Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018

[Oryxslayer]

I have been going around reading a bunch of stuff in preparation for the election, and it certainly feels like the opposition has the wind at their backs. Of course, it will be hard to crack the rural BN wall, along with the gerrymandering and malaportionment. But, most sites seem to suggest that this year might be different in regards to rural areas like Johor and Sabah. Perhaps one could say the PH has the same chance Trump did on 538 in November, 30%? It just stinks that polling is biased and poor quality here, so almost nobody knows what is happening.

[Oryxslayer]

http://tindakmalaysia.maps.arcgis.com/apps/StorytellingSwipe/index.html?appid=bc4d7c82af2e4b618bce487a4ad650e9

Here is a neat little map of the peninsula that compares the boundaries of the last election to to the coming one.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah I think you basically got two of the three factors here - how much will the rural peninsula swing, and how will the PAS/GS vote split. The third factor, one almost nobody knows about is Sabah. The Party Warisan Sabah's presence is a big question mark, and polls basically ignore the Borneo bits because of their homogeneity. The Under-population of the districts there make swings easy, though the institutional support is strong. If your projection becomes true, then the Sabah question mark might make or break the PH.

Also mind pointing me at where you find ethnic data per seat?

[Oryxslayer]

LOL

The moment I ask for demographic data, the site a use for data gets a nice fancy map mapping the demographic data of each of the seats, including the new ones.

http://www.tindakmalaysia.org/online-electoral-maps-of-malaysia

[Oryxslayer]

More PH friendly one from CNN:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/06/asia/najib-razak-malaysia-general-election-intl/index.html

A BBC article more on Mahathir then the big picture:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-43985623

There is also a WSJ article that is paywalled.

The fact the big news sites are picking up the election pre-story rather then just mentioning the post-mortem speaks to the potential competitiveness.

There is also a recent biased opinion piece on WashPo that everyone should probably just ignore, comparing Najib to Erdogan.

[Oryxslayer]

^ And we really know absolutely nothing about it besides the fact that Sabah is competitive - various candidates and personalities spent significant chunks of time there. God I love these times when you are actually going in dark to an election and it can go any way - like in WV today as well.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls close in 4 minutes...yes I woke up for this.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.myundi.com.my/parliament

Seems like a good link to live results.

Here a more 'utilitarian page' format with less flashy stuff that I am using right now:

http://live.undi.info/

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout right now is thought to be a little above 76%, with people in the lines still it probably punches closer to 80 - so like you said, average turnout.

If these swings hold, we are probably in for some shocks as we get on to the peninsula.

[Oryxslayer]

PH up in Selangau, Mas Gading, Saratok, and the indie in Julau.

[Oryxslayer]

1/222 Kalabakan called for UMNO/BN. No official numbers.

edit - 3/222 Baram and Tanjong Manis are in a similar position.

[Oryxslayer]

http://listen.bfm.my/ <- English Radio stream. They are playing music, but are mainly discusssing results.

[Oryxslayer]

http://live.undi.info/

This site has called a few more seats:

Parit in Perak for BN
Labis and Simpang Reggam this PH in Johor for BN, Batu Pahat for PH
Semporna for WARISAN, Kalabakan for BN in Sabah

deep breath

Mas Gading, Bandar Kuching, Puncak Borneo, Saratok, Selangau for PH and Julau for PH indie,
Santubong, Serian, batong Sadong, Kuala Rajang, Hulu rajang, baram, and Lawas for BN

Their tracker is 11 BN, 7 PH 1 Indie

some of those are gains

[Oryxslayer]

My previous statement mapped. Opposition gains in Sarawak.

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently, Sabah is in danger of falling locally to WARISAN according to rumors at the counts. If so, more fed seats could fall with incoming results.

[Oryxslayer]

PH takes the lead in the count. Even if they lose, or if it flips back to BN, this never happened in 2013. The opposition has hope. And some of these wern't strongholds, they were in Johor.

[Oryxslayer]

Latest returns mapped

[Oryxslayer]

Have to go to a final, will return in 1-2hrs. Keep the fire warm.

[Oryxslayer]

Official results in Sarawak are now BN 16, PH 10, Oth 2.

Only two other seats reported officially. (Labuan & 1 KL seat)

I'm back from my final and whoa this is close. Anyway, I wanted to comment of Sarawak. While there were obvious local factors in play, a big factor I think was the underpopulation of some of these seats. A little targeted campaigning can flip a few people, and if there are less total voters, this shift is a greater % of the total.

Wait when did the PH flip langkawi, that was like a super safe seat i think. Edit part 2 - oh its Mathaiers seat. My bad.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyone have a list of seas changing hands?

Too many to count right now. There will probably be a final list once we are done.

[Oryxslayer]

Here is where we stand as of now. The big remaining seat blocs are:

Kedah - swing
Urban KL - easy BH
Johor - apparently looking good for PHG
Sabah - ?

[Oryxslayer]

The seat uncalled for Bn was the first one called of the night, Kalabakan lol.

Titiwangsa in KL just flipped to PH from BN.

[Oryxslayer]

If PH comes into power and fixes the gerrymandering then there is only one way out for BN to survive on the long run in future elections:  A BN-PAS alliance.

That will be hard because some of the malaportionment is part of the constitution  - Sabah and Sarawak by law need more seats they they should have. But I suspect PH will try to either reapportion the peninsula or add more seats overall. Not only as part of good government - something they ran on, but also to  build some institutional advantage for themselves as you do in these more illiberal democracies.  

[Oryxslayer]

Sungai Besar is uncalled for BN.

Kalabakan is back for them though.

[Oryxslayer]

WARISAN's President Shafie Apdal is winning his seat, P189   Semporna, which he won in 2013 as the UNMO candidate with almost 80% of the vote.

That was like seat 4 called - I suspect that was the reason why. Now please, the rest of Sabah Mr. Najib.