Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread

[Pragmatic Conservative]

The voting period has closed and results  to be announced at 6 pm pst.

[mileslunn]

1st Ballot results are

1.  Diane Watts
2.  Michael Lee
3.  Andrew Wilkinson
4.  Todd Stone
5.  Mike de Jong
6.  Sam Sullivan

Quite tight as expected amongst the first five, but I am going to go out on a limb and see Michael Lee wins this.  Interesting the top two are both outsiders suggesting people feel someone least tied to past leaders is best.

[mileslunn]

De Jong out on second ballot so that is probably good news for Wilkinson. Now a fight between establishment and outsiders with outsiders ahead.

[Harlow]

Down to just Watts, Lee, and Wilkinson.

Wilkinson ahead of Lee on 4th ballot by just 30 points, wow.

[mileslunn]

Lee is now out so down to Wilkinson or Watts.  I think Watts might win this as Lee is an outsider so I could see a lot of his support going to Watts instead of Wilkinson.  I suspect it will be close either way.

[Harlow]

It's Wilkinson.

[mileslunn]

Talk about a close one as expected.  Whether the party made the right or wrong choice only time will tell.  He was not my first choice, but I think he is a reasonably decent person.  Admittedly for the BC Liberals, the results of the PR referendum will be critical.  If PR passes, I would say they have a very steep hill to climb to win the next election, but if it fails, their chances are much better although not certain.

[adma]

FWIW, as for 1st ballot results - 2 leaked internal CATI polls by Innovative Research from last October/November had this last decided result of BC Lib members (without material change month/month) on 1st ballot:

Watts - 41%
De Jong - 19%
Stone - 15%
Wilkinson - 12%
Lee - 7%
Sullivan - 5%

Perhaps just grain of salt stuff.

Is it ever.

[136or142]

Wilkinson is a terrible person.  He is a moron with a great resume completely lacking in common sense (or decency.)

The Liberal convention went long so I couldn't make it the lecture but the disaster horror movie 'Ants' is on television tonight.  I don't know if I'll watch it, but I think the B.C Liberals have their own disaster horror on their hands with Wilkinson as leader.

If you think this is over the top, if you can find it I'd urge you to check out the interview Wilkinson had with CKNW radio show host 'Drex' after David Eby initially released the report on ICBC.

Wilkinson commented something like "the NDP has now had a full week to say what they're going to do about ICBC."

Drex "That's hardly fair is it?  You guys had 16 years."

Wilkinson's response (or lack of one) was the radio equivalent of the deer in the headlights.

So, that's how pathetic Wilkinson is.

Edit to add: I was wrong, it's still available
https://omny.fm/shows/steele-drex/bc-liberal-mla-andrew-wilkinson-reacts-to-the-icbc

I forgot that later in the interview Jody Vance also asked several questions.  I think by far the most important question she asked is whether any B.C Liberal had read the report while the Liberals were still in government.  Wilkinson's 'no' is clearly a lie as Mike De Jong had read the report and Todd Stone read a redacted version of the report.

Edit, I listened to it again and Wilkinson sidestepped the question saying merely "I understand this report was leaked...Friday or Saturday."

I guess this raises the question: What did Wilkinson know about who in the Liberal government had read the report and when did he know it?"

[Lotuslander]

So Wilkinson has won the race. Who woulda thunk? BTW, Wilkinson is a federal *blue* Liberal (red tory-type).

Tidbits from Province Columnist Mike Smyth's column tonight:

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http://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/mike-smyth-can-the-liberals-brainy-new-boss-win-big?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#pq=okbCeg

Now 2 scenarios that could see current GreeNDP minority gov't fall:

1st Scenario:
 
This fall, 2018 the PR referendum will occur. To date, media narrative has been "Fix is In", which connotes deceit to BC public IMHO. Akin to *Gerrymandering* in some US districts. I will stick my neck out and say it will likely fail for those and plethora of other reasons.

The BC Greens back the current NDP gov't as the PR referendum is their proverbial *Holy Grail*. If that PR referendum fails... no reason for Greens to support NDP based upon other reasons.

Current other reasons? LNG. BC Green Party leader Andrew Weaver has recently stated that if BC NDP supports any LNG development in BC... it will be crossing the "line in the sand" & Greens will vote gov't down in non-confidence. Only chance for that to happen is vote on next month's BC budget (confidence vote) or March, 2019 budget vote after likely PR referendum fail.

At that time, NDP/Green fractures likely more prevalent (based upon just today) & NDP may have major fall in opinion polling, which the Greens may also *wear*. Remember that, after October, 1991 BC election... took only 1 1/2 years until March, 1993 before then BC NDP support collapsed to 3rd place (after BC Libs/BC Reform) & negative NDP brand in BC also caused fed NDP support collapse to just 2 seats in fall, 1993 fed election.

More Ominous Scenario #2:

Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning into BC.

