New Republic: Why Hogan is more vulnerable than his popularity suggests
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  New Republic: Why Hogan is more vulnerable than his popularity suggests
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Author Topic: New Republic: Why Hogan is more vulnerable than his popularity suggests  (Read 694 times)
Virginiá
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« on: July 19, 2017, 02:28:51 PM »

He’s a Highly Popular GOP Governor of a Blue State. He’s Also Highly Vulnerable.

https://newrepublic.com/article/143883/hes-highly-popular-gop-governor-blue-state-hes-also-highly-vulnerable

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Pretty good piece on Hogan. I think it about sums up why I think, compared to Baker, Hogan is a lot more vulnerable. A great many voters who say they approve of him still won't actually vote for him, and turnout will almost surely not be a problem for Democrats next year, as it was for them in 2014. Another issue seems to be quite a conundrum for him. A big part of the reason he is so popular is because he hasn't actually done anything. He's basically acting like a neutral "manager" of the state. This gives him little to actually run on, which may not be the best way to turn out his base.

He's going to have to thread a very fine needle here. His ceiling is extraordinarly low, so he has no room for mistakes. Though, in the end, there might be nothing he can do. Opposition party Governors in states that lean this far to the dominant party sometimes present a mountain of votes too big to climb.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2017, 05:07:58 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2017, 05:09:34 PM by Tartarus Sauce »

The Democratic state legislature also has greater reason to invest in unseating Hogan than Massachusetts would in overthrowing Baker, and therefore greater motivation to field stronger candidates to run against a popular incumbent. Despite the Democrat's firm control over the state legislature, the Maryland governor is imbued with some the strongest budget formation powers of any state, so I would imagine the legislature is keen to have somebody more amenable to Democratic priorities holding those cards instead.
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CapoteMonster
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« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2017, 05:32:49 PM »

This article definitely proves why Hogan's more vulnerable than many think, but his incumbency and popularity make him a clear favorite. The crowded primary can't help dems either, so this race is Lean R till further notice
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2017, 12:04:25 PM »

Incumbent Governors do often do well running for reelection, even in wave years against their party.

In 2006, Republican incumbents were reelected in California, Rhode Island and Minnesota.
In 2010, the Democratic Governor of Arkansas won by a two to one margin while an incumbent Senator lost big.

The popularity of the Governor seems to be the decisive issue.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2017, 06:00:14 PM »

Incumbent Governors do often do well running for reelection, even in wave years against their party.

In 2006, Republican incumbents were reelected in California, Rhode Island and Minnesota.
In 2010, the Democratic Governor of Arkansas won by a two to one margin while an incumbent Senator lost big.

The popularity of the Governor seems to be the decisive issue.

2006, Maryland.

Still Think its Lean R, but Hogan can lose.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2017, 11:12:54 PM »

I agree with a lot of this. Personally if polled I would probably say I approve of Hogan, but there is no way in hell I'm voting for him next year.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2017, 09:06:33 AM »

Being from Maryland, I can assure you Hogan is definitely more vulnerable than his approval rating might suggest. Aside from the Trump effect, Hogan has been pushing some anti-public education policies that are unpopular with Maryland's progressive electorate. Ben Cardin's reelection coattails will also undoubtedly be a big drag on him.

The county to watch is Howard County, (which happens to be my residence) which is considered the state's bellwether. The county's Republican County Executive, Allan Kittleman is also up for reelection, and he's undoubtedly going to work as hard as he can to help Hogan carry the county. It's unclear how vulnerable he is at the moment, since he has a lot of personal popularity, but this is a county that Trump couldn't break 30% in. There's gonna have to be a ton of ticket-splitting for Kittleman and Hogan to win, and Maryland hasn't been a kind of state to split tickets much. (See 2006)
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hcallega
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2017, 09:22:12 AM »

Hogan is certainly vulnerable, as would any GOP Governor in a blue state be. However, he's the favorite until further notice. So far the Dems haven't presented a candidate that I think can beat Hogan. He's still very popular in most of the state's suburbs due to his fiscal views. I think it really comes down to this: Can the Democratic nominee fire up the base, while still winning over enough suburbanite moderates?
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