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| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, Virginiá)
| | |-+  Is Ohio becoming the next Missouri?
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Poll
Question: Is Ohio the next Missouri?
Yes   -47 (38.8%)
No   -32 (26.4%)
Maybe   -39 (32.2%)
See results   -3 (2.5%)
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Total Voters: 121

Author Topic: Is Ohio becoming the next Missouri?  (Read 3963 times)
Fmr. Deputy Speaker Spark
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« Reply #25 on: August 04, 2017, 04:20:44 pm »

Possibly
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My Immortal
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #26 on: August 04, 2017, 04:24:52 pm »

Everywhere is flipping Republican except for right-wing suburbs in GA. Or so the DNC thinks.
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Beet
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« Reply #27 on: August 04, 2017, 04:41:50 pm »

Hard to believe this was less than a decade ago.

Img


Suffice it to say, some folks must've thought this was their "reward" for Obama:

Img


Until something like that happens in Ohio, no.
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This is Eharding, guys
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« Reply #28 on: August 04, 2017, 05:07:11 pm »

Beet, 2012 is two years before 2014.
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Kevin
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« Reply #29 on: August 04, 2017, 05:11:06 pm »

No....  both parties support has fluctuated between 46 % and 52% for the past five elections, starting in 2000.

Sure, Trump performed about 1% better as a Republican than George W. in '04, for the strongest performance a Republican has garnered since 1988.

What is clear is that Obama was especially popular for a Democratic Presidential Candidate in Ohio, achieving the highest % of support for a Democrat since 1964--- with a whopping 51.5% of the Vote....

I don't believe that the traditional swing voters of Ohio suddenly decided to become Republicans in 2016 in any massive numbers...

Trump's economic populist message resonated better than some other 'Pub candidates, but unless the dude delivers some goods, he's not going to get love from the 'hood.

Ohio's a very interesting state politically, as I learned living there for four years back in the Mid '90s, with arguably five or six distinct sub-regions, each with their own media markets and collective cultural and social identity.

Now, the problem for the Democrats is that the swing in most of these distinct regions favored the Republican candidate in '16, and this could potentially foreshadow Ohio returning back to a Lean Republican State, as it used to be for quite a few decades....

However, despite the Republican '16 swings in several key regions of the state, we have yet to see evidence of a sustained trend among these key swing voting regions of the State towards the Republican Party at a Presidential level.

An attempt to analyze the political geography of Ohio from a longer term historical timeline, for example starting in 1988 (Post Reagan landslide) might be in order, but as part of a rigorous effort that most precisely breaks the state down into it's key sub-components and looks at the compare-contrast and historical and demographic trending...

Still, even if Ohio is starting to Lean Republican (again!), which is debatable at this time, it certainly isn't anywhere close to become the next Missourri, simply because Trump garnered 1% more than of the vote than George W in '04, who came close to losing the state to John Kerry!

Atlas perspective break folks, and do we have any volunteers to undertake a scientific analysis of the "Six States of Ohio" over the past 28 years?   Gives you eight years of election data to work with, so could be a fun project for anyone interested....   Smiley





I agree with you,

Midwestern States like OH, IA, and to a lesser extent WI, MI/PA seem like places where the electorite was was very excited and supportive of Obama and are now feeling the same for Trump.

I thinl people should think less about these things in partisan terms and view states like Ohio as "Pro-Trump states" vs. somewhere like VA or CO which I would classify as "anti-Trump." I personally think a more generic Republican like Rubio prob would have won these(but not MI, PA, and maybe WI)

Ditto the same for say 1992 and 1996-I would have put states like MO, AR, LA, and TN" in the basket of "Pro-Clinton" not necessarily trending back towards the Democrats.

Also for the record I think other perspective GOP nominees this last cycle such as Rubio would have done less well in OH. While I think someone like JEB! or Cruz would have had a hard time carrying it(or any other Midwestern states for that matter).
« Last Edit: August 04, 2017, 08:21:06 pm by Kevin »Logged
NOVA Green
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« Reply #30 on: August 04, 2017, 10:14:15 pm »

People are acting like Ohio just became Republican leaning this year because these legions of former "WWC" Democrats have now become the bedrock of the state GOP, LOL.  Ohio has had a Republican lean for some time, only to be overcome by high turnout Presidential elections (in which it was still at the very best a swing state).  It has been more Republican than Democratic for a very long time.

This: Quoted for truth...

That being said, Obama's support levels in '08, and even more significantly in '12 are particularly noteworthy because of the massive deviation from the norm in both elections.

