Do you think polarization continues on after 2030 or not?

[Skill and Chance]

Neither. I think the Democrats will eventually become a permanent majority - not entirely because of demographics, but because the GOP base is batsh**t insane and won't vote for any moderate candidates who would moderate the party in primaries.

The same could've been said in September 1989 about the Democrats. The Dems were too liberal, stuck in an obsolote ideology (New Dealism), and kept putting up crap candidates in presidential elections. Not to mention the GOP got 400+ EV's in the past three elections and GHWB's approval ratings were in the 70s at this point. Things find a way to change.

I really can't understand for the life of me how people believe this permanent majority is going to happen, especially in this era. We've gone through 49-state landslides and 500+ EV wins that didn't manage to kill the opposite party, yet somehow this era is going to permanently destroy the Republican Party. Where is the evidence for this? I understand people love to bring up the fact that Republicans have only won the popular vote once in the last seven elections, but HRC only won 48% last year.  Not to mention that Republicans ACTUALLY WON in 2010, 2014, and 2016.

I guess my question is where is this massive Democratic mandate hiding, and why doesn't it seem to come to fruition on Election Days?

No party got a majority of the PV in 4 of the past 7 elections.  That seems like the most salient observation about our political era, though it is often ignored.  Historically, the best comparison is the late 19th century IMO.

As for the title question, probably yes, but it will be more that Republicans become very dominant in the Senate and Democrats become very dominant in the House, particularly after the next redistricting (they may still narrowly win it next year).  Presidential races will continue to be close most of the time.  The Republican EC advantage is very dependent on the AZ/FL/GA/NC group of states where they could suddenly be on thin ice.  I doubt it will last beyond the mid-2020's.

[dw93]

I could see something like this:

2020: Dems win the WH, both branches of congress, the economic left rises
2022: Dems hold the House with a much friendlier map
2024: Popular D incumbent wins re-election easily, with a 1984 feel.
2026: GOP makes gains in congress, both houses very close.
2028: GOP wins the entire midwest outside Illinois (MN, MI, WI, PA) and takes ME, NH but suffers a defeat due to Democratic victories in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
2030s: GOP realizes they cannot win without changes and begins attracting educated professionals disenchanted with the economic left

I think this'll be the case. This last election will prove to be the  Republican version of 1976 (minus the Popular vote going to the losing candidate) and 2020 will prove to be the Democratic equivalent to 1980.

[NHI]

I could see something like this:

2020: Dems win the WH, both branches of congress, the economic left rises
2022: Dems hold the House with a much friendlier map
2024: Popular D incumbent wins re-election easily, with a 1984 feel.
2026: GOP makes gains in congress, both houses very close.
2028: GOP wins the entire midwest outside Illinois (MN, MI, WI, PA) and takes ME, NH but suffers a defeat due to Democratic victories in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
2030s: GOP realizes they cannot win without changes and begins attracting educated professionals disenchanted with the economic left

I think this'll be the case. This last election will prove to be the  Republican version of 1976 (minus the Popular vote going to the losing candidate) and 2020 will prove to be the Democratic equivalent to 1980.

[Skill and Chance]

I could see something like this:

2020: Dems win the WH, both branches of congress, the economic left rises
2022: Dems hold the House with a much friendlier map
2024: Popular D incumbent wins re-election easily, with a 1984 feel.
2026: GOP makes gains in congress, both houses very close.
2028: GOP wins the entire midwest outside Illinois (MN, MI, WI, PA) and takes ME, NH but suffers a defeat due to Democratic victories in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
2030s: GOP realizes they cannot win without changes and begins attracting educated professionals disenchanted with the economic left

I think this'll be the case. This last election will prove to be the  Republican version of 1976 (minus the Popular vote going to the losing candidate) and 2020 will prove to be the Democratic equivalent to 1980.

This is the most likely scenario assuming we go into a recession before the 2020 election (at a year or more into his term, we should be past the point where Trump can successfully blame the recession on Obama).  The ideological left would be very potent in such an environment.

