Upshot: Why Trump’s Base of Support May Be Smaller Than It Seems

[TheSaint250]

Do you guys really want the GOP controlled by people like Classic Conservative and Clash, while people like TD and Badger leave it?

Absolutely.

Neither you nor Santender are Republicans, so who cares what you guys think anyway?  Party not to your liking?  Good, I guess it hasn't gotten that bad after all.

I would be a Republican under the right circumstances (i.e. if Buchanan-style paleoconservatives became the most dominant faction of it. Trump's victory was a step in that direction, but there is still too much neoconservative influence in the party for my taste.).

Also, since when do you have to be a member of a party to have an opinion on it?

You don't, but the more people like Santender and you that aren't actually Republicans and aren't helping to shape the ideological makeup of our primary electorate, the better chance we have of returning the party to a more sensible platform, as people like Goldwater and I are still registered Republicans who will be voting in GOP primaries.

Join the dark side. There's more room for centrists here than in the GOP.

I'd say the successes of Baker, Hogan, and Scott are evidence that there is still room for centrists in the GOP.

I'd say the vilification of Joe Manchin by the future leaders of the Democratic Party, Bernie-style politicians and supporters, is evidence that there is a closing window for centrists in the Democratic Party.

As Gen Z takes over, centrism, or at least center-rightism, will become much more prominent in the GOP.

Obviously, however, no party is perfect when it comes to their centrists.

[pbrower2a]

I think this is pretty obvious if you compare Trump's support among Conservatives with that among Republicans.

Conservatives vote 85-15 GOP so that's not a problem anyway.

And the upshot themselves said there are more white voters than people believe, and these missing whites have come for Trump and the GOP, see them always overperforming the polls after Obama left the ballot.

Conservatives will vote 85-15 Republican no matter who is the Republican nominee.

President Trump's behavior as President is so erratic as to be indefensible. He has made some wild appeals, but he has accomplished nothing. President Obama could get more done with Republican majorities of both Houses of Congress.  I'm going so far as to say that one will be shown as an example of how to be President and the other on how to not be President.

I do not expect President Trump to complete his term of office. First, he is at risk of death or extreme disability  due to his age and poor health habits. Meat burned to a crisp itself creates a risk of cancer. Obesity and a lack of exercise put him at risk of a stroke or a coronary. Senile dementia is a risk for anyone his age, although the limited vocabulary could reflect the tendency of people in the real-estate business  to speak in clichés characteristic of the business. Second, he may find the job beyond his ability -- way beyond his ability. Third, should he lose one or both Houses of Congress, then such could be a complete rebuke to him and make the Presidency impossible. He has cut and run before.

Forget impeachment. Even if twenty Republican Senators want this President  gone, Democrats still can exact some influence on the process by holding an effective veto on the Vice-President. Count on Democrats putting up much resistance to efforts to transform America into a Christian and Corporate State -- the sort of place in which labor unions, abortion, contraception, and evolution are banned, and in which the tax burden falls on the non-rich to support a government that exists largely to enforce the will of the rich.

I trust the Secret Service to be watching any threat of violence against him closely -- but it can't guard against blood clots, malignancies, or prion diseases.  Democrats running for House and Senate seats will be running against Donald Trump.

[darklordoftech]

Do you guys really want the GOP controlled by people like Classic Conservative and Clash, while people like TD and Badger leave it?

Absolutely.

Neither you nor Santender are Republicans, so who cares what you guys think anyway?  Party not to your liking?  Good, I guess it hasn't gotten that bad after all.

I would be a Republican under the right circumstances (i.e. if Buchanan-style paleoconservatives became the most dominant faction of it. Trump's victory was a step in that direction, but there is still too much neoconservative influence in the party for my taste.).

Also, since when do you have to be a member of a party to have an opinion on it?

You don't, but the more people like Santender and you that aren't actually Republicans and aren't helping to shape the ideological makeup of our primary electorate, the better chance we have of returning the party to a more sensible platform, as people like Goldwater and I are still registered Republicans who will be voting in GOP primaries.

Join the dark side. There's more room for centrists here than in the GOP.

No, there really isn't.  The GOP is in pretty much an unspoken civil war, and I intend for "my side" to decisively win out over the next few decades as Trumpism dies out.  

Good luck! Keep fighting the good fight!