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« on: July 28, 2017, 03:35:39 pm »

With Former Premier Christy Clark's announcement that she will resign as BC Liberal leader effective August 4th, the process for picking a new leader is just beginning. The party will have 30 days to set a date and rules for the leadership contest. I would presume with the incredibly volatile legislature the party will try and set a date for next spring. When Gordan Campbell resigned in November of 2010 the leadership convention took place in February 2011. Former Deputy Premier Rich Coleman will take over on an interim basis which presumably means he will not run for permanent leader.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/christy-clark-resigns-as-leader-of-b-c-liberal-party

With such a diverse coalition (Some Federal liberals and Conservatives) plus no apparent front runner their is likely to be a long list of names enter this race. I will go through them all in more detail but here are some of them below that may be contenders.

Current MLA's (Past Cabinet)
Mike de Jong- Former Finance Minister, MLA Abbotsford West (ran in 2011 finished 4th)
Mike Bernier- Former Education Minister, MLA Peace River South
Shirley Bond- Former Minister of Jobs, Tourism and Skills Training (and a number of other departments),  MLA for Prince George-Valemount
Mary Polak- Former Heath and Environment Minster, MLA for Langley

Outside Caucus non MLA's
Kevin Falcon- Former Minister of Finance/Deputy Premier and MLA for Surrey-Cloverdale (ran in 2011 finished runner up)
Dianna Watts- Former Mayor of Surrey and Conservative MP for  South Surrey—White Rock.
Joyce Murray-Parliamentary Secretary to the President of the Treasury Board and Liberal MP for Vancouver Quadra and Former BC Liberal New Westminster MLA.


The last two probably won't run but would be top contenders if they did.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 12:06:42 pm by Progressive Democrat »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2017, 03:45:45 pm »

My take


The first name being mentioned is Dianne Watts, the former Surrey mayor and presently Conservative M.P for Surrey-White Rock.

Watts was a very popular mayor but her popularity dropped somewhat from her leaving as mayor to running for M.P due to a wave of gang shootings and other crime problems in Surrey that caused a re-evaluation of her tenure as mayor, and she won her election to Parliament by a narrow margin (I think 1,600 votes.)

If she doesn't run, I think most of the attention would turn first to those top candidates who ran against Christy Clark in 2011: Kevin Falcon and George Abbott. (Mike De Jong and, I think, a couple others also ran)  Abbott has said he's done with politics and is no longer a member of the B.C Liberals (I believe I read he was also once a New Democrat) but Kevin Falcon came forward to criticize Clark for her stolen throne speech stunt.

Other than them, I would look at Mike Bernier the former Education Minister who is regarded as somebody who can bring people together.  I think his firing of the Vancouver School Board would also large help him in his run for leader.  He can portray himself as a consensus builder who also has a spine.

I would think John Rustad who received very positive grades for his handling of the B.C forest fires as the person who was named the Forests and Natural Resource Operations minister for the brief time after the Liberal election loss would also be a strong candidate.

An outsider I'd like to see but has given no indication is James Moore, the former Conservative M.P and Industry Minister who was regarded as a 'Red Tory.'

From the 'who asked you to run?' list, those who are considered to want to run but not likely to garner a lot of support are the extremely book smart but hopelessly tin eared Andrew Wilkinson and the former mayor of Vancouver Sam Sullivan.  I think there may have been one or two other Liberal M.L.As who have been mentioned as wanting to run but not likely to garner a lot of support (unless, of course, nobody who would be the frontrunners decides to run.)
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« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2017, 07:11:34 pm »

Moore left politics for family reasons. IIRC, his son has some pretty severe health problems, so I doubt he's getting back into politics.
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« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2017, 07:12:25 pm »

Here's a question for the B.Cer's. Which candidate will be the media inevitably overhype despite having poor chances with actual party members?
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« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2017, 07:14:02 pm »

Moore left politics for family reasons. IIRC, his son has some pretty severe health problems, so I doubt he's getting back into politics.

