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| | |-+  Is Ohio becoming the next Missouri?
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Poll
Question: Is Ohio the next Missouri?
Yes   -47 (38.8%)
No   -32 (26.4%)
Maybe   -39 (32.2%)
See results   -3 (2.5%)
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Total Voters: 121

Author Topic: Is Ohio becoming the next Missouri?  (Read 3993 times)
super6646
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« on: July 29, 2017, 12:05:27 am »

I'm sure most of us are aware of the status Missouri once held as a state in elections. The races were always close, and it was the most reliable bellwether in the American elections It voted for the loser just once throughout the 20th century by an astounding 4000 votes in 1956 (also, 1900 isn't the 20th century). So the history was there, but the state starting trending towards the GOP in 2000 and 2004, and Obama ended up losing in 2008 by around 4000 votes (you see the connection there?). But keep in mind, he won the PV by 8 points, so there were signs it was losing its bellwether status. Then Romney easily wins in 2016, and Trump put it away by almost 20 points this time.

So a very rapid shift, but could Ohio be trending towards the GOP as well? I mean yes, Obama did win in 2012, but the shift this election was astounding. Now Trump did terrible in some of the bigger cities (when was the last time a republican won Ohio without Cincinnati?), but the rural areas and suburbs were all red, including the areas along the eastern part of the state. And the margin of victory was 8 points! Yes, Ohio usually tilts Republican, but by only tiny margins (2004 is an exception). Ohio was 10% more republican this time, and it wasn't as if Clinton did bad in places she needed to. So is Ohio going to lose its status as a swing-state, and ultimately as a bellwether in American elections? Or will it continue to retain the status of "As Ohio goes, so goes the nation"?
« Last Edit: July 29, 2017, 12:11:17 am by super6646 »Logged
The Saint
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« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2017, 12:07:07 am »

It might soon, but just to warn you, there's going to be an onslaught of comments of how one good result doesn't equal moving towards Republicans
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super6646
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« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2017, 12:08:13 am »

It might soon, but just to warn you, there's going to be an onslaught of comments of how one good result doesn't equal moving towards Republicans

I've been here for years (not as a registered user, but still), so I know what could happen. I have my arguments tucked away in case things start to get ugly.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2017, 12:10:09 am by super6646 »Logged
super6646
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« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2017, 12:11:47 am »

I'm sure most of us are aware of the status Missouri once held as a state in elections. The races were always close, and it was the most reliable bellwether in the American elections. It voted for the loser just once throughout the 20th century by an astounding 4000 votes in 1956 (also, 1900 isn't the 20th century). So the history was there, but the state starting trending towards the GOP in 2000 and 2004, and Obama ended up losing in 2008 by around 4000 votes (you see the connection there?). But keep in mind, he won the PV by 8 points, so there were signs it was losing its bellwether status. Then Romney easily wins in 2016, and Trump put it away by almost 20 points this time.

So a very rapid shift, but could Ohio be trending towards the GOP as well? I mean yes, Obama did win in 2012, but the shift this election was astounding. Now Trump did terrible in some of the bigger cities (when was the last time a republican won Ohio without Cincinnati?), but the rural areas and suburbs were all red, including the areas along the eastern part of the state. And the margin of victory was 8 points! Yes, Ohio usually tilts Republican, but by only tiny margins (2004 is an exception). Ohio was 10% more republican this time, and it wasn't as if Clinton did bad in places she needed to. So is Ohio going to lose its status as a swing-state, and ultimately as a bellwether in American elections? Or will it continue to retain the status of "As Ohio goes, so goes the nation"?
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« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2017, 12:33:09 am »

Too early to call, I will want to see 2018 results, and 2020 prez results before I can firmly call it, but for now, I can say it is starting to look ugly for dems, and it is a realistic possibility that it is slipping away.
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« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2017, 12:40:46 am »

I suspect it is definitely leaning in that direction.

