Is Ohio becoming the next Missouri?

[super6646]

I'm sure most of us are aware of the status Missouri once held as a state in elections. The races were always close, and it was the most reliable bellwether in the American elections It voted for the loser just once throughout the 20th century by an astounding 4000 votes in 1956 (also, 1900 isn't the 20th century). So the history was there, but the state starting trending towards the GOP in 2000 and 2004, and Obama ended up losing in 2008 by around 4000 votes (you see the connection there?). But keep in mind, he won the PV by 8 points, so there were signs it was losing its bellwether status. Then Romney easily wins in 2016, and Trump put it away by almost 20 points this time.

So a very rapid shift, but could Ohio be trending towards the GOP as well? I mean yes, Obama did win in 2012, but the shift this election was astounding. Now Trump did terrible in some of the bigger cities (when was the last time a republican won Ohio without Cincinnati?), but the rural areas and suburbs were all red, including the areas along the eastern part of the state. And the margin of victory was 8 points! Yes, Ohio usually tilts Republican, but by only tiny margins (2004 is an exception). Ohio was 10% more republican this time, and it wasn't as if Clinton did bad in places she needed to. So is Ohio going to lose its status as a swing-state, and ultimately as a bellwether in American elections? Or will it continue to retain the status of "As Ohio goes, so goes the nation"?

[super6646]

It might soon, but just to warn you, there's going to be an onslaught of comments of how one good result doesn't equal moving towards Republicans

I've been here for years (not as a registered user, but still), so I know what could happen. I have my arguments tucked away in case things start to get ugly.

[super6646]

I'm sure most of us are aware of the status Missouri once held as a state in elections. The races were always close, and it was the most reliable bellwether in the American elections. It voted for the loser just once throughout the 20th century by an astounding 4000 votes in 1956 (also, 1900 isn't the 20th century). So the history was there, but the state starting trending towards the GOP in 2000 and 2004, and Obama ended up losing in 2008 by around 4000 votes (you see the connection there?). But keep in mind, he won the PV by 8 points, so there were signs it was losing its bellwether status. Then Romney easily wins in 2016, and Trump put it away by almost 20 points this time.

So a very rapid shift, but could Ohio be trending towards the GOP as well? I mean yes, Obama did win in 2012, but the shift this election was astounding. Now Trump did terrible in some of the bigger cities (when was the last time a republican won Ohio without Cincinnati?), but the rural areas and suburbs were all red, including the areas along the eastern part of the state. And the margin of victory was 8 points! Yes, Ohio usually tilts Republican, but by only tiny margins (2004 is an exception). Ohio was 10% more republican this time, and it wasn't as if Clinton did bad in places she needed to. So is Ohio going to lose its status as a swing-state, and ultimately as a bellwether in American elections? Or will it continue to retain the status of "As Ohio goes, so goes the nation"?

[super6646]

No, Iowa is.

But Iowa always swings back and fourth. Bush lost it in 1988, then lost again, but by a smaller margin (only state he did better in vs 1988). Iowa always has weird trends, so I'm skeptical to say much about it.