North Korea Mega Thread

[KingSweden]

Per Business Insider - Stephen Cha, a former Asia policy expert for the GWB NSC, will be appointed Ambassador to the ROK. An outstanding choice.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

There's a line in the show "Last Resort" (one season, ABC) that you have to make them think "You're just crazy enough (that you might launch nukes)".  This is what Trump is doing, essentially.  And really, the opinion from the left just helps his strategy because lil' Kim over there has to be thinking daily about if Trump is a crazy enough SOB to launch at them.

I sure hope Trump isn’t cribbing foreign policy strategy from Last Resort...

*For those who didn’t see Last Resort (everyone): While Daveav is comparing Trump to Andre Braugher’s submarine captain character, suffice to say the more obvious comparison would be to the insane President who in the pilot episode randomly nukes Pakistan for no reason other than to basically #MAGA.

More I'm saying Trump could go either direction.  One is smart, one is crazy.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

There's a line in the show "Last Resort" (one season, ABC) that you have to make them think "You're just crazy enough (that you might launch nukes)".  This is what Trump is doing, essentially.  And really, the opinion from the left just helps his strategy because lil' Kim over there has to be thinking daily about if Trump is a crazy enough SOB to launch at them.

So just like Trump, you'd set national strategic nuclear policy based on what you saw on TV?

Just trying to show some insight to a thought process.  This is basic human nature: if you make yourself seem crazier than the other guy; they are less likely to mess with you.

So you're an advocate of Nixon's "Madman Theory," I presume?

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

There's a line in the show "Last Resort" (one season, ABC) that you have to make them think "You're just crazy enough (that you might launch nukes)".  This is what Trump is doing, essentially.  And really, the opinion from the left just helps his strategy because lil' Kim over there has to be thinking daily about if Trump is a crazy enough SOB to launch at them.

So just like Trump, you'd set national strategic nuclear policy based on what you saw on TV?

Just trying to show some insight to a thought process.  This is basic human nature: if you make yourself seem crazier than the other guy; they are less likely to mess with you.

So you're an advocate of Nixon's "Madman Theory," I presume?

If it works, sure. It worked for my dad growing up on the South Side of Chicago.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm increasingly convinced the only way out is to just bribe Kim and the entire leadership out of the country (with lifelong immunity) and let a puppet of the Chinese run the place to force through some Dengism. Not a very elegant solution for many reasons (criminals getting off scot free, Dengism is still awful, Chinese get their way) but better than this.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

also lol at King Lear's runaway proliferation solution. Surely it would be an awesome idea for every unstable regime with threatened leaders to get their hands on a few nukes!

[King Lear]

also lol at King Lear's runaway proliferation solution. Surely it would be an awesome idea for every unstable regime with threatened leaders to get their hands on a few nukes!

You’re totally missing the point, countries with the most unstable leaders (usually in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America) would not have the technological know how to produce deliverable nuclear weapons on their own. However a common misconception promoted by Warmongers and their media allies is that the leadership of North Korea and Iran is “unstable” the truth is unstable regimes do not stay in power for almost 70 years as is the case for North Korea or for almost 40 years as is the case for Iran. Both countries are ruled by politically savvy leaders that may make big threats to rally support in the homeland but know they have no ability to carry out these threats and if they could it would mean the end of their regimes. Finally for those worried that these countries will give nuclear weapons to terrorist if their allowed to develop them fear not for two important reasons, first North Korea is struggling to miniaturize a warhead that could fit on a missile and Iran has showed no ability to Evan build one meaning the ability of either country to build weapons that could be given to terrorist (the so called “back pack nukes” that were only developed by Russia and America and probably don’t exist any more outside of cheesy Hollywood movies)
Is fictitious at best, and lastly why would a crafty self-preserving regime like Iran or North Korea want these hypothetical weapons floating around the black market were they in the case of Iran could be used aganst them by their Sunni Muslim enemies (Al-qeada, ISIS, and Saudi Arabia) or In the case of North Korea by disgruntled members of their government (relatives of purged officials) and any of these weapons hypothetically used by terrorist aganst the United States would be easily traced to the source and lead to the destruction of their countries which is the last thing a crafty self-preserving regime that’s been in power for 70 or 40 years would want.

[King Lear]

And now the WH and Nauert at State are walking back Rex's statement on talks... https://in.reuters.com/article/northkorea-missiles-usa/despite-tillerson-overture-white-house-says-not-right-time-for-north-korea-talks-idINKBN1E730B

They must stop tests, behave, etc. Not going to happen. War is inevitable if talks or overtures don't happen and ICBM tests continue, which they will.

