Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018

[jaichind]

Next general election is in theory 2018 but the word is that it will get called sometime in Sept 2017 for Oct of Nov 2017.

Three main blocs

Ruling BN
1)  UMNO - United Malays National Organization - Party of mostly Malays and Malay nationalism
2)  MCA - Malaysian Chinese Association - Establishment Chinese party (from Malay branch of KMT)
3)  MIC-  Malaysian Indian Congress - Establishment Indian Party
4)  PBB - Sarawak regional party
5)  SPDP - Sarawak regional party
6)  PRS - Sarawak regional party
7)  SUPP - Sarawak Chinese regional party
8 )  Gerakan - MCA splinter - Chinese based
9)  PRBS - Sabah regional party
10)  UPKO - Sabah regional party
11)  LDP - Sabah Chinese regional party
12) PBS - Sabah regional party

PH bloc
1) PRK - People's Justice Party - Secular/Liberal Catchall opposition party but mostly Malays
2) DAP - Democratic Action Party - Chinese opposition party (from Malay branch of Singapore PAP)
3) PPBM - UMNO splinter lead by former UMNO PM Mahathir
4) AMANAH - PAS Liberal Islamic splinter
 
GS bloc
1) PAS - Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party - Islamic party for Malays
2) BERJASA - PAS splinter
3) IKATAN - UNNO splinter

In 2013 it was BN bloc vs PR bloc where PR was RPK DAP and PAS.  PR won the popular vote and won the densely populated areas but BN won the seat rich Sabah and  Sarawak  areas.

Since 2013 PR fell apart due to conflict between PAS and DAP.   When AMANAH  split from PAS and joined PR, PAS bolted from PR.  In the meantime UMNO elder and ex-PM Mahathir having failed to install his son ins the power circule of the ruling UMNO bolted from the party and formed PPBM.  After some fits a starts the PH bloc was formed to include PRK DAP PPBM and AMANAH.

The leader of PRK is jailed Anwar Ibrahim who was Mahathir's right hand man in UMNO in the late 1980s to the late 1990s.  The they had a falling out when Anwar Ibrahim was trying to oust Mahathir to try to capture power for himself.  Anwar Ibrahim was then expelled from UMNO and jailed for "sodomy."   Anwar Ibrahim then formed PRK with his wife which he lead on and off between his various stints in jail over "sodomy."  He is in jail right now.  

Anwar Ibrahim  and Mahathir were special enemies until Mahathir himself left UMNO and the two were recently reconciled.  The Chairman of the PH bloc is now Mahathir which is ironic because for years Mahathir WAS UMNO and now he chairs a bloc dedicated to defeat UMNO.   The President of PH is Wan Azizah Wan Ismail who is  Anwar Ibrahim's wife.  The bloc is projecting Anwar Ibrahim as the PM candidate.  The most powerful party in PH is actually DAP but DAP accepts that as a Chinese based party it can never capture power on its own without a pan-Malay as its ally. Mahathir as an ally is causing rumbles in DAP which was the most vocal of Mahathir's opponents in the 1980s and 1990s.

What is also funny is that with DAP in PH the majority of the Chinese vote will go PH as MAC and Gerakan have been losing votes for DAP over the years as the Chinese vote have turned against BN.  
But at the international level BN is seen pro-PRC and PH is seen as pro-USA and that trend has accelerated last few years.  Mahathir main attack against UMNO besides corruption is that UMNO has become a puppet of PRC interests and has clear anti-Chinese overtones.  It is just pretty ironic that for tactical reasons Mahathir, Anwar Ibrahim, and DAP finds itself in a separate camp.  

In many ways PH is in a good position to win.  BN is dogged by scandal that reaches to the top with PM and UMNO leader Najib Razak.  But GS bloc which is really just PAS could split the anti-BN vote.  Of course with PAS, shed of its Liberal wing, is will run a fairly nationalist-Islamist campaign and might draw a lot of BN votes.  Mahathir being in the PH camp and also turning up the Malay nationalist line will have unpredictable results on where the Malay nationalist vote will go and if the Chinese vote might swing back to BN.

BN's hope to win  has to be a split of anti-BN vote in Peninsular Malaysia where there is no hope of BN winning anywhere close to the majority of votes and sweep Sarawak and Sabah which is still dominated by BN.  In both Sarawak and Sabah not only does BN have co-opted the local tribal vote they have mostly retained the Chinese vote.

[jaichind]

My writeup from 2013 election results

My tabluation of results


BN                    47.61%  (-2.66)        130    (-7)
   UNMO            29.32% (-0.01)         88    (+9)
   MCA                 7.98% (-2.37)           7      (-8)
   MIC                  2.64% (+0.43)           4     (+1)
   PBB                  2.10% (+0.48)         14     (-)   Sarawak regional tribal party
   Gerakan           1.54% (-0.73)            1    (-1)  Small liberal Chinese party
   SUPP                1.21% (-0.26)            1    (-5)  Sarawak Chinese party
   Others             2.82% (-0.20)         18    (-3)  Various Sabah and Sarawak regional parties

PK                   50.88%  (+4.48)          89   (+7)
   DAP              15.71%  (+1.94)          38 (+10)
   PAS              14.78%   (+0.73)         21    (-2)
   PKR              20.39%   (+1.81)         30    (-1)

The BN Chinese parties got killed and bled votes and seats to PK.  One thing that is intersteing is that both PAS and PKR also gained votes.  I suspect it is also part of the Chinese swing toward PK as PKR also ran Chinese candidates in some districts againist BN Chinese parties.  Also independent votes declined due to the closeness and polorization of the race.

What gave BN victory was the Sabah and Sarawak  vote.  The Chinese vote in Sarawak was lost to PK but the rest of state held solid for BN.  BN also contained losses in Johor.

[jaichind]

Invoke Group which is pro-opposition (pro-PKR) to be exactly came up with a survey (to be taken with a large grain of salt)

http://rafiziramli.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/I-CPI-Survey-On-Voters-Sentiment-July-2017-20072017-Media-Release.pdf


Malays (including Sarawak and Sabah tribals):  36% for PH, 35% for BN 14% for PAS.   
Chinese: 53% for PH, 22% for BN, 1% for PAS
Indians: 42% for PH, 44% BN, 3% for PAS

These numbers suggest a PH victory.  Of course if the election result would start to look like this there will be a BN-PAS de facto tactical or strategic alliance to block PH.