If we don't go into a recession until after 2020, I expect Trump to keep tacking to the center and win the PV by 1.5-3% in 2020 by cutting further into the Dem margin with working class minorities.  It's almost a given that there will be a significant recession by 2024, so I would expect a Dem win then.  In this scenario, they would probably focus on consolidating the suburbs and the yuppies and winning over the neocons by getting more hawkish (people underestimate how much this would help in the Sunbelt) and less ideological in general.

[dw93]

I could see something like this:

2020: Dems win the WH, both branches of congress, the economic left rises
2022: Dems hold the House with a much friendlier map
2024: Popular D incumbent wins re-election easily, with a 1984 feel.
2026: GOP makes gains in congress, both houses very close.
2028: GOP wins the entire midwest outside Illinois (MN, MI, WI, PA) and takes ME, NH but suffers a defeat due to Democratic victories in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
2030s: GOP realizes they cannot win without changes and begins attracting educated professionals disenchanted with the economic left

I think this'll be the case. This last election will prove to be the  Republican version of 1976 (minus the Popular vote going to the losing candidate) and 2020 will prove to be the Democratic equivalent to 1980.

...  In this scenario, they would probably focus on consolidating the suburbs and the yuppies and winning over the neocons by getting more hawkish (people underestimate how much this would help in the Sunbelt) and less ideological in general.

If the Dems did this after two terms of Trump, I would have no choice but to leave the Democratic Party, become an independent, and vote third party. The GOP can have the Yuppies and the Neo Cons.

[Skill and Chance]

I could see something like this:

2020: Dems win the WH, both branches of congress, the economic left rises
2022: Dems hold the House with a much friendlier map
2024: Popular D incumbent wins re-election easily, with a 1984 feel.
2026: GOP makes gains in congress, both houses very close.
2028: GOP wins the entire midwest outside Illinois (MN, MI, WI, PA) and takes ME, NH but suffers a defeat due to Democratic victories in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
2030s: GOP realizes they cannot win without changes and begins attracting educated professionals disenchanted with the economic left

I think this'll be the case. This last election will prove to be the  Republican version of 1976 (minus the Popular vote going to the losing candidate) and 2020 will prove to be the Democratic equivalent to 1980.

...  In this scenario, they would probably focus on consolidating the suburbs and the yuppies and winning over the neocons by getting more hawkish (people underestimate how much this would help in the Sunbelt) and less ideological in general.

If the Dems did this after two terms of Trump, I would have no choice but to leave the Democratic Party, become an independent, and vote third party. The GOP can have the Yuppies and the Neo Cons.

Well, they can either get more economically populist and dovish or get more economically libertarian and hawkish.  Right now, they are clearly trying the former for 2018 and 2020.  If it works, great.  If it doesn't, they should try the latter.  Think of it as a win everyone who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 strategy.

[dw93]

I could see something like this:

2020: Dems win the WH, both branches of congress, the economic left rises
2022: Dems hold the House with a much friendlier map
2024: Popular D incumbent wins re-election easily, with a 1984 feel.
2026: GOP makes gains in congress, both houses very close.
2028: GOP wins the entire midwest outside Illinois (MN, MI, WI, PA) and takes ME, NH but suffers a defeat due to Democratic victories in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
2030s: GOP realizes they cannot win without changes and begins attracting educated professionals disenchanted with the economic left

I think this'll be the case. This last election will prove to be the  Republican version of 1976 (minus the Popular vote going to the losing candidate) and 2020 will prove to be the Democratic equivalent to 1980.

...  In this scenario, they would probably focus on consolidating the suburbs and the yuppies and winning over the neocons by getting more hawkish (people underestimate how much this would help in the Sunbelt) and less ideological in general.

If the Dems did this after two terms of Trump, I would have no choice but to leave the Democratic Party, become an independent, and vote third party. The GOP can have the Yuppies and the Neo Cons.

Well, they can either get more economically populist and dovish or get more economically libertarian and hawkish.  Right now, they are clearly trying the former for 2018 and 2020.  If it works, great.  If it doesn't, they should try the latter.  Think of it as a win everyone who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 strategy.

If Trump is re elected and the later happens, we're in for some dark days in the 2020s, 2030s, and beyond. A Nationalist, Trumpist GOP vs a Democratic Party that resembles the Republican party of the 1980s-2000s would be like choosing between getting crapped on or puked on.