Remember, the final pre-Election Day polls predicted that Trump would win Ohio by about 2-4% instead of 8-10%. If his winning margin there had actually been that small, it is unlikely that he would have won Michigan & Pennsylvania. (On another note, the polls also had Trump winning Iowa by 2-4% instead of 8-10%, which, if true, would likely have meant Hillary winning Wisconsin, along with a bigger winning margin in Minnesota.)

For elections in the near future, I think that if the Democratic nominee is on track to win 320+ EVs, then he or she will have a shot a winning Ohio; if he or she is on track to win less than 320 EVs, then Ohio will likely be carried by the Republican candidate, even if the Democratic candidate is on track to win the election overall.
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« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2017, 12:42:22 pm »

Depends on how much he wins Ohio by in 2020.

He won by 8 points in 2016, if he wins by 8+ points in 2020 then I can say we may see a change. He got 51.7% of the vote, and if he only gets that in 2020 (thus winning Ohio by around 5) then it's still swing state status.

Pennsylvania may be the new Ohio though in terms of swing state battles.

Ohio may be what Virginia is to Democrats - a lean-Republican red state but can still be flipped with the right candidate.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2017, 12:45:53 pm by ahugecat »Logged
The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2017, 12:47:40 pm »

Its only been 1 election. 1 Election doesnt make a trend. We will have to see if the trend holds up in 2020, 2024, and beyond and if it does then maybe yes it will become the next missouri.
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« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2017, 01:23:14 pm »

As others have said, we'll have a better idea in 2020. It could also be that it has shifted to the right, but that it won't continue to do so, and will just remain a Lean R state.
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maga2020
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« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2017, 04:01:36 pm »

Trump killed the democratic party in Ohio, they can't win it without Mahoning Valley.

Hamilton County trending blue isn't enough and Delaware will go back to WOW-like margins in 2020 now that president Trump will push an agenda that suits them.
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ossoff2028
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« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2017, 05:01:31 pm »

Yes, Ohio has become the next Missouri. I still consider it a swing state, but in the same sense Indiana is.
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ahugecat
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« Reply #11 on: July 29, 2017, 07:17:26 pm »

As others have said, we'll have a better idea in 2020. It could also be that it has shifted to the right, but that it won't continue to do so, and will just remain a Lean R state.
Like Virginia, right?

Virginia is blue, but people act like it's super dark Massachusetts blue when in reality the right GOP candidate could win it still. Gillespie could have won in 2014 if the GOP didn't pull out of that race.

Ohio will be a 5-7 point Republican state but still winnable for Democrats with the right candidate.

The 2017 Virginia gubernatorial race will be one to watch to see if VA is truly blue.
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ossoff2028
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« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2017, 07:24:26 pm »

Gubernatorial races have no bearing on state partisanship, and it's been obvious since forever Northam's going to win.
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ahugecat
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« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2017, 07:27:35 pm »

Gubernatorial races have no bearing on state partisanship, and it's been obvious since forever Northam's going to win.
That's why I am saying if Gillespie wins (he will) then it's going to put the Democrats into shock.
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ossoff2028
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« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2017, 07:35:49 pm »

Gubernatorial races have no bearing on state partisanship, and it's been obvious since forever Northam's going to win.
That's why I am saying if Gillespie wins (he will) then it's going to put the Democrats into shock.
Snyder won Kalamazoo County, and not particularly narrowly, either. Baker won Hampden County, and not particularly narrowly, either. Justice won McDowell County, and not particularly narrowly, either. Gubernatorial races are not an indicator of if a place is red or blue or purple. And Northam was always going to win this. He's not Akin.
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Devils30
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« Reply #15 on: July 29, 2017, 10:01:58 pm »

Ohio is on the way to becoming the next Missouri....Georgia will be the next Virginia, it all evens out.
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« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2017, 01:35:37 pm »

it's always been a Republican-leaning state, but bellwethers come and go and 2016 was a pretty dramatic trend for a swing state. I think Ohio will lose its status sometime soon and go the way of Missouri (maybe not all the way), and Florida will be the successor
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« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2017, 01:55:30 pm »