[Cynthia]

Invoke Group which is pro-opposition (pro-PKR) to be exactly came up with a survey (to be taken with a large grain of salt)

http://rafiziramli.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/I-CPI-Survey-On-Voters-Sentiment-July-2017-20072017-Media-Release.pdf


Malays (including Sarawak and Sabah tribals):  36% for PH, 35% for BN 14% for PAS.  
Chinese: 53% for PH, 22% for BN, 1% for PAS
Indians: 42% for PH, 44% BN, 3% for PAS

These numbers suggest a PH victory.  Of course if the election result would start to look like this there will be a BN-PAS de facto tactical or strategic alliance to block PH.

I doubt PH could win with less than 57% of the two-party vote against BN on the condition that PAS joins PH to block BN. It would be extremely funny if PAS goes into a coalition with BN after trying to take the latter down for so many years.

BN taking 22% of Chinese vote is pretty bad for PH given PR took at least 75% of Chinese votes in the last election. Also the Indians number seem extraordinarily bad for PH as well.

[jaichind]

Some basic info of titans of Malaysia politics.

Mahathir Mohamad

Ex-PM and ex-leader of UMNO.   A medical doctor so often called Doctor M.  Joined UMNO at an early as a Malay nationalist firebrand directing his target mostly at the economically dominate Chinese community   age but fan afoul UMNO PM Abdul Rahman and was expelled.  Rejoined UMNO after the death of Abdul Rahman.  Rose to the top and became UMNO leader and PM in 1981.  Had to deal with the vertical split of UMNO led by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah who then formed UMNO splinter S46 when his attempt to overthrow Mahathir failed.  Promoted Anwar Ibrahim as his successor but had a falling out with which led to the ouster of Anwar Ibrahim from UMNO and jailed.  Promoted Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as his successor in 2003 but had a falling out by 2005.  By 2006 was leading a movement in UMNO to try to topple Abdullah Ahmad Badawi which failed and Mahathir quit UMNO vowing not to return until Badawi is ousted. After UMNO's setback in 2008 Badawi resigned in 2009 and we replace by  Najib Razak with Mahathir's support who rejoined UMNO.  Mahathir spent the next few years promoting his son Mukhriz Mahathir to be part of the apex UMNO leadership.  After it was clear that Najib Razak would not promote Mukhriz Mahathir  to the be part of the core UMNO leadership Mahathir bolted from UMNO criticizing corruption charges which  Najib Razak were accused of.  Mahathir at age 91 then formed the UMNO Malay nationalist splinter PPBM which became part of the PH bloc.


Anwar Ibrahim

A Liberal Islamic activist that was very critical of UMNO as well as a founder of a youth Islamic organisation.  In 1982 he shocked his activist friends by accepting Mahathir's invitation to join UMNO.  With the help of Mahathir rose in ranks of UMNO until he became DPM in 1993 and clearly being groomed by Mahathir to be his successor.   By 1998 it seems Anwar was getting impatient at Mahathir not stepping aside for him to take over UMNO and the PM position.  He led a failed attempt to topple Mahathir and was expelled from UMNO.  He was then charged with sodomy and jailed.  When Abdullah took over as leader of UMNO and PM he released Anwar in 2004 which was one of the reasons why Abdullah broke with Mahathir.  Anwar proceeded to form what became PKR which was a liberal Malay party.  He then formed an alliance between PKR and the Islamic PAS and Chinese-based DAP.  Anwar then was repeating put in release from jail, all over the charges of sodomy.    While he is in jail his wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail led PKR and help lead the anti-BN opposition bloc.  He is current in jail right now so Wan Azizah Wan Ismail is currently the leader of PKR.


Najib Razak

Current leader of UMNO, the BN alliance, and is the PM of Malaysia.  Najib is the son of the Second Malaysia PM Abdul Razak Hussein, nephew of the Third Malaysia PM Hussein Onn, protege and now enemy of Fourth Malaysia PM  Mahathir Mohamad, and was the deputy of the Fifth Malaysia PM Abdullah Ahmad Badawi before overthrowing him and is the Sixth PM of Malaysia.  He is accused of stealing billions from the sovereign wealth fund 1MDB of which he is the chairman.  It seems there was a transfer of at least $700 million from the fund to  Najib personal bank account.  Najib denies this and claims the money are gifts.   This has led to massive anti-Najib demonstrations and also provoked Mahathir to quit UMNO and call for the ouster of Najib. 


Lim Kit Siang

Long time leader of the Chinese based DAP and active in politics since the 1950s as an long time opponent of UMNO.  Jailed several times since the 1960s for opposition to UMNO. Was a firm opponent of Mahathir during his rule and as arrested in 1987 as part of the Mahathir crackdown on the opposition during the UMNO civil war.  Used as a boogeyman by UMNO and Mahathir in particular  as part of a Chinese conspiracy to take over Malaysia via proxy of parties/leaders like PKR/Anwar which  are projected to be puppets of Lim and DAP.  As a result Lim goes out of his way to make PKR/Anwar the leader of the anti-UMNO opposition bloc although could not prevent UMNO with Mahathir support in 2013 to polarize the Malay vote around UMNO as a part of stop-Lim movement to beat back the PK challenge.

[jaichind]

What is funny about Mahathir and his PPBM joining the opposition PH bloc and becoming its chairman is that everyone is flipflopping their decades long positions.

