IA-20/20 Insight (D): Reynolds +5 over Generic Democrat

[heatcharger]

Internal poll for Jim Mowrer.

Reynolds 44%
Generic Democrat 39%

SOS:

Mowrer (D) 38%
Pate (R, inc.) 33%

[Kamala]

This isn't awful. But not good, for an internal.

[Matty]

What happened after 2012 that made iowans more angry at democrats?

[TheSaint250]

This should be somewhat good news since many polls have the generic candidates beating the incumbent. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I'd say this is lean R

[Figueira]

Incumbent Governor is leading early polls, and will probably win. This shouldn't be a huge surprise.

Lean R.

[Kamala]

Is Reynolds guaranteed to advance through the primaries?

[GlobeSoc]

Reynolds-Pate=11
Generic Dem-Mowrer=1

Why are republicans having a larger downballot dropoff here compared to democrats?

[Rjjr77]

Reynolds-Pate=11
Generic Dem-Mowrer=1

Why are republicans having a larger downballot dropoff here compared to democrats?

It's an internal poll...

[maga2020]

What happened after 2012 that made iowans more angry at democrats?

The white working class sees daily on local news how miserable life in cities is, meanwhile, the democrats increasingly embrace cosmopolitanism, for years, they trusted democrats by larger levels than their equivalents on other states, since Obama went full blown liberal SJW supporting tougher gun control measures, more immigration, trans bathrooms, BLM, Iowa has turned its back on the democratic party, they finally followed suit and embraced the party that speaks to them and wants to save them from being run over by immigrants.

[Beet]

What happened after 2012 that made iowans more angry at democrats?

A fellow midwesterner was no longer on the ballot.

[heatcharger]

What happened after 2012 that made iowans more angry at democrats?

A lot of 'economic anxiety', as you can tell from our friend from the state.

[Dr. Arch]

What happened after 2012 that made iowans more angry at democrats?

The white working class sees daily on local news how miserable life in cities is, meanwhile, the democrats increasingly embrace cosmopolitanism, for years, they trusted democrats by larger levels than their equivalents on other states, since Obama went full blown liberal SJW supporting tougher gun control measures, more immigration, trans bathrooms, BLM, Iowa has turned its back on the democratic party, they finally followed suit and embraced the party that speaks to them and wants to save them from being run over by immigrants.

You are insane

This guy is worse than krazen.

[GlobeSoc]

What happened after 2012 that made iowans more angry at democrats?

The white working class sees daily on local news how miserable life in cities is, meanwhile, the democrats increasingly embrace cosmopolitanism, for years, they trusted democrats by larger levels than their equivalents on other states, since Obama went full blown liberal SJW supporting tougher gun control measures, more immigration, trans bathrooms, BLM, Iowa has turned its back on the democratic party, they finally followed suit and embraced the party that speaks to them and wants to save them from being run over by immigrants.

You are insane

This guy is worse than krazen.

[krazen1211]

What happened after 2012 that made iowans more angry at democrats?

White voters who had supported Democrats swung to the Republican Party.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What happened after 2012 that made iowans more angry at democrats?

(I attend college in Iowa)

The Dems really messed up with their anti-farmer 2014 campaign, and as for 2016, they ran the wrong sort of democrat. Iowa democrats are democrats because of climate/energy issues, education, and to a lesser extent ObamaCare - and either shrug at or are outright turned off by the LGBT SJW/"We Love Abortion!!!"/"Guns are evil!!" part of the democratic party, which was basically Hillary's entire campaign.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

What happened after 2012 that made iowans more angry at democrats?

The white working class sees daily on local news how miserable life in cities is, meanwhile, the democrats increasingly embrace cosmopolitanism, for years, they trusted democrats by larger levels than their equivalents on other states, since Obama went full blown liberal SJW supporting tougher gun control measures, more immigration, trans bathrooms, BLM, Iowa has turned its back on the democratic party, they finally followed suit and embraced the party that speaks to them and wants to save them from being run over by immigrants.

A lot of partisan loyalty for a hired gun.

