Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 17, 2017, 01:03:33 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Hash)
| | |-+  Alberta United Conservative Party Leadership Election, 2017
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Author Topic: Alberta United Conservative Party Leadership Election, 2017  (Read 3058 times)
Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
Njall
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 733
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -4.70


View Profile
« on: July 23, 2017, 07:44:51 pm »
Ignore

With Saturday's ratification of the unity agreement by members of Alberta's PC and Wildrose parties, a leadership race will now be starting. The leadership election is scheduled for October 28, 2017, and from what I have seen party members will be voting by preferential ballot.

The soon-to-be (once recognized by Elections Alberta) UCP caucus will be meeting tomorrow afternoon to choose an Interim Leader, who will be barred from contesting the leadership election. Three names have been thrown around as potential Interim Leaders:
  • Nathan Cooper (Wildrose MLA for Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills)
  • Prasad Panda (Wildrose MLA for Calgary-Foothills)
  • Richard Gotfried (PC MLA for Calgary-Fish Creek)

Further details of the election will be determined by the UCP Leadership Election Committee, which will be comprised of 12 UCP members, of whom 6 each will be appointed by Brian Jean and Jason Kenney from their respective parties.

So far, there are four candidates who have been widely-discussed as running:
  • Jason Kenney: Current leader of the PC Party, and former Harper Conservative Cabinet Minister and MP for Calgary Midnapore
  • Brian Jean: Current leader of the Wildrose Party and MLA for Fort McMurray-Conklin. Former federal Conservative MP for Fort McMurray--Athabasca
  • Derek Fildebrandt: Wildrose finance critic and MLA for Strathmore-Brooks. Former Alberta Director of the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation. Has recently been exploring a leadership bid on a "liberty conservatism" platform. Regardless of whether he ends up running, he has said he will not be supporting Brian Jean, his current party leader. Has released some policies on his website: http://www.derekfildebrandt.ca
  • Doug Schweitzer: A lawyer from Calgary. Has been active in conservative party circles for a while, serving (amongst other things) as an organizer on Jim Prentice's PC leadership campaign. I believe he also used to be Executive Director of the Manitoba PC Party. Campaign website is here: http://www.dougschweitzer.com/landing-page?splash=1.
Logged
🍁 Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23866
Canada


View Profile WWW
« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2017, 11:14:28 am »
Ignore

Kenney, Jean and Fildebrandt? A basket of deplorables. Actually, I don't mind Jean that much. Seems like a nice guy, and I felt bad that he lost his house in the wildfire last year. But either Kenney or Fildebrant as Premier would be very upsetting.
 
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18668
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2017, 03:39:57 pm »
Ignore

Cooper is interim leader.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
Cynthia
ueutyi
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 386
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -7.83


View Profile WWW
« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2017, 09:26:47 pm »
Ignore

Interestingly, Fildebrandt's policy examples don't seem horrible. While I do have libertarian tendencies, I would not allow myself to support someone massively reducing tax rates, although I do admire his stance on social deregulation.
Logged

Progressive Dem with a pragmatist bent
Canadian. Male. Called Cynthia by mistake. 

🍁 Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23866
Canada


View Profile WWW
« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2017, 08:52:56 am »
Ignore

Fildebrandt was in at least one of my classes in university, and I can confirm the man is a nutcase. He had a big reputation as being the most right wing person on campus. No wonder he moved to the most right wing part of Alberta to start his political career. (Actually, this practice is quite common for young conservatives to move to Alberta to get in to politics; there are many examples of this).
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10678
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2017, 08:00:12 pm »
Ignore


So, they chose a raging homophobe.
Logged
adma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1032
View Profile
« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2017, 09:34:06 pm »
Ignore

(Actually, this practice is quite common for young conservatives to move to Alberta to get in to politics; there are many examples of this).

Most notably, Leaside youngster/Etobicoke teen Stephen Harper.
Logged
Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
Njall
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 733
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -4.70


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2017, 01:46:11 pm »
Ignore

As an update to the race, Schweitzer, Jean, and Kenney are all officially in the race.