1) Mahathir and Anwar which became deadly enemies in 1998 reconciled and restored their "father-son" like relationship.  Mahathir now claims that he will lead PH to victory and then work to free Anwar from jail so Anwar and become PM.  Mahathir now says he made a mistake in not making Anwar PM who he now feels is very qualified to be PM.  Mahathir does not seem to rule out running in the election and becoming caretaker PM until Anwar can be freed and be made PM
2) Parties like PKR and DAP are now talking about economic prosperity of Malaysia under Mahathir and that a Mahathir led opposition bloc will restore the Golden age of the 1980s.  Even Mahathir's long time enemy Lim is praising Mahathir and vice versa. 
3) UMNO now claim that all the current economic problems in Malaysia are because of Mahathir policies.  They also criticize Mahathir for splitting the UMNO in 1987 and said that UMNO was never authoritarian or corrupt until Mahathir took over.   The UMNO are now working to remove the negative legacy of Mahathir's reign.
4) Mahathir and UNMO are taking turns attacking each other on the topic of the Chinese takeover conspiracy.   Mahathir says UMNO are selling out Malaysia to the PRC and turning Malaysia into a PRC economic colony.  UMNO claim that Mahathir is now under the control of Lim and DAP and that electing a Mahathir led PH is really a proxy for DAP and Chinese control of Malaysia.  Both attacks are clearly attempts at capturing the PAS tactical vote.

[jaichind]

For someone like me who like to follow Malaysia politics what has taken place last year culminating in  PPBM joining PH and Mahathir becoming chairman of PH is literally turning politics upside down.  The 2017/2018 election will be the mother of all Malaysian elections.  It would be literally be like if FDR lived and then formed his on Dem splinter party, joining forces with the Goldwater GOP to take on Dem President Johnson running for reelection. 

[jaichind]

In addition to the Chinese boogeyman conspiracy political discourse another key part of the Malay political discourse is the Israel conspiracy.    UMNO and especially Mahathir are famous for targeting Israel internationally as well as identifying Israel behind all sorts of anti-Malaysia plots.  The Anwar PKR splinter and opposition alliance was accused by UMNO and Mahathir as being funded by and organized by Israel in addition to being puppets of the Chinese in the form of Lim DAP.  Anwar seems to carried on this tradition.   Anwar blamed his repeated jailing as part of a UMNO-Mahathir-Israel conspiracy.  For some unknown reason Anwar also claims GOP Senator John McCain  as a key part of this conspiracy.

[jaichind]

There are reports that BN officials have been warning civil servants that they have means of finding out if public servants vote for PH.  Mahathir came out and said that during his 22 years as PM, he had never heard of such a thing and that civil servants should have no fears of voting for PH, especially when PH is going to win.

[jaichind]

A more in depth view of 2008 and 2013 election results and slicing the data can point to what the BN and PH strategies might be.  

First 2013 and 2008 election results by party and the bloc they belong to with vote and in seats contested and overall vote share


  
1) In several seats (all in Borneo) in 2008 the PH parities (DAP PRK PAS) did not have perfect alliances so they contested some seats outside the alliance.   This was mostly fixed in 2013 with only 1 such seat (on the Borneo island of Labuan)
2) Berjasa is a PAS splinter.  
3) Of course BN won the seat count comfortably despite losing the vote share to the opposition by over 3%.  How that took place can be seen if we split the chart into Peninsular and Borneo seats.

For Peninsular it is

  
1) Here the opposition bloc in 2013 beat BN by over 7% yet lost the seat count 85-80
2) The seat count is identical in 2013 and 2008 even though the vote share in 2008 was pretty much identical.  Even though BN lost the vote share count in 2008 in reality it is a tie since the opposition bloc did not contest a safe UMNO seat and if they did the vote share would be the same if not a slight BN advantage.  

Of course the real cause of the comfortable BN victory in 2013 was Borneo which was

 
Borneo is made up of Sarawak, Sabah and the tiny island of Labuan.
1) UMNO mostly does not run here and mostly formed alliance with various tribal, Chinese and other multi-ethnic local parties.  In Sabah UMNO is the party of Burnei Malays which in many ways one can also count as tribals.
2) Most BN parties were former opposition parties that BN/UMNO has co-opted where BN provides subsidies to the more economic backward Borneo areas and provides power sharing with the local tribal and Chinese based parties.
3) DAP PKR and PAS are really  Peninsular based opposition parties but given the large number of seats Borneo represents have been moving into Borneo starting around 15 years ago and have gained vote share over the years.  This merely help consolidate the local BN parities to be bound to UMNO.
4) SAPP is a muliti-ethnic local party in Sabah that was part of BN in 2008 but left BN in 2013 without joining the opposition bloc.  
5) SWP is a Sarawak Leftist regional opposition party that ran separately
6) STAR is a pan-Borneo local opposition party that ran separately

Unless the opposition bloc can find a way to leverage its higher vote share to gain more seats Peninsular Malaysia then it must make a breakthrough in Borneo if it hope to win in 2018.

[jaichind]

Another way to slice the election data is to break up the districts into different types.   I created the following list of types: Chinese, Rural Malay, Urban Malay, Multi-ethnic, Tribal-Sarawak and Tribal-Sabah.

I define a district to be "Chinese" if a majority of the district population are Chinese.  These districts tend to be in Peninsular Malaysia but there are some in Borneo as well which I would break out.

"Rural Malay" are rural and economically backward districts in Peninsular Malaysia that tend to have very low number of ethnic minorities (Chinese and Indian).  "Urban Malay" are more economically advanced districts in Peninsular Malaysia and also tends to have a higher number of ethnic minorities.  "Multi-ethnic" are more urban districts but without a clear ethnic majority.

"Tribal-Sarawak" are non-"Chinese" and tribal dominated seats in Sarawak and the same for " Tribal-Sabah."  Note I count Brunei Malays that vote for UMNO in Sabah as tribal as well to distinguish them from  Peninsular Malays.

Chinese districts in Peninsular Malaysia

Given the fact that ethnic Chinese tends to back the opposition and cluster around DAP Chinese diarists where always weak for BN.  2008 was a breakthrough for the DAP and BN Chinese parties got hammered in 2008.  In 2013 there was a very large swing against BN on top of that which became a total wipeout 26-0 as the Chinese vote concentrated around the opposition bloc.  



Chinese districts in Borneo

Here in 2008 BN did fairly well due the the strength of the local BN Chinese parties, especially Sarawak's SUPP.  But in 2013 there was a wave of support for the opposition bloc and PRK consolidated behind DAP to win 8-0 on a very strong swing of almost 10% away from BN.  



