Extraterrestrial life

[MasterJedi]

I believe that there is extraterestrial life, in all the stars out there there has to be at least one that has some life on it.

And remember abscense of evidence is not evidence of abscense.

[ATFFL]

"Beam me up Scotty, there's no intelligent life down here!"

Indeed.

[ilikeverin]

Yup.  One celled organisms and the like certainly, intellegent life probably.

[ilikeverin]

fun with the Drake equation

Heh, being pessimistic about everything but how long civilizations last, I got 4,446

[Jake]

I got 41 which sounds about right to me.

[??????????]

"Beam me up Scotty, there's no intelligent life down here!"

Indeed.

Quit attacking my bad spelling.

[ATFFL]

"Beam me up Scotty, there's no intelligent life down here!"

Indeed.

Quit attacking my bad spelling.

I had to.  It was in a comment on intelligent life.  Too good to pass up.

[Gabu]

"Beam me up Scotty, there's no intelligent life down here!"

Indeed.

Quit attacking my bad spelling.

I had to.  It was in a comment on intelligent life.  Too good to pass up.

If you wanted to be really picky, you could also point out that that's a comma splice.

[ATFFL]

"Beam me up Scotty, there's no intelligent life down here!"

Indeed.

Quit attacking my bad spelling.

I had to.  It was in a comment on intelligent life.  Too good to pass up.

If you wanted to be really picky, you could also point out that that's a comma splice.

I could have, but the classic line always had a comma.  Comma splicing is too common to pick on people for.  I expect the rule to be dropped from English in a few generations.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

When I think about the possibility of E.T. life, I break it down as such:

One of the following is true:
1. Life here was placed here by a creator.
2. Life here is an accident of nature.

If the first is true, that creator could have chosen to put life all
over the place, and the Universe could be teeming with intelligent
life.  Or we could be the only life anywhere.  It's impossible to
know.

If the second is true, it is my belief that life is such an astounding
accident, requiring such perfect arrangements of chemicals to arise
under such perfect environmental circumstances, that there is no other
life anywhere else, let alone life intelligent enough to travel across
the vast expanse of space to visit us.

However, regardless of whether we are alone in the Universe, the
barriers to travel between inhabited worlds seem insurmountable to me.
 I very much doubt any E.T. intellegence has visited us.  Even if it
did, considering the earth is 5 billion years old and we have been
around for 50,000 years, the odds of E.T. visiting our world when it's
inhabited by human beings are staggeringly slim.

[Emsworth]

If the second is true, it is my belief that life is such an astounding
accident, requiring such perfect arrangements of chemicals to arise
under such perfect environmental circumstances, that there is no other
life anywhere else, let alone life intelligent enough to travel across
the vast expanse of space to visit us.

Perhaps not. The number of stars in the universe, and the number of planets, is astonishingly enormous.

The Drake equation, with even somewhat conservative estimates, would yield a relatively large number of planets with intelligent life, and an even larger number of planets on which life arose. Drake himself estimates 10,000 intelligent civilizations.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Perhaps not. The number of stars in the universe, and the number of planets, is astonishingly enormous.

The Drake equation, with even somewhat conservative estimates, would yield a relatively large number of planets with intelligent life, and an even larger number of planets on which life arose. Drake himself estimates 10,000 intelligent civilizations.

Drake fails to take into account the mind-boggling complexity of even the simplest possible lifeforms.  In order for a cell to form from lifeless matter, a process would have to take place akin to a tornado striking the junkyard outside of a Boeing factory and accidentally assembling a functional 747.

The Universe isn't big enough for it to have been likely to occur once, let alone 10,000 times.

If we are an accident, we are one fantastic accident.  I personally don't believe we are, however.

[Emsworth]

Drake fails to take into account the mind-boggling complexity of even the simplest possible lifeforms.

Actually, he does: there is a parameter in the equation f_l that estimates the fraction of planets suitable for life that develop life.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Probably at least one of the other 10^20 stars in the universe has intelligent life.

[J. J.]

Probably at least one of the other 10^20 stars in the universe has intelligent life.

You left out a whole bunch of zeros.

[12th Doctor]

I'm certain there are probably thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of planets in our galaxy that support life forms.  Of those, probably at least 10,000 support intellegent life forms and of those, probably at least half have reached roughly our plain of development with perhaps a few hundred or so being more advanced.

There was a guy who acctually wrote an equation to figure out how many intellegent spicies do exist.  Can't really remember much about it.

Anyway, I don't believe in Alien Abductions, at least not at nearly the frequency that are being reported.  While I think that they might have visited Earth, I do not think they are part of any "secret plots" or anything involving the government or Area 51.

[J. J.]

I would suspect that there is "life" elsewhere in our solar system, if only in single cell form.

I would suspect that there is intelligent life out there in out our galaxy.  Whether it can communicate is another matter.

As for the Fermi paradox, what evidence would there be that a survey fleet spend a decade on the planet 200,000,000 years ago?  Why do we assume that these aliens would want to colonize the planet?  We are at the edge of the galaxy, and we not have strategic position.