Atlas needs to quit thinking about Obama's strong performance in Ohio in '08/'12 as "the norm", but instead view it as a slight deviance from the norm.

Obama's performance does not appear to have been a transferable scenario to HRC running in many ways for the "3rd term of Obama".....

Still, I would not be surprised if Ohio swings back towards the Democratic nominee in 2020. People shouldn't forget that despite the margins, Trump barely captured 52% of voters in the great state of Ohio.
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Let Dogs Survive
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« Reply #31 on: August 04, 2017, 11:24:31 pm »

People are acting like Ohio just became Republican leaning this year because these legions of former "WWC" Democrats have now become the bedrock of the state GOP, LOL.  Ohio has had a Republican lean for some time, only to be overcome by high turnout Presidential elections (in which it was still at the very best a swing state).  It has been more Republican than Democratic for a very long time.

This: Quoted for truth...

That being said, Obama's support levels in '08, and even more significantly in '12 are particularly noteworthy because of the massive deviation from the norm in both elections.

Atlas needs to quit thinking about Obama's strong performance in Ohio in '08/'12 as "the norm", but instead view it as a slight deviance from the norm.

Obama's performance does not appear to have been a transferable scenario to HRC running in many ways for the "3rd term of Obama".....

Still, I would not be surprised if Ohio swings back towards the Democratic nominee in 2020. People shouldn't forget that despite the margins, Trump barely captured 52% of voters in the great state of Ohio.


You're forgetting Kerry in '04 too. When considering that AND Obama, kinda hard not to see why that was considered the norm.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #32 on: August 05, 2017, 12:44:56 am »

People are acting like Ohio just became Republican leaning this year because these legions of former "WWC" Democrats have now become the bedrock of the state GOP, LOL.  Ohio has had a Republican lean for some time, only to be overcome by high turnout Presidential elections (in which it was still at the very best a swing state).  It has been more Republican than Democratic for a very long time.

This: Quoted for truth...

That being said, Obama's support levels in '08, and even more significantly in '12 are particularly noteworthy because of the massive deviation from the norm in both elections.

Atlas needs to quit thinking about Obama's strong performance in Ohio in '08/'12 as "the norm", but instead view it as a slight deviance from the norm.

Obama's performance does not appear to have been a transferable scenario to HRC running in many ways for the "3rd term of Obama".....

Still, I would not be surprised if Ohio swings back towards the Democratic nominee in 2020. People shouldn't forget that despite the margins, Trump barely captured 52% of voters in the great state of Ohio.


You're forgetting Kerry in '04 too. When considering that AND Obama, kinda hard not to see why that was considered the norm.

Oh no---- I never forgot about Kerry '04. Wink

Sure there was both and swing and trend toward Kerry in '04, but still he lost the state by 2%, slightly lower than his national performance.

Interestingly enough, the biggest swings towards Obama  was in NW Ohio, as well as Metro Columbus, and Hamilton Coounty.

If you look at the biggest swings from '00 to '04 you see Kerry way outperforming Gore mainly in SE and NE Ohio, as well as to a slight extent in Toledo area (NW-OH) and Hamilton County.

The main reason that Kerry lost Ohio, was because of major under-performance in Hamilton County, and getting killed on the margins of neighboring "suburban" counties of Butler and Cleremont, not to mention a lackluster performance in Franklin County (Metro Columbus).

In retrospect, it's actually amazing how well Kerry performed in Ohio, especially in rural parts of the State in places like SE-OH along the Ohio River Valley, which is basically a working river where FDR and the New Deal, built the basic infrastructure of the region to tie agricultural and energy resources  to a key transportation and international Port way downstream once the Ohio River hits the Mississippi River, and the flows another 1,000 Miles downstream.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #33 on: August 05, 2017, 04:29:38 am »

Can't be determined until at least 2020, even more likely 2024. I think there is some chance that the Rust Belt in general trends more Republican with Illinois remaining the only solid blue state in the region. On the other hand, the Sun Belt increasingly trends Democratic, especially Georgia and Arizona (some development as in New Mexico). Texas may also be competative by the mid/late 2020s.
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« Reply #34 on: August 05, 2017, 03:36:02 pm »

People are acting like Ohio just became Republican leaning this year because these legions of former "WWC" Democrats have now become the bedrock of the state GOP, LOL.  Ohio has had a Republican lean for some time, only to be overcome by high turnout Presidential elections (in which it was still at the very best a swing state).  It has been more Republican than Democratic for a very long time.
It was also very close to the national popular vote for a very long time. As of 2016, it has ceased to be so.