Rural Malay districts

Here it is mostly a battle between UMNO and PAS with PKR doing a lot worse in these seats relative to PAS.  Historically UMNO had the advantage but PAS has been holding its ground and steadily made gains in these districts.  In 2013 UMNO was able to take advantage of targeting certain vulnerable PAS districts to create fear of an opposition victory which would mean Chinese domination of Malaysia.  As a result there was as small swing toward UMNO and in terms of seat count UMNO seat count victory went up from 30-20 to 36-14 on  a 1% swing toward BN and PKR getting completely wiped out here.



Urban Malay districts

This are the real battleground districts in 2013 and in 2017/2018.  Here it is mostly PKR for the opposition with some seats contested by DAP and PAS while for BN it is mostly UMNO but with some seats for Chinese and Indian BN parties where an extra share of the Chinese and Indian ethnic vote might help to win to add on top of the UMNO base.  The opposition won a almost 3% swing from 2008 to 2013 but ended up with a net loss of 2 seats to BN which won the seat count 40-22 in 2008 and 42-20 in 2013.  Again, UMNO was able to achieve this by targeting key marginal seats with resources and with the message that Malays have to vote BN to deal with the Chinese surge of support for the opposition.  This seems to have worked.



Multi-ethnic

Here in 2008 the two fronts were roughly equal in terms of votes and seats with a slight edge to PK.  But a strong swing of around 6.5% toward PK gave a PK seat lead of 20-7 versus 15-12 in 2008.  In many ways this was similar what took place in the Chinese districts where the Liberal urban Malay vote, the Chinese vote, and the Indian vote all swung away from BN.



We then have Tribal-Sarawak districts
Which there are Muslim dominated Tribal districts


and Christian dominated Tribal districts

Here BN with its tribal allies have a massive electoral advantage sweeping all the seats in both 2008 and 2013.  For Muslim tribal seats BN pretty much did not lose any ground from 2008 to 2013.  It is in Christian areas that some ground was lost, mostly to regional opposition parties.  Here we can see the regional Leftist SWP is really a Christian district based force.  We can also see that PBB is mostly a Muslim Sarawak regional BN party while PRS and SPDP are the Christian Sawawak regional BN parties.



We have Tribal-Sabah districts
Which there are Muslim dominated Tribal districts

 
and Christian dominated Tribal districts


There are a greater concentration of Chinese in Sabah relative to Sarawak so the situation here is not as bad for the national opposition as  Sarawak.  BN had a 24-0 sweep  in 2008 and lost one seat to PKR in 2013.  PK gained vote share from 2008 to 2013 but that is mostly about consolidating DAP into the PK alliance in these districts.  The opposition bloc should be working to form an alliance with STAR and perhaps SAPP.    But overall given the strength of Sabah tribals plus Brunei Malays it is unlikely the national opposition can gain much seats in 2017/2018 here.  In both Muslim Tribal and Christian Tribal districts BN lost ground but lost much more ground Christian distircts and like Sarawak the loss is mostly to regional opposition parties.  But unlike Sarawak PK actually gained ground.  in Christian Tribal districts BN actually is in trouble and only won 7 seats 6-1 due to the split between the Peninsular opposition parties and the regional opposition parties.   From the regional opposition parities point of view we can see that STAR is a Christian tribal based opposition party while SAPP seems to be equally strong in Muslim Tribal and Christian Tribal districts.  Within BN we can see that UNMO is the main Muslim tribal BN party while UPKO and PBRS are the main BN Christian tribal parties.


So overall given PAS broke away from PH, PH is not in the running for "Rural Malay" seats.  And if PH is unlikely to gain much in "Tribal-Sarawak" and "Tribal-Sabah" seats that means that in 99 out of 222 seats PH can only hope to win single digit number of seats.  This in turn means in the other 125 seats ("Chinese" and "Cosmopolitan Malay") PH has to pretty much have to win over 80% of these seats to win a majority which pretty much seems impossible.  

This is the main reason why PH has accepted Mahathir and his PPBM into PH and flip-flop on decades of criticism of  Mahathir.  PH's conclusion is that while PAS liberal splinter AMANAH will fetch some votes, they are mostly a duplication of PRK's appeal to the Liberal Malay voting bloc and have no real appeal in "Rural Malay" seats.  Running AMANAH in "Urban Malay" seats will merely provoke PAS to tactically vote for BN.  Mahathir and his PPBM joining up with PH is the way to counteract this.  PPBM will run in  "Rural Malay" and the more conservative  "Urban Malay" seats hoping that the vote would be evenly split between BN and PAS and giving a chance that PPBM might sneak away with a bunch of seats.  PRK and  AMANAH will focus on the more liberal of the  "Urban Malay" seats while DAP will go after the "Chinese" seats as expected.  The main area where PH can gain are the remaining 8 BN seats in the Multi-ethnic districts where another swing of the urban Liberal Malay vote should push all of them into PH's hands.  PRK and  AMANAH will mostly run pertty well there.
 The main risk of this is the PH will lose its core anti-Mahathir voter base that might not turn on in protest.  But that core vote is mostly concentrated in "Chinese" districts.  A swing of 3%-4% in those seats will not lose them much, if any, seats given the massive lead PH has in those seats.  Another risk for PH is that in Sarawak Chinese districts SUPP seems to be making a comeback as demonstrated by the 2016 Sarawak state elections..  PH has to hope that the national nature of the election will keep the Chinese vote in PH camp.

As for the tribal seats, the PH strategy is to do very enough in Peninsular Malaysia so that PH has a wide lead over BN there even though not enough for a overall majority.  The main PH chance is in Sabah Christian tribal areas where cooperation with regional opposition parties could yield a few seats.  Then lure some UMNO defectors as well as BN tribal parties to form a majority.  The BN tribal parties in this situation where PH has a wide lead over BN in Peninsular Malaysia could see the writing on the way and jump ship to make sure they maintain their share of subsidies from the central government.  

