Warren/Bullock vs. Trump/Pence

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

As Governor Steve Bullock convincingly won your VP nomination:
What would a map between those two tickets look like?
How strong would the third-party vote be?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Warren/Bullock: Trump/Pence:

353 185

[GlobeSoc]

I would expect a/some vigorous 3rd party challenge(s) splitting the vote with Trump.

Warren:53%
Trump:40%
Random conservative(s):7%

Essentially the result is 2008, now with more wwc and sunbelters

[pbrower2a]

The dominant reality of the 2020 election will be the gross failure of Donald Trump as President. Between the average polling now distributed by state form Gallup in the first six months of the Trump Administration and subsequent polls of approval for the President, this is what I see. At this point Donald Trump is close to setting up a landslide loss characteristic of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. He is going to need miracles to be re-elected, which means that he has no way of getting an improved America quickly enough after forcing some hard sacrifices.   

I do not see him winning a free and fair election. At this point., if someone tells me that he will be re-elected, then I will assume that the election will have been rigged to get the result. 

Approval ratings:

(States with ten or more electoral votes for which the measure of approval  rating is an average of polls over six months include Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, and Ohio. That group does not look good for Donald Trump.  The Democrat must win Illinois, Minnesota, and one other of those states for a bare win of the Presidency, and those states are diverse enough that except for Indiana that there is no way for Trump to offer a coherent message to win them all.

The Trump deficiency in Texas is not a one-poll freak. One Texas pollster has two polls corroborating Trump's trouble there, and the Gallup average in Texas is consistent with that.



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

[McGovernForPrez]

Honestly that's such a strong Democratic ticket. Depending on how Warren plays it I could see a lot up for grabs.

[Lord Admirale]

The dominant reality of the 2020 election will be the gross failure of Donald Trump as President. Between the average polling now distributed by state form Gallup in the first six months of the Trump Administration and subsequent polls of approval for the President, this is what I see. At this point Donald Trump is close to setting up a landslide loss characteristic of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. He is going to need miracles to be re-elected, which means that he has no way of getting an improved America quickly enough after forcing some hard sacrifices.   

I do not see him winning a free and fair election. At this point., if someone tells me that he will be re-elected, then I will assume that the election will have been rigged to get the result. 

Approval ratings:

(States with ten or more electoral votes for which the measure of approval  rating is an average of polls over six months include Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, and Ohio. That group does not look good for Donald Trump.  The Democrat must win Illinois, Minnesota, and one other of those states for a bare win of the Presidency, and those states are diverse enough that except for Indiana that there is no way for Trump to offer a coherent message to win them all.

The Trump deficiency in Texas is not a one-poll freak. One Texas pollster has two polls corroborating Trump's trouble there, and the Gallup average in Texas is consistent with that.



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

You've been spewing this map all day and no matter how much you spew it, it will still mean nothing. You (the Democrats) underestimated Trump's support, supporters, and their loyalty, and continue to do so.

[Lord Admirale]

344-194

[Coraxion]

Honestly that's such a strong Democratic ticket. Depending on how Warren plays it I could see a lot up for grabs.

Bullock would be a great VP for Warren, but I think Warren being on the ticket at all would be more of a liability than an asset.

[libertpaulian]

344-194

Um, Trump would in NV if he's winning CO, VA, and MN, and losing ME-1 by such a small margin.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Trump

[The Govanah Jake]

Elizabeth Warren/Steve Bullock - 278 49.58%

Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 260 47.94%

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Elizabeth Warren/Steve Bullock - 278 49.58%

Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 260 47.94%

I thinks Warren would win both NE-02 and ME-02.

[The Govanah Jake]

Elizabeth Warren/Steve Bullock - 278 49.58%

Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 260 47.94%

I thinks Warren would win both NE-02 and ME-02.

Trump won Maines Second District by 10%. A Warren victory like this would definitely narrow the margin but that wouldn't be enough to overcome Trump.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

In my opinion, Warren is one of least electable potential 2020 candidates, but Bullock probably helps boost her up a little among the WWC Midwesterners who swung against Hillary. The anti-Trump sentiment would probably be enough for them to narrowly win.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) / Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) - 278 EV
Pres. Donald Trump (R-NY) / VP Mike Pence (R-IN) - 260 EV

PA, IA, NV, NE-02, and ME-02 are the closest races.

[DPKdebator]

While Bullock would help add strength to the ticket, Warren isn't the strongest candidate and any possible gains among demographics like the WWC would be offset by pro-Republican swings among groups like wealthier suburbanites (Warren is kind of like a combination between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton):

Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 341 EV, 51.78%
Elizabeth Warren / Steve Bullock - 197 EV, 47.32%

[GGover]

Bullock is so insanely overrated here. If a bunch of red states flip to Warren/Bullock, it's more likely because of Trump's staggering unpopularity rather than Bullock. What's the use of even having a governor who has no experience in Washington as VP? (I'm honestly curious).

In my opinion, Warren is one of least electable potential 2020 candidates, but Bullock probably helps boost her up a little among the WWC Midwesterners who swung against Hillary. The anti-Trump sentiment would probably be enough for them to narrowly win.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) / Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) - 278 EV
Pres. Donald Trump (R-NY) / VP Mike Pence (R-IN) - 260 EV

PA, IA, NV, NE-02, and ME-02 are the closest races.

This seems like the most likely outcome to me. Even though Trump is historically unpopular, Republicans will still vote for him over Warren.

[Beet]

Contrary to common belief, Warren is one of the strongest candidates the Democrats have. She is perhaps the only nationally prominent Democrat under age 75 who would get strong support from both the populist/progressive and social wings of the Democratic party.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) / Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) - 334 EV
Pres. Donald Trump (R-NY) / VP Mike Pence (R-IN) - 204 EV

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Bullock is so insanely overrated here. If a bunch of red states flip to Warren/Bullock, it's more likely because of Trump's staggering unpopularity rather than Bullock. What's the use of even having a governor who has no experience in Washington as VP? (I'm honestly curious).

Are you implying that governors aren't able to be good presidents?

[GGover]

Bullock is so insanely overrated here. If a bunch of red states flip to Warren/Bullock, it's more likely because of Trump's staggering unpopularity rather than Bullock. What's the use of even having a governor who has no experience in Washington as VP? (I'm honestly curious).

Are you implying that governors aren't able to be good presidents?

No, of course not, I'm saying that governors aren't the best choice for VICE president.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

No, of course not, I'm saying that governors aren't the best choice for VICE president.

Why? Did Palin scare you off so much?

I think the combination of congressman/governor for a presidential ticket is a good match-up.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Lol, Warren wouldn't win Utah and Montana (the latter could definitely flip, but not with Warren as the Democratic nominee). This is as ridiculous as all the maps showing Trump winning VA and CT.

I'm assuming McMullin is going to run again. But even if he doesn't a Utah win isn't beyond reach for Warren.