North Korea Mega Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's something that'll lighten up the mood (it'll do the exact opposite):

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/31/politics/north-korea-ejection-test-submarine-activity/index.html

So now even their sub tech is getting better.

I have to admit, that article really is terrifying:

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Given Trump's track record, the only question is how bad he'll fumble it.

It shows how low the bar has gotten when "not getting into nuclear war" would be one of this administration's top achievements.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mods: Petition for this to become a "Updates on North Korea" sticky thread. It would be easier than having 100 threads on the same thing, just different launches, etc.

x VM

Seconded.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The US has drafted a resolution in the UN Security Council that would impose severe economic penalties on North Korea, amounting to a one-third cut in its export revenue.

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The resolution will be voted on tomorrow afternoon and requires at least 9 yes votes from the 15-member council for approval, along with no vetoes from any of the five veto powers (US, UK, France, Russia, and China).

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Security Council has approved the US-proposed sanctions by unanimous vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone actually believe North Korea would attack us?

A rational power wouldn't attack.  Kim is irrational enough to inject some doubt.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oh Christ I'm going to be sick

Don't panic.  At present this is just talk.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Could everyone please take a deep breath and calm down?  The world is not on the brink of nuclear war.  Yes, sabers are being rattled.  That's happened many times before, and it's a long way from actual warfare.  We've been much, much closer to the brink than this.

(FWIW: I remember air raid drills in school during the Cuban Missile Crisis; my school actually had its own shelter.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Posted 1 hour ago

 Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump  1 hour ago
 My first order as President was to renovate and modernize our nuclear arsenal. It is now far stronger and more powerful than ever before....

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump  1 hour ago
 ...Hopefully we will never have to use this power, but there will never be a time that we are not the most powerful nation in the world!

You don't renovate and modernize a nuclear arsenal in a matter of months.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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If he's trying to get America nuked he should just keep on doing what he's doing.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/10/politics/trump-north-korea/index.html

Well you should never rule out anything, even a pre-emotive strike, if intelligence suggests it would save Americans. Hopefully it doesn't happen but it could.

Everything Trump does is emotive. 

(I know you meant preemptive, but "emotive" is a good one here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I still want to hope that Trump is smart enough to realise what the consequences would be of a strike, but now I'm not so sure...

Based on performance to date, any statement that starts "I hope Trump is smart enough..." is probably wishful thinking.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just wondering, if the US government changes the DEFCON level, does it become public knowledge?

No.

[GeorgiaModerate]

US Intelligence: North Korea's ICBM Reentry Vehicles Are Likely Good Enough to Hit the Continental US

[GeorgiaModerate]

US Pacific Command says there were three launches.  The 1st and 3rd failed in flight, while the 2nd blew up immediately after launch.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

War in three months, China intervenes in 6 months,  Armageddon in 9 months.

Maybe, no and no.

I've got money on all three. Trump will end the world simply to satiate his own ego.

But how will you collect if you're right?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another ICBM and potentially another nuke test inbound http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/05/asia/north-korea-icbm/index.html

I guess there's not enough news happening today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyone else think Nikki Haley should be Secretary of State instead of Tillerson?

I think she'd be a much better fit for the job.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyone else think Nikki Haley should be Secretary of State instead of Tillerson?

I think she'd be a much better fit for the job.

Why? She's more neoconish. What would she do differently than Tillerson?

Because she's experienced in government and seems like a capable administrator.  Tillerson clearly is not and is letting the State Department go to hell, during a world situation when we really need it to be functioning well.  I think Haley would run the department much better. 

In terms of foreign policy?  Yeah, probably not much difference.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Good opinion piece on NK by former Sec. of Energy Ernest Moniz and former Sen. Sam Nunn: http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/29/opinions/us-korea-diplomacy-talks-moniz-nunn-opinion/index.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good article by a reporter on his trip to NK, observations, etc. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/opinion/sunday/nuclear-north-korea.html

A prediction of an October 9th test by Yong Suk Lee, deputy assistant director of the CIA's Korea Mission Center: https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2017-10-04/cia-official-predicts-north-korean-provocation-on-columbus-day

If this test occurs it would be the morning of the 10th in the US or late on the 10th if they test a day late due to the 12 and half hour time zone difference (using US EST).

Wouldn't it be the other way around? NK is 8.5 hours ahead of GMT, so late on the 9th in the US would be the morning of the 10th in NK.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tillerson: "Diplomacy will continue 'until the first bomb drops'" http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/15/politics/rex-tillerson-north-korea-cnntv/index.html

Heartening and disheartening all in one sentence. It is telling that he wants to continue diplomatic efforts but the "until the first bomb drops" bit gave it away that he is being drug into a hawkish option.

This could just mean that we'll continue diplomatic efforts unless/until NK starts a shooting war.  But it could also be construed as saying that we'll continue talking, but unless you give in to our demands (e.g. denuclearization) we're going to bomb.  As others have pointed out, NK is never going to agree to that, so this doesn't provide much incentive for them to negotiate.

Ambiguity in diplomacy is not a good thing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sanctions don't do much to stop this cash flow:

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