The BN strategy would be simpler.  Tie Mahathir to DAP and make sure "Rural Malay" seats remain a UMNO vs PAS battle.  Appeal to PAS for anti-DAP tactical voting in "Cosmopolitan Malay" seats.  Even if BN then does not get a majority, it will be ahead of PH and then getting PAS to support BN to block DAP would be the route back to power.

[jaichind]

One of many claims on how the election system is rigged is the gerrymandering that BN engages in, especially where the population size per district is a lot smaller in the Rural, Sarawak, and Sabah districts.  I think in may ways both are valid complaints but they both do not explain all of the vote share and seat share discrepancy.  

To filter out the effect of different district sizes I normalized the seat distribution around total vote for all the district types I had (Chinese, Rural Malay, Urban Malay, Multi-ethnic, Tribal-Sarawak and Tribal-Sabah.) In that case what we find that in 2013 it would be a BN-PK margin of 118-104 instead of 133-89 so BN would have won anyway even if the seat distribution were normalized around district voter size.  For 2008 it would have been BN-PK margin 126-96 instead of 140-82.  

The remaining BN margin of victory has to be gerrymandering or ability of BN to direct resources to targeted marginal seats.  Some say even busing in pro-BN voters from non-competitive districts to marginal districts.  Most likely all of them are factors.

[jaichind]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4735114/Women-refuse-husbands-sex-guilty-abuse-says-MP.html

UNMO MP Che Mohamad Zulkifly Jusoh said during parliamentary debate that women who refuse to have sex with their husbands or deny them a second wife are guilty of 'psychological and emotional abuse'

While these sorts of remarks has been controversial the nature of his district makes him safe from any real political backlash.  His district is 100% Malay and of course counts as a Rural Malay district under my categorization.  

In 2013 his district was UNMO 56.8% PAS 43.2%.  In the upcoming election even if PPBM runs and captures a good block of the UNMO vote it will capture the AMANAH and PKR vote from the 2013 PAS vote.  So the most likely result would be UNMO 45% PPBM 25% PAS 30%.  In fact such statements might help consolidate the Malay Nationalist Islamist vote and the result would end up being UNMO 50% PPBM 23% PAS 27%.

[jaichind]

To understand how the impact of the PAS split and PAS leaving the PH opposition alliance we should look at the 2013 72 PAS candidates and see where they ended up.  We can group them by the 6 district clusters

                           Total 2013 PAS                 PAS                          AMANAH
                         Contested    Won      Contested   Won          Contested   Won
Chinese                   0              0             0             0                  0            0
Rural Malay            40            14           30           12                 10            2
Urban Malay           23              6           10            3                 13            3
Multi-ethnic              2              1            0             0                  2             1
Tribal-Sarawak          5             0            3              0                  2             0
Tribal-Sabah             2             0             1             0                  1             0
Total                      72            21          44            15                 28            6

As expected, the entire PAS infrastructure in  Multi-ethnic districts went over the Liberal Islamic PAS splinter AMANAH.    While in Rural Malay districts around 1/4 of the PAS candidates went over to AMANAH.  While in  Urban Malay districts slightly more than half of the PAS candidates went over to   AMANAH. 

In some ways this underestimates AMANAH strength since some 2013 PAS candidates might have retired or existed politics and not joined AMANAH would be counted as staying in PAS.  On the other hand  prospects of a AMANAH candidate winning is stronger than PAS all things equal  given the fact that AMANAH is part of the PH alliance while PAS is pretty much running by itself and have little prospect of winning seats outside of  Rural Malay districts.  These two factors perhaps equal each other out.

These numbers imply that 90% of the PAS vote in Chinese and Multi-ethnic districts most likely went to  AMANAH, around 50% Urban Malay PAS vote went to AMANAH, and around 25% of the Rural Malay PAS vote went to AMANAH.

So PAS leaving PH will most likely not affect PH ability to win in  Chinese and Multi-ethnic districts, but would significantly impact PH prospects in Urban Malay districts and pretty much put PH out of the running in Rural Malay districts.  Another reasons to bring in PPBM to make up for this by pulling in UNMO vote in Urban Malay and Rural Malay districts.

[jaichind]

Another way to look at accusations of gerrymandering by BN is to look at the different district sizes by average number registered voters.

Chinese-Peninsular    76,222
Chinese-Borneo         56,883
Rural Malay               59,197
Urban Malay              64,962
Multi-ethnic               81,363
Tribal-Sarawak          28,659
Tribal-Sabah             38,281

There is clearly a bias toward favoring Borneo  where BN would most likely claim is done to protect Borneo from domination by Peninsular Malaysia.  Of course it is convenient for BN which mostly sweeps the Borneo seats.  Chinese-Borneo seats are larger  since they tend to be more urban districts.  For Peninsular Malaysia there is a clear bias in favor or rural districts.  The more urban the district the larger number of average registered voters.  It dose NOT seems to be a scheme to bias against districts with more Chinese voters.  The average number of registered voters in Chinese-Peninsular districts are smaller than Multi-ethnic districts which are most urbanized.  Instead it seems to be a bias against urban districts which is also convenient for BN, especially election where it is counting on sweeping rural districts to win.

[jaichind]

UNMO Deputy PM Ahmad Zahid Hamidi



Launched an attack on Mahathir saying that he as access to Mahathir's identify papers which show that his father is of Indian origin.    To be fair this attack is pretty old.  When UNMO split back in 1987  UNMO splinter S46 also attacked Mahathir for being of Indian background.

Mahathir counterattacked saying that when  Ahmad Zahid Hamidi   was made a deputy minister in 1996 Ahmad Zahid Hamidi declared his assets to be around $60 million and when Mahathir asked Ahmad Zahid Hamidi where did that money come from Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said it was from "business he owned" which Mahathir  found unacceptable.

Ahmad Zahid Hamidi  history is interesting.  Back in 1997-8 he was an Anwar Ibrahim partisan inside UNMO and openly attacked  Mahathir when Anwar Ibrahim  started his moves to oust Mahathir.  He was even expelled from UNMO and jailed for being part of the Anwar Ibrahim attempt to overthrow Mahathir.  But somehow he had good connections in UNMO and got himself out of jail and back in UNMO as a MP and threw his support to Mahathir.  As late as 2014 he was still pretty close to Mahathir and was using Mahathir's influence to get himself appointed Deputy PM.  Now he is the attack dog of UNMO Mahathir and Anwar Ibrahim

[jaichind]

A good part of the BN strategy is counting on PAS splitting the anti-BN vote.  PH counters that PAS could also end up eating into the UNMO vote base as well.  An analysis of the 2008 to 2013 election data seems to indicate that BN is more likely to be right on this topic.  