Yes, apparently he's already said he's not interested, but he was mentioned by others and asked, which I wasn't even aware of at the time I wrote that.

The problem with your comment, which I agree is the reason he left politics and isn't coming back anytime soon, is that at the same time he stepped down from office he said something like "I plan to be back soon."
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« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2017, 07:21:29 pm »

Here's a question for the B.Cer's. Which candidate will be the media inevitably overhype despite having poor chances with actual party members?

How often does that happen?  It happened in the Conservative leadership race, but where else?  Jagmeet Singh appears to be making genuine inroads in the NDP leadership race and Charlie Angus appears to be his leading rival.

That sort of happened in B.C in 1986 with both Grace McCarthy and Bud Smith in the Social Credit leadership race, but they were two of the four main candidates.

My new M.L.A, Jas Johal is getting some attention and could be hyped by the media because he was a former journalist himself, but on CKNW at least one political science professor has already said "he'd probably be better positioned in a few years."

If there is one, it might be Dianne Watts given that a number in the media are calling her the front-runner (if she runs) and given her declining popularity in Surrey a couple years ago, she may not be as strong as they think.

I think Dianne Watts would have won handily had she run for the B.C Liberal leadership in 2011 but maybe she's missed her chance (if she was ever interested in the first place.)
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« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2017, 10:34:18 pm »

Here's a question for the B.Cer's. Which candidate will be the media inevitably overhype despite having poor chances with actual party members?

How often does that happen? 

When Christy Clark ran?  (Yeah, she won; but with negligible caucus support.)

As for Watts: for all her localized issues, I think her close call had more to do with the pratfallish federal campaign at large than her own deficiencies.
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« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2017, 02:52:18 am »

Clark's resignation today certainly surprised everyone including her BC Lib caucus. Based upon a telephone interview tonight with Global BC's Keith Baldrey, Clark confided that if the GreeNDP gov't indeed lasted a couple of years that the proverbial knives would likely begin to come out from caucus. Ergo, Clark wanted to leave on her own terms after reflection. Certainly Clark, had she won the 2017 election, would have resigned and left office before the 2021 election. In reality, preems have a shelf life of 10 years at the max.

Suspect that numerous candidates will emerge, down the road, for Clark's replacement. Clark's resignation will undoubtedly change BC's political dynamic.
But, should she decide to take the jump, former Surrey mayor and current fed Con MP Dianne Watts would likely be considered the front-runner and further change BC's political dynamic.

So who is Dianne Watts and what is her electoral time-line to date?

Watts was first elected to Surrey council back in 1996. Watts later had a falling out with right-wing mayor Doug McCallum and ran as an independent mayoral candidate in the 2005 muni election. One must remember that both Watts and Doug McCallum were part of the Surrey municipal party SME at the time, before she broke ranks. Surprisingly Watts won in 2005 but faced animosity from the SME party dominated Surrey municipal council shortly thereafter. Nevertheless, Watts, also surprisingly, rekindled relationships and later brought SME Surrey councillors aboard forming a new Surrey muni party called Surrey First - which dominates Surrey municipal politics to this day.

Moreover, Watts also brought long-time centre-left councillor Judy Villeneuve (former NDP candidate) as well centre-left councillor Barinder Rasode into the Surrey First fold as well. Both had previously been associated with the Surrey NDP farm team SCE, which is now basically dead.

Watts transformed Surrey from the perception a red-neck suburban municipality into its own. Watts' legacy includes turning old north Surrey into a future vibrant downtown core - condominium and office skyscrapers are beginning to dominate the skyline.

Watts ran as mayor in 2005, 2008, and 2011 and in the latter 2 elections received 80% and 86% popular vote shares respectively. Moreover, Watts was among the finalists for the 2010 World Mayor prize and Watts was ultimately selected as "the fourth-best mayor in the world".

After the May, 2009 BC election, the BC Libs faced a debacle with the HST affair. Interestingly enough, an Angus Reid Strategies opinion poll, several months later on September 5, 2009, had this result for following question with net score results:

Quote
If Gordon Campbell were to step down, do you feel each of the following would make a good premier?

1. Dianne Watts, then Surrey Mayor +14

2. Christy Clark, then radio talk show host and former Liberal +1

3. Mike Farnworth, NDP -2

4. Mike De Jong, Lib -3

5. Gregor Robertson, Vancouver mayor -9

6. Colin Hansen, Lib -11

7. Adrian Dix, NDP -11

8. John Horgan, NDP -13

9. Carole James -13

10. Kevin Falcon, Lib -17

11. Rich Coleman, Lib -21

[link now broken]

When BC Lib preem Gordon Campbell resigned later in late 2010. Watts' name was again highly touted and bandied about in the media as a potential contender for replacement. However, many pundits suggested that Watts was not interested at the time (including myself) considering that the BC Libs were suffering internal turmoil with the HST fiasco and Watts prized her mayoral position and wanted to complete her ambitions in Surrey with another 3-year term.

On November 5, 2010, Ipsos Reid released the poll results of "potential" BC Lib contenders with public net positive/net negative scores:

1. Dianne Watts +30
2. Carole Taylor +21
...
5. Christy Clark -14



On or about December 10, 2010, Watts confirmed, in an exclusive interview, that she had no interest in the leadership of the BC Libs at the time. 3 interesting matters stand out from that interview though:

1. The Global BC TV journalist interviewing was Jas Johal, who was elected in the 2017 election in Richmond-Queensborough;

2. Reference therein to a then Ipsos poll that 65% of BCers wanted Watts to run for the BC Lib leadership;

3. Watts stating that she would have endorsed former BC Liberal finance minister Carole Taylor in the BC Lib leadership race. That's key because Carole Taylor was a long-time federal Liberal and her now deceased spouse was Art Phillips, former Vancouver Centre Liberal MP. Ergo, Watts has always been considered a red tory/blue liberal on the political spectrum.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_jFML49WLM

Watts has always been very popular, non-devisive, intelligent and well-respected. Certainly Carole Taylor could also be categorized in that same mold. To boot, both could be considered as "Tier 1" type candidates and aside from those two, cannot see any other similar Tier 1 leadership candidates, of any political stripe, going back ~60 years.

Watts later won mayoral re-election in November, 2011 and finished her Surrey mayoral term in November, 2014. At the outset, Watts stated that she would only run 3 terms for mayor and she thus completed same.

In 2015, both the federal Liberals and federal Cons courted Watts to run under their banner for the October, 2015 election in the new riding of South Surrey-White Rock after federal redistribution. That area has always had centre-right demographics and elected PCs, Reform, Canadian Alliance, and Con MPs. Without checking, I suspect that the last time that this area was majority fed Lib territory was back in 1968 during original Trudeau-mania.

Harper came out to BC numerous times to court Watts and finally succeeded in bagging her as a candidate in SS-WR with Watts also likely expecting to be a fed Con cabinet minister in a re-elected Con gov't. However, on e-day October, 2015, the anti-Harper Con tide, pro-JT Liberal tide was so strong, Watts almost lost - she won by a 2.5% margin over her fed Liberal rival Judy Higginbothan, who was also a former Surrey councillor between 1983 and 2008 - also a centre-right "blue" Liberal. Had Watts not been the Con candidate here in 2015, undoubtedly the fed Liberals would have bagged another seat.

Since then, Watts has been a Con opposition MP, with a critic role, but essentially has a low profile with almost zero media exposure in BC. Watts will likely continue in that same role after the 2019 fed election. 5 - 6 hour flights between the west coast and Ottawa are also apparently taking a toll on Watts.

Back in April, 2017 of this year, Watts had an interview with an obscure media outlet known as "Surrey604" and some of her statements re:Ottawa stood out thereto:

Quote
“The commute is very trying because you are taking red eye flights and you get in at 2:00 AM in the morning, which because of the time change makes the hours extraordinarily long. You often don’t get home for dinner until 9:30 – 10 o’clock at night, and this on a regular basis.

There isn’t a lot of down time; so that is a challenge especially with family.

I don’t know what the future holds. Right now, I am going back and forth to Ottawa, I have been elected for a four year term and we will see what happens at that junction.”

http://surrey604.com/2017/04/23/dianne-watts-on-the-national-stage/

On her social media Twitter feed (whomever is actually paying attention to same these days) Watts has always been fed politics. But when the GreeNDP accord was finalized on May 30, 2017 Watts, out of the norm, tweeted as follows:

Quote
Dianne Watts MP‏
Verified account
@DianneLWatts  May 30

It's still a back room deal that the voters were not engaged in !

Thereafter, a weekly BC political broadcast by Shaw-TV, hosted by Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer had Province political columnist Mike Smyth on as a guest. The question of Clark's leadership came up and Mike Smyth stated that he had spoken with many in the BC Liberal Party and "the name Dianne Watts keeps coming up and I hear that she may be interested this time."

Moreover, Smyth stated - para-phrasing that "Watts is one candidate that the BC NDP fears". Was surprised at his statements at the time. I actually expected Clark to be around for at least another year.

And then today's announcement. Have now also seen, on social media, Dianne Watts name bandied about by both fed Liberal voters and fed Con voters.

And heard Province political columnist Mike Smyth on CKNW today again mentioning Dianne Watts name exclusively, which Global BC news is also carrying:

Quote
According to Smyth ...one name keeps popping up, and that is Conservative MP Dianne Watts.

“I have had a lot of interest in it though; her name does come up, and that’s one name that’ll have the NDP shaking in their boots, I think if she was to come in, because she was a very popular mayor when she was the mayor of Surrey.”

http://globalnews.ca/news/3633706/who-will-be-the-next-leader-of-the-bc-liberals/

Still very early days. But if Watts actually decides to enter the race... I would make Watts the odds-on-favourite on winning same.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2017, 03:24:17 pm by Lotuslander »Logged
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« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2017, 04:20:24 am »

Here's a question for the B.Cer's. Which candidate will be the media inevitably overhype despite having poor chances with actual party members?

How often does that happen? 

When Christy Clark ran?  (Yeah, she won; but with negligible caucus support.)

As for Watts: for all her localized issues, I think her close call had more to do with the pratfallish federal campaign at large than her own deficiencies.

Yeah, the Tory vote in her seat only declined by about 8%, which was pretty close to the national average, and way better than normal for B.C. The Tories were taking 15-25% declines in most of  Greater Vancouver. Watts close result seems more due to the Liberals consolidating the ABC vote than anything else.
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« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2017, 05:28:35 am »

Here's a question for the B.Cer's. Which candidate will be the media inevitably overhype despite having poor chances with actual party members?

How often does that happen?  

When Christy Clark ran?  (Yeah, she won; but with negligible caucus support.)

As for Watts: for all her localized issues, I think her close call had more to do with the pratfallish federal campaign at large than her own deficiencies.

Yeah, the Tory vote in her seat only declined by about 8%, which was pretty close to the national average, and way better than normal for B.C. The Tories were taking 15-25% declines in most of  Greater Vancouver. Watts close result seems more due to the Liberals consolidating the ABC vote than anything else.

Maybe, but for a mayor who was last reelected with 85% of the vote and whose city council (and school board) slate dominated in the polls in 2011 and 2014 I would have expected a bigger win, something at least along the lines of what Elsie Wayne did in Saint John in 1993.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_municipal_elections,_2014#Surrey_City_Council_election

I'm certainly not claiming that she isn't still popular, but if there is additional CKNW coverage available, there was some discussion with one of the hosts of how much her popularity may not be in Surrey what it once was.  In addition to crime - and specifically the gang violence (which may have settled down since), there has also been concern with the pace of development in Surrey and one person on the program said they've heard from a number of people in Surrey who said they were former supporters of Dianne Watts that 'these things started while she was mayor.'
« Last Edit: July 29, 2017, 05:30:08 am by Adam T »Logged


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« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2017, 06:19:41 am »

Apparently Vancouver Province political columnist Mike Smyth said that he thinks 'the NDP is shaking in their boots at the prospect of a Dianne Watts led B.C Liberal Party.'

I highly doubt that. I think, unlike him, the NDP is sophisticated enough to know that expected political juggernauts often don't work out.  The NDP should know that because they were the juggernaut that didn't work out in 2013.

Mike Smyth is such a simpleton that whenever I hear him I'm reminded of this brilliant take-down that he received from Bill Tieleman.

It went something like this:

Smyth "Yes, but Bill, isn't it a fact that teachers are well paid given that they work six hours a day for 10 months a year."

Tieleman: "Come on Mike,you know that isn't true.  Every teacher I know puts in several hours after class and they work throughout August preparing for the school year ahead.

Smyth: "They're paid for their job of working in the classroom."

Tieleman: "So, Mike, it takes you what, about half an hour a day to write up your column?"

Smyth: "It takes me a great deal of time to get the information to write up the column."

Tieleman: "Yes, Mike, but you're paid for the job of writing up your column and that takes you, I'd guess, a half an hour a day. So, I guess you should earn about $25 a day."

Smyth: "Thanks for being on the show Bill."

What was even more amusing than is possible to know from reading this is that when Tieleman asked Smyth how long it took him to write up his column each day, Smyth was completely oblivious at what Tieleman was driving at.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2017, 06:25:09 am by Adam T »Logged


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« Reply #11 on: July 29, 2017, 05:37:35 pm »

Maybe, but for a mayor who was last reelected with 85% of the vote and whose city council (and school board) slate dominated in the polls in 2011 and 2014 I would have expected a bigger win, something at least along the lines of what Elsie Wayne did in Saint John in 1993.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_municipal_elections,_2014#Surrey_City_Council_election



 Though keep in mind (and this fact's seldom if ever cited), Elsie was boosted by a Liberal split (the 1988 fed Grit candidate ran and did quite well as an independent in 1993).  Also, the PC brand was still relatively strong in and of itself in the Maritimes, and there was a bit of a "Celtic fringe" isolation factor akin to that which sustained the Liberal brand in the UK's extremities through the post-WWII years.  By comparison, whatever her municipal popularity, I doubt that a Dianne Watts running for the PCs in Surrey in 1993 would have succeeded; at best, she might have managed a quarter of the vote a la Kim Campbell.

Quote
I'm certainly not claiming that she isn't still popular, but if there is additional CKNW coverage available, there was some discussion with one of the hosts of how much her popularity may not be in Surrey what it once was.  In addition to crime - and specifically the gang violence (which may have settled down since), there has also been concern with the pace of development in Surrey and one person on the program said they've heard from a number of people in Surrey who said they were former supporters of Dianne Watts that 'these things started while she was mayor.'

However, remember that Surrey's a big place encompassing several federal and provincial ridings--and the south part which Watts represents also happens to be the whitest and most "removed" from the heart of the gang-violence et al problem; it's really more of a "Greater White Rock" constituency with a touch of Fraser Valley Bible Belt-ism around the edges. Thus if her support remains cushioned anywhere, it's here.

And that she still came close to losing isn't just due to Justinmania; the Grits have always had above-average "moderate retiree" strength in White Rock.
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« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2017, 06:56:28 pm »

Maybe, but for a mayor who was last reelected with 85% of the vote and whose city council (and school board) slate dominated in the polls in 2011 and 2014 I would have expected a bigger win, something at least along the lines of what Elsie Wayne did in Saint John in 1993.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_municipal_elections,_2014#Surrey_City_Council_election



 Though keep in mind (and this fact's seldom if ever cited), Elsie was boosted by a Liberal split (the 1988 fed Grit candidate ran and did quite well as an independent in 1993).  Also, the PC brand was still relatively strong in and of itself in the Maritimes, and there was a bit of a "Celtic fringe" isolation factor akin to that which sustained the Liberal brand in the UK's extremities through the post-WWII years.  By comparison, whatever her municipal popularity, I doubt that a Dianne Watts running for the PCs in Surrey in 1993 would have succeeded; at best, she might have managed a quarter of the vote a la Kim Campbell.