Jean has so far received the endorsements of seven UCP MLAs (all previously Wildrose MLAs):
  • Leela Aheer (Chestermere-Rocky View)
  • Todd Loewen (Grande Prairie-Smoky)
  • Don MacIntyre (Innisfail-Sylvan Lake)
  • Angela Pitt (Airdrie)
  • Ron Orr (Lacombe-Ponoka)
  • Glenn van Dijken (Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock)
  • Tany Yao (Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo)

Jean is also being supported by Blaine Calkins, MP for Red Deer--Lacombe.

Meanwhile, Kenney has received the endorsements of the following Conservative MPs:
  • Michael Cooper (St. Albert--Edmonton)
  • Jim Eglinski (Yellowhead)
  • Garnett Genuis (Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan)
  • Matt Jeneroux (Edmonton Riverbend)
  • Tom Kmiec (Calgary Shepard)
  • Ron Liepert (Calgary Signal Hill)
  • Arnold Viersen (Peace River--Westlock)

-----------------------------------

Mainstreet has released a poll testing how the UCP would fare in an election under each leadership candidate

Topline Results:
Jean: 59%-28%-9%-4%
Kenney: 56%-30%-9%-5%
Fildebrandt: 54%-30%-11%-5%
Schweitzer: 52%-31%-12%-6%

Including Undecideds:
Jean: 48%-21%-6%-3%-21%
Kenney: 41%-22%-6%-3%-28%
Fildebrandt: 43%-24%-8%-4%-21%
Schweitzer: 41%-23%-8%-4%-24%
Logged
🍁 Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23866
Canada


View Profile WWW
« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2017, 06:53:09 am »
Ignore

Nice to see that weasel Kenney is polling worse than Jean.
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
Njall
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 733
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -4.70


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2017, 12:18:42 pm »
Ignore

Kenney's been touring around southern Alberta for the last day-and-a-half, picking up a few more endorsements from elected officials. Specifically, three UCP (all formerly WRP) MLAs are now backing Kenney: Grant Hunter (Cardston-Taber-Warner), Drew Barnes (Cypress-Medicine Hat), and Rick Strankman (Drumheller-Stettler).

Of note, Barnes was the second-place finisher behind Jean during the 2015 WRP leadership. As well, Barnes and Strankman are two of the three remaining MLAs who were part of the WRP's 2012 caucus.
Logged
adma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1032
View Profile
« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2017, 09:45:50 pm »
Ignore

Wonder if this'll be a south-vs-north battle...
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18668
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2017, 11:53:24 am »
Ignore

Fildebrandt out, reiterates his anti-Jean stance. Will he endorse Kenney, Njall?
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
Poirot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1737
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2017, 12:22:24 pm »
Ignore

Why is he strongly against Jean?
Logged

Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
Njall
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 733
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -4.70


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2017, 12:51:27 pm »
Ignore


I would be incredibly surprised if he didn't end up backing Kenney. It's widely-known in political circles here that he backs Kenney personally, but even aside from that, he'll obviously never back Jean, and the style and substance of Kenney's politics is much closer to Fildebrandt's than Schweitzer's is. So even by simple process of elimination, Kenney would be the logical choice for him to back.


Why is he strongly against Jean?

While I don't know the whole story there, the two of them seem to have a fairly long-running personal animosity that occasionally spills over into the public sphere. There was that incident, for example, when Jean briefly suspended Fildbrandt from caucus and from his finance critic role when he responded "proud to have constituents like you" to an online comment from a supporter who referred to Kathleen Wynne as "Mr. Wynne."
Logged
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10678
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2017, 05:08:14 pm »
Ignore

Why is he strongly against Jean?

Jean has principles and isn't a bigot, unlike Kenney.
Logged
Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
Njall
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 733
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -4.70


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2017, 10:40:43 am »
Ignore

Fildebrandt was in at least one of my classes in university, and I can confirm the man is a nutcase. He had a big reputation as being the most right wing person on campus. No wonder he moved to the most right wing part of Alberta to start his political career. (Actually, this practice is quite common for young conservatives to move to Alberta to get in to politics; there are many examples of this).

With the above in mind, I think Hatman will smile while he reads this story.

