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Author Topic: Current 2018 Senate Predictions?  (Read 3902 times)
slightlyburnttoast
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« on: July 21, 2017, 10:36:20 pm »



SAFE D:
  • California
  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • Hawaii
  • Maine (I)
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • Minnesota
  • Rhode Island
  • Vermont (I)
  • Washington

LIKELY D:
  • Florida
  • Michigan
  • New Jersey
  • New Mexico
  • Virginia
  • West Virginia

LEAN D:

  • Montana
  • Nevada
  • North Dakota
  • Pennsylvania
  • Wisconsin

TOSSUP:
  • Missouri
  • Ohio
  • Indiana

LEAN R:
  • Arizona

LIKELY R:
  • Tennessee
  • Texas

SAFE R:
  • Alabama
  • Mississippi
  • Nebraska
  • Utah
  • Wyoming

46
51
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Endorsements:

'18 MI Gov: Gretchen Whitmer (D)
'18 MI Sen: Debbie Stabenow (D, inc.)
'18 MI 12th: Debbie Dingell (D, inc.)

'17 NJ Gov: Phil Murphy (D) Smiley
'17 VA Gov: Ralph Northam (D) Smiley
'17 AL Sen: Doug Jones (D)
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The Walrus
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2017, 09:57:27 am »

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House endorsements: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=282089.msg6005863#msg6005863
Not_Madigan
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« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2017, 01:01:58 pm »

Wrong page.
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mcmikk
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2017, 09:27:15 pm »

Quick question: Where do you make these maps? I'll just make a list for now:

Safe D:
Washington
California
Hawaii
Maryland
Delaware
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
New York
Vermont(I)

Likely D:
New Mexico
Minnesota
Michigan
Virginia
New Jersey
Maine(I)

Lean D:
Montana
North Dakota
Wisconsin
Ohio
West Virginia
Pennsylvania
Florida

Toss-Up:
Missouri
Indiana
Nevada

Lean R:
Arizona

Likely R:
Texas

Safe R:
Utah
Wyoming
Nebraska
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama

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Coraxion
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« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2017, 09:55:23 pm »

Quick question: Where do you make these maps?
http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php
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Senate Endorsements
AL: Doug Jones
NV: Jacky Rosen
AZ: Kyrsten Sinema
TX: Beto O'Rourke
UT: Jim Matheson
MO: Claire McCaskill
IN: Joe Donnelly
WV: Joe Manchin
MT: Jon Tester
ND: Heidi Heitkamp
WI: Tammy Baldwin
OH: Sherrod Brown
MI: Debbie Stabenow
FL: Bill Nelson
ME: Angus King
VA: Tim Kaine
PA: Bob Casey
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« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2017, 02:17:31 am »


Safe D
California
Washington
Minnesota
Illinois
Maryland
Delaware
New Jersey
New York  
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Hawaii
Likely D
 New Mexico
Montana  
Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Florida
Ohio
West Virginia
Virginia
Lean D
Nevada
North Dakota
Indiana

Toss Up
Arizona
Safe R
Wyoming
Nebraska
Tennessee
Mississippi
Likely R
Utah
Texas
Lean R
Missouri  

Safe I
Vermont
Likely I
Maine

reposting this from another thread
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PAK Man
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« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2017, 11:03:19 am »

Safe D
- California
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- Hawaii
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Minnesota
- New Mexico
- New York
- Rhode Island
- Vermont
- Washington

Likely D
- Maine
- Michigan
- New Jersey
- Virginia

Leans D
- Florida
- Missouri
- Montana
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin

Tossup
- Indiana
- Nevada
- North Dakota

Leans R
- Arizona

Safe R
- Mississippi
- Nebraska
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Wyoming
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Senator LouisvilleThunder
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2017, 01:04:46 pm »

« Last Edit: July 26, 2017, 10:37:47 am by LouisvilleThunder »Logged

MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2017, 01:16:31 pm »



Of the "Lean D" states, MI is most likely to go R IMO.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2017, 01:20:44 pm by MT Treasurer »Logged

the double digit Blanching Heitkamp is going to get.

Heitkamp would have lost by like 35 points instead of the 15 points she'll lose by now.

ND
Heitkamp - 57.2
Campbell - 39.4
MarkD
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« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2017, 01:27:20 pm »



Of the "Lean D" states, MI is most likely to go R IMO.

I think Alabama should be greyed out, because it is not having an election in 2018, it is having a special election this year.
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« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2017, 01:30:26 pm »



Of the "Lean D" states, MI is most likely to go R IMO.

I think Alabama should be greyed out, because it is not having an election in 2018, it is having a special election this year.
I think it's okay to include it until the election is done, a lot of people include VA and NJ in their governor maps.
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Endorsements:
AL-SEN: A GOP or Libertarian write-in, #NoMooreRoy
AZ-SEN: Matt Salmon
FL-SEN: Rick Scott
IN-SEN: Mike Braun
MI-SEN: Bob Young
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley
MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale
OH-SEN: Josh Mandel
PA-SEN: Lou Barletta
TN-SEN: Marsha Blackburn
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins
FL-GOV: Adam Putnam
OH-GOV: Jon Husted
TX-GOV: Greg Abbott
WI-GOV: Scott Walker
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen
NH-02: Annie Kuster
Crumpets
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« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2017, 03:03:24 pm »

Ds gain AZ and NV, Pubs gain MO and IN. No net change. Heitkamp hangs on by a hair.
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2017, 04:52:27 pm »

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Jimmie
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« Reply #13 on: July 25, 2017, 10:09:26 pm »

Nope. West Virginia and North Dakota are likely D.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #14 on: July 26, 2017, 12:15:14 am »

Dems gain Nevada and Arizona, Republicans gain North Dakota, West Virginia, and Indiana. McCaskill and Brown hangs on by the skin of their teeth.
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« Reply #15 on: July 26, 2017, 03:43:33 am »

Democratic pick-ups:Nevada
Republican pick-ups: Indiana, North Dakota

McCaskill and Tester narrowly hang on; Manchin wins by a comfortable margin.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #16 on: July 26, 2017, 06:31:37 am »

I have the Democrats gaining Nevada, Arizona, and Texas and the Republicans winning Missouri, Indiana, and West Virginia.
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« Reply #17 on: July 26, 2017, 06:47:40 am »

The Democrats pick up Nevada and Arizona. Republicans win West Virginia, Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota. Democrats comfortably win races in Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and other purple states while Cruz wins by 8-10% in the end.
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« Reply #18 on: July 26, 2017, 08:38:12 am »

The popular vote in the US Senate could well push 60% Democratic that is the amazing thing.

But here we go:

Solid Democratic:

California
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
New Mexico
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington

Likely Democratic

Maine (Well Maine is Maine)

New Jersey (Cloudiness with possible GOP Senator appointed by the governor)

North Dakota: lmao, if Heitkamp runs she will not be losing.

West Virgina: haha Manchin is not going to lose. He will win by double digits. Minimum by 10.

Michigan: blurs with likely and lean Democratic. Stabenow is the exact type of establishment politician that has been struggling lately but 2018 is not likely to be as good of a Republican year as 2016 and she seems to realize that she needs to take her race seriously.


Lean Democratic:

Pennsylvania (Could move to likely Democratic very quickly)

Wisconsin (Could move to toss up very quickly)

Florida: Nelson is like a remnant of the past and has had several lucky cycles which likely includes 2018. Not so much of a great politician but a lucky one.

Toss Ups:

Missouri (tilting R but with the climate McCaskill has a chance for a third election she is not supposed to win. Sure 2016 was likely inflated GOP in the state but still..)

Indiana (Hard to gauge this one as polling is very limited in Indiana)

Nevada (tilting Democratic but I am getting a sense of Democratic overconfidence here)

Montana (tilting Democrat)

Arizona (Could have two Senate seats open but hate to sound morbid. If 2018 is that Democratic, Democrats should win at least one of them.

Ohio: Brown is polling very poorly but it is easy for me to remember how rematches often turn out. I get the feeling a Republican other than Mandel would be favored and that Brown would be favored if he ran for Governor.

Lean Republican: Incredibly none at this time but places like Missouri, Indiana, Texas and Arizona could move into this category a year from today.

Likely Republican:

Texas: If the state was just smaller Beto O'rourke could win and make an epic upset but Democratic resources may well be better spent in smaller states such as MO, ND, OH, etc etc. Shows how unfair politics can be. While I am not a fan of !!!DEMOGRAPHICS ARE DESTINY!!!!!! demographics and low numbers for Trump should get O'Rourke 42 to 46%.

Utah: Moves closer to solid Republican daily. But if Hatch retires and Romney does not run who knows. Also it is a easy media market state so if Democrats REALLY wanted to contest it... I guess 2018 in an open seat is the year.

Solid Republican:

The great states of Mississippi, Nebraska and Tennessee. hahah
« Last Edit: July 26, 2017, 09:35:59 am by Jimmie »Logged

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« Reply #19 on: July 26, 2017, 09:17:24 am »

I'm gonna call it: Dems take the Senate by holding all of their own seats and gaining NV and both AZ seats.
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Senate Endorsements
AL: Doug Jones
NV: Jacky Rosen
AZ: Kyrsten Sinema
TX: Beto O'Rourke
UT: Jim Matheson
MO: Claire McCaskill
IN: Joe Donnelly
WV: Joe Manchin
MT: Jon Tester
ND: Heidi Heitkamp
WI: Tammy Baldwin
OH: Sherrod Brown
MI: Debbie Stabenow
FL: Bill Nelson
ME: Angus King
VA: Tim Kaine
PA: Bob Casey
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« Reply #20 on: July 26, 2017, 09:30:10 am »

Dem pickups- Nevada
Rep pickups- Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana

Ohio and Florida end up being a lot closer than people think, if Kid Rock runs Michigan ends up closer than predicted. Montana flirts with being close before Tester pulls away, he wins by 4. Arizona doesn't end up being as close as expected with Flake holding on by a similar margin. McCaskill gets stomped.
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Jimmie
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« Reply #21 on: July 26, 2017, 09:34:23 am »

NO THE GOP WILL NOT PICK UP NORTH DAKOTA NEXT YEAR!! HOW MANY TIMES DO WE HAVE TO GO THROUGH THIS? IF HEITKAMP RUNS AGAIN SHE WILL BE FINE.

I forgot Florida on my previous post. Anyway it Leans Democratic but Nelson can't breath too easily.
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« Reply #22 on: July 26, 2017, 09:35:41 am »

I'm gonna call it: Dems take the Senate by holding all of their own seats and gaining NV and both AZ seats.
That doesn't hand us the Senate though. That gives us a tie, which is broken by Pence. Unless you mean John McCain dies/resigns and a special election is held.
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2020 President: Steve Bullock, Bernie Sanders, Sherrod Brown
MA Governor: Robert Massey (D), Charlie Baker (R)
Boston Mayor: Tito Jackson
VA Governor: Ralph Northam
MA-07 Primary: Mike Capuano
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« Reply #23 on: July 26, 2017, 09:41:13 am »

NO THE GOP WILL NOT PICK UP NORTH DAKOTA NEXT YEAR!! HOW MANY TIMES DO WE HAVE TO GO THROUGH THIS? IF HEITKAMP RUNS AGAIN SHE WILL BE FINE.

I forgot Florida on my previous post. Anyway it Leans Democratic but Nelson can't breath too easily.

I wouldn't be so confident, its a small state and again this is a senator who won by 3,000 votes. Yes shes relatively liked, but we don't know how the climate is going to shake out in a state with big interests and shes clearly a top target. I am predicting she goes down.

I also think the hubris of the left is getting to a ridiculous point on this board.
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« Reply #24 on: July 26, 2017, 11:20:24 am »

I really don't understand why so many people think Tester is this heavily favored popular titan while Heitkamp is DOA.
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the double digit Blanching Heitkamp is going to get.

Heitkamp would have lost by like 35 points instead of the 15 points she'll lose by now.

ND
Heitkamp - 57.2
Campbell - 39.4
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