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Author Topic: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread  (Read 3532 times)
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« Reply #25 on: January 03, 2018, 06:19:44 pm »

Bump

Leadership election will take place one month from today

Anyway below our the candidates and a small blurb on their policies I got off of Wikipedia.

Mike de Jong-Former Finance Minster and MLA for Abbotsford West

Quote
Proposes an all-day kindergarten program for four-year-olds, financial incentives for local governments who can complete zoning and permitting processes related to 50 residential units or fewer within 10 months, relocating government offices related to forest and lands ministry to Prince George.


Michael Lee-MLA for Vancouver-Langara

Quote
Proposes to eliminate LNG tax, complete the Site C dam, build rapid transit beneath the Broadway Corridor to UBC, phase out the use of disposable plastic grocery bags, increase the deposit on all beverage containers, create an enhanced internship tax credit, and increase funding and access to legal aid.

Todd Stone-Former Transportation Minster and MLA for Kamloops-South Thompson

Quote
Proposes to eliminate the hospital capital tax, create an agricultural electricity rate, double the Rural Dividend Fund, expand the teaching of coding in elementary and high school, delivering government programs and services online, increasing support to Buy Local campaigns and agricultural fairs, expanding trade offices in Asia, provide support for an agriplex in the Comox Valley.

Sam Sullivan-Former Mayor of Vancouver and MLA for Vancouver-False Creek
Quote
Proposes to privatize the Liquor Distribution Branch and elements of the health care system, introduce charter schools to BC, create a modified sales tax to replace the provincial sales tax

Dianne Watts-Former Mayor of Surrey and Former MP for  South SurreyWhite Rock
Quote
Proposes to direct tax revenue from cannabis to municipalities, make BC Ferries an extension of the highway system and apply the senior's fare on BC Ferries to all sailings.[

Andrew Wilkinson-Former Attorney General and MLA for  Vancouver-Quilchena
Quote
Proposes to privatize government-owned liquor stores, abolish the small business income tax for family businesses, create an office to attract American investment to BC, and create a northern premier and cabinet office in Prince George with video-conferencing services to representatives in Victoria.

--------------
So far it seems Andrew Wilkinson has the most establishment support followed closely by Todd Stone and Mike de Jong. However as Christy Clark's victory in 2011 showed endorsements do not mean everything when it comes to predicting who is going to win a leadership election. For now I would say Watts is still the slight favorite with de Jong, Stone and Wilkinson following close behind.

Anyway who do you all prefer/think is going to win?

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« Reply #26 on: January 03, 2018, 07:08:46 pm »

I won't be Sam Sullivan or Michael Lee, but between the other four my thoughts are:

Mike de Jong - Status quo relatively experienced and inoffensive to most although doubt he will come in first on the first ballot but could pick up enough second choices to put him over the top.

Todd Stone - Definitely has a decent chance, especially considering he should do well in the interior, but I wouldn't go as far as to call him the frontrunner.

Diane Watts - She has the most name recognition and despite lack of endorsements definitely could win.  Her problem is lack of policy and I've heard has performed quite poorly in the debates so while she was the frontrunner at the beginning, now I think she has fallen back a bit but not out of it.

Andrew Wilkinson - If I had to pick a frontrunner, I would pick him, but still has chances of winning are probably under 50% although higher than the others.

As for myself, I am still undecided although it won't be Sam Sullivan (he is my MLA and has some good ideas, but not the best choice overall).  My plan is to read each of their platforms carefully and whichever I think is the best overall I will choose.
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« Reply #27 on: January 03, 2018, 08:35:08 pm »

A leadership election in Canada that doesn't take three years to complete? What is this insanity?
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« Reply #28 on: January 03, 2018, 08:45:27 pm »

A leadership election in Canada that doesn't take three years to complete? What is this insanity?

BC has a minority government too so they need to have a leader sooner in case the government falls.  Generally leadership races when there is a majority take longer as there is no urgency and better to do it right whereas when a minority government they are quicker just in case the government falls sooner than expected.
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« Reply #29 on: January 03, 2018, 10:26:17 pm »

I won't be Sam Sullivan or Michael Lee, but between the other four my thoughts are:

Mike de Jong - Status quo relatively experienced and inoffensive to most although doubt he will come in first on the first ballot but could pick up enough second choices to put him over the top.

Todd Stone - Definitely has a decent chance, especially considering he should do well in the interior, but I wouldn't go as far as to call him the frontrunner.

Diane Watts - She has the most name recognition and despite lack of endorsements definitely could win.  Her problem is lack of policy and I've heard has performed quite poorly in the debates so while she was the frontrunner at the beginning, now I think she has fallen back a bit but not out of it.

