ME GOV 2018: Does Susan Collins run?

[Horsemask]

Collins did some internal polling:

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http://davidfarmer.bangordailynews.com/2017/10/03/republicans/internal-memo-shows-collins-in-commanding-position-in-gop-primary-for-governor/#.WdPKHlSqzFg.twitter

Gotta think they tested against Mills.

Anyway, it is being reported now she will decide whether to run or not over Columbus Day weekend.

[The Other Castro]

Collins running for (and winning) governor is a bit of a conundrum. On the one hand, she would be much better than LePage, and would open up a seat for Democrats to win in 2020. On the other hand, a Democrat doesn’t win the governor race, and there is the chance that LePage could appoint someone (even himself) to the open seat and hold it until after the 2020 elections. My understanding is that he could do that if Collins resigns before taking office as governor, but that Collins would appoint her own replacement if she stayed as a Senator right until the point where she’s sworn in as governor. I guess, overall, that latter sequence of events is my ideal scenario.

[MAINEiac4434]

Oh my god she's actually going to ing do this and give us Senator Bruce Poliquin

[Alabama_Indy10]

Oh my god she's actually going to ing do this and give us Senator Bruce Poliquin

I would definitely support that.

[_]

Oh my god she might actually do it.

Oh no who's gonna be senator

[TheSaint250]

It'll be good to have one more moderate-Republican Northeast governor.  This race will be interesting to see, especially if Terry Hayes grows stronger.

[GlobeSoc]

She's a wholesome moderate, so everyone will drop out and applaud her for running, including me

[Don Vito Corleone]

Oh my god she's actually going to ing do this and give us Senator Bruce Poliquin

What happened to make you say that?

[The Other Castro]

I didn't think she was going to go for it before, but this whole nonsense with health care and now tax reform, among other things, may have turned her around. I wouldn't blame her for wanting to leave such a toxic working environment, especially to become the executive of an entire state.

[BudgieForce]

I didn't think she was going to go for it before, but this whole nonsense with health care and now tax reform, among other things, may have turned her around. I wouldn't blame her for wanting to leave such a toxic working environment, especially to become the executive of an entire state.

Olympia Snowe redux.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I didn't think she was going to go for it before, but this whole nonsense with health care and now tax reform, among other things, may have turned her around. I wouldn't blame her for wanting to leave such a toxic working environment, especially to become the executive of an entire state.

The problem is that her replacement might vote to repeal the ACA.  I'm pretty sure that's why folks like Heitkamp are trying to get her to stay in the Senate.  I definitely hope Collins doesn't run for Governor for this reason (especially since she could always choose not to run for re-election in 2020).  Keeping Obamacare alive for the next four years is simply too important and right now every vote matters in the Senate.

[The Other Castro]

I didn't think she was going to go for it before, but this whole nonsense with health care and now tax reform, among other things, may have turned her around. I wouldn't blame her for wanting to leave such a toxic working environment, especially to become the executive of an entire state.

The problem is that her replacement might vote to repeal the ACA.  I'm pretty sure that's why folks like Heitkamp are trying to get her to stay in the Senate.  I definitely hope Collins doesn't run for Governor for this reason (especially since she could always choose not to run for re-election in 2020).  Keeping Obamacare alive for the next four years is simply too important and right now every vote matters in the Senate.

The replacement is probably my biggest worry, though the ACA repeal would stay in the same failed calculus if Democrats took the House, or brought the Senate to 49-51 or 50-50.

[MAINEiac4434]

Oh my god she's actually going to ing do this and give us Senator Bruce Poliquin

What happened to make you say that?

She's doing polling on the race, man.

[Horsemask]

Oh my god she's actually going to ing do this and give us Senator Bruce Poliquin

Respectfully, I don't think you have to worry about Senator Poliquin.

[MAINEiac4434]

Oh my god she's actually going to ing do this and give us Senator Bruce Poliquin

Respectfully, I don't think you have to worry about Senator Poliquin.

Yeah, you have to assume two things:
1. He wins reelection in 2018.
2. Collins (or even LePage) would appoint him.

Both seem dubious.

1. Not necessarily. He could lose reelection and Governor Collins could still nominate him to her seat.

2. LePage would nominate someone much worse, but there are no obvious choices for Collins.

[The Other Castro]

LePage does seem like exactly the kind of person who would appoint himself.

[MAINEiac4434]

LePage does seem like exactly the kind of person who would appoint himself.

I don't necessarily think, though, that Collins resigns the Senate to give LePage enough time to appoint her successor. She could resign, like, the morning of inauguration day.

[Ye We Can]

Collins would probably win but D+1 once the Senate special happens. There aren't anymore wholesome moderate R's in Maine anymore and even if there were, LePage wouldn't appoint them.

[Sir Mohamed]

Collins would probably win but D+1 once the Senate special happens. There aren't anymore wholesome moderate R's in Maine anymore and even if there were, LePage wouldn't appoint them.

If Collins waits until her inauguration as governor, she could appoint her successor.

[PoliticalJunkie23]

I'm now fairly confidant that she will run for it. If she does, I'm 80% sure she will win the primary and then go on to dominate in the general. Even if more Republican partisans in Maine don't like her much anymore, they'll still realize she is a near guarantee to hold the governorship for the GOP. Or maybe they'll pull a 2010 Michael Castle and screw themselves.

[Ye We Can]

Collins would probably win but D+1 once the Senate special happens. There aren't anymore wholesome moderate R's in Maine anymore and even if there were, LePage wouldn't appoint them.

If Collins waits until her inauguration as governor, she could appoint her successor.

Ah fair enough. Although my earlier point about the successor still stands.

Who'd she appoint? Summers?

[MAINEiac4434]

Collins would probably win but D+1 once the Senate special happens. There aren't anymore wholesome moderate R's in Maine anymore and even if there were, LePage wouldn't appoint them.

If Collins waits until her inauguration as governor, she could appoint her successor.

Ah fair enough. Although my earlier point about the successor still stands.

Who'd she appoint? Summers?

Poliquin, maybe. Maybe Garrett Mason. I doubt she'd nominate a LePage-ite.

[Kingpoleon]

Collins would probably win but D+1 once the Senate special happens. There aren't anymore wholesome moderate R's in Maine anymore and even if there were, LePage wouldn't appoint them.

If Collins waits until her inauguration as governor, she could appoint her successor.

Ah fair enough. Although my earlier point about the successor still stands.

Who'd she appoint? Summers?

Poliquin, maybe. Maybe Garrett Mason. I doubt she'd nominate a LePage-ite.

Steve Abbott?

[Don Vito Corleone]

Why is everybody all of a sudden acting like she is all but certain to enter? What changed from a few weeks ago when most everyone thought she wouldn't enter?

[The Other Castro]

Collins to announce her decision on Friday:

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http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/10/politics/susan-collins-maine-governor-decision-friday/index.html


Paul Merrill‏ @PaulMerrillWMTW  6m6 minutes ago
Spokeswoman confirms @SenatorCollins will announce her gubernatorial bid decision in Maine on Friday. Details TBD. #mepolitics

https://twitter.com/PaulMerrillWMTW/status/917806063159783424