Which of the following do you consider swing states?

[The Govanah Jake]

Arizona - Probably still more likely then not to vote Republican but the 2016 Margin shows that it definitely aint as Republican as it used to be.

Colorado - Colorado could vote for a Republican under the proper circumstances however it is becoming harder and harder for republicans to win in close elections the path there heading. Considering Clinton was not the best fit for the state and still won by almost 5% when most other swing states fell for Trump is a worrying sign for Republicans. If the trends continue it will be going down the way that Virginia is going down. A pseudo swing state which is close in polls but in the end votes 2-6% more democratic then the nation as a whole which would make it a slight to lean democratic state

Florida - Yep still a swing state

Georgia - Like Arizona. A Slight R. State which is not as solid as it use to be and with growing minority and college educated populations in the urban areas and suburbs in a Republican Party dominated by Trump wont bold well for Republicans there.

Iowa - After 2016 and Trumps almost 10% victory there, i would say that it definitely is proving more friendly for the republicans then before. If 2020 is close at all then i would say that Iowa would be Lean Trump in that case or Lean Republican depending on the Republican Nominee. However 1
election doesnt make a trend and we have to look at future presidential and congressional elections
here to see if Trumps Trend in Iowa for Republicans in Permanent. 2020 will probably narrow down trumps margin in Iowa do too some disaffected 2016 trump voters returning to voting traditionally democratic if the Democrats nominate a Sane Candidate. I wouldn't exactly call it a Swing state right now but i wouldn't call it lean Trump

Michigan - A Trumpist Republican Party is definitely making Michigan a swing state and with Trumps win in 2016 here i think it has become one. This is Trumps narrowest victory out of any state he has won and it wouldnt take a lot for the state to flip in 2020. In fact i expect it to flip in 2020 abet narrowly due to some disaffected 2016 Trump voters voting democratic again do to the Democratic nominee not being a clinton (If she is the 2020 nominee then i wouldn't say that would happen).

Minnesota - With Clintons less then 2% win here i say it has become a Swing state at best, slight democratic at worse. Minnesota has voted Democratic since 1972 and proved to continue that trend in 2016 being the only one out of Michigan and Wisconsin to vote for Clinton. However trump definitely showed signs and trends here coming closer then Bush did either time in 2000 and 2004. It is trending republican yes but if 2020 is anything like it is shaping up to be it will probably vote democratic again in 2020 but after that is unknown but its democratic voting trend is coming to a end.

Maine - The closeness of Maine in 2016 was a suprise to me. I thought it would be decided 5-10% Clinton victory nevertheless a 2.9% one. Trumps gains among Rural voters and Old Industrial areas really showed here with him winning the Second Congressional District by 10% and winning 9 countys compared to 1 for Romney in 2016.  With Trump it has become a Swing state and probably will remain that way in 2020 and beyond. Congressional district wise: The second District is Lean Trump as he won by 10% here and a close 2020 would still result in trump winning here. The 1st district is lean Democratic and although has trended Democratic since the bush years looks like it is trending republican now.

Nevada - Swing State as of now but like Colorado it is showing trouble that a swing state like Nevada didn't vote for Trump while most others did. A minority problem for the GOP is especially prevalent hear out of all places. A republican could win her in 2020 but as Washoe and Clark continue trend away from Republicans it is becoming harder.

New Hampshire - Hell yes. A 0.3% and or 3000 vote Margin can easily be overcome. This is another state i was surprised by considering the closeness. It has become more democratic leaning since the Bush Years but a small win her in 2020 wouldn't be a surprise.

New Mexico - Its not 2004 anymore. It only was within 10% this year was due to Gary Johnson. If he wasn't there, Clinton would win her around where Obama 2012 got or perhaps more or less. The Hispanic population at 48% has made the state a goner for the Republicans.

North Carolina - More of a Swing state then Georgia or Arizona but still not fully there. It has become a case her where the Polls show a close race and perhaps a democratic lead but in the end the republican wins anywhere from 0.5-4%. It will however become more of one as time goes on.