Maybe. But Democrats don't need it so we will see in 2020 how Trump does.
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« Reply #18 on: August 03, 2017, 09:34:47 pm »

For the moment it seems that Obama's win there in 2012 may have been akin to George W. Bush's win in New Mexico in 2004; kind of a last hurrah from a state that has increasingly unfavourable demographics.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #19 on: August 03, 2017, 09:52:29 pm »

Maybe.

Reagan won Ohio by a larger margin than Trump in 1980 but Clinton came back to win it, '43 barely carried it in 2004, and Obama won it twice.

The difference now is gerrymandering. When Reagan was President, Ohio elected a Democratic governor twice. Democrats have only won the gubernatorial election once since the '80's. Gerrymandering with a surgical precision paired with forced term limits in the legislature -- which was a retaliation to a long-term Democratic speaker, Vern Riffe -- devastated the bench.

That weak bench, paired with national trends (loss of WWC voters, increasing reliance on the minority vote, and coastal elitism) hasn't helped. We may well finally lose our streak of voting for the winner come 2020, but we should remain a swing state in the future. Especially if TD's predicted alignment comes to bare.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20 on: August 03, 2017, 11:36:40 pm »

No....  both parties support has fluctuated between 46 % and 52% for the past five elections, starting in 2000.

Sure, Trump performed about 1% better as a Republican than George W. in '04, for the strongest performance a Republican has garnered since 1988.

What is clear is that Obama was especially popular for a Democratic Presidential Candidate in Ohio, achieving the highest % of support for a Democrat since 1964--- with a whopping 51.5% of the Vote....

I don't believe that the traditional swing voters of Ohio suddenly decided to become Republicans in 2016 in any massive numbers...

Trump's economic populist message resonated better than some other 'Pub candidates, but unless the dude delivers some goods, he's not going to get love from the 'hood.

Ohio's a very interesting state politically, as I learned living there for four years back in the Mid '90s, with arguably five or six distinct sub-regions, each with their own media markets and collective cultural and social identity.

Now, the problem for the Democrats is that the swing in most of these distinct regions favored the Republican candidate in '16, and this could potentially foreshadow Ohio returning back to a Lean Republican State, as it used to be for quite a few decades....

However, despite the Republican '16 swings in several key regions of the state, we have yet to see evidence of a sustained trend among these key swing voting regions of the State towards the Republican Party at a Presidential level.

An attempt to analyze the political geography of Ohio from a longer term historical timeline, for example starting in 1988 (Post Reagan landslide) might be in order, but as part of a rigorous effort that most precisely breaks the state down into it's key sub-components and looks at the compare-contrast and historical and demographic trending...

Still, even if Ohio is starting to Lean Republican (again!), which is debatable at this time, it certainly isn't anywhere close to become the next Missourri, simply because Trump garnered 1% more than of the vote than George W in '04, who came close to losing the state to John Kerry!

Atlas perspective break folks, and do we have any volunteers to undertake a scientific analysis of the "Six States of Ohio" over the past 28 years?   Gives you eight years of election data to work with, so could be a fun project for anyone interested....   Smiley



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AN63093
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« Reply #21 on: August 04, 2017, 03:07:22 pm »

What do you mean by the "next Missouri?"

If you just mean "former bellwether that is trending R," then sure, that's not only possible, but I would argue likely.  Interestingly, MO is still trending R too (moreso in '16 than '12, which was more than '08 before it), which suggests even it hasn't maxed out yet.

If you mean that OH will get anywhere close to the same margins as MO, then I think that's quite a bit less likely.  First, consider that Trump was, if not the perfect candidate for OH, probably the closest thing to it in my lifetime.

