The Election That Was Never Supposed To Be

[TheSaint250]

[The Govanah Jake]

hmm

[TheSaint250]

Preface

   According to many pundits that you might ask, the presidential election of 2020 began on July 28, 2017.  On that day, a little-known politician, Maryland Representative John Delaney announced that he would run for President of the United States.  Such an announcement was deemed strange since the first contest of the 2020 primary season wouldn’t take place for another two-and-a-half years.  Some pundits might say that it really started in early 2019 when Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, the first candidate with a very credible shot at the Democratic nomination, announced that she would seek the presidency.
   The pundits that would say the day Delaney announced would be the closest, but they would still be wrong.  The madness known as the election of 2020 began the day before when the incumbent President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, shook up his staff, firing the former chairman of the party that led him to victory: Chief of Staff Reince Priebus.

[TheSaint250]

November 7, 2018

DEMOCRATS TAKE HOUSE
    SENATE SPLIT 50-50

     Democrats took control of the House of Representatives in yesterday's midterm election, gaining a total of 32 seats.  Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who is likely to once again rise to the position of Speaker of the House, praised said last night that the results "show that President Trump and his destructive policies are not acceptable to the American people."  Current Speaker of the House Paul Ryan spoke early this morning, disappointed at his party's performance and even seeming to blame the President for the results, saying that "Congress wasn't always aligned with the leaders of the party as would have been right for another two-year majority."  While many speculate that he will step down from his presumed role of Minority Leader come January, he gave no indication of such a resignation.  Ryan is expected to make one last major push for tax reform before January 3rd.
     Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who will most likely remain in his position, promised to "look to compromise with the new leadership in the House but will fight any sort of obstructionist tactics they aim to institute."  Republican Senator Dean Heller lost his seat to Congresswoman Jacky Rosen, and former Arizona State Senator Kelli Ward, who successfully defeated Senator Jeff Flake in the primary election, lost to Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton.  Unable to defeat any "red-state" Democrats, it is reported that McConnell secretly blamed the President for almost causing the Senate to fall into Democrats' hands.
     Exit polls indicate that the reason for Democrats' performance yesterday was the passage of a "skinny repeal" of the Affordable Care Act, which the Congressional Budget Office predicted would result in 13 million Americans losing health care coverage.  An initial skinny repeal failed in the Senate in July of 2017, but following meetings between Republican Senate leaders and their colleagues who initially voted no, the Senate passed the repeal and promised to replace the health care act as soon as possible.  Representatives in the House did the same two weeks later.
     Another main reason for the Democrats' performance is the approval ratings of President Trump.  57% of voters considered his behavior to be "greatly unpresidential," with another 11% considering his behavior to be "somewhat unpresidential."  Fifty percent of Republicans expressed some form of disapproval with his lack of initiative on or involvement with any form of major legislation. Seventy-two percent of Republicans were disappointed that tax reform had not occurred before yesterday's vote.

[TheSaint250]

If anyone would like to request any Senate results, feel free to do so.

[heatcharger]

If anyone would like to request any Senate results, feel free to do so.

How did MO, IN, and ND go?

[TheSaint250]

November 7, 2018

Unable to Separate State Politics from National Politics, Republican Governors Look for a New Path Forward