Fildebrandt is blaming Jean for leaking this. He's already doing damage control by offering to donate the money back, but considering this guy's old job with the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation, this looks terrible.
Logged
DC Al Fine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10687
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: August 10, 2017, 04:52:24 pm »
Ignore

Incidentally, Fildebrandt is a great example of why parties should be giving fewer safe seats to non-locals. Too many staffers and activists are getting seats that could be going to some random lawyer or small businessman who keeps their foot out of their mouth.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 04:22:22 am by DC Al Fine »Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1315
Canada


View Profile WWW
« Reply #17 on: August 10, 2017, 10:57:52 pm »
Ignore

Fildebrant is too erratic and extreme.  He is the one candidate I think who could actually lose the election for them.  Brian Jean is pretty well liked so if the party wants to ensure a win, he is probably the best choice.  Kenney is fairly polarizing type but he could do well amongst ethnic communities.  He is hated in Edmonton so would probably ensure another NDP sweep there whereas Jean at least might be able to pick up a seat or two, but in Calgary asides from a few central ridings I still suspect he would win.  He is very much like Stephen Harper so I suspect with him at the helm any area the Tories in 2015 got over 50% he would win while where they got under 50% he wouldn't (note the left is more united in Alberta provincially than federally).  I suspect he jumped into provincial politics as he knew he couldn't beat Trudeau federally.  Luckily for him Alberta is one of two provinces that didn't reject Harper in 2015 so it won't cause as much drag to him as it would in Ontario and especially BC.

I think the real danger for the UCP is not 2019, but 2023.  If they govern too much to the right I could see the centre uniting (Alberta Party, Alberta Liberals, and dissatisfied former Progressive Conservatives) and after lurching from one end to another Albertans decide to stop in the centre.  In many ways the Alberta Party is probably the party closest to the median voter but like other Western provinces as well as like you have in the UK, it seems Alberta at least next time around is moving to a strong left/right polarization and the centrist holding their nose up and voting for whichever they dislike the least.  In both the most recent BC and UK election most centrist disliked both options (both places have more of them than most realize) and simply voted for the lesser of the two evils but were unenthusiastic either way.
Logged

Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
Njall
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 733
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -4.70


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2017, 05:49:52 pm »
Ignore

Forgot to post yesterday, but former WRP President Jeff Callaway is running for UCP Leader.
Logged
🍁 Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23866
Canada


View Profile WWW
« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2017, 07:07:08 pm »
Ignore

Fildebrandt was in at least one of my classes in university, and I can confirm the man is a nutcase. He had a big reputation as being the most right wing person on campus. No wonder he moved to the most right wing part of Alberta to start his political career. (Actually, this practice is quite common for young conservatives to move to Alberta to get in to politics; there are many examples of this).

With the above in mind, I think Hatman will smile while he reads this story.

Fildebrandt is blaming Jean for leaking this. He's already doing damage control by offering to donate the money back, but considering this guy's old job with the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation, this looks terrible.

Yes this does bring a smile to my face Cheesy

My take on Alberta polarization is that it's not a left vs. right polarization but a centrist vs. right polarization. The NDP united the centre and centre left in 2015, while the right (which has a bigger slice of the pie) was divided. If the centre still likes the NDP going forward (most still do), I don't see the Alberta Party going anywhere. Notley may be hated by the right in Alberta, but I still think she's respected by most people in the middle. Perhaps someone in Alberta would know better though.
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1315
Canada


View Profile WWW
« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2017, 10:52:33 pm »
Ignore

Fildebrandt was in at least one of my classes in university, and I can confirm the man is a nutcase. He had a big reputation as being the most right wing person on campus. No wonder he moved to the most right wing part of Alberta to start his political career. (Actually, this practice is quite common for young conservatives to move to Alberta to get in to politics; there are many examples of this).

With the above in mind, I think Hatman will smile while he reads this story.

Fildebrandt is blaming Jean for leaking this. He's already doing damage control by offering to donate the money back, but considering this guy's old job with the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation, this looks terrible.

Yes this does bring a smile to my face Cheesy

My take on Alberta polarization is that it's not a left vs. right polarization but a centrist vs. right polarization. The NDP united the centre and centre left in 2015, while the right (which has a bigger slice of the pie) was divided. If the centre still likes the NDP going forward (most still do), I don't see the Alberta Party going anywhere. Notley may be hated by the right in Alberta, but I still think she's respected by most people in the middle. Perhaps someone in Alberta would know better though.

