingly dominate the UNMO-PAS alliance potentially making PAS the biggest long term winner of the surprise May election upset.
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Polkergeist
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« Reply #382 on: September 22, 2018, 06:50:25 PM »

A faction of UNMO is opposed to this sort of alliance and are defecting from UNMO.     

Are they defecting straight to PH or starting their own party?
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jaichind
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« Reply #383 on: September 25, 2018, 07:24:01 AM »

A faction of UNMO is opposed to this sort of alliance and are defecting from UNMO.     

Are they defecting straight to PH or starting their own party?

The answer to that is quite complex with multiple layers of motivations.  The main narrative seems to be that with Najib Razak in jail and UNMO out of power is expected to implode very fast with the party high command as well as individual UNMO MPs looking for ways out. 

On stream which is most in public is for a UNMO-PAS alliance to take on PH.  Many UNMO MPs are not convinced that this would work or are opposed to it on principled grounds so the expectations are the UNMO will implode further.   This leads to a situation where it becomes a hidden spy vs spy battle between Mahathir  and Anwar factions with PH.  On the surface Anwar backs Mahathir  as PM and Mahathir  insist that he will make way for Anwar "in roughly two years."  In reality supports of both PH kingpins distrusts the other.   

The key fact is that with the expected UNMO implosion many thinks that the relative strength of BOTH the Mahathir and Anwar factions of PH will will more powerful than rump UNMO plus PAS.   This dynamic then leads to all sort of UNMO plots as individuals or as a bloc to try to join  either side  of the Mahathir vs Anwar divide.  We have rumors of

1) Some UNMO MPs wanting to join PPBM
2) Some UNMO MPs wanting to join PKR
3) UNMO plans to merge into PPBM to strength Mahathir relative to Anwar and put UNMO back in the ruling bloc
4) UNMO plans to merge into PKR to strength Anwar relative to Mahathir and put UNMO back in the ruling bloc
5) pro-Anwar sleeper cells in UNMO and PAS would take over those parties and join PKR to form a PKR-UNMO-PAS majority with Anwar as PM leading to a PKR-UNMP-PAS vs PPBM-DAP-AMANAH showdown.

Other interesting facts are UNMO leader Hamidi himself was a key Anwar supporter and most trusted sidekick in Anwars battles against Mahathir in 1998 before defecting back to Mahathir when it was clear that Anwar lost his battle to take over UNMO.  Now 20 years later he might try to re-ignite that same battle and make UNMO relevant again.
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Polkergeist
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« Reply #384 on: September 27, 2018, 08:04:43 AM »

Thanks Jaichind.

How are DAP relations with Mahathir?

Despite being mortal enemies in the past, scenario 5 in your post has DAP siding with Mahathir against PKR ?!?

I know it might just be case of whatever side PAS is on, DAP will be on the other. But still DAP choosing Mahathir over Anwar?
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« Reply #385 on: September 27, 2018, 12:08:26 PM »

So it looks like BN will be officially defunct if UMNO aligns with PAS, right? MCA won't be huge about working with such a clear enemy?
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jaichind
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« Reply #386 on: September 27, 2018, 09:53:33 PM »

Some updates and thoughts on some of the questions:

It is reported that UNMO leader Hamidi has expressed interest in forming an alliance with PH so a national unity government can be formed.    The motivations are clear.  Most UNMO MPs are in UNMO for access to power so the longer they are out of power the more likely they will just defect.  Also making such a move could have the effect of creating a split between Mahathir and Anwar.   In fact right after this news came out Mahathir came out and said that he firmly will keep his promise to hand over power to Anwar in 2 years and Anwar came out to say he totally backs Mahathir for PM as both sense that this news could break up the PH alliance.

All things equal Mahathir prefers UNMO to just slowly fall apart as the the pieces will just join PPBM which was strengthen PPBM within PH.  Anwar on the other hand wants UNMO weaker but intact since UNMO as an organization with some negotiating power will most likely try to from an alliance with PKR which will strengthen Anwar.

Anwar is set to return as a PM as a PKR MP vacated his seat for Anwar to run in the by-election.  It seems UNMO will not run a candidate and UNMO seems to be split between a pro-Anwar faction and non-Anwar faction where the pro-Anwar faction will actually back Anwar in the race while the  non-Anwar faction  will nominally back the PAS candidate that will eventually emerge.

As for DAP, its main goal is to not be on the same side as PAS and UNMO.  With Anwar more likely to ally with those two forces in a possible Mahathir-Anwar civil war DAP will be for Mahathir despite the DAP position in the 1980s that Mahathir was devil incarnate.  Also DAP is looking to expand into the PKR Indian vote base while PKR is looking to expand DAP's Chinese vote base.