Second, while both states are some of the slowest growing states in the US, consider where the growth is.  The Columbus MSA is a fast growing metro with a new economy and anchored by a big 10 school (Ohio St).  OH also is more urban in general, with both the Cincinnati MSA (very slowly growing, and more R leaning, but still growing nonetheless and D in the urban core), and the Cleveland MSA (shrinking, but still the 32nd largest MSA in the US).  Not to mention there are a slew of other smaller metro areas, like Dayton (these are all shrinking, but added together they are still a sizeable sum, at least for now).

Compare to MO.  MO has a top 20 MSA in St Louis, but it is hanging on for dear life to keep from shrinking (its growth rate now is 0.69%).  The city itself is shrinking- at a slower rate than in the past, but still shrinking nonetheless, which tells me that the MSA still has a ways to fall- there is not enough millennial hipster types moving in that will balance out the aging Boomers in St Louis County (which is also shrinking, by the way).  Now compare to Columbus, which in the city proper has been hitting double digit growth every decade and is growing faster than other "cooler" cities like NY and Boston.  Columbus is a much more likely candidate for millennials to move to, once they get priced out of larger MSAs, than St Louis is.

MO does have KC, which is growing (much slower than Columbus, but still growing), and as a sidenote- KC is a severely underrated MSA in my opinion.  The city itself is growing at about the same rate as the greater MSA.  However, KC plus St Louis has not been enough to stop the R trend.  

So OH is just in a different place, in my opinion, in that it's more urban and has at least one large MSA (Columbus) that is rapidly growing and is attractive to millennials.  While OH does have MSAs that are shrinking, it's starting out from a much higher point (OH is almost twice as large as MO), and if even just one of its other MSAs can reverse the population decline, then the R trend may plateau.  Cleveland might be a lost cause, but look out for Cincinnati.  Its MSA is barely ticking up, but the city core itself is on pace to reverse a six decade downward trend and looks like it may start gaining again.  It could very well be the case that millennials have "discovered" Cincy.  I was just there the other day, and it has good "roots," so to speak- mature and interesting, walkable neighborhoods, with a "street scene" with the hipster type brunch places and so on (these characteristics probably the biggest thing millennials are looking for), it's centrally located and easy to get to a lot of places, it has light rail in the city center that is sorta puny but at least goes to the places you'd wanna go, it has some significant corporate employers like P&G, Kroger, Macys, GE.  

St Louis has some of these categories too, and don't get me wrong, I like St Louis- the Central West End is one of my favorite neighborhoods in the Mid-West.  But for whatever reason it has not been able to stop the people from leaving (although to be fair, the percentage of which it is declining is slowing... from -12.2% in 2000 to -8.3% in 2010, so maybe there will be a turnaround in the 2020s).
« Last Edit: August 04, 2017, 03:41:53 pm by AN63093 »Logged
RINO Tom
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« Reply #22 on: August 04, 2017, 03:46:52 pm »

People are acting like Ohio just became Republican leaning this year because these legions of former "WWC" Democrats have now become the bedrock of the state GOP, LOL.  Ohio has had a Republican lean for some time, only to be overcome by high turnout Presidential elections (in which it was still at the very best a swing state).  It has been more Republican than Democratic for a very long time.
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ossoff2028
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« Reply #23 on: August 04, 2017, 03:49:12 pm »

People are acting like Ohio just became Republican leaning this year because these legions of former "WWC" Democrats have now become the bedrock of the state GOP, LOL.  Ohio has had a Republican lean for some time, only to be overcome by high turnout Presidential elections (in which it was still at the very best a swing state).  It has been more Republican than Democratic for a very long time.
It was also very close to the national popular vote for a very long time. As of 2016, it has ceased to be so.
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« Reply #24 on: August 04, 2017, 04:19:54 pm »

Gubernatorial races have no bearing on state partisanship, and it's been obvious since forever Northam's going to win.
That's why I am saying if Gillespie wins (he will) then it's going to put the Democrats into shock.
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