Not from Alberta but have family there and my take is Notley's popularity amongst the centre depends a lot on geography.  Unlike federally Edmonton and Calgary often vote quite differently and in Edmonton she is still quite popular and would likely win most if not all seats there if an election was called today.  In Calgary by contrast she has a core support of 25-30% but a lot really dislike her there and Calgary is not as right wing as in the past as it has with its younger more diverse population become more centrist and if you look at the mainstreet poll the Alberta Party is largely concentrated in Calgary.  The reason I think the Alberta Party could gain is many Red Tories from the PC side much like you saw with the federal merger will probably find the UCP too right wing but going all the way over to the NDP is a bridge too far.  For all this talk of her being quite centrist, I think that is questionable.  On things like oil sands development and pipelines, she is very centrist, but on things like deficits and government spending not so much and that is where I think the Alberta Party has potential to appeal to those who are fiscally conservative but socially progressive.  Off course in the end they may get squeezed out as lots of third parties do. 

While the election is still another 21 months away I would venture to guess the most likely outcome (but could be wrong as I have been before) is the UCP win by a landslide in popular vote, but in seats it is not nearly as big a blowout.  Otherwise Rest of Alberta is a massive win for the UCP perhaps four times as many votes as NDP and that is over 40% of Alberta.  In Calgary the UCP is the favourite but the NDP does have a strong base of 25% meaning if the economy ticks upward and the Alberta Party gains and it comes exclusively from the UCP, they might not do as badly as some think although at this point I think the UCP will win the majority of seats in Calgary but won't sweep the city.  Edmonton at least at the moment looks to stay largely NDP, possibly a complete sweep again.  That being said Edmonton does often go Tory federally, but with a lot working in the provincial civil service I suspect you have a fair number of crossover voters who vote left provincially (want higher salaries) but vote right federally (want tax cuts).
Logged

adma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1032
View Profile
« Reply #21 on: August 12, 2017, 11:25:10 pm »
Ignore

Whither the Alberta Liberals, then?  (Might they strike a "marriage of convenience" with the Alberta Party?)
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1315
Canada


View Profile WWW
« Reply #22 on: August 12, 2017, 11:42:57 pm »
Ignore

Whither the Alberta Liberals, then?  (Might they strike a "marriage of convenience" with the Alberta Party?)

I think they will.  I think you will see a unite the centre between the Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party and likewise they will include many Red Tories from the former Alberta PCs which are not comfortable with the merged party.  Doubt they will go that far in 2019, but I think in 2023 they have a much better chance for a breakthrough.
Logged

🍁 Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23866
Canada


View Profile WWW
« Reply #23 on: August 13, 2017, 12:06:14 am »
Ignore

Whither the Alberta Liberals, then?  (Might they strike a "marriage of convenience" with the Alberta Party?)

I think they will.  I think you will see a unite the centre between the Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party and likewise they will include many Red Tories from the former Alberta PCs which are not comfortable with the merged party.  Doubt they will go that far in 2019, but I think in 2023 they have a much better chance for a breakthrough.

I disagree. I think it's more likely the Liberals will disappear into irrelevancy (if they have not done so already) like they did in Saskatchewan.
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1315
Canada


View Profile WWW
« Reply #24 on: August 13, 2017, 12:25:00 am »
Ignore

Whither the Alberta Liberals, then?  (Might they strike a "marriage of convenience" with the Alberta Party?)

I think they will.  I think you will see a unite the centre between the Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party and likewise they will include many Red Tories from the former Alberta PCs which are not comfortable with the merged party.  Doubt they will go that far in 2019, but I think in 2023 they have a much better chance for a breakthrough.

I disagree. I think it's more likely the Liberals will disappear into irrelevancy (if they have not done so already) like they did in Saskatchewan.

Depends on who the UCP leader is too.  If the UCP leader is too right wing I think there will be enough who want a fiscally conservative but socially progressive party for a party in the centre to exist.  If the next leader is not too right wing than you are probably right.  In BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba the centre-right parties have generally been careful not go too far to the right whereas in Alberta there is an eliminate in the UCP that wants to take a hard right turn whereas in the other three provinces people know the hard right will never fly.
Logged

Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines