North Korea Mega Thread

[BudgieForce]

U.S. PREPARED TO LAUNCH ‘PREVENTIVE WAR’ AGAINST NORTH KOREA, SAYS H.R. MCMASTER

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Thats not news. Im sure both the Bush and Obama administrations have had plans in case North Korea threatened the mainland with Nukes.

[BudgieForce]

There are no good options.

[BudgieForce]

We seem to have two options, either a hot war or a cold war. With North Korea, we either act now or we never act.

[BudgieForce]

Maybe Democrats will seize the opportunity and pretend to be the anti-war party again.

If they do this, they have very little to stand on. NK is a very real and present danger to East Asia and the US. It's not Iraq or tribal Taliban in Afghan. If they go dovish on NK, they will be seen as placaters in the worst way, even more than the mid to late 2000s.

No one wants to be responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of South Koreans and endanger the 30,000 troops we have stationed there.

[BudgieForce]

Its far too late to be planning a preventive war. As much as we hate it, the status quo seems like the best option. Let North Korea wall themselves off with nukes if it saves Seoul IMO.

[BudgieForce]

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lol.

Again, good luck walking back that rhetoric, Mr. President.

Excuse me?

[BudgieForce]

This board is literally insane right now. North Korean is threatening Americans and you shameless people are still complaining about trump

They're threatening Americans because of Trump...

[BudgieForce]

This board is literally insane right now. North Korean is threatening Americans and you shameless people are still complaining about trump

They're threatening Americans because of Trump...

Holy crap I am out of here for the time being. Just shut up you partisan hack. For 2 years we have sat by and let NK develop dangerous weapons and when they start threatening us it's because of trump?

This hours simply can't function as a news source when it is populated by people who are party hacks

No you dummy. Trump threatened North Korea with a nuclear attack so North Korea threatened Guam.

[BudgieForce]

They wouldn't strike Guam itself, but the statement said they would consider hitting the waters around Guam as a warning. That's also a crucial distinction that's not being made in a lot of the reporting. The point is we're currently in a cycle of escalation and it's something that has to be broken.

Would they strike in international waters or in Guam's waters?

Would it matter? Not legally, necessarily, but that's a serious provocation

I was just trying to think about the limits of an attack back against NJ

Hasnt New Jersey suffered enough!?   /s

[BudgieForce]

Could everyone please take a deep breath and calm down?  The world is not on the brink of nuclear war.  Yes, sabers are being rattled.  That's happened many times before, and it's a long way from actual warfare.  We've been much, much closer to the brink than this.

(FWIW: I remember air raid drills in school during the Cuban Missile Crisis; my school actually had its own shelter.)

VirginiaModerate has been telling us war is almost inevitable. Its hard to determine a good medium of freak out right now.

[BudgieForce]

A lot of the posts on here are wrong from a tactical perspective. Btw, the effort to remove the nuclear capability from Trump (CINC) is blatantly unconstitutional and wrong from a strategic standpoint. If on the offchance that DC is nuked, Trump would have advance warning and evac/get in the PEOC, but many in Congress would not have that option. The president MUST ALWAYS have an unlimited, unquestioned authority over the military for rapid response in times of crisis, Trump included, even as I disagree with Trump on many things he still is CINC.

In terms of the naval side of things, if anyone would like better links or insight, I can reply if you want, but I can't post a lot of things. I can field basic questions if you would like, since there are very few vets on Atlas.

As I said, I hope this doesn't go down, but it is looking increasingly likely.

Relevant: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08/08/us-air-force-jets-take-off-from-guam-for-training-ensuring-can-fight-tonight.html

Also to the folks that replied it would take a long time, etc., it really wouldn't. It would take an order from CINC, flight time, missile time, naval asset ONSTA (on station) time. See above.

The fear mongering is unhelpful. I have yet to see any expert on foreign policy say war is likely.

[BudgieForce]

Reading the comments from the State Department presser on DPRK, Trump loyalists love the fiery rhetoric. 

Nobody else does.

[BudgieForce]

I dont get it. There is nothing to gain from striking Guam. Its not even all that militarily important anymore due to the South Korean and Japanese bases. Ignoring that, why does North Korea think they can actually warn The United States. Thats like Denmark warning Germany.

[BudgieForce]

World war 3......better start stocking up.

Even if this does escalate(which it wont), it wouldnt be world war 3. Chill.

[BudgieForce]

North Korea once again threatened to fire missiles at Guam, this time they threatened to fire 4 near Guam.

Are they suicidal?

Yes and they literally do not give a f about international law or threats by the US to retaliate. NK is the Leeroy Jenkins of nation states.

If they were suicidal, they'd just fire at Guam with no warning. The repeated warnings and specific details given about the plans suggest they want us to know what it is if/when it happens. As for why Guam... they seem very threatened by the live-fire exercises of the two B1-B bombers, which were deployed in July. Typically our position is that military exercises are defensive, but these have been simulating the destruction of enemy missile launchers and underground facilities, which could equally be defensive or offensive.

We literally do those drills every year with air and naval forces. This is the first time NK has put out a statement with exact targeting.

Probably has more to do with Trump's rhetoric than anything else.

[BudgieForce]

I think at this point, we should just ignore what Trump says on the subject of North Korea. He's obviously making statements off the cuff.

[BudgieForce]

Its basically a new asian cold war. If North Korea makes a move, they'll loose China and any war they fight. If the United States makes a move, it means fighting both North Korea and China. So neither party is going to move. Trump hopefully wont because hes surrounded by Generals who know better. North Korea wont because Kim Jung Un's sole goal is survival.

[BudgieForce]

Trump will start a nuclear war with both North Korea and China, and I'll go to the gas chamber.

If North Korea "provokes", China won't get involved immediately but it will eventually.

Wut?

[BudgieForce]

Its basically a new asian cold war. If North Korea makes a move, they'll loose China and any war they fight. If the United States makes a move, it means fighting both North Korea and China. So neither party is going to move. Trump hopefully wont because hes surrounded by Generals who know better. North Korea wont because Kim Jung Un's sole goal is survival.

Kim Jong Un is absolutely insane, he  knows hes on borrowed time in his country before he gets assassinated so the way i see it, he's not looking to survive, hes looking to take out as many people as he can with him

Which isn't a great thing to do when trying to make sense of foreign policy.

[BudgieForce]

Once communists always communists.

I can't believe China would defend such an idiotic leader like Kim.

Part of me wants to economically punish China for this, but that would just make things worse.

We're going to be nuking China soon, around the time they nuke us. Would that count as economic punishment, or just making things worse?

Chill. China is trying to prevent war, not start it.

[BudgieForce]

This is utter insanity, however per the Guardian "There was no change in US deployments in the region or a change in the alert status of US forces" after Trump's statement. At this point American foreign/military policy and Trump's ramblings are two