Ohio - Still a Swing State though not as swingy as it used to be. Trumps 8% win here can be overcome but that would require a shift in the democratic party operation and Candidate. A 2020 Democrat will most likely see some slight trend in there favor unless the candidate is horrible in many ways but they will need to campaign there to try to win back the Sandusky or Youngstown factory workers which caused Trump to win here. Aka become Economically Populist and you can put Ohio and maybe Iowa back into Play in 2020. But if the Republican Party continues to become more "Trumpist" Democrats long term hope her is diminishing.

Pennsylannia - A state in which there was a very narrow Trump win in 2016 which can easily be turned around however it does prove Pennsylvania is a real swing state and not fools gold. (See Ohio basically)

Virginia - Nova is killing Republican chances her and Trump isnt making that any better. As with Colorado and Georgia, Growing Minority and College educated populations in the urban area and suburban areas in Nova and Southeast Virginia is making Republicans hope here more and more unlikely. It can still be won by a right republican (Say a Kasich like Republican) but if Republicans continue to do as poor as they are doing right now in Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince Williams county and dont make it up somewhere else they are done here for now.

Wisconsin - Yes.(See all Rust belt states to know Answer)

[The Govanah Jake]

How the hell is Maine a swing state ?!? It hasn't
gone Red since the Reagan/Bush 41 age?

ME-02 is a toss up district but the state overall is Likely D.

Did you miss the 2016 Election or Something? Clinton only carried Maine by 2.9%. That is not safe at all. States don't have to be won by both party's to be considered a Swing State. A swing State is a state which can be reasonably won by either the Democratic or Republican Presidential candidate. A Republican can very reasonably overcome a 2.9%. It may of been a lean Democratic state during the Obama Years but 2016 showed there is a Republican trend in Maine.

[The Govanah Jake]

Ohio - Still a Swing State though not as swingy as it used to be.

Say what? It's gone for the winner in EVERY
single election since LBJ. And before that only
one other election since 1900 (44) did Ohio
not pick the winner.

Think about that - only FDR in 44 and
John F Kennedy in '60 LOST Ohio and
WON the Presidency. That's INSANE

I'd say Ohio is the ultimate swing state and until
a loser wins the state, it's pretty swingy

Trends dont last. Trump won the state by 8% and a continued Republican trend in the Midwest will most likely end Ohio's reign as the decider of elections in favor of another state.

[The Govanah Jake]

How the hell is Maine a swing state ?!? It hasn't
gone Red since the Reagan/Bush 41 age?

ME-02 is a toss up district but the state overall is Likely D.

Did you miss the 2016 Election or Something? Clinton only carried Maine by 2.9%. That is not safe at all. States don't have to be won by both party's to be considered a Swing State. A swing State is a state which can be reasonably won by either the Democratic or Republican Presidential candidate. A Republican can very reasonably overcome a 2.9%. It may of been a lean Democratic state during the Obama Years but 2016 showed there is a Republican trend in Maine.

States that usually belong to one party can trend to another if the environment is right.

Hell, Bill Clinton won a lot of heavily Republican states (for example)

2016 was unique - You had a Dem candidate who was very unlikable and was very establishment running after 8 years of a Democratic administration and you had a GOP candidate who was anti establishment and appealed (for what reason I don't know but still) to rural lower-middle class whites. That was a unique setup that is unlikely to be duplicated. I doubt Maine is within 5 points next time - Remember a big portion of Maines population comes from the Portland area which is heavily blue in the same sphere of influence as Southern NH

Of course states do. Thats what Maine is doing right now, its trending republican. We dont know if its long term because it has only been 1 election so far (2016) but if a 2.9% democratic victory in 2016 can tell us anything; right now Maine will most likely be a swing state in 2020 and the future of the state depends on the politics after. Like Minnesota for example, It is trending republican and we dont know if its permanent but we do know that right now it is considered a swing state at the moment unless 2020 is a 2008 type election. Also who says that this is a one time occurrence and maybe a indicator of something long term
How do you know its unique? How do you know its not a long term trend?