Off the bat, relatively recent Angus Reid opinion poll (opt-in online methodology) on BCer's attitudes upon same:



Moreover, over past 8+ years all opinion polls in BC corroborate that just ~20% of BCers are *STRONGLY* opposed to the KM twinning. Key figure albeit they have loudest voices. Typical for BC in terms of silent majority.

Current KM TMP is already over-subscribed by 60% - 70% every month. Ergo, only refinery in southern BC - the old, small Parkland (formerly Chevron) refinery in Burnaby is unable to source light oil source thereto. It only produces premium blend gasoline + jet fuel.

As such, they import via rail - 110 unit BNSF oil tanker trains from Bakken Basin in North Dakota (which traverse environmentally-sensitive Fraser River estuary in BC) as well 110-unit CN Rail oil tanker trains that traverse Fraser Canyon (high up on cliff with rock face below). If any of those puppies derail ... likely major contamination for salmon-bearing Fraser River.

BTW, diluted bitumen or dilbit has flown through existing KM TMP for last 30 years and represented 39% of flow back in 2012.

What folk also do not understand is that the existing KM TMP (TransMountain Pipeline) is a unique *batched* pipeline in that light oil, heavy oil & refined products flow through same. BC is essentially a *captive market* to current TMP in terms of refined products - gasoline & diesel albeit good chunk of jet fuel from Parkland/Cherry Point.

Keep foregoing as background info.

If that refined product (gasoline/diesel, etc.) stops flowing through TMP... BC has no other alternative source (forget WA State refineries - already producing at max for their geographic area - never mind priced in $US). What happens then? Major fuel shortages/gas price spikes in BC - impacts everyone from commuters, commercial trucking, transit buses, BC Ferries, etc. Major economic catastrophe for BC.

Why do I bring this matter up? Because Alberta has legal authority to determine what flows through current TMP to BC. AB Preem Lougheed, for example, previously utilized said authority during his tenure:

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http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/braid-in-pipeline-dispute-alberta-has-ways-to-get-tough-with-b-c

With BC NDP gov't recently attempting to prohibit flow of bitumen into BC... both AB NDP preem Notley & SK NDP leader has called out BC NDP gov't as "political game playing" as quite apparent BC NDP gov't trying to drag out KM twinning for years to come. Again, who woulda thunk?

Moreover, AB NDP preem Notley has already begun trade war action against BC as initial retaliation. But here's the kicker - Jason Kenney's AB UCP is likely to win gov't next May, 2019. Kenney has already stated that he will shut off refined products flowing into BC in TMP. As matter of fact, Kenney was on Vancouver radio last week stating that he doesn't blame people of BC but hardcore enviros in BC NDP gov't.

When (yes when) Kenney shuts off refined product flow through TMP to BC next ~May, 2019 in retaliation to BC NDP's stance on KM... and BC gas shortages erupt with concurrent gas price spikes.. does anyone here seriuosly believe that Horgan likely stating that BCer's wouldn't care about maybe $5/litre gas & they will walk/bike will fly with public?

More likely BCers will take out their flaming torches & pitchforks against NDP gov't & it will fall under too much pressure.

So we have 2 plausible/likely scenarios for current BC NDP gov't to fall by next spring, 2019. Anyone beg to differ? If so, def look forward to your analysis then.

[Lotuslander]

BTW, Patti Bacchus, former centre-left/left Vancouver School Board chair with deep BC NDP roots - her take on new BC Lib leader Wilkinson:

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[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

the fact the pipline approval numbers for both Greens and the NDP are the same is ... counterintuitive.

[DL]

Mainstreet has Dianne Watts ahead with 29.9% amongst decided and leaning BC Liberal voters. Other candidates as follows:

Andrew Wilkinson - 21.3%
Todd Stone - 19.6%
Mike de Jong - 16.3%
Michael Lee - 10.5%
Sam Sullivan - 2.4%

This is the fourth party leadership contest in a row that Mainstreet has attempted to poll and got totally wrong...though not quite as totally wrong as last weeks Sask Party leadership. Honestly why do they even bother trying to poll leadership contests? They get it dead wrong every single time and it’s bad for their already damaged reputation

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet has Dianne Watts ahead with 29.9% amongst decided and leaning BC Liberal voters. Other candidates as follows:

Andrew Wilkinson - 21.3%
Todd Stone - 19.6%
Mike de Jong - 16.3%
Michael Lee - 10.5%
Sam Sullivan - 2.4%

This is the fourth party leadership contest in a row that Mainstreet has attempted to poll and got totally wrong...though not quite as totally wrong as last weeks Sask Party leadership. Honestly why do they even bother trying to poll leadership contests? They get it dead wrong every single time and it’s bad for their already damaged reputation

It's impossible to poll leadership elections unless you have what you did in the last federal Liberal leadership race where someone runs away with it.  What you can do is poll how each candidate would fair in a general election, otherwise whom would be best for the party to choose but that doesn't mean they will follow.  The problem is in most leadership races, less than half of the members actually vote.  Also you have to ask about second and third choices as those play a major role (Just think if Michael Lee only got a few more second choices of Stone and De Jong he would have knocked off Wilkinson and probably won it).  Also every riding has equal weighting so a riding with only 10 members has the same weighting as one with 1,000 members so pretty much you would have to survey every member to even get a slight indication.  Otherwise unless there is a clear favourite, its a crapshoot.  Now I think in the last federal Liberal leadership race where Justin Trudeau got 80% on the first ballot, a poll would pick that up, but that was a blowout not close like the recent races have been.

