Which of the following do you consider swing states?

[Virginiá]

Why do people still consider North Carolina a Swing State? It voted Democrat one time in like 40 years or something. And that was only during perfect circumstances. Since then it has voted Republican in every single election (2012 and 2016). Even during an election when the Democrat Candidate won. And if you look at both election results and Party Identification it's only getting more and more Republican. This is despite the fact that both the Obama and Hillary Campaign (Especially Her Campaign) spent an enourmous amount of Resources trying to turn it Democrat.

Because it has remained close - mostly within the same margin vs national pv win. As others stated in another thread, proportionate to the PV margin, NC actually trended a tiny bit Democratic in 2016, but not to any degree truly worth mentioning. In fact, North Carolina has largely stalled out, and isn't really becoming more and more [any party]. The registration gains you speak of are not isolated to NC either - they are leftover party labels from voters who have long stopped voting for Democrats at the presidential level, if not all levels, but have yet to shed their party labels. Florida, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma and other states have similar things going on. It's largely meaningless. If you want to read more on this, here is a link.

As it stands now, barring a candidate that is unusually more appealing to North Carolina voters, NC is just a leans R state that can flip to the Democrat if they have a win at least larger than 2012. But at the same time, it doesn't change that most of the long-term state level trends do not seem that favorable to Republicans.

[Lechasseur]

Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

[Beet]

Haha that 17 people voted Ohio, which went Trump by 8, but only 7 voted Virginia, which only went Clinton by 5. Don't be surprised if Gillespie narrowly wins in November.

Your statement would make more sense if you had said "Don't be surprised when the Democrats will lose Ohio in both 2018 and 2020".

I'm not saying Ohio isn't a swing state, I'm saying Virginia is one. Although Brown is an underdog, he could certainly still win.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

All except New Mexico.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI, MI, Pa and VA 279 blue wall Cory Booker can hold onto

[AN63093]

If we take 'swing state' in its most literal sense, and we're just talking about states that have a reasonable possibility of voting either R or D, then I'd argue all of those are swing states with the exception of VA (which I think is slipping away too quickly from the GOP), maybe GA (which looks good long-term for the Dems, but I don't think is there yet), and NM (just not a swing state).  OH, CO, and IA are states that seem to be falling out of the "swing state" category as well, but I'm not sure we're quite there yet.

Now, on the other hand, if we narrow the definition a bit and what you're really asking about are toss-ups, i.e. states that we expect both parties to have a roughly equal probability of winning and will be too close to call... well, it's way too early to know what those states will be with any sort of precision, but my premature guess would be FL, PA, WI, with a possibility of NC.  Less possible, but worth considering, are NH, and maybe MI (I think the jury's still out on whether that was a flash in the pan).

Finally, if what we're asking is what states do we think will actually be contested heavily by the parties.. that's yet another category that's larger than the toss-ups, but will not include all the swing states.  For example, Maine won't be, just because there's not enough EVs.  Iowa might also fall into this category-- although it tied for 7th in 2016 in campaign visits (along with NH), I wonder if that will continue going forward.  It's certainly possible we see a state like AZ unseat it, and I would be surprised if WI doesn't as well.  FL was #1 in campaign visits in 2016 and I expect it'll probably be #1 again in 2020.  Maybe PA will be #2 (it was #3 last time, behind NC).

[Suburban Republican]

AZ, NC, NE-2, FL, WI, MI, PA, NH & NV. Conflicted over MN.

If we're talking battleground, then all except NM.

[Xing]

If we're defining swing state somewhat loosely, I'll say all of them except New Mexico, though the jury's still out on Colorado, Iowa, and Maine.