Current 2018 Senate Predictions?

[Rjjr77]

Dem pickups- Nevada
Rep pickups- Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana

Ohio and Florida end up being a lot closer than people think, if Kid Rock runs Michigan ends up closer than predicted. Montana flirts with being close before Tester pulls away, he wins by 4. Arizona doesn't end up being as close as expected with Flake holding on by a similar margin. McCaskill gets stomped.

[Rjjr77]

NO THE GOP WILL NOT PICK UP NORTH DAKOTA NEXT YEAR!! HOW MANY TIMES DO WE HAVE TO GO THROUGH THIS? IF HEITKAMP RUNS AGAIN SHE WILL BE FINE.

I forgot Florida on my previous post. Anyway it Leans Democratic but Nelson can't breath too easily.

I wouldn't be so confident, its a small state and again this is a senator who won by 3,000 votes. Yes shes relatively liked, but we don't know how the climate is going to shake out in a state with big interests and shes clearly a top target. I am predicting she goes down.

I also think the hubris of the left is getting to a ridiculous point on this board.

[Rjjr77]

I really don't understand why so many people think Tester is this heavily favored popular titan while Heitkamp is DOA.

I don't think Heitkamp is DOA or Tester is a heavily favored popular Titan, but I do think he wins, and she loses. I think he has to fight to win, and she loses a battle.

IN and MO are both much more likely to flip than WV and ND, and "R+2" is not the Republican ceiling. Geez.

I think Air Claire is absolutely done.

[Rjjr77]

IN and MO are both much more likely to flip than WV and ND, and "R+2" is not the Republican ceiling. Geez.

You can go circle jerk with Krazen if you honestly still think R+7 or whatever retarded projection you had is still likely. Not happnening with Trump's approval rating and this GCB.

R +7 is more likely than D +3.

[Rjjr77]

IN and MO are both much more likely to flip than WV and ND, and "R+2" is not the Republican ceiling. Geez.

You can go circle jerk with Krazen if you honestly still think R+7 or whatever retarded projection you had is still likely. Not happnening with Trump's approval rating and this GCB.

R +7 is more likely than D +3.

Where the hell did I say D+3?

its not specific to you, but there are people who think D +4 exist on here, and to call out an R + 7 as "retarded" (probably shouldn't still use that, but I'm not going to be the PC Police) when there are a large chunk of people up here who think D +4 (let alone D+3) exist.

As for your initial analysis, the question is not if trump is unpopular it is where and with whom is he unpopular, there are a lot of moderate republicans and right leaning unaffiliated who aren't particularly approving of trump, these people will still vote republican. As for where, I think approval numbers for trump are higher in several states than people think they are, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, Ohio, Michigan, and North Dakota being a handful of them. At this point I don't trust the approval numbers, because just like 1vs1 national horse races national approval ratings aren't going to be deciding the senate seats (they'd do better in the house races)

[Rjjr77]

Seeing as I have only been here since December of 2016, I'm not sure what the hell you're talking about. Or if you've even seen my avatar. NEWS FLASH: predicting a good D year != being a Democrat.

There are several people who have a green avatar and are still more partisan than the most hackish red or blue avatars. My impression is that you definitely seem to despise the Republican base, even more so than the party itself.

I don't even care about your predictions, I just find it laughable that there seems to be a consensus on this site that the GOP can't pick up more than 2 seats. It wouldn't be as insufferable if people didn't keep repeating it it in every thread on this board. Like it or not, not every race in the country will be decided by the president's approval ratings, or else people like Heitkamp, Manchin, JBE, Scott, etc. all wouldn't be serving today. Even in 2014, the GOP struggled to win in Democratic leaning-states and in Republican states like KS and GA.

The worst part of all of this is that after the Democrats win in VA and NJ in 2017 and make gains in the legislatures, everyone will see this as proof that  2018 will be a Democratic landslide.

Did they really struggle in Georgia? Perdue won an open seat against a legendary name by over 7 points.

[Rjjr77]

Did they really struggle in Georgia? Perdue won an open seat against a legendary name by over 7 points.

They had to pour millions into GA and KS, which was pretty pathetic IMO. Most people thought the race was going to go to a runoff.

I know the state is trending Democratic, but Nunn was an incredibly overrated candidate and didn't really excite the Democratic base.

Also, the map was incredibly bad for Democrats in 2014. Had the Class 3 Senators been up for reelection in 2014, the Dems likely would have picked up a seat despite it being an Obama midterm (NH and IL, but a loss in NV). Maybe Toomey would have lost as well, given Corbett's implosion.

I don't think the state is trending democratic, its less republican but until the democrats actually win something (anything) statewide how can we continue to say that? 2016 and 2012 the vote margins for democrats weren't much different, many more went with the libertarian.