[12th Doctor]

If the second is true, it is my belief that life is such an astounding
accident, requiring such perfect arrangements of chemicals to arise
under such perfect environmental circumstances, that there is no other
life anywhere else, let alone life intelligent enough to travel across
the vast expanse of space to visit us.

Perhaps not. The number of stars in the universe, and the number of planets, is astonishingly enormous.

The Drake equation, with even somewhat conservative estimates, would yield a relatively large number of planets with intelligent life, and an even larger number of planets on which life arose. Drake himself estimates 10,000 intelligent civilizations.

Yes, the Drake equation.  That is it.

[12th Doctor]

Drake fails to take into account the mind-boggling complexity of even the simplest possible lifeforms.  In order for a cell to form from lifeless matter, a process would have to take place akin to a tornado striking the junkyard outside of a Boeing factory and accidentally assembling a functional 747.

Not true at all.  We have good evidence that single celled lifeforms once existed on Mars, and we may soon discover that they, or even slightly more complex forms, still live on the moons of Saturn.

If Earth has taught us anything it is that life is highly adaptable and can form to fit many environments and functions.  Now, I do believe that we had some help in that, but I also have a hard time believing that God created all that crap that we call the Universe and never bothered to fill it with anything else.

[12th Doctor]

not in this galaxy.

Scientists estimate that it would take between 5 and 50 million years for a race to colonize the entire galaxy.  And we've yet to be colonized, and our sun is a relatively new star.  Therefore it's highly improbable that a very advanced civilization has arisen in our galaxy, unless they're long gone.

Not nessesarily.  Maybe they have a Prime Directive.    Or maybe they have other reasons for not coming here.  Scientists estimated that we would go to Mars by the 1980's.  And, I'm still waiting for my flying car and Fusion powered cities.  Maybe they have just developed differently from us.  Perhaps they are more introverted and prefer to stay in their own system.  Maybe some of their planets have been ripped apart by war.  Maybe they are so peaceful and docile that they advance much slower than we do.  Maybe other civilizations have clashed when they have met and are to preoccupied with that to visit our planet.  Remember, in galactic terms, our system is fairly remote.  Not only that, but a species managing to stay around and thrive for even 10 million years is a little unreasonable, let alone 50 million.

Or, maybe they visited here, once, a long time ago and saw a semi-intellegent spiecies developing, and either decided not to screw with the development of the planet, or simply weren't interested in this place, so they packed up and left.

[J. J.]

Drake fails to take into account the mind-boggling complexity of even the simplest possible lifeforms.  In order for a cell to form from lifeless matter, a process would have to take place akin to a tornado striking the junkyard outside of a Boeing factory and accidentally assembling a functional 747.

Not true at all.  We have good evidence that single celled lifeforms once existed on Mars, and we may soon discover that they, or even slightly more complex forms, still live on the moons of Saturn.

If Earth has taught us anything it is that life is highly adaptable and can form to fit many environments and functions.  Now, I do believe that we had some help in that, but I also have a hard time believing that God created all that crap that we call the Universe and never bothered to fill it with anything else.

I agree with Super, but let's factor God out for a moment.  It looks as if at one point something was alive on Mars.  We think that on one of Jupiter's moons, there might be water and possibly something alive, on a cellular level. 

Now, there are several reasons why we wouldn't see them.

1.  We are fairly close to the edge of the galaxy.   Even if we were closer to the center, half the galaxy is on the other side; most of civilizations might be over there.  We may not be on a trade route.  Further, perhaps the only reason they would seek us out is for raw material,  Any species capable of transversing space may have easier was of getting raw materials.

2.  We're looking for the alien equivilents of I Love Lucy, broadcasts.  This period might only last for about a century and a half of a technological culture.  Even today, we are increasingly using technologies that aren't broadcast, like satellite television.  In 50 years, there may be no more "accidental"  broadcasts coming from Earth.

Assume that a culture about 100 light years from here reached this point 200 years ago.  We might have gotten broadcast 100 years ago, but we were not looking.

3.  Third, is distance.  Assume that a planent is advaning at the same rate as the earth  We won't be getting their I Love Lucy] for another 50 years

[??????????]

not in this galaxy.

Scientists estimate that it would take between 5 and 50 million years for a race to colonize the entire galaxy.  And we've yet to be colonized, and our sun is a relatively new star.  Therefore it's highly improbable that a very advanced civilization has arisen in our galaxy, unless they're long gone.

Not nessesarily.  Maybe they have a Prime Directive.    Or maybe they have other reasons for not coming here.  Scientists estimated that we would go to Mars by the 1980's.  And, I'm still waiting for my flying car and Fusion powered cities.  Maybe they have just developed differently from us.  Perhaps they are more introverted and prefer to stay in their own system.  Maybe some of their planets have been ripped apart by war.  Maybe they are so peaceful and docile that they advance much slower than we do.  Maybe other civilizations have clashed when they have met and are to preoccupied with that to visit our planet.  Remember, in galactic terms, our system is fairly remote.  Not only that, but a species managing to stay around and thrive for even 10 million years is a little unreasonable, let alone 50 million.