I'm not convinced that other Republicans would carry the working class areas that Trump carried.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #35 on: August 08, 2017, 09:00:25 am »

People are acting like Ohio just became Republican leaning this year because these legions of former "WWC" Democrats have now become the bedrock of the state GOP, LOL.  Ohio has had a Republican lean for some time, only to be overcome by high turnout Presidential elections (in which it was still at the very best a swing state).  It has been more Republican than Democratic for a very long time.
It was also very close to the national popular vote for a very long time. As of 2016, it has ceased to be so.

I'm not convinced that other Republicans would carry the working class areas that Trump carried.

Other Republicans have won Ohio without them.
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whitesox130
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« Reply #36 on: August 08, 2017, 07:15:51 pm »

No, Iowa is.
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maga2020
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« Reply #37 on: August 09, 2017, 06:42:03 am »

Show me a path for democrats to win Ohio without the Mahoning valley.
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« Reply #38 on: August 09, 2017, 10:51:08 am »

Show me a path for democrats to win Ohio without the Mahoning valley.

There isn't one, but if they won Ohio, they'd win it.  They have won it before, they can again...?  Not hard stuff.
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« Reply #39 on: August 09, 2017, 02:49:51 pm »

No, Iowa is.

But Iowa always swings back and fourth. Bush lost it in 1988, then lost again, but by a smaller margin (only state he did better in vs 1988). Iowa always has weird trends, so I'm skeptical to say much about it.
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« Reply #40 on: August 09, 2017, 09:56:57 pm »

I'm surprised at how bad Hillary did in Indiana and Missouri; the former going for Obama in 2008 and the latter barely going for McCain.
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AGA
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« Reply #41 on: August 09, 2017, 11:03:32 pm »

It most likely is heading in that direction, but I don't think that the trend is as extreme as Missouri's has been. Remember that Ohio trended Democratic in 2004 and 2012 while Missouri has trended Republican in every election since 1996.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #42 on: January 07, 2019, 01:08:07 am »

I think the answer now to this is Yes and the person
To thank for this is Kasich and his amazing term in office
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« Reply #43 on: January 07, 2019, 03:12:44 pm »

No.
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Ohio more D than Texas
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« Reply #44 on: January 07, 2019, 04:04:14 pm »

I think the answer now to this is Yes and the person
To thank for this is Kasich and his amazing term in office
lol
Ohio Republicans always over-perform the state's PVI at the statewide level (except in 2006/2008 due to Bob Taft)
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WI is Safe D
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« Reply #45 on: January 08, 2019, 04:21:46 pm »

Fundamentally, Ohio is culturally and economically quite different from Missouri.  So, no.
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« Reply #46 on: January 10, 2019, 12:43:56 pm »

Missouri is 70.4% urban. Ohio is 77.9% urban. Both are 80% white. 37% of the Missouri electorate has a college degree. 33% of the Ohio electorate has a college degree.
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Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #47 on: January 10, 2019, 12:47:16 pm »

No. Even if the Rs completely swamp the state, the Ds have a floor that would stop a MO margin. And, unlike is MO where that floor is falling out due to urban decline, the OH urban areas are either stagnating(Toledo) or growing massively(Columbus).
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« Reply #48 on: January 10, 2019, 01:37:12 pm »

It most likely is heading in that direction, but I don't think that the trend is as extreme as Missouri's has been. Remember that Ohio trended Democratic in 2004 and 2012 while Missouri has trended Republican in every election since 1996.

Ohio voted more Republican this time than Missouri even did in 2004! And relative to the nation Ohio in 2016 was also more Republican than Missouri 2008.


Missouri shift was steady while it seems like Ohio lurched massively to the right in 4 years 
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« Reply #49 on: January 11, 2019, 11:45:01 am »

It most likely is heading in that direction, but I don't think that the trend is as extreme as Missouri's has been. Remember that Ohio trended Democratic in 2004 and 2012 while Missouri has trended Republican in every election since 1996.

Ohio voted more Republican this time than Missouri even did in 2004! And relative to the nation Ohio in 2016 was also more Republican than Missouri 2008.


Missouri shift was steady while it seems like Ohio lurched massively to the right in 4 years 

Exactly, Ohio has trended republican very fast, in 2012 the state was one point more republican than the rest of the country, in 2016 the state was ten points more republican than the rest of the country, in 2018 DeWine won by four and House Republicans still won the state congressional vote by a 47/52 margin, its clear that as of now Ohio is something like 10 points more republican than the country as whole. In my opinion Ohio is now a bit like Indiana and Missouri around 2010/2012, a state where the republican candidate is almost assured to win unless he is seriously damaged or doesn’t even try to win the race..
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