Your a warmonger, North Korea is no threat to the United States and even if they get Nuclear-capable ICBMs (highly unlikely), who cares, they would never use them against us because it would mean the end of their country. Russia has had hundreds of real Nuclear-capable ICBMs pointed at the United States for decades and they haven't vaporized our country and probably never will unless we do something really stupid.

[BudgieForce]

On second thought, not going to explain further since you have already made up your mind. Welcome to ignore, King Lear.

I mean, you seem very certain about an upcoming war with North Korea.

[emailking]

You have to think like Trump here and not regular international relations thought. I don't want it nor do I think it is helpful and it could very well drag China in, but Trump's stance is denial, not Cold War style containment.

I don't know if you're going to think I'm a troll or whatever, but I doubt Trump has any intention of launching an attack against North Korea if they do not attack anyone. None of us is in his head, so we don't really know. But I think he's just trying to scare them into submission, or freak out China to the point that they try to handle it somehow. Yes, war is probably a lot more likely with Trump than with maybe anyone else that was running for President, but I still think it's really unlikely. I think what will end up happening is they get their nukes, missiles, capabilities etc, and we all just live with it. Trump will fold.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lindsey Graham says there's a 30% chance US will strike NK, rising to 70% if they conduct another nuclear test: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/12/lindsey-graham-war-north-korea-trump/548381/

[KingSweden]

Lindsey Graham says there's a 30% chance US will strike NK, rising to 70% if they conduct another nuclear test: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/12/lindsey-graham-war-north-korea-trump/548381/

Missile or nuclear?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lindsey Graham says there's a 30% chance US will strike NK, rising to 70% if they conduct another nuclear test: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/12/lindsey-graham-war-north-korea-trump/548381/

Missile or nuclear?

Nuclear.  The full quote is:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[forgotten manatee]

Lindsey Graham says there's a 30% chance US will strike NK, rising to 70% if they conduct another nuclear test:

Missile or nuclear?

Nuclear.  The full quote is:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Graham is a worthless chicken hawk who likes to talk out of his ass. I wouldn't lend him the least amount of credibility on knowing the administration's thinking.

That's not to say that conflict with the DPRK can't happen, I just refuse to trust or take seriously anything said by Lindsey Graham.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Lindsey Graham says there's a 30% chance US will strike NK, rising to 70% if they conduct another nuclear test:

Missile or nuclear?

Nuclear.  The full quote is:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Graham is a worthless chicken hawk who likes to talk out of his ass. I wouldn't lend him the least amount of credibility on knowing the administration's thinking.

That's not to say that conflict with the DPRK can't happen, I just refuse to trust or take seriously anything said by Lindsey Graham.

He said he got this gist of this when talking NK with Trump when he played golf with him the other day. I would think that lend Graham some credibility here.

If you think things Trump says add credibility to anything, your analytical skills are much worse than I thought.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Lindsey Graham says there's a 30% chance US will strike NK, rising to 70% if they conduct another nuclear test:

Missile or nuclear?

Nuclear.  The full quote is:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Graham is a worthless chicken hawk who likes to talk out of his ass. I wouldn't lend him the least amount of credibility on knowing the administration's thinking.

That's not to say that conflict with the DPRK can't happen, I just refuse to trust or take seriously anything said by Lindsey Graham.

He said he got this gist of this when talking NK with Trump when he played golf with him the other day. I would think that lend Graham some credibility here.

If you think things Trump says add credibility to anything, your analytical skills are much worse than I thought.

What grown men say to each other in private is much more accurate than what is put out after the fact in political comments, etc. History bears this out re behind the scenes discussions of policy with past presidents. If Graham discussed this with Trump, it isn't that far of a stretch to believe that it is what Trump also believes.

I don't disagree with your general statement about private comments. (Look at what we know of Hillary's private discussions for example.) Where I disagree with you is the presumption that Trump has ANY coherent mental model of ANYTHING, much less the relations between North Korea and the United States. Trump does not have plans. He has grudges, whims, fits and a desperate, desperate need for flattery and validation.

In short, there is no there there for Graham to convey information about.

Also, there's this https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/tillerson-offers-olive-branch-to-north-korea-if-it-abandons-nuclear-weapons/2017/12/15/06b4fce4-e198-11e7-bbd0-9dfb2e37492a_story.html Pushing back against he sitting SecState by the WH over attempts at diplomacy. What does that tell you? It doesn't give me dovish vibes, only that Trump is taking hawkish stances on this.