Quote
I'm certainly not claiming that she isn't still popular, but if there is additional CKNW coverage available, there was some discussion with one of the hosts of how much her popularity may not be in Surrey what it once was.  In addition to crime - and specifically the gang violence (which may have settled down since), there has also been concern with the pace of development in Surrey and one person on the program said they've heard from a number of people in Surrey who said they were former supporters of Dianne Watts that 'these things started while she was mayor.'

However, remember that Surrey's a big place encompassing several federal and provincial ridings--and the south part which Watts represents also happens to be the whitest and most "removed" from the heart of the gang-violence et al problem; it's really more of a "Greater White Rock" constituency with a touch of Fraser Valley Bible Belt-ism around the edges. Thus if her support remains cushioned anywhere, it's here.

And that she still came close to losing isn't just due to Justinmania; the Grits have always had above-average "moderate retiree" strength in White Rock.

I was not aware of that myself with Elsie Wayne. 
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« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2017, 09:48:57 pm »

Seeing those council results in Surrey makes me very disappointed that there is no ward system there. Surrey is a very polarized city, and having one party hold every single seat in the city is just awful.
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« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2017, 11:44:37 pm »

Seeing those council results in Surrey makes me very disappointed that there is no ward system there. Surrey is a very polarized city, and having one party hold every single seat in the city is just awful.

How do you get that?
Those results don't break down by area.  I think Surrey First won virtually every poll, though obviously some were closer than others.
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« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2017, 05:55:04 am »

Maybe, but for a mayor who was last reelected with 85% of the vote and whose city council (and school board) slate dominated in the polls in 2011 and 2014 I would have expected a bigger win, something at least along the lines of what Elsie Wayne did in Saint John in 1993.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_municipal_elections,_2014#Surrey_City_Council_election



 Though keep in mind (and this fact's seldom if ever cited), Elsie was boosted by a Liberal split (the 1988 fed Grit candidate ran and did quite well as an independent in 1993).  Also, the PC brand was still relatively strong in and of itself in the Maritimes, and there was a bit of a "Celtic fringe" isolation factor akin to that which sustained the Liberal brand in the UK's extremities through the post-WWII years.  By comparison, whatever her municipal popularity, I doubt that a Dianne Watts running for the PCs in Surrey in 1993 would have succeeded; at best, she might have managed a quarter of the vote a la Kim Campbell.

Quote
I'm certainly not claiming that she isn't still popular, but if there is additional CKNW coverage available, there was some discussion with one of the hosts of how much her popularity may not be in Surrey what it once was.  In addition to crime - and specifically the gang violence (which may have settled down since), there has also been concern with the pace of development in Surrey and one person on the program said they've heard from a number of people in Surrey who said they were former supporters of Dianne Watts that 'these things started while she was mayor.'

However, remember that Surrey's a big place encompassing several federal and provincial ridings--and the south part which Watts represents also happens to be the whitest and most "removed" from the heart of the gang-violence et al problem; it's really more of a "Greater White Rock" constituency with a touch of Fraser Valley Bible Belt-ism around the edges. Thus if her support remains cushioned anywhere, it's here.

And that she still came close to losing isn't just due to Justinmania; the Grits have always had above-average "moderate retiree" strength in White Rock.

I was not aware of that myself with Elsie Wayne. 

It's a neat little quirk of history. The Liberal + Indy vote actually was greater than Elsie's, although only by a couple hundred votes. The Tories could have salvaged a few more seats if the Liberals had any competition to their left in Atlantic Canada. Reform benefited from this a bit out West.

For example, here are the top Tory results by vote share in 1993:
1) Jean Charest, Sherbrooke, 52.4%
2) Bernard Valcourt, Madawaska-Victoria, 45.7%
3) Elsie Wayne, Saint John, 43.3%
4) Ross Reid, St. John's East, 42.1%
5) Greg Thompson, Carleton-Charlotte, 40.6%

Pulling 40% in a few Atlantic Canadian seats (and 30% in several more) is quite impressive given the Tories total collapse, and in most elections would be enough to retain said seats. I don't think anyone would have been able to pull a comparable result for the Tories in suburban Vancouver in 1993.
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« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2017, 10:12:25 am »

Seeing those council results in Surrey makes me very disappointed that there is no ward system there. Surrey is a very polarized city, and having one party hold every single seat in the city is just awful.