     Yesterday was a brutal day for Republican governors.  Holding 34 governorships is a challenge for any party, especially when that matches a party's all-time high.  The Republican National Committee was aware of this, and, under the direction of Chairwoman Ronna Romney-McDaniel, it aimed to minimize its loses.  Less money was put into gubernatorial races that the party was destined to lose, such as Michigan, where Governor Rick Snyder's poor handling of the Flint Water Crisis would make any Republican nominee the underdog.  The party instead looked to hold on to crucial swing seats, such as those in Florida and Maryland, and win some blue states with unpopular governors, such as Connecticut and Rhode Island.  It was a logical strategy, but unfortunately for the Republican Party, 2018 was a Democrat year.  The party lost 11 seats in total, and come January, they will be holding only 22 state gubernatorial seats.  Similarly to House and Senate race exit polls, the main reasons that Democrats won where they did were reported to be health care and President Trump's approval ratings.  Even in Ohio, where current Republican Governor John Kasich expanded Medicare, Republican nominee Mike DeWine could not separate himself from the health care debate at the national level.  Many Republican governors with somewhat decent approval ratings, including Scott Walker of Wisconsin and Kim Reynolds of Iowa, were caught up in the Democratic wave and lost their seats to opponents who made the state race national.  Democratic nominees across the country ran against strong Republican governors and nominees by promoting a message of resistance to President Trump, saying that strong governors would be needed to make sure that the federal government does not "exercise a form of dictatorial power over the states."
     Going into the 2019 and 2020 gubernatorial elections, the Republican Party needs to work to separate national politics from state politics in order to win, but with Donald Trump in the White House, can it be done?

[TheSaint250]

Also, if there are any requests for gubernatorial elections, feel free to ask as well.

[TheSaint250]

If anyone would like to request any Senate results, feel free to do so.

How did MO, IN, and ND go?

Indiana:

Joe Donnelly: 48.7%
Todd Rokita: 47.3%

Missouri:

Claire McCaskill: 49.1%
Josh Hawley: 48.8%

North Dakota:

Heidi Heitkamp: 50.4%
Kevin Cramer: 47.8%

[Senator Cris]

Looks very good!

[TheSaint250]

Looks very good!

Thank you!

[Gone to Carolina]

Who is the new Democratic Governor of Kansas?

Also looks interesting, will be following this.

[MAINEiac4434]

Also, if there are any requests for gubernatorial elections, feel free to ask as well.

Maine and New Hampshire, please.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

How did Florida's 2 elections go?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Looks great so far. Looking forward to seeing more. Anyway how close was Texas on the Senate level and Georgia Governors race.? Also did Handel,Yoder, and Walberg survive?

[TheSaint250]

Who is the new Democratic Governor of Kansas?

Kansas (Governor):

Josh Svaty: 49.3%
Kris Kobach: 46.7%

Maine and New Hampshire, please.

Maine (Governor):

Janet Mills: 42.5%
Mary Mayhew: 39.1%
Terry Hayes: 18.4%

New Hampshire (Governor):

Colin Van Ostern: 48.2%
Chris Sununu: 43.8%
Jilletta Jarvis: 5.0%

How did Florida's 2 elections go?

Florida (Governor):

Gwen Graham: 49.8%
Adam Putnam: 47.4%

Florida (Senate):

Bill Nelson: 50.4%
Rick Scott: 44.1%

Anyway how close was Texas on the Senate level and Georgia Governors race.?

Texas (Senate):

Ted Cruz: 52.7%
Beto O'Rourke: 43.3%

Georgia (Governor):

Casey Cagle: 51.9%
Stacey Abrams: 46.6%

Also did Handel,Yoder, and Walberg survive?

I based the House results off of an old infobox I made for a hypothetical timeline on AH.com that ended up not happening since I wasn't really serious about it, so House results may not be the best.  In regards to what you're posting, I have Handel and Walberg being defeated and Yoder surviving.

In regards to the House elections above, if anyone wants to know specific representatives, i will be happy to answer, but I probably won't discuss whole statewide results.

Also, if anyone has any suggestions on results I have provided (about candidates, results, etc.), feel free to suggest.

Also looks interesting, will be following this.

Looks great so far. Looking forward to seeing more.

Thanks for the support!

[Don Vito Corleone]

Does John McCain still have health problems ITTL?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Did Jon Ossoff defead Handel or someone else? Also, how did the two Wisconsin races go? Great Timeline!

[Heisenberg]

If anyone would like to request any Senate results, feel free to do so.

How did MO, IN, and ND go?

