Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread (user search)
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  Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread  (Read 7360 times)
adma
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« on: July 28, 2017, 10:34:18 PM »

Here's a question for the B.Cer's. Which candidate will be the media inevitably overhype despite having poor chances with actual party members?

How often does that happen? 

When Christy Clark ran?  (Yeah, she won; but with negligible caucus support.)

As for Watts: for all her localized issues, I think her close call had more to do with the pratfallish federal campaign at large than her own deficiencies.
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adma
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« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2017, 05:37:35 PM »

Maybe, but for a mayor who was last reelected with 85% of the vote and whose city council (and school board) slate dominated in the polls in 2011 and 2014 I would have expected a bigger win, something at least along the lines of what Elsie Wayne did in Saint John in 1993.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_municipal_elections,_2014#Surrey_City_Council_election



 Though keep in mind (and this fact's seldom if ever cited), Elsie was boosted by a Liberal split (the 1988 fed Grit candidate ran and did quite well as an independent in 1993).  Also, the PC brand was still relatively strong in and of itself in the Maritimes, and there was a bit of a "Celtic fringe" isolation factor akin to that which sustained the Liberal brand in the UK's extremities through the post-WWII years.  By comparison, whatever her municipal popularity, I doubt that a Dianne Watts running for the PCs in Surrey in 1993 would have succeeded; at best, she might have managed a quarter of the vote a la Kim Campbell.

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However, remember that Surrey's a big place encompassing several federal and provincial ridings--and the south part which Watts represents also happens to be the whitest and most "removed" from the heart of the gang-violence et al problem; it's really more of a "Greater White Rock" constituency with a touch of Fraser Valley Bible Belt-ism around the edges. Thus if her support remains cushioned anywhere, it's here.

And that she still came close to losing isn't just due to Justinmania; the Grits have always had above-average "moderate retiree" strength in White Rock.
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adma
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« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2018, 12:30:22 AM »

A leadership election in Canada that doesn't take three years to complete? What is this insanity?

Well, it is only a provincial party we're talking about.

*And*, a provincial party that could still make it to power in advance of a scheduled election date, due to the nature of the coalition government presently in charge.  (Remember: the BCGrits alone still have a plurality of members.)
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adma
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« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2018, 11:49:58 PM »

And all of this is playing out against this opposite-side-of-the-chamber tableau...

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/first-ndp-premier-of-b-c-dave-barrett-dead-at-87
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adma
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« Reply #4 on: February 03, 2018, 10:27:51 PM »


FWIW, as for 1st ballot results - 2 leaked internal CATI polls by Innovative Research from last October/November had this last decided result of BC Lib members (without material change month/month) on 1st ballot:

Watts - 41%
De Jong - 19%
Stone - 15%
Wilkinson - 12%
Lee - 7%
Sullivan - 5%

Perhaps just grain of salt stuff.


Is it ever.
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