What we can do is look at the effect of PAS Islamic hard line splinter Berjasa had on the BN and PK vote shares in 2013 relative to 2008. With Liberal Islamic  AMANAH splitting out of PAS what remains of PAS looks a lot like Berjasa in 2013.  Out of the 62 Malay Urban districts Berjasa ran in 3 seats in 2013 and out of the 27 Multi-ethnic districts Berjasa ran in 6 seats in 2013.  What we can do is to compare the BN->PK swing for the districts where Berjasa ran  and where they did not.  

For Malay Urban districts

               (where Berjasa ran in 2013)       (where Berjasa did not run in 2013)
                  2013        2008      Diff                   2013          2008        Diff
BN             46.19%   46.20%  -0.01%             52.11%       55.54%   -3.43%
PK             47.72%   53.80%  -6.08%             47.59%       44.40%   +3.19%
Berjasa       5.28%


For Multi-ethnic districts

               (where Berjasa ran in 2013)       (where Berjasa did not run in 2013)
                  2013        2008      Diff                   2013          2008        Diff
BN             38.00%   44.88%  -6.88%             41.72%       50.14%   -8.42%
PK             56.55%   54.72%  +1.83%            57.64%       49.52%   +8.12%
Berjasa       4.67%

The differences in the swings between where Berjasa ran and where they did not makes it clear that most of the Berjasa vote came from PAS voters that otherwise would have gone to PK and mostly did not come from BN voters.  Moreover most of the seats that Berjasa ran in where in seats where the BN candidate was not from UNMO and  Berjasa wanted to present a Muslim/Malay alternative.
 With PAS in 2017/2018 running across the board separately and they are even less likely to attract BN voters when the BN candidate is a UNMO candidate.

So unless there is something different this time around PAS running most likely will take votes from PH and not BN.  Of course what is different now is Mahathir's PPBM being part of the PH alliance could attract UNMO voters to make up for the loss of PH voters that are going over to PAS.

In the meantime Berjasa now has joined up with is mother party PAS in 2017/2018 as part of the GS bloc.

[jaichind]

If things go PH's way in Peninsular Malaysia then how Sarawak and Sabah will be decisive on which bloc comes out ahead.  Sarawak most likely be a repeat of 2013 but Sabah had had a lot of political churn since 2013 and could throw up surprises depending if PH can form alliance with new emergent Sabah regional parties.

Sabah


Sabah has three large demographic groups.  First there is the Kadazandusun tribal group that are dominate in the eastern part of Sabah.  They are mostly Catholic but more and more are being converted to Islam.  The Bruneian Malay and other Muslim tribal groups are more dominate in the western Sabah.  Hakka Chinese are spread throughout Sabah with a couple of concentrations.

BN strategy in Sabah is to co-opt local parties that represents these disparage groups with federal subsidies so they augment the BN majority as well as help suppress autonomous or independence movements.  

In the 1960s-1980s BN mostly worked with USNO (representing Bruneian Malay/Muslim tribals) UPKO (representing Kadazandusun) and SCA (representing Hakka Chinese.)  UPKO fell into decline and merged into  USNO.  The in the 1980s BERJAYA which was dominated by Kadazandusun split out from USNO to become its main rival even as both parities continued to work with BN to get their fair share of federal subsidies.  Over time SCA also fell into decline and disappeared.  

In the 1980s PBS which was fairly multi-ethnic but with a Kadazandusun bias split from USNO and not only displaced BERJAYA but mostly worked in opposition to BN.  Throughout the 1980s and 1980s it was PBS which became the ruling party against BN backed USNO as BERJAYA slowly disappeared. PBS joined BN on and off to get access of federal subsides but it was clear that it was a real problem for BN.  BN's Mahathir strategy to deal with this is to use cash inducements to create PBS splinters and can then be aligned with BN to break the PBS majority.  The first step is to facilitate a merger between  USNO and what is left of BERJAYA into the UNMO branch of Sabah so Mahathir can have more direct control of Sabah politics.  Then BN facilitated the creation of LDP which is a Chinese based splinter of PBS as well as AKAR which is a Kadazandusun based splinter of PBS.   Then right before the 1994 state elections another PBS splinter SAPP was created which also was mostly Chinese but had a significant Kadazandusun component to it.  The BN (UNMO LDP SAPP) took on PBS and the result was a near tie (PBS 26 BN 24.)  UNMO then help create two more PBS splinter (PDS and PBRS with both mostly Kadazandusun) to create BN majority.  Part of the deal Mahathir with these PBS splinters to get them on board and stay on board is a CM rotation system so that  Kadazandusun, Chinese and Bruneian Malay/Muslim tribal all have a turn at being CM.  So in the 1994-1999 period, the leader of Sabah UNMO (representing Bruneian Malay/Muslim tribal) will be CM from 1994-1996, then the lead of SAPP (representing Chinese) will be CM 1996-1998, and then the leader of PDS (representing Kadazandusun) will be CM 1998-1999.  With this set of action BN was finally able to break PBS which went into decline.  In the meantime BN also got AKAR to join BN and after some time it merged into UNMO.  PDS also around this time renamed itself UPKO to present itself as the re-founding of the original Kadazandusun based UPKO of the 1960s and present itself as THE Kadazandusun establishment party.

Mahathir's next move to restore complete BN domination in Sabah was to then get PBS to also join BN which took place after the defeat of PBS in 1999 by the enlarged BN bloc.  Of course this left a political vacuum in Sabah which at this stage the Peninsular opposition parties (PKR DAP PAS) started to move into Sabah and fill.  So the period of 1999 to 2013 was a period of BN political domination of Sabah as the Peninsular opposition parties build up their strength from nothing.  