Indiana:

Joe Donnelly: 48.7%
Todd Rokita: 47.3%

Missouri:

Claire McCaskill: 49.1%
Josh Hawley: 48.8%

North Dakota:

Heidi Heitkamp: 50.4%
Kevin Cramer: 47.8%

Oooouuchh so painful. I guess partisanship dies down and "the base" refuses to vote GOP even though they're closer to them than the Democrats, I guess?

Montana and West Virginia Senate, please?

[TheSaint250]

Does John McCain still have health problems ITTL?

I had not planned on getting too involved with this, so let's say for now that he is still undergoing treatment.  I might come back to this later.

Did Jon Ossoff defead Handel or someone else?

Yes, in 2018, Democrats recruit him again, and he defeats Handel as part of the wave election.

Also, how did the two Wisconsin races go?

Wisconsin (Governor):

Kathleen Vinehout: 50.2%
Scott Walker: 48.3%

Wisconsin (Senate):

Tammy Baldwin: 52.6%
Eric Hovde: 46.5%

Great Timeline!

Thank you!

Oooouuchh so painful. I guess partisanship dies down and "the base" refuses to vote GOP even though they're closer to them than the Democrats, I guess?

Pretty much lower turnout from Republicans across the board, some Trump Democrats voting Democratic again, and big Democratic turnout and funding of candidates.

Montana and West Virginia Senate, please?

Montana (Senate):

Jon Tester: 51.3%
Matt Rosendale: 47.9%

West Virginia (Senate):

Joe Manchin: 53.6%
Evan Jenkins: 44.4%

[TheSaint250]

December 18, 2018

BREAKING: TRUMP
     LEAVES GOP

   In a tweet early this morning, President Donald Trump declared his intention to leave the Republican Party, a surprise to many.  The President had attacked congressional leaders like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan recently after no significant progress had been made since January 20, 2017 to repeal Obamacare and cut taxes.  In an interview in late November, Trump said that the party "deserved the massive losses because they can't do what the people want."  McConnell, Paul, and other top Republicans expressed their disapproval with the President's attacks and called on him to "stop and work with us."
     Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez released a statement in which he praised the President for agreeing that "Republicans can't effectively govern" but also wrote that the party would continue to "resist the President's agenda, which Republicans still agree with."  Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel could not be reached for a comment.

[TheSaint250]

December 20, 2018

Uncertainty Going Forward After Trump's Defection

     Needless to say, President Trump's defection from the Republican Party to become an independent shocked the political world.  However, not only are current politics in disarray, especially with a Democratic House of Representatives come January, but also in a state of confusion is the political world eagerly awaiting the start of the 2020 presidential election.  Trump's campaign-style rallies throughout his presidency convinced many that he would undoubtedly run for re-election.  Now, the President doesn't have a party, so the big question is: will President Trump run as an independent in the 2020 election?
     "The President is all about making waves and 'shaking things up,'" says FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver.  "He's already made history by being the third independent President of the United States, after George Washington and John Tyler.  In this age, it's virtually impossible to win as a third-party candidate, but he would really make history by doing so.  He still has a following.  His approval rating hovers around 30%, and some Republicans might remain loyal to him.  In addition, if both parties' nominees are from the 'establishment,' he can campaign as he did in 2016 and even hold some his white working-class votes that voted for President Obama in 2012 and voted Republican four years later."
     Despite these favorable numbers for the President, Silver doesn't expect a third-party run to get very far.  "He could win some states--maybe West Virginia--but he has virtually no path back to the White House.  He couldn't win nearly enough states, and that's assuming he makes it on the ballot on enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.  He would almost certainly take more votes from the Republican nominee and give the Democrat a victory.  Even if he managed to somehow prevent any candidate from winning at least 270 electoral votes, the House would most definitely not vote for him.
   "To sum it up: will Trump run?  Probably.  Will he win?  No chance whatsoever."

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks very good!