[Coraxion]

What happened after 2012 that made iowans more angry at democrats?

A lot of 'economic anxiety', as you can tell from our friend from the state.

[KingSweden]

What happened after 2012 that made iowans more angry at democrats?

The white working class sees daily on local news how miserable life in cities is, meanwhile, the democrats increasingly embrace cosmopolitanism, for years, they trusted democrats by larger levels than their equivalents on other states, since Obama went full blown liberal SJW supporting tougher gun control measures, more immigration, trans bathrooms, BLM, Iowa has turned its back on the democratic party, they finally followed suit and embraced the party that speaks to them and wants to save them from being run over by immigrants.

You are insane

This guy is worse than krazen.

In fact we have evidence, since krazen's analysis is objectively true:

What happened after 2012 that made iowans more angry at democrats?

White voters who had supported Democrats swung to the Republican Party.

[KingSweden]

What happened after 2012 that made iowans more angry at democrats?

Wulfric made a good point that 2014 was a uniquely terrible cycle for Dems here. Braley's farmer comments were a death blow. Can't run a campaign that hostile to farming interests in a state like Iowa.

I also think Hillary was a uniquely terrible fit for Iowa. We'll see what happens after 2018

[MT Treasurer]

Lean/Likely R, but the downballot races are going to be interesting for sure.

[KingSweden]

Lean/Likely R, but the downballot races are going to be interesting for sure.

Quite interesting

[UncleSam]

Wtf lol Iowa right winger up there is spot on as to Trump's appeal to Iowa (and most of the WWC across the midwest), Democrats can keep calling people 'insane' if they like but it sure doesn't help their cause. Democrats are widely viewed as the party that spits on poor whites now and Iowa is filled with them.

That being said Iowa is very swingy still and if Democrats can fix their image problem then they can definitely compete at all levels in Iowa, I think Iowa is actually a lot more promising for Democrats then Ohio and possibly at an equal level to Wisconsin (100% sure someone is going to rail at me about that but you clearly don't understand the titanic shift since Title X in Wisconsin)  because Ohio and Wisconsin both have much higher GOP floors, whereas Iowa is filled with swing voters who, yes, lean heavily right as of now but could still be convinced to vote for the right Democrat (or even Democrats in general if they moderated on certain issues; never gonna happen over the state of Iowa obviously since they would then lose enthusiasm within the base, I'm just saying).

[KingSweden]

Lean/Likely R, but the downballot races are going to be interesting for sure.

Quite interesting

$10 says if Mowrer wins the SoS race he turns around and runs against Ernst in 2020. Seems to be a popular thing nowadays for newly elected statewide people.

That's a distinct possibility

Wtf lol Iowa right winger up there is spot on as to Trump's appeal to Iowa (and most of the WWC across the midwest), Democrats can keep calling people 'insane' if they like but it sure doesn't help their cause. Democrats are widely viewed as the party that spits on poor whites now and Iowa is filled with them.

That being said Iowa is very swingy still and if Democrats can fix their image problem then they can definitely compete at all levels in Iowa, I think Iowa is actually a lot more promising for Democrats then Ohio and possibly at an equal level to Wisconsin (100% sure someone is going to rail at me about that but you clearly don't understand the titanic shift since Title X in Wisconsin)  because Ohio and Wisconsin both have much higher GOP floors, whereas Iowa is filled with swing voters who, yes, lean heavily right as of now but could still be convinced to vote for the right Democrat (or even Democrats in general if they moderated on certain issues; never gonna happen over the state of Iowa obviously since they would then lose enthusiasm within the base, I'm just saying).

Normally I'd be skeptical of this, but I think you're onto something. Democrats seem much more engaged in Iowa heading into 2018 than in Wisconsin

[Holmes]

It's just a 5% lead over a new incumbent governor who should be in her honeymoon phase, y'all acting like Iowa is now Oklahoma lmao

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

It's just a 5% lead over a new incumbent governor who should be in her honeymoon phase, y'all acting like Iowa is now Oklahoma lmao

Atlas wants to believe that Minnesota is going to be a safe R state in 2032 because reasons.