Current 2018 Senate Predictions?

[jamestroll]

Nope. West Virginia and North Dakota are likely D.

[jamestroll]

The popular vote in the US Senate could well push 60% Democratic that is the amazing thing.

But here we go:

Solid Democratic:

California
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
New Mexico
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington

Likely Democratic

Maine (Well Maine is Maine)

New Jersey (Cloudiness with possible GOP Senator appointed by the governor)

North Dakota: lmao, if Heitkamp runs she will not be losing.

West Virgina: haha Manchin is not going to lose. He will win by double digits. Minimum by 10.

Michigan: blurs with likely and lean Democratic. Stabenow is the exact type of establishment politician that has been struggling lately but 2018 is not likely to be as good of a Republican year as 2016 and she seems to realize that she needs to take her race seriously.


Lean Democratic:

Pennsylvania (Could move to likely Democratic very quickly)

Wisconsin (Could move to toss up very quickly)

Florida: Nelson is like a remnant of the past and has had several lucky cycles which likely includes 2018. Not so much of a great politician but a lucky one.

Toss Ups:

Missouri (tilting R but with the climate McCaskill has a chance for a third election she is not supposed to win. Sure 2016 was likely inflated GOP in the state but still..)

Indiana (Hard to gauge this one as polling is very limited in Indiana)

Nevada (tilting Democratic but I am getting a sense of Democratic overconfidence here)

Montana (tilting Democrat)

Arizona (Could have two Senate seats open but hate to sound morbid. If 2018 is that Democratic, Democrats should win at least one of them.

Ohio: Brown is polling very poorly but it is easy for me to remember how rematches often turn out. I get the feeling a Republican other than Mandel would be favored and that Brown would be favored if he ran for Governor.

Lean Republican: Incredibly none at this time but places like Missouri, Indiana, Texas and Arizona could move into this category a year from today.

Likely Republican:

Texas: If the state was just smaller Beto O'rourke could win and make an epic upset but Democratic resources may well be better spent in smaller states such as MO, ND, OH, etc etc. Shows how unfair politics can be. While I am not a fan of !!!DEMOGRAPHICS ARE DESTINY!!!!!! demographics and low numbers for Trump should get O'Rourke 42 to 46%.

Utah: Moves closer to solid Republican daily. But if Hatch retires and Romney does not run who knows. Also it is a easy media market state so if Democrats REALLY wanted to contest it... I guess 2018 in an open seat is the year.

Solid Republican:

The great states of Mississippi, Nebraska and Tennessee. hahah

[jamestroll]

NO THE GOP WILL NOT PICK UP NORTH DAKOTA NEXT YEAR!! HOW MANY TIMES DO WE HAVE TO GO THROUGH THIS? IF HEITKAMP RUNS AGAIN SHE WILL BE FINE.

I forgot Florida on my previous post. Anyway it Leans Democratic but Nelson can't breath too easily.

[jamestroll]

IN and MO are both much more likely to flip than WV and ND, and "R+2" is not the Republican ceiling. Geez.

I agree though I think Democrats could win all four.

I think all the hate for Heitkamp here is because she is a female. geez.

[jamestroll]

McCaskill is gone

She's certainly not favored imo, but calling her DOA when election day is over a year away is just asking for her to win.

My thoughts exactly. It is a race she should not win and it would be the third election that she is not supposed to win.

But still the overconfidence I am feeling from the MO GOP on this race mirrors the overconfidence I felt from MO Democrats on the gubernatorial contest last year.