Or, maybe they visited here, once, a long time ago and saw a semi-intellegent spiecies developing, and either decided not to screw with the development of the planet, or simply weren't interested in this place, so they packed up and left.

What if we were planted here? Much like a farmer plants a seed and sits back and watches it grow.

[12th Doctor]

Drake fails to take into account the mind-boggling complexity of even the simplest possible lifeforms.  In order for a cell to form from lifeless matter, a process would have to take place akin to a tornado striking the junkyard outside of a Boeing factory and accidentally assembling a functional 747.

Not true at all.  We have good evidence that single celled lifeforms once existed on Mars, and we may soon discover that they, or even slightly more complex forms, still live on the moons of Saturn.

If Earth has taught us anything it is that life is highly adaptable and can form to fit many environments and functions.  Now, I do believe that we had some help in that, but I also have a hard time believing that God created all that crap that we call the Universe and never bothered to fill it with anything else.

I agree with Super, but let's factor God out for a moment.  It looks as if at one point something was alive on Mars.  We think that on one of Jupiter's moons, there might be water and possibly something alive, on a cellular level. 

Now, there are several reasons why we wouldn't see them.

1.  We are fairly close to the edge of the galaxy.   Even if we were closer to the center, half the galaxy is on the other side; most of civilizations might be over there.  We may not be on a trade route.  Further, perhaps the only reason they would seek us out is for raw material,  Any species capable of transversing space may have easier was of getting raw materials.

2.  We're looking for the alien equivilents of I Love Lucy, broadcasts.  This period might only last for about a century and a half of a technological culture.  Even today, we are increasingly using technologies that aren't broadcast, like satellite television.  In 50 years, there may be no more "accidental"  broadcasts coming from Earth.

Assume that a culture about 100 light years from here reached this point 200 years ago.  We might have gotten broadcast 100 years ago, but we were not looking.

3.  Third, is distance.  Assume that a planent is advaning at the same rate as the earth  We won't be getting their I Love Lucy] for another 50 years

All very true.  As we have both said, our solar system is probably one of the more remote in the galaxy, and thus we probably are not "in the line of fire" for much that would give clear signs of other intellegent life.

[12th Doctor]

not in this galaxy.

Scientists estimate that it would take between 5 and 50 million years for a race to colonize the entire galaxy.  And we've yet to be colonized, and our sun is a relatively new star.  Therefore it's highly improbable that a very advanced civilization has arisen in our galaxy, unless they're long gone.

Not nessesarily.  Maybe they have a Prime Directive.    Or maybe they have other reasons for not coming here.  Scientists estimated that we would go to Mars by the 1980's.  And, I'm still waiting for my flying car and Fusion powered cities.  Maybe they have just developed differently from us.  Perhaps they are more introverted and prefer to stay in their own system.  Maybe some of their planets have been ripped apart by war.  Maybe they are so peaceful and docile that they advance much slower than we do.  Maybe other civilizations have clashed when they have met and are to preoccupied with that to visit our planet.  Remember, in galactic terms, our system is fairly remote.  Not only that, but a species managing to stay around and thrive for even 10 million years is a little unreasonable, let alone 50 million.

Or, maybe they visited here, once, a long time ago and saw a semi-intellegent spiecies developing, and either decided not to screw with the development of the planet, or simply weren't interested in this place, so they packed up and left.

What if we were planted here? Much like a farmer plants a seed and sits back and watches it grow.

While I would not embrace such a theory, I suppose it is possible.  Star Trek Already explored that oen though. 

[J. J.]

not in this galaxy.

Scientists estimate that it would take between 5 and 50 million years for a race to colonize the entire galaxy.  And we've yet to be colonized, and our sun is a relatively new star.  Therefore it's highly improbable that a very advanced civilization has arisen in our galaxy, unless they're long gone.

I've got to disagree with the idea that an alien race would be interested in colonization.  Building out of system colonies is expensive (in terms of resources) and probably difficult to govern (or control). 

Assume that Galatic Emperor Sloob IV has an empire with 100,000,000,000 Gorfs; also assume that Gorfs are cabon based lifeforms that need air food and water.  If they are capable of interstellar flight, they are capable of doing many things.  They can build stations, settle other planets in their system, "terraforming" them.

They fill their own system up and decide to colonize.  They have a choice:  Planets in a 20 light year radius or earth 100 light years away.

There are probably a lot of planets within a 50 light year radius.  It will be expensive to colonize, because of terraforming, but its still work it.  Maybe there are one or two that are pretty much like Gorfia and don't need much work.

Sloob the Tyrant looks at the situation.  It's going to cost more to send people to Earth, 150 light years away, and ship supplies to it.  It's going to be harder to defend it, if the H'Dok'ofs start trouble (again), that it will be that nice one 5 light years away.  Further, if they revolt, it's going to be easier to supress the planet five light years away than 150 light years away.  He (or She or It) looks at the situation and decides, "Ah, we'll keep it close to Homeworld."

They may be able to keep 20 Billion in their own system, including other planets, space stations, moons, and move the rest into the ten or twelve systems closer to Gorfica.

There probably isn't anyone else within a 35 light year radius.