Andrew Wilkinson - If I had to pick a frontrunner, I would pick him, but still has chances of winning are probably under 50% although higher than the others.

As for myself, I am still undecided although it won't be Sam Sullivan (he is my MLA and has some good ideas, but not the best choice overall).  My plan is to read each of their platforms carefully and whichever I think is the best overall I will choose.


Other than the media is naturally more focused on the government than the opposition, I have no idea how de Jong survived the money laundering at the B.C Casinos.  Apparently the government knew about it and intentionally did nothing.  de Jong was the Minister responsible.  I would assume the other leadership candidates will hammer de Jong over this for the next month.

If de Jong were still the Minister, I can't see how we wouldn't have had to resign over this,
all though that sort of thing rarely happens anymore.

As to the others:

Andrew Wilkinson is hopeless.  Like Chris Alexander and Bill Morneau, he is a highly intelligent person completely lacking common sense. 

Todd Stone, I think he should delete, delete, delete his candidacy.  He's probably not the worst guy in the world, but he was a fairly major player in Christy Clark's 'war on Metro Vancouver.'
« Last Edit: January 03, 2018, 10:40:15 pm by 136or142 »Logged



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« Reply #30 on: January 05, 2018, 05:01:19 pm »

A leadership election in Canada that doesn't take three years to complete? What is this insanity?

Well, it is only a provincial party we're talking about.
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« Reply #31 on: January 06, 2018, 12:30:22 am »

A leadership election in Canada that doesn't take three years to complete? What is this insanity?

Well, it is only a provincial party we're talking about.

*And*, a provincial party that could still make it to power in advance of a scheduled election date, due to the nature of the coalition government presently in charge.  (Remember: the BCGrits alone still have a plurality of members.)
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« Reply #32 on: January 22, 2018, 11:37:16 pm »

Mainstreet has Dianne Watts ahead with 29.9% amongst decided and leaning BC Liberal voters. Other candidates as follows:

Andrew Wilkinson - 21.3%
Todd Stone - 19.6%
Mike de Jong - 16.3%
Michael Lee - 10.5%
Sam Sullivan - 2.4%
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« Reply #33 on: January 23, 2018, 12:13:36 am »

What do you think is the magic number that Watts needs to hit in the first ballot to win the leadership election? Maxime Bernie got 29% last year and barely lost.
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« Reply #34 on: January 23, 2018, 02:41:18 am »

Those are general poll numbers amongst the general population not members.  Watts is the most popular amongst the general public whereas Wilkinson and De Jong maybe less so with the general public but far more amongst the committed members.  Todd Stone cannot be ruled out and Michael Lee does well amongst younger voters and signed up many new ones.  Actually I expect this to take at least three ballots and the only prediction I will make is Sam Sullivan is knocked off after the first ballot.
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« Reply #35 on: January 23, 2018, 09:22:27 am »

Those are general poll numbers amongst the general population not members.  Watts is the most popular amongst the general public whereas Wilkinson and De Jong maybe less so with the general public but far more amongst the committed members.  Todd Stone cannot be ruled out and Michael Lee does well amongst younger voters and signed up many new ones.  Actually I expect this to take at least three ballots and the only prediction I will make is Sam Sullivan is knocked off after the first ballot.

Watts is at 30% amongst the Liberal Party Leadership electorate, not the population at large. It doesnt say anything about her leading amongst the general population, just the leadership electorate.
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« Reply #36 on: January 23, 2018, 09:48:38 pm »

Those are general poll numbers amongst the general population not members.  Watts is the most popular amongst the general public whereas Wilkinson and De Jong maybe less so with the general public but far more amongst the committed members.  Todd Stone cannot be ruled out and Michael Lee does well amongst younger voters and signed up many new ones.  Actually I expect this to take at least three ballots and the only prediction I will make is Sam Sullivan is knocked off after the first ballot.

Watts is at 30% amongst the Liberal Party Leadership electorate, not the population at large. It doesnt say anything about her leading amongst the general population, just the leadership electorate.

It is amongst BC Liberal supporters but not necessarily members.  I would ignore polls here for a few reasons.

1.  It is only members that matter and accurately surveying them is tough never mind typically only 1/3 to 1/2 of members vote so tough to figure out who will and won't.

2.  This will go to multiple ballots so trying to work out all the possible outcomes and everybody's second, third, and fourth choice is very challenging.  The person who comes in first on the first ballot won't necessarily win, in fact the third place candidate could quite possibly end up winning if he or she gets a lot of second choices.

