Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018

[Polkergeist]

Jachind,

Are there any estimates about home many extra seats BN can win on the new boundaries passed by Parliament yesterday?

*assuming the vote is the same as GE13

[Polkergeist]

Thanks Jachind.

Your posts in this thread have been very informative and are appreciated.

[Polkergeist]

Here it comes..

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/malaysia-s-najib-expected-to-call-election-on-friday-minister-10099112

[Polkergeist]

Looking through the unofficial results at the myundi link you guys prvoided I get the following seats where the incumbent party is trailing

BN Leading PH Incumbent   

P.068   Beruas
P.132   Port Dickson
P.152   Kluang
   
BN leading GS Incumbent
   
P.101   Hulu Langat

PH Leading BN Incumbent

P.018   Kulim-Bandar Baharu
P.141   Sekijang
P.192   Mas Gading
P.205   Saratok
P.214   Selangau
   
OTH Leading BN Incumbent

P.209   Julau

[Polkergeist]

From what I can see overall there is not much change. There is no obvious breakout one way or another.

[Polkergeist]

Sarawak most likely end up BN 20 PH 10 pro-PH Ind. 1.  Amazing

Well that is a shift to the opposition.. no doubt

[Polkergeist]

In the GS incumbent seats, according to the unofficial results;

GS Ahead
P.021   Kota Bharu (Kelantan)
P.028   Pasir Puteh (Kelantan)


BN ahead
P.101   Hulu Langat (Selangor)

All other GS incumbent seats are yet to report.

[Polkergeist]

On the unofficial results I have BN trailing in 4 Sabah seats they hold

[Polkergeist]

Overall the unofficial leaders I tally from Myundi are

BN   41   (-8)
PH   35   (5)
GS   3   (0)
OTH   6   (3)

Jachind is right, a lot hangs on what happens to the PAS vote

[Polkergeist]

I have BN trailing in 11 seats (net) where they are the incumbents according to Myundi unofficial results. Less than half the seats a reporting.

If BN lose 21 seats (net) BN lose their majority

[Polkergeist]

PH not doing badly in Johor in unofficial returns

Seats Leading
PH 7
BN 6
Not yet reporting 13

[Polkergeist]

Unofficial Langkawi P004   

DR MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD (PH)   5230   
IR. NAWAWI BIN AHMAD (BN)   2612   
ZUBIR BIN AHMAD (GS)   1041   

Apologies for caps

[Polkergeist]

Overall the unofficial leaders I tally from Myundi are;

BN   41   (-15)
PH   42  (9)
GS   6   (1)
OTH   8   (5)

125 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

[Polkergeist]

Overall the unofficial leaders I tally from Myundi are;

BN   41   (-15)
PH   42  (9)
GS   6   (1)
OTH   8   (5)

125 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

I assume OTH 8 is WARISAN and pro-PH independent

Yes

[Polkergeist]

PH improving its position in Johor in unofficial returns


Seats Leading
PH 9
BN 6
Not yet reporting 11

[Polkergeist]

Based on the unofficial leaders on both myundi websites linked earlier in the thread I get the following;

BN  64  (-19)
PH   59  (17)
GS   7   (0)
OTH   6  (2)

88 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

[Polkergeist]

Pakatan Harapan chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad has won the Langkawi parliament seat, according to Astro Awani.

[Polkergeist]

The official Malaysian Electoral Commission website has mostly results for Sarawak. 23 Sarawak seats reported are BN 13, PH 9, Oth 1

I have the leaders in Sarawak as BN 16, PH 10, Oth 1

At least in Sarawak the results are being reported somewhat in accordance with the unofficial results

[Polkergeist]

Official results in Sarawak are now BN 16, PH 10, Oth 2.

Only two other seats reported officially. (Labuan & 1 KL seat)

[Polkergeist]

Negeri Sembilan has fallen, claims Harapan

10.05pm: (Unofficial) In Seremban, Negeri Sembilan Harapan chief Aminuddin Harun declares that a "tsunami rakyat" has swept through the state

Interesting as we haven't had too many results from Negeri tonight..

[Polkergeist]

Based on the unofficial leaders on both myundi websites linked earlier in the thread I get the following;

BN   68   (-22)
PH   64   (+18)
GS   8   (+1)
OTH   7   (+3)


75 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

BN now trail in more of their incumbent seats than needed to lose their majority (21).

To win a majority BN will need to either pull ahead in seats where they are behind or win opposition held seats yet to report.

[Polkergeist]

Here is how Malaysiakini sees it...

Things looking up for Harapan

10.30pm - ANALYSIS: As of 10.30pm, the results appear tight with BN winning 54 parliamentary seats to Harapan's 51 seats while PAS has four seats.

However, things are looking much better for Harapan as the majority of seats the opposition won as of now were at BN's expense.

The unofficial results for Harapan stronghold seats, which are usually huge, have yet to be released.

Therefore, it is expected that there will be a flood of seats in favour of Harapan at the late stage.

At the time of this entry, BN has already lost 23 parliamentary seats, with 19 going to Harapan and four to PAS.

However, BN only wrested two parliamentary seats from Harapan and another three from PAS.

[Polkergeist]

PH holds a strong position in Johor in unofficial returns


Seats Leading
PH 13
BN 7
Not yet reporting 6

All non-reporting seats have BN incumbents

[Polkergeist]

Based on the unofficial leaders on both myundi websites linked earlier in the thread I get the following;

BN   67   (-27)
PH   72   (+24)
GS   8   (0)
OTH   7   (+3)

68 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

PH looking to go above 100 seats at this point and BN below. If there is no dirty pool, PH to be the largest coalition IMO.

Unofficial results are flipping a few seats where BN was in the lead.

[Polkergeist]

If PH comes into power and fixes the gerrymandering then there is only one way out for BN to survive on the long run in future elections:  A BN-PAS alliance.

A BN-PAS Alliance is the go-to plan for a hung parliament.