How do you get that?
Those results don't break down by area.  I think Surrey First won virtually every poll, though obviously some were closer than others.

I suppose that's possible, but with a ward system, I think Surrey would quickly develop a two party system, instead of being ruled by a mushy centre-right party that holds all of the seats.
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« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2017, 11:51:49 am »

Seeing those council results in Surrey makes me very disappointed that there is no ward system there. Surrey is a very polarized city, and having one party hold every single seat in the city is just awful.

How do you get that?
Those results don't break down by area.  I think Surrey First won virtually every poll, though obviously some were closer than others.

I suppose that's possible, but with a ward system, I think Surrey would quickly develop a two party system, instead of being ruled by a mushy centre-right party that holds all of the seats.

Although Surrey Mayor Linda Heppner doesn't seem to be doing as badly as she did in her first year or so in office as mayor when I thought she was just hopeless, I would be very surprised if Surrey First won every council seat in 2018.
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« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2017, 08:38:14 am »

Seeing those council results in Surrey makes me very disappointed that there is no ward system there. Surrey is a very polarized city, and having one party hold every single seat in the city is just awful.

How do you get that?
Those results don't break down by area.  I think Surrey First won virtually every poll, though obviously some were closer than others.

I suppose that's possible, but with a ward system, I think Surrey would quickly develop a two party system, instead of being ruled by a mushy centre-right party that holds all of the seats.

Although Surrey Mayor Linda Heppner doesn't seem to be doing as badly as she did in her first year or so in office as mayor when I thought she was just hopeless, I would be very surprised if Surrey First won every council seat in 2018.

Well, they could get 51% of the vote and still win all 8 seats because of the at-large voting system, so I'm not holding my breath.
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2017, 03:54:20 pm »

I would say the possibilities are as shown below

Andrew Wilkinson - From Lower Mainland where the party needs to win back lost seats and fairly competent minister, but may be seen as too closely tied to the former Clark government

Sam Sullivan - Also from Vancouver, former mayor seems reasonably likeable, but his term as mayor was less than stellar

Jas Johal - Visible minority which could help them in winning back seats in Surrey, media personality (and as we know with Justin Trudeau image matters a lot), from Lower Mainland, but lacks the experience so maybe needs to grow a bit more in his role as MLA before taking the plunge.

Kevin Falcon - Has lots of experience and comes from Surrey where the party needs to do better, but being a federal Conservative could limit his ability to gain votes as its mostly federal liberal not federal conservative votes the party needs to do better amongst.  Also too tied to the Campbell administration and I think the party would be better to have someone not too closely tied to either.

Diane Watts - Very popular mayor of Surrey which is a place the BC Liberals needs to gain.  Fairly moderate and also female.  Considering the Tories aren't likely to win in 2019 (or at least I think the BC Liberals have a much better chance at winning the next provincial than federal Tories winning the federal) she might want to return to provincial politics where her chances of being in government in the next five years are better.  That being said Harper was pretty hated in BC and anyone who ran under his banner will have that somewhat weighing them down.

James Moore - A competent cabinet minister federally and well liked in his riding.  Could use this as a stepping stone for a later federal run.  Being a cabinet minister not just candidate for the Harper government though will be his biggest albatross.  Besides with the issues with one of his daughters not sure he wants to run.

George Abbott - A moderate consensus oriented one so could appeal to those who found the party a bit too much of a turnoff.  He does however come from the Interior where the party is already strong not the Lower Mainland where it needs to gain.  Also said he has left politics for good.

Peter Milhobar - Successful mayor of Kamloops and up until recently Kamloops was a bellwether city that whomever won there won provincewide.  Low profile and may have weaknesses we do not know about.