[TheSaint250]

December 20, 2018

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Huge Number of Possible Candidates for Both Sides

     President Trump's announcement to become an independent has allowed for the Republican field to grow much larger than it would have before.  Let's go over the most speculated candidates for both parties.

Republicans

Potential Candidates:

Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana: President Trump's announcement resulted in lots of questions about whether Pence would stay on as the Vice President or not.  He has been a steadfast conservative Republican for years and is viewed favorably by the base.  If he were to leave his position and run for President, he would most likely start out in first place.  He governed as a social conservative during his time as Governor of Indiana and strongly favors tax cuts.

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: Cruz's image was damaged in 2016 among Republicans after tepidly endorsing Trump, who accused his father of being part of the assassination plot against President Kennedy and attacking his wife.  After scaling back public appearances, Cruz became more active before his re-election in 2018, in which he defeated Representative Beto O'Rourke by an underwhelming nine points.  Recently, he has ramped up attacks against Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for failing to "fight for and protect conservative principles" and even showed signs of disapproval with the President.  He still has a large following and would be a top contender throughout the primary season.

Governor John Kasich of Ohio: For more than a year, Kasich had been boosting his public appearances and was very vocal in regards to policies of the current administration that he disagreed with.  As Governor of Ohio, he is famous for having expanded Medicare throughout the state and consistently pointed this out as Congress attempted to repeal Obamacare.  His approval rating is hovering around 60% and will most likely stay there when he leaves office in January of next year.  Many speculated that he would either challenge Trump in the primaries or run as an independent (he spent time criticizing the Republican Party as well), but with Trump's desertion of the GOP, the governor will most likely run in the primaries.

Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas: Elected in 2014, Tom Cotton has made a name for himself by being the most conservative member of the Senate.  While many members of the Republican Party moved away from Trump, Cotton stuck by.  He was one of the masterminds behind the RAISE Act, which, if passed, would have limited immigration to more high-skilled immigrants.  The senator is deeply socially and economically conservative and has called for the Republican Party to "move away from partnering with opponents of traditional values."

Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska: Sasse is another social and economic conservative who differs from the others above due to his strong opposition to President Trump.  He refused to endorse Trump in 2016 and has since spoken out against some of the administration's "ridiculous and concerning" actions.  He had recently attempted to boost his national appearances, traveling across the country to stump for Republican candidates in 2018.  In addition, he has frequently appeared on Sunday morning talk shows to discuss his plan to "remove the damage the President has done to the Republican Party."

Other Potential, But Less Likely, Candidates:

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida
Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin
Former Governor Rick Scott of Florida
Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa
UN Ambassador Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts
Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky

Possible Dark Horse Candidates:

Representative Justin Amash of Michigan
Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado

Continued below

[TheSaint250]

Democrats

Declared Candidates:

Representative John Delaney of Maryland: Delaney surprised many when he announced his candidacy in July of 2017, 2.5 years before the primary competitions will begin.  So far, Delaney has not boosted his national profile to a high enough level to have a serious shot at the nomination, a visibility level already set low due to his only being a representative.  He has staked out his ideological position as being "simply liberal," which does not do much for Democratic primary voters.  While his campaign has not been full of rallies and has only consisted of bus tours across the country, Delaney told ABC's Martha Raddatz that his campaign will "become much more active in the coming days."

Potential Candidates:

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts: An outspoken progressive, Warren spent the last two years fighting President Trump and his "agenda of evil."  Just as Senator Sasse had done, she traveled across the country to campaign for Democrats on every electoral level.  She has recently pushed for single-payer health care and higher taxes on the wealthy and has already promised to work with the incoming Democratic-majority House and the Senate to fulfill such promises.  Coming fresh off her re-electon campaign, Warren excited Democrats eager to defeat the President with her rousing speeches, the most notable of which attacked Republicans for attempting to repeal Obamacare.  She would start out as a top candidate, if not the top candidate.

Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey: Booker has stood out as the establishment's choice going into the primary season and the progressives' choice for intraparty enemy.  His recent push for the full legalization of marijuana failed to fully accumulate due to Republican congressional opposition, but just like Senator Warren, he will work with the new Congress to get the act all the way to the President's desk.  While many establishment figures look to him as being a powerful general election candidate that can move an audience, progressives have attacked him for his lack of a proper answer when asked about supporting single-payer health care and for his defense of Bain Capital during the 2012 general election.  As of now, Booker is most likely to attract support of establishment candidates.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York: While her national profile is not up to the levels of Warren and Booker, Gillibrand was well-known for being the senator who opposed more of President Trump's nominees for government posts than any others, most notably being the only senator to vote against General James Mattis's appointment to the office of Secretary of Defense.  She was once known for a more moderate voting record but has shifted leftward significantly in recent years.  She, too, has been a major opponent of the Trump Administration.

Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York: Recently elected to a third term, Governor Cuomo has pushed for the completion of his progressive agenda, raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour statewide.  He has also been more vocal in the need for single-payer health care in New York, which has not been seriously attempted in any state since California's legislature failed to pass it in 2017.  Cuomo fought back primary challenges by touting his progressive credentials, winning 82% of the Democratic primary vote.  It's been no secret that he's been aiming for the presidency, and this just might be his time to run.

Former Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland: O'Malley served as Governor of Maryland for eight years and ran for the Democratic nomination in 2016, only to drop out after suffering a massive defeat in the first contest in Iowa.  The governor has not attempted to boost his national appeal, only rarely campaigning for candidates and appearing on morning talk shows every once in awhile.  The governor, however, has made it no secret that he is likely to run, telling CNN's Chris Cuomo that another presidential run is "more likely to happen than not."

Former Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts: Not too many Americans are familiar with the governor, who is reportedly the pick of former Obama Administration officials.  Serving as Governor of Massachusetts for eight years, Patrick later took up a job at Bain Capital, which, as shown from attacks on 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney's relationship with the company, is most likely to be what he gets attacked on the most.  The governor campaigned throughout Massachusetts in 2018 with Democratic candidates, most notably appearing with Democratic gubernatorial nominee Setti Warren, who lost to incumbent Governor and Patrick's 2010 challenger Charlie Baker.  While Patrick and his staff do not address the issue much, the prompting from those tied to former President Obama have, according to an unnamed source, resulted in a "50% chance" of a Patrick candidacy for the nomination.

Former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware: After choosing not to run in 2016, sources close to Biden are saying that the former Vice President is giving a potential candidacy a good look.  He frequently made public appearances to attack President Trump and campaigned with Democratic candidates all over the country.  With favorability ratings hovering at around 55%, Democrats are making an intense push for Biden to run.  Polls showed that he would defeat President Trump or any other Republican nominee handily.  However, another unnamed source claims that the former Vice President is leaning away from a run for President, citing age and the stress and energy involved with a presidential run.  If Biden were to run, he would most definitely start out as the favored candidate.

Senator Kamala Harris of California: Elected in 2016, Harris has attempted to make a name for herself, campaigning with Democrats during this past election cycle throughout California and outside the state to help give Democrats control of the House.  Just like Senator Booker, she has refused to give definitive answers of the possibility of single-payer health care, angering progressives in the process.  Harris made waves early on by meeting with Hillary Clinton donors less than a year after her election, sparking questions about her future plans.  While her favorables are high in California, she has less recognition throughout the rest of the country than a 2020 candidate could have, but this has not stopped candidates before.



Other Potential, But Less Likely, Candidates:

Governor-elect Gavin Newsom of California
Former Governor Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island
Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts
Representative Tim Ryan of Ohio
Governor Steve Bullock of Montana
Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii
Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro
Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon

Possible Dark Horse Candidates:

Former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder
Businessman Mark Cuban
Representative Beto O'Rourke of Texas