Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread

[DC Al Fine]

Moore left politics for family reasons. IIRC, his son has some pretty severe health problems, so I doubt he's getting back into politics.

[DC Al Fine]

Here's a question for the B.Cer's. Which candidate will be the media inevitably overhype despite having poor chances with actual party members?

[DC Al Fine]

Here's a question for the B.Cer's. Which candidate will be the media inevitably overhype despite having poor chances with actual party members?

How often does that happen? 

When Christy Clark ran?  (Yeah, she won; but with negligible caucus support.)

As for Watts: for all her localized issues, I think her close call had more to do with the pratfallish federal campaign at large than her own deficiencies.

Yeah, the Tory vote in her seat only declined by about 8%, which was pretty close to the national average, and way better than normal for B.C. The Tories were taking 15-25% declines in most of  Greater Vancouver. Watts close result seems more due to the Liberals consolidating the ABC vote than anything else.

[DC Al Fine]

Maybe, but for a mayor who was last reelected with 85% of the vote and whose city council (and school board) slate dominated in the polls in 2011 and 2014 I would have expected a bigger win, something at least along the lines of what Elsie Wayne did in Saint John in 1993.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_municipal_elections,_2014#Surrey_City_Council_election

 Though keep in mind (and this fact's seldom if ever cited), Elsie was boosted by a Liberal split (the 1988 fed Grit candidate ran and did quite well as an independent in 1993).  Also, the PC brand was still relatively strong in and of itself in the Maritimes, and there was a bit of a "Celtic fringe" isolation factor akin to that which sustained the Liberal brand in the UK's extremities through the post-WWII years.  By comparison, whatever her municipal popularity, I doubt that a Dianne Watts running for the PCs in Surrey in 1993 would have succeeded; at best, she might have managed a quarter of the vote a la Kim Campbell.

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However, remember that Surrey's a big place encompassing several federal and provincial ridings--and the south part which Watts represents also happens to be the whitest and most "removed" from the heart of the gang-violence et al problem; it's really more of a "Greater White Rock" constituency with a touch of Fraser Valley Bible Belt-ism around the edges. Thus if her support remains cushioned anywhere, it's here.

And that she still came close to losing isn't just due to Justinmania; the Grits have always had above-average "moderate retiree" strength in White Rock.

I was not aware of that myself with Elsie Wayne. 

It's a neat little quirk of history. The Liberal + Indy vote actually was greater than Elsie's, although only by a couple hundred votes. The Tories could have salvaged a few more seats if the Liberals had any competition to their left in Atlantic Canada. Reform benefited from this a bit out West.

For example, here are the top Tory results by vote share in 1993:
1) Jean Charest, Sherbrooke, 52.4%
2) Bernard Valcourt, Madawaska-Victoria, 45.7%
3) Elsie Wayne, Saint John, 43.3%
4) Ross Reid, St. John's East, 42.1%
5) Greg Thompson, Carleton-Charlotte, 40.6%

Pulling 40% in a few Atlantic Canadian seats (and 30% in several more) is quite impressive given the Tories total collapse, and in most elections would be enough to retain said seats. I don't think anyone would have been able to pull a comparable result for the Tories in suburban Vancouver in 1993.

[DC Al Fine]

Vancouver is dealing with a huge housing shortage due to foreign ownership, and is pricing out middle and work class residents.

I feel bad for Torontonians and Vancouverites. Seems nearly impossible to have a middle class lifestyle out there. Perhaps some of them should move out east? Halifax has a comparable unemployment rate, higher median household income and home prices are cheap. My wife and I are buying a starter home next year and our budget is < $200,000.

How would you deal with the situation?

My take is if you can afford to homes, you can afford to pay the tax. If you can't pay the tax, then maybe you shouldn't be owning two homes. There are thousands of BCians who actually contribute to the local economy by living there that deserve it way more.

I really doubt the tax will be that effective. The stereotypical PRC multi-millionaire using a house as insurance in case things go south is not going to blink at an extra $5k in property tax or whatever it is. Besides, Cynthia said the tax covers rentals... Taxing additional supply is not going to solve the housing shortage

In a perfect world (assuming I'm running all three levels of government) I would:

1) Significantly tighten mortgage lending rules

2) Hike property taxes on single family homes, not just on foreign owned or empty homes. This will hopefully promote building more medium density townhouses semis and lowrise apartments.You

3) Encourage building like crazy. Half the problem is supply. Steamroll NIMBY opposition and any foolish building/planning regulations on the books (not sure what Vancouver's are, but it would generally involve making it easier to build the homes described  in #2; zone more places for stuff other than single family homes, cut parking requirements, setback requirements etc)

[DC Al Fine]

Vancouver is dealing with a huge housing shortage due to foreign ownership, and is pricing out middle and work class residents.

I feel bad for Torontonians and Vancouverites. Seems nearly impossible to have a middle class lifestyle out there. Perhaps some of them should move out east? Halifax has a comparable unemployment rate, higher median household income and home prices are cheap. My wife and I are buying a starter home next year and our budget is < $200,000.

I suppose the jobs in Halifax aren't as lucrative? It's not really seen as a beacon of employment in its reputation, but it is a wonderful city, and I wouldn't mind living there myself if I had to.

Wages are lower, but still in the ballpark (at least compared to Vancouver). It's more a combination of the industries available to work in, a lack of community for visible minorities (our visible minorities are mostly black or Arab, relatively few Punjabis or Chinese), and the fact that Vancouver is a very, very nice place to live and people just don't want to leave.

Oh and there's a stereotype that the Maritimes are entirely made up of quaint fishing villages that seems to be quite common