By 2013 elections and afterwards political churn started again since an mega-alliance BN built cannot last forever.  First  SAPP split from BN.  The Jeffrey Kitingan who is the brother of the original founder and still president of PBS joined PKR and then formed the Sabah branch of STAR (STAR being a Sarawak opposition party but since it was registered party it was easier to use it then try to create a new party/symbol) as an anti-BN Kadazandusun party.  In 2013 SAPP and STAR contested outside the PK opposition alliance and while it did not win any seats and won a lot less votes than PK it showed both parties had some level of support.

After the 2013 elections more churn took place.  Lajim Ukin who was a rising star in UNMO that quit UNMO in 2012 to join PKR left PKR to create PHRS.  Then STAR, SAPP, and PHRS formed the USA (United Sabah Alliance) as a bloc that will contest the next elections on the platform of Sabah autonomy and against Peninsular UNMO interference in Sabah affairs.  Then in 2016 came a bombshell.  Shafie Apdal who political heavyweight in Sabah is near the top of the Sabah UNMO and actually elected a UNMO vice-president in 2013 (first person from Sabah to do so) quit UNMO after being let go from the cabinet in 2015.  He then created a Sabah autonomous Bruneian Malay/Muslim tribals WARISAN party.  Currently there are on and off talks between USA and  WARISAN for WARISAN to join USA.  USA very much desires to complete its well-rounded ethnic distribution in its alliance so SAPP would be the Chinese Sabah autonomous party, STAR the Kadazandusun  autonomous party, and WARISAN the  Bruneian Malay/Muslim autonomous party all in one alliance.  There are also ongoing talks between PH and both USA and WARISAN on an alliance in the next election.  

While BN have lost ground due to the WARISAN and PHRS defection it is also clear that PH has lost ground to USA as well since 2013 given the level of defections from PKR to the various USA parties. So for PH to gain ground in Sabah next election PH has to try to get an alliance with the Sabah autonomous opposition parties who in turn has to be able to swallow the Peninsular nature of the PH alliance.  Another issue that would get in the way of a PH-USA-WARISAN alliance is that a good part of political choas in Sabah in the 1980s and 1990s were masterminded by UNMO's Mahathir which is symbolic of  Peninsular interference in Sabah affairs is now the chairman of PH.   As soon as the election is called we will find out whether such an alliance is possible.  If not it should be an easy victory for BN.

So the upcoming election for now is

BN
 UNMO -  Bruneian Malay/Muslim tribals
 PBS - multi-ethnic with Kadazandusun and Chinese support
 UPKO - Kadazandusun
 PBRS - Kadazandusun
 LDP - Chinese

PH
 PKR - Bruneian Malay/Muslim tribals and Kadazandusun
 DAP - Chinese
 AMANAH - Liberal Islamic (very little support in Sabah)

PAS - Hardline Islamic  (very little support in Sabah)

USA
 STAR - Kadazandusun
 SAPP - Mostly Chinese with some Kadazandusun support
 PHRS - Bruneian Malay/Muslim tribals (does not seem to have that much support)
 PCS - UPKO splinter mostly with appeals to Kadazandusun

WARISAN - Bruneian Malay/Muslim tribals (strength unknown and could be significant)

[jaichind]

Town hall by ex-Malaysian leader Mahathir marred by violence

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/town-hall-malaysian-pm-mahathir-marred-violence-49187565

Attempt to attack Mahathir by 2-3 youths at  PPBM event.   PPBM is blaming UNMO.  UNMO denounces the attacks and disclaims responsibility. 

[jaichind]

Lajim Ukin, leader of PHRS of the regionalist Sabah USA alliance called on PH to back USA and WARISAN in Sabah.  Lajim Ukin was part of UNMO in 2008 elections before he defected to PKR for the 2013 elections and then split from PHRS.  Lajim Ukin's position is that USA and WARISAN should back PH in the 3 seats that PH won in Sabah in 2013 and in return PH back a potential USA-WARISAN alliance in the other Sabah seats.  Given the relative voting strength of PH in Sabah in 2013 it seem more likely that USA-WARISAN would split the Sabah seats 50/50 with PH.  Although what USA-WARISAN would argue is that a lot of the PH vote have difted to USA and WARISAN since 2013 along with some of the 2013 BN vote in Sabah.

[jaichind]

It seems the PAS branches in Selangor, Kedah and Kelantan have petitioned PAS high command to work out alliances with PH.  In economically advanced and industrialized Selangor most of PAS already went over to AMANAH and what remains of PAS are still part of the PKR state coalition government.   In ultra-rural Kelantan historically it has been UNMO vs PAS and PKR are still part of the PAS-led government.  In mostly rural Kedah it also has been historically been UNMO vs PAS and the local PAS still has ties with PKR seeing it as an ally against the main UNMO enemy.

The Kelantan PAS is arguing that without an alliance with PH most likely the Kelantan PAS government will be defeated by UNMO in the upcoming election.  Furthermore since the PAS grassroots are very anti-UNMO, any signs that PAS might split the anti-UNMO vote or act in a way that might be seen as colluding with UNMO, the Kelantan PAS argues that over 60% of the PAS vote will defect over to PH.  The Kelantan PAS indicates that while in 2013 out of the 45 Kelantan state seats were distributed PAS 40 PKR 5 and 14 federal seats PAS 11 PKR 3, this time around the seats should be shared 50/50 between PAS and PH given the weakened state of PAS due to the  AMANAH defection as well as vote getting potential of  PPBM as part of PH.

It seems for now PAS high command is rejecting this approach and sticking to its third front GS alliance approach.  I suspect when the election is called and PAS high command does not support local PAS tactical alliances with PH AND PH shows that it is in real contention for power with BN there might be significant defections of PAS leaders and cadre in these three states to PH.

Speaking of the GS alliance it seems to be made up of

PAS 
BERJASA - PAS hardline splinter which now have rejoined its mother party in alliance
PCM - Gerakan splinter so this is the Chinese party of GS
IKATAN - UNMO ultra-Malay nationalist splinter. 