It tells me that Trump is an impolitic egomaniac who is alienated from his Secretary of State, and that he is far too incompetent as a politician and executive to handle that.



I think war with North Korea is a real possibility, but if it happens it will be for one of two reasons. Either gross provocation by the North Koreans that forces the US government, not Trump, to act, or Trump will launch a war on a fit or a whim and no one stops him.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lindsey Graham says there's a 30% chance US will strike NK, rising to 70% if they conduct another nuclear test: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/12/lindsey-graham-war-north-korea-trump/548381/

Missile or nuclear?

Nuclear.  The full quote is:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That quote doesn't  necessarily imply the US will use nuclear missiles though?  All it says that is that as a result of DPRK testing another nuclear weapon, their is a strong chance of a military response; that could be conventional.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lindsey Graham says there's a 30% chance US will strike NK, rising to 70% if they conduct another nuclear test: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/12/lindsey-graham-war-north-korea-trump/548381/

Missile or nuclear?

Nuclear.  The full quote is:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That quote doesn't  necessarily imply the US will use nuclear missiles though?  All it says that is that as a result of DPRK testing another nuclear weapon, their is a strong chance of a military response; that could be conventional.

That's how I interpret it.  He's saying that if NK tests another nuke, there's a 70% chance that the US will respond with some (unspecified) military option.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, I think the US would go conventional, at least at first. The post-Hiroshima/Nagasaki taboo is pretty strong after all.

[Beet]

Yeah, I think the US would go conventional, at least at first. The post-Hiroshima/Nagasaki taboo is pretty strong after all.

Hiroshima and Nagasaki would both get re-nuked anyway since they house U.S. bases.

[KingSweden]

Update:

NK now working on anthrax/other bio agent ICBMs https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/12/20/report-north-korea-now-testing-biological-weapon-anthrax-on-icbms/23313045/

--

Def not a good thing.

This may be a redline for China... saw some interesting tweets about the PRC building six lane highways toward the DPRK border in recent months

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Update:

NK now working on anthrax/other bio agent ICBMs https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/12/20/report-north-korea-now-testing-biological-weapon-anthrax-on-icbms/23313045/

--

Def not a good thing.

As long as they're not loading them with psychopathic con artists reality tv show hosts, I think the world will manage.

[King Lear]

Update:

NK now working on anthrax/other bio agent ICBMs https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/12/20/report-north-korea-now-testing-biological-weapon-anthrax-on-icbms/23313045/

--

Def not a good thing.

This is BS promoted by the US government and their accomplices in the western media, this is the same crap Bush made up about Iraq in 2003, when they realized they couldn't convince people the nuclear threat was real they started trying to scare people with "Anthrax". I saw a report in the news a couple days ago that even the secretary of defense Mattis dosant believe North Koreas "ICBM" posed any threat to the United States, I said that several days ago and everyone called me a troll. It's so odvious this administration wants a big war with either North Korea of Iran to shoot his approval rating up to 60% and assure the republicans blow out the democrats next year. Personally, I don't get why they think they need a war to do that because Knowing the democrats track record they'll probably get blown out next year without a war.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Update:

NK now working on anthrax/other bio agent ICBMs https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/12/20/report-north-korea-now-testing-biological-weapon-anthrax-on-icbms/23313045/

--

Def not a good thing.

This is BS promoted by the US government and their accomplices in the western media, this is the same crap Bush made up about Iraq in 2003, when they realized they couldn't convince people the nuclear threat was real they started trying to scare people with "Anthrax". I saw a report in the news a couple days ago that even the secretary of defense Mattis dosant believe North Koreas "ICBM" posed any threat to the United States, I said that several days ago and everyone called me a troll. It's so odvious this administration wants a big war with either North Korea of Iran to shoot his approval rating up to 60% and assure the republicans blow out the democrats next year. Personally, I don't get why they think they need a war to do that because Knowing the democrats track record they'll probably get blown out next year without a war.

They may tell each other that it's about approval ratings and beting the Dems. But really, we all know it's really about compensating their own personal inadequacies (especially Trump's).



P.S. I mean his draft dodging and personal cowardice, obviously.

[pbrower2a]

Well, looks like Japan might change its constitution thanks to North Korea's missile program.

In the 1980s, Japan threatened to start  developing nuclear weapons in the event that North Korea did. Neither China nor the Soviet Union protested, even though both were opposed to nuclear proliferation. I'm guessing that the Japanese would have bought Soviet nukes or hired Soviet nuclear scientists.

The Soviet Union and China put an end to any North Korean nuke program.