Todd Stone - A strong cabinet minister, but probably too closely tied to the Clark government

Shirley Bond - An experienced cabinet minister and well respected amongst her colleagues.  Her main disadvantage is too tied to past administrations.

Some possible dark horses

Lois Jackson (mayor of Delta), Ellis Ross (First Nations leader who won in a traditional NDP riding), Mike de Jong.  Actually as a BC Liberal supporter myself I think Ellis Ross would be a very interesting one as First Nations and good at negotiations.
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« Reply #20 on: August 18, 2017, 12:59:29 pm »

Former Finance Minister and Deputy Premier Kevin Falcon not interested in leadership bid.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-liberals-new-leader-should-be-an-outsider-former-politician-says/article35918468/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&
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« Reply #21 on: August 18, 2017, 08:17:17 pm »


That is probably a good thing as I think the party should probably choose someone not too heavily tied to the past.  Also he doesn't have a seat meaning someone would have to step aside giving the NDP-Greens a leg up.  I do though wonder why Clark didn't wait until the next leader was chosen as she is in a very safe riding so I thought it would have made more sense for her to go then and if the new leader didn't have a seat they would run there.
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« Reply #22 on: August 22, 2017, 08:04:04 pm »

It's Insights West... and it's also still the dog days of summer... but their poll today on potential BC Lib leadership candidates still corroborates my above post about Dianne Watts...

Quote
Watts is the only prospective leader to clearly outperform the governing BC NDP (30% to 25% in favour of the BC Liberals, or 44% to 37% when undecided voters are removed).

“When British Columbians ponder the possibility of Dianne Watts as leader of the BC Liberals, the party’s fortunes change dramatically when compared with other possible contenders,” says Mario Canseco, Vice President, Public Affairs, at Insights West. “The Watts-led BC Liberals would enjoy a significantly higher level of support from voters aged 55 and over and residents of the Lower Mainland.”

https://insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NextBCL_Tables.pdf
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« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2017, 11:18:15 pm »

It's Insights West... and it's also still the dog days of summer... but their poll today on potential BC Lib leadership candidates still corroborates my above post about Dianne Watts...

Quote
Watts is the only prospective leader to clearly outperform the governing BC NDP (30% to 25% in favour of the BC Liberals, or 44% to 37% when undecided voters are removed).

“When British Columbians ponder the possibility of Dianne Watts as leader of the BC Liberals, the party’s fortunes change dramatically when compared with other possible contenders,” says Mario Canseco, Vice President, Public Affairs, at Insights West. “The Watts-led BC Liberals would enjoy a significantly higher level of support from voters aged 55 and over and residents of the Lower Mainland.”

https://insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NextBCL_Tables.pdf

Interesting although at this point I think whom is best or not is more name recognition.  If the NDP does a good job they will win no matter what, while if they do a lousy job all that will matter is how big a majority the BC Liberals get.  Diane Watts being from Surrey where she was a popular mayor helps in winning back seats there, but being a federal Conservative is somewhat a negative as Harper was quite disliked in BC and I suspect Scheer who is very similar to Harper will be too.  At the same time she was never a member of the cabinet and always more moderate than most of her party so not the same baggage as say if James Moore was chosen.  Also not being a member of either the Clark or Campbell government is an asset.  Interestingly enough her seat probably would have gone Liberal federally if not for her (yes it usually goes Conservative no matter what but Harper was so hated in BC by 2015 that you saw Liberals winning many ridings they wouldn't normally win) and likewise there will be a lot of pressure from caucus not to resign until the Tories rebound in BC as right now I suspect the Liberals would win a by-election in her riding if she vacates it.  Also without a provincial seat that could mean someone else has to stand down unless she jumps in before Kelowna West is filled thus giving the NDP more breathing room to pass legislation thus that might be the other reason they want someone already in caucus so they don't give up a seat for 6 months.
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« Reply #24 on: August 31, 2017, 12:07:48 pm »

Leadership election will take place on February 3rd.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-liberals-open-leadership-race-set-rules
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