Of course it seems GS is a divided house.  As noted PAS branches in Selangor, Kedah and Kelantan want to form an alliance with PH while IKATAN is advocating for a tactical alliance with UNMO (but not BN).  What IKATAN want is to contest seats only where UNMO is not running while backing UNMO where it is running. So IKATAN's main goal seems to be be trying take down non-Malay BN parties like MCA and MIC. 

[jaichind]

Nomura Research has updated their base case for next Malaysia election from Sept-Oct 2017 to Mar-July 2018 on the premise that key legislation for voter sops to boast BN chances has not been passed yet.  Must survey data seems to indicate a majority of Malaysians do not think the economy is on the right track so BN has to do something to change that perception.  The PH opposition not falling apart is another reason not to call an early election since a reasonably united PH might pose a threat to BN victory.

[jaichind]

See Hua Daily News which is a Chinese language paper based in Borneo came out with an analysis of the next Sabab state elections which is expected to take place at the same time as the next federal elections.

http://news.seehua.com/?p=296450

What I find interesting is they took an very similar approach to my which is to divide up the districts by ethnic type.  They used (Muslim Tribal, Non-Muslim Tribal, Chinese, and Mixed) while I used (Muslim Tribal, Christian Tribal and Chinese).

First they pointed out the ethnic distribution of Sabah voters.


Muslim Tribal         44.57%
Non-Muslim Tribal  33.67%  (most of them are Catholic)
Chinese                16.70%
Others                    6.06%

I think Others might be a lot of migrants/refugees from Insurgency in Southern Philippines that managed to get Malaysian citizenship.  If so most of them are going to be Muslim.

Then they had a map of the 2013 Sabah state election where it was BN 48 PK 11 STAR 1



Deep Blue are districts where BN won more than 60% of the vote (11 seats)
Light Blue are districts where BN won 50%-60% of the vote (11 seat)
Light Red are districts where BN won but failed to cross 50% of the vote (8 seats)
Dark Red are districts where PK won (12 seats)

Not sure why but the seat count does not add up to 60 like it should

Since Muslim Tribals are concentrated in Eastern Sabah and Non-Muslim Tribal and Chinese are concentrated in Western Sabah it is clear that it is in the Non-Muslim Tribal and Chinese vote that are giving PK victories.  Also Regional opposition parties like STAR are stronger in Non-Muslim tribal areas which split the anti-BN vote allowing BN to seats even though BN failed to cross 50% of the vote.

The the article broke down the 60 districts to 32 Muslim Tribal districts, 18 Non-Muslim Tribal districts, 6 Chinese districts, and 4 mixed districts and showed the 2008 to 2013 swings


Overall in 2013 the vote shares were BN 55.62% PK 32.2% regaional opposition parties (STAR and SAPP) 9.75% independents 2.43% (mostly anti-BN)

It points out that (like my own chart showed for the federal election), BN suffered large negative swings in Non-Muslim (-14.15%), Chinese (-17.22%) and Mixed (-11.32%) but managed to keep their vote share in Muslim Tribal districts. 

It points out that in 2013 in Non-Muslim tribal districts BN vote share was down to 48.57% which means a PK-STAR-SAPP alliance has a chance of making real gains in the upcoming election if they can unite.

It also points out that the BN government is losing support relative to 2012


2017 approval of Sabah BN government 
Muslim tribal         55% (-12%)
Non-Muslim Tribal  40% (-14%)
Chinese                29%  (-2%)
Overall                 45%  (-11%)

The article points out that the PH opposition pretty much maxed out Chinese support and that while Muslim Tribal support for BN has fallen it is not enough for PH to win seats there.  The swing districts will be the Non-Muslim Tribal districts where an alliance between PH, USA (STAR, SAPP, PHRS) and the new UNMO splinter WARISAN.

One thing the Sabah government is doing to try to push out the odds in its favor is redistricting.  There are plans to go from 60 to 73 seats.  It seems none of the 13 new seats will be in Chinese districts and mostly will be in Muslim Tribal districts. 

In the meantime the news on the ground is that PBS which started as an opposition party and was the main opponent of BN back in the 1980s and 1990s has cross ethnic support seems to be suffering from large defections on the ground to both WARISAN and STAR.  In the upcoming election I am sure PH and regional opposition parties will target PBS seats as the weakest link of BN.

On the PH side of course PAS split out from PH leaving the PAS liberal splinter AMANAH in its place.

[jaichind]

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/08/18/think-tank-two-scenarios-for-umno-in-ge14/

Political Studies for Change (KPRU) think tank pointed out that

1) When UNMO spliter S46 was created UNMO lost 12 seats from 83 seats in 1986 to 71 in 1990
2) When UNMO splinter PKR was created UNMO lost 17 seats from 89 in 1995 to 72 in 1999
3) The trend is for UNMO losses to be greater for each successive splinter.  As a result one possibility is that UNMO loses 15-20 seats from 88 seats in 2013 to 68-72 seats in 2018 as a result of PPBM split.
4) With a former UNMO PM as part of the split UNMO could lose 25-30 seats from 88 seats in 2013 to 58-63 seats.
5) On the other hand BN might gain some Chinese votes back from PH but it might not that much of a difference in terms of seats
6) The decisive factor in the upcoming election might be the Indian vote.  It points out that in 2008 BN only won 51% of the Indian vote but won 61% of the Indian vote in 2013 due to the last minute Hindraf (Hindu Rights Action Force which is a coalition of Indian NGOs )support of BN and possibly saving the BN majority.  It seems that Hindraf might back PH this time so it is critical that PH concentrate on the Indian vote to take advantage of the PPBM split from UNMO

[jaichind]

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/393255

Has some useful estimates of votes each demographic group (Malays, Chinese, Indians) which I have to assume is for Peninsular Malaysia



It seems in 1999 Malay support for BN collapsed due toe the Anwar rebellion but the Chinese and Indian vote held up.  The 2008 shock BN losses seems to be some Malay losses but the Chinese and Indian vote had a massive swing against BN.  That swing continued in 2013 as Chinese and Indian vote moved further away from BN but the Malay vote came back.

For PH to win it seems to Chinese vote to stay as it, a further Indian swing away from BN and for BN support among Malays to fall to 1999 levels.