[Njall]

Mainstreet has Dianne Watts ahead with 29.9% amongst decided and leaning BC Liberal voters. Other candidates as follows:

Andrew Wilkinson - 21.3%
Todd Stone - 19.6%
Mike de Jong - 16.3%
Michael Lee - 10.5%
Sam Sullivan - 2.4%

This is the fourth party leadership contest in a row that Mainstreet has attempted to poll and got totally wrong...though not quite as totally wrong as last weeks Sask Party leadership. Honestly why do they even bother trying to poll leadership contests? They get it dead wrong every single time and it’s bad for their already damaged reputation

It's impossible to poll leadership elections unless you have what you did in the last federal Liberal leadership race where someone runs away with it.  What you can do is poll how each candidate would fair in a general election, otherwise whom would be best for the party to choose but that doesn't mean they will follow.  The problem is in most leadership races, less than half of the members actually vote.  Also you have to ask about second and third choices as those play a major role (Just think if Michael Lee only got a few more second choices of Stone and De Jong he would have knocked off Wilkinson and probably won it).  Also every riding has equal weighting so a riding with only 10 members has the same weighting as one with 1,000 members so pretty much you would have to survey every member to even get a slight indication.  Otherwise unless there is a clear favourite, its a crapshoot.  Now I think in the last federal Liberal leadership race where Justin Trudeau got 80% on the first ballot, a poll would pick that up, but that was a blowout not close like the recent races have been.

FWIW, Mainstreet says they poll leadership races based off of past federal and provincial donor lists. It could be that the federal CPC component of the BC Liberals were over-emphasized in polling. It's very possible that a similar thing happened in the Sask Party Leadership where Mainstream had the more conservative Cheveldayoff ahead.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Yeah, Wilkinson is a very socially liberal guy. He's got a gay son who I... know.

I'll be interesting. I think Wilkinson could be painted as an elitist weenie pretty easily, but he's also chill and seems approachable, so who knows what'll happen.

[136or142]

Yeah, Wilkinson is a very socially liberal guy. He's got a gay son who I... know.

I'll be interesting. I think Wilkinson could be painted as an elitist weenie pretty easily, but he's also chill and seems approachable, so who knows what'll happen.

He's pretty fly for a white guy.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

This was a flop for the BC Libs. If anything it gives the Greens a chance to grow.

[Cynthia]

I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

[136or142]

I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

[Cynthia]

I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

I'm just really not fond of the empty house tax thing, and for that reason it's at least 95% likely I vote Liberal or not vote at all

Like I can't keep a house that I owned for 10 years just because I moved abroad for work?

Edit: it's not actually empty (fully rented out except two rooms and my family live there around 3 months of the year), but from my understanding of the proposed plan I would still be taxed at 2%. I'm not opposed to raising taxes; for example, if BC gov't increase my property taxes by 100% and use that money to fund affordable housing, I have zero problem with it; I am COMPLETELY not opposed to taxing vacant propertiesbut 2% estimated value tax on houses that are fully rented out seems ridiculous IMO.

All my rents are below market and I have never raised rent for the past 5 years.

[Hatman 🍁]

Vancouver is dealing with a huge housing shortage due to foreign ownership, and is pricing out middle and work class residents. How would you deal with the situation?

My take is if you can afford to homes, you can afford to pay the tax. If you can't pay the tax, then maybe you shouldn't be owning two homes. There are thousands of BCians who actually contribute to the local economy by living there that deserve it way more.

[136or142]

I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

I'm just really not fond of the empty house tax thing, and for that reason it's at least 95% likely I vote Liberal or not vote at all

Like I can't keep a house that I owned for 10 years just because I moved abroad for work?

You can keep it. You just either have to rent it out or pay a tax on it.  I don't think that is too onerous, especially since you can hire a property management company to take care of the rental part.

For instance: http://www.easyrent.ca/

[ProgressiveCanadian]

I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

I'm just really not fond of the empty house tax thing, and for that reason it's at least 95% likely I vote Liberal or not vote at all

Like I can't keep a house that I owned for 10 years just because I moved abroad for work?

Consider yourself lucky since it's almost impossible to own a home in the lower mainland.

[MAINEiac4434]

I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

I'm just really not fond of the empty house tax thing, and for that reason it's at least 95% likely I vote Liberal or not vote at all

Like I can't keep a house that I owned for 10 years just because I moved abroad for work?

This is a hilariously out-of-touch post.