BN Chinese party Gerakan already quit BN due to UNMO's movement toward a pro-PAS position.  MCA also denounce UNMO's move but is still staying inside BN.  MCA even said that it might "expel" UNMO from BN if UNMO moves too close to PAS.  But MCA is hypocritical.    In the Balakong assembly by-election the MCA de facto took PAS support. 

UNMO's future seems cloudy.  To be relevant it has to ally or merge with PAS PPBM or PKR.  But doing any of the three would mean a significant bloc will balk and would just reduce UNMO to a junior party relative to its political partner.  The ideal solution that the UNMO high command would want would be a UNMO PAS tactical alliance would push up its electoral value.  Then UNMO forms an alliance with PKR to form a majority with Anwar as PM but with UNMO as the senior party relative to PKR.  I really doubt this will take place since the would need to pull this off against Mahathir who more than deserve the Senator Palpatine award.  When it comes to a double cross,  Mahathir  would be a hard man to beat.  More likely is a slow UNMO decline with more and more MPs going over to Mahathir/PPBM.
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« Reply #387 on: September 27, 2018, 10:12:02 PM »

So maybe Malaysia will become like India where the two main parties/alliances are a nativist and religious bloc against a multi-ethnic, multi-religious, secular bloc?
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jaichind
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« Reply #388 on: September 28, 2018, 09:33:09 AM »

So maybe Malaysia will become like India where the two main parties/alliances are a nativist and religious bloc against a multi-ethnic, multi-religious, secular bloc?

Unclear.  A lot are revolving around key personalities like  Mahathir and Anwar with both, especially Mahathir, likely to pass on from the political scene soon or eventually.

If I had to guess it will be 3 blocs with one around PAS as an Islamist force, one around PPBM, and one around PKR.  DAP most likely align with either PPBM or PKR depending on which one has a more multi-ethic tilt with the other one being more focused on Malay but secular nationalism. A rump UNMO will ally or merge with the more Malay nationalist of these two.  On the long run I think PAS will be the most powerful bloc.
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« Reply #389 on: September 30, 2018, 06:46:30 AM »

Now electoral reform is on the table.

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2018/08/29/reform-committee-mulls-scrapping-ec-first-past-the-post-system/

Jachind, how likely is it that Malaysia may move to PR?
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jaichind
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« Reply #390 on: September 30, 2018, 03:27:33 PM »


I find this unlikely.  This is something you need a 2/3 majority for.  Frankly I do not see any reason why the Borneo parties will be for this.  Borneo gets more seats per capita than Peninsular Malaysia and a PR system would merely dilute their power.  I not see parties like UNMO PAS PPBM or even PKR being for this since each one of them has the possibility of being the dominate Malay party that can sweep the Malay dominated FPTP seats.   This system only benefits DAP where the Chinese vote is concentrated in 30+ seats where DAP can do well but is unlikely to have any real chance of winning outside these 30+  seats.  A PR system where the DAP can win, say 75% of the Chinese vote would give DAP 40+ seats even in a future where the Chinese % of the population declines from 30% to 25% of the voting population.   A similar argument can be made for a party like MIC.  So other than these minority based parties I do not see why anyone else would be for this.

I think PH is better off just trying correct the disparate size of districts within  Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo separately while keeping the balance of seats between these two zones constant and fixed.
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jaichind
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« Reply #391 on: October 10, 2018, 02:24:13 PM »

Port Dickson by election this Sat.  The PKR MP stepped down so Anwar Ibrahim can run and enter the Parliament as a MP.  

The district is 43% Malay, 33% Chinese and 22% Indian.  In the May 2018 general election the result was

PH-PKR    59.06%
BN-MIC   30.19%
PAS         10.75%

UNMO decided to boycott the election to protest Anwar using this maneuver to get back into Parliament.    But former UNMO Negeri Sembilan CM Abdul Samad has decided to run as an independent.  

The candidates are
PH-PKR           Anwar
PAS
UNMO rebel     Abdul Samad
Stevie Chan  (has anti-BN opposition background)
Bukhari Azlan (famous Anwar distracter)
Two other minor candidates (both Chinese)

There are a bunch undercurrents.
1) Steve Chan has an anti-BN background but get is running.  There are rumors that it was none other than Mahathir that is behind his candidacy to split the anti-BN vote.
2) It is rumored that UNMO boycott is because the pro-Anwar faction of UNMO does not want to run a candidate to ensure that Anwar gets in and is indebted to the pro-Anwar faction of UNMO,
3)  Bukhari Azlan was a former personal assistant  of Anwar with clear anti-BN views but then came out in 2008 accusing Anwar of sodomy which ended with Anwar being put in jail in 2015.  It was always suspected that he was bribed by BN.  Anyway he is running just to remind the voters about this case.
4) Anwar's wife and de jure leader of PKR during the May 2018 election Wan Azizah Wan Ismail came out and said that she was offered the PM role.  It is a subtle hint at Mahathir that Anwar deserves credit for putting Mahathir back in as PM.
5) With rumors of tensions between Mahathir and Anwar as Anwar is about to re-enter Parliament, both side played up the comradery between the two side.  Both appeared at a campaign rally together (for the first time) where Anwar said of Mahathir "'I love him as a father and a leader' in order to play down any threat to Mahathir by his re-entry into Parliament.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #392 on: October 13, 2018, 06:25:07 PM »

Anwar Ibrahim wins Port Dickson by-election by a landslide with decent margin and turnout.

In May 2018 general election it was

PH-PKR    59.06%   36,225
BN-MIC   30.19%    18,515   
PAS         10.75%     6,594

The by-election result was
PH-PKR        71.3%    31,016  (Anwar Ibrahim)
PAS             17.1%     7,456
UNMO rebel   9.7%     4,230  (ex-UNMO CM of Negeri Sembilan)
Ind               0.8%        337  (anti-BN background)
Ind               0.5%        214
Ind               0.4%        154
Ind               0.2%          82  (Anwar distracter, accused Anwar of sodomy back in 2008)

Beyond the solid performance of Anwar is the growth of PAS which is picking up more UNMO Malay support despite an former CM running.
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« Reply #393 on: October 13, 2018, 07:43:18 PM »

Well so much for the "plots" to keep Anwar out of Parliament.

The Mahathir-Anwar dance reaches the next phase...

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« Reply #394 on: October 13, 2018, 10:22:06 PM »

So maybe Malaysia will become like India where the two main parties/alliances are a nativist and religious bloc against a multi-ethnic, multi-religious, secular bloc?

Unclear.  A lot are revolving around key personalities like  Mahathir and Anwar with both, especially Mahathir, likely to pass on from the political scene soon or eventually.

If I had to guess it will be 3 blocs with one around PAS as an Islamist force, one around PPBM, and one around PKR.  DAP most likely align with either PPBM or PKR depending on which one has a more multi-ethic tilt with the other one being more focused on Malay but secular nationalism. A rump UNMO will ally or merge with the more Malay nationalist of these two.  On the long run I think PAS will be the most powerful bloc.

Why do you think the Islamist bloc (PAS) will be more powerful than the Malay nationalist (PPBM) and the cosmopolitan/multi-racial (PKR) blocs?
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jaichind
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« Reply #395 on: October 14, 2018, 07:21:44 AM »

So maybe Malaysia will become like India where the two main parties/alliances are a nativist and religious bloc against a multi-ethnic, multi-religious, secular bloc?

Unclear.  A lot are revolving around key personalities like  Mahathir and Anwar with both, especially Mahathir, likely to pass on from the political scene soon or eventually.

If I had to guess it will be 3 blocs with one around PAS as an Islamist force, one around PPBM, and one around PKR.  DAP most likely align with either PPBM or PKR depending on which one has a more multi-ethic tilt with the other one being more focused on Malay but secular nationalism. A rump UNMO will ally or merge with the more Malay nationalist of these two.  On the long run I think PAS will be the most powerful bloc.

Why do you think the Islamist bloc (PAS) will be more powerful than the Malay nationalist (PPBM) and the cosmopolitan/multi-racial (PKR) blocs?

Well, I was talking about Peninsular Malaysia.  In Peninsular Malaysia, there are two trends.  First, demographically Malays are growing in relative population.  Second, the continued economic gap between Malays and Chinese/Indians will continue to create Balkanization.  A big tent BN alliance that favors Malays but put up a front of a Multi-ethnic alliance could contain this Balkanization but with the Chinese and then Indians bailing on BN finally led to the defeat of BN.  As a result a Malay consolidation is inevitable.  PAS of all the Malay parties has the most devoted bloc of Malay voters and other Malay supporters of UNMO and PPBM will eventually migrate toward PAS as the most likely scenario even if they are not that hardcore Muslim as an imperative for the Malay vote to consolidate.

Note that if this were come to past then Borneo will start to pull away. PAS brand of politics has no market in Borneo and is viewed with great suspicion.    BN being the ruling bloc contained racial conflict in  Peninsular Malaysia and also contained the secessionist tendencies of Borneo.   If PAS becomes one of the two poles in Peninsular Malaysia and show it can become the ruling party there will lead the Borneo political forces to turn from automatism to sovereignism to even successionism.   
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