3.  Each riding is worth 100 points so overall support is irrelevant, so winning 60% in a riding with only 10 members has the same impact as that in one with 10,000 members even though the former is 6 votes the latter is 6,000 votes.  Membership numbers vary greatly between ridings so doing well in the ridings with few members is a lot more efficient than doing well in those with a lot of members.

If it were a one member one vote and only two candidates I might take the polls half seriously, but due to the way it works, I ignore them.  In the case of the Saskatchewan NDP, I agree Ryan Mieli will likely be the next leader but for the Saskatchewan Party and BC Liberals, I would not put too much stock into those.
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« Reply #37 on: January 24, 2018, 06:23:57 am »

I can't remember if I posted something like this for the Federal Conservative leadership race. I know I predicted Maxime Bernier would narrowly defeat Erin O'Toole.  I'm pretty sure I read that O'Toole spoke better French than Andrew Scheer which I thought would push O'Toole ahead of Andrew Scheer.

1st Ballot
1.Dianne Watts, 28%
2.Mike de Jong, 19%
3.Todd Stone, 19%
4.Andrew Wilkinson, 17%
5.Michael Lee, 14%
6.Sam Sullivan, 2%

Assuming only Sullivan is dropped on the second ballot, skip that ballot.

3rd ballot
1.Dianne Watts, 36%
2.Todd Stone, 22%
3.Mike de Jong, 22%
4.Andrew Wilkinson, 20%

4th ballot
1.Dianne Watts, 41%
2.Mike de Jong, 34%
3.Todd Stone, 25%

5th ballot
1.Dianne Watts, 52%
2.Mike de Jong, 48%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On the first ballot I predict the 3 MLAs from Vancouver to get 50% of the points but with Dianne Watts to win narrowly in Vancouver due to the Vancouver MLAs splitting the vote. (I predict Sullivan will be a fairly distant third, so it's mainly Vancouver MLAs Wilkinson and Lee splitting the points.)

In the Vancouver suburbs, I predict Michael Lee will come in first, with Dianne Watts in second and Wilkinson to be a distant third.

In the three regions with local MLAs, I predict they'll win their regions.
In the city of Surrey I predict Watts to get just over half the points.

In the Fraser Valley, I predict deJong will get about half the points.

In the Southern Interior, I predict Todd Stone will get just under half the points.

In the North, Center and Coast, I predict Todd Stone will get the most points but that Dianne Watts and Andrew Wilkinson will also make a strong showing.

In Southern Vancouver Island, I predict that Wilkinson and de Jong will split the ex 'government insider vote' and Dianne Watts will sneak up the middle.

In Northern Vancouver Island I predict a very similar showing to the result in the North, Center and Coast.

For the 3rd ballot, I predict a good deal of Lee's support will go to Dianne Watts. For what it's worth, both of them are 'red Tories' but, more importantly, both of them are the newcomers.

Andrew Wilkinson's growth potential is limited because he's a shmuck.

For the 4th ballot, I don't put a lot of stock in the deal between Wilkinson and de Jong.  Unlike at a delegated convention, there is no way for the backers of the leading candidate to talk up the delegates of the candidate who just endorsed the leading candidate and there is no group dynamic effect.

However, as I wrote above, I do think there are obvious similarities in de Jong and Wilkinson in that they are both essentially Liberal Party insiders.  de Jong as one of the leading Ministers for the life of the B.C Liberal government, and Wilkinson as a former Party President (or Executive Director, whatever position he had.)

I also think that Todd Stone's growth potential is limited in the Greater Vancouver region (which does after all account for 48 of the 87 B.C ridings) because of the role he played (along with Peter Fassbender) in Christy Clark's 'war on Greater Vancouver.'  (I came up with that phrase, but I'm sure many people in the Greater Vancouver region, including many B.C Liberals, would agree with it.) I also think Todd Stone's growth potential is limited because he's a shmuck.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Although it's possible whoever wins could grow into the job, from what I've seen and read the candidates in this race are all pretty poor and none of them are obvious future Premiers.  If the B.C NDP loses the next election, I think it will be, as it often is for them, that they've defeated themselves.

I think de Jong is clearly the most credible future Premier at this point, but he carries 25 years of accumulated baggage.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2018, 10:47:55 pm by 136or142 »Logged



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« Reply #38 on: January 31, 2018, 04:35:22 pm »

Voting is set to start tomorrow.  With the ICBC story and some other negative commentary, I expect Todd Stone to start sinking like his name.

1st ballot
Dianne Watts 32%
Mike de Jong 21%
Todd Stone 16%
Andrew Wilkinson 16%
Michael Lee 13%
Sam Sullivan 2%

3rd ballot
Dianne Watts 40%
Mike de Jong 25%
Andrew Wilkinson 19%
Todd Stone 16%

4th ballot
Dianne Watts 44%
Mike de Jong 31%
Andrew Wilkinson 25%

5th ballot
Dianne Watts 53%
Mike de Jong 47%
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« Reply #39 on: January 31, 2018, 04:54:55 pm »

As a side note, I'd like it if they started the first ballot by announcing 'and the winner is La La Land."
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« Reply #40 on: January 31, 2018, 11:50:06 pm »

I want Watts, who's actually competent
But seriously how's the vote going now
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« Reply #41 on: February 01, 2018, 12:08:00 am »

I want Watts, who's actually competent
But seriously how's the vote going now

Hello, it starts tomorrow and we won't find out until it closes on February 3rd.
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« Reply #42 on: February 01, 2018, 12:13:47 am »

Mileslunn who do you believe would be the most electable of the six. If I had to guess I would say Lee do to his more centrist positions. I wonder if Watts might alienate some of the federal liberals that have voted  BC Liberal in the past because of her connections to the Conservative party. De Jong is very experienced but may be too close to the past BC Liberal government.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2018, 12:15:32 am by Former Game Moderator 1184AZ »Logged

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« Reply #43 on: February 01, 2018, 12:18:57 am »

Mileslunn who do you believe would be the most electable of the six. If I had to guess I would say Lee do to his more centrist positions. I wonder if Watts might alienate some of the federal liberals that have voted  BC Liberal in the past because of her connections to the Conservative party. De Jong is very experienced but may be too close to the past BC Liberal government.
As a BC resident who voted for NDP last time I'd happily vote for one of Lee, Stone, or Watts.
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« Reply #44 on: February 02, 2018, 11:29:31 pm »

Anyway here are my predictions for tomorrow
1st ballot
Watts 27%
Lee 23%
De Jong 21%
Wilkinson 16%
Stone 8%
Sullivan 5%

Third ballot
Watts 30%
Lee 26%
De Jong 26%
Wilkinson 18%

Fourth ballot
Watts 36%
Lee 33%
De Jong 31%

Final Ballod
Lee 53%
Watts 47%

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« Reply #45 on: February 02, 2018, 11:49:58 pm »

And all of this is playing out against this opposite-side-of-the-chamber tableau...

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/first-ndp-premier-of-b-c-dave-barrett-dead-at-87
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« Reply #46 on: February 03, 2018, 12:31:10 am »

Any idea how long this leadership vote is going to take?  The Vancouver Institute lecture is at 8:15 PM tomorrow and I'd kind of like to go to it, but I also want to see the 'convention.'
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« Reply #47 on: February 03, 2018, 12:35:28 am »

Any idea how long this leadership vote is going to take?  The Vancouver Institute lecture is at 8:15 PM tomorrow and I'd kind of like to go to it, but I also want to see the 'convention.'
Well voting concludes at 5 pm tomorrow and judging based on past elections I would guess should take an hour to  90 minutes to announce the results.
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« Reply #48 on: February 03, 2018, 12:37:16 am »

Any idea how long this leadership vote is going to take?  The Vancouver Institute lecture is at 8:15 PM tomorrow and I'd kind of like to go to it, but I also want to see the 'convention.'
Well voting concludes at 5 pm tomorrow and judging based on past elections I would guess should take an hour to and 90 minutes to announce the results.

Thanks! A tight fit.

This is the lecture:
"UNSEEN ENEMY: The risks of a global pandemic and how to prevent it" is this Saturday's Vancouver Institute lecture to be delivered by Janet Tobias, multiple award-winning director/producer.
https://www.facebook.com/TheVancouverInstitute/
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« Reply #49 on: February 03, 2018, 02:35:00 am »

BC Lib leadership race is not OMOV - it's 100 points for every riding irrespective if that riding has 5,000 members or 100 members. Membership counts for nothing here. Makes final outcome a complete crap-shoot.

That said... some tea leaves. Yesterday the Stone campaign stated that final ballot will be between Watts & Stone. Later on both the Lee & De Jong camps disputed that & stated that final ballot will be between them & Watts. Quite clear there (along with other corroborating evidence) that Watts will finish 1st on the first ballot. Thereafter, very difficult to read.

FWIW, as for 1st ballot results - 2 leaked internal CATI polls by Innovative Research from last October/November had this last decided result of BC Lib members (without material change month/month) on 1st ballot:

Watts - 41%
De Jong - 19%
Stone - 15%
Wilkinson - 12%
Lee - 7%
Sullivan - 5%

Perhaps just grain of salt stuff.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2018, 02:37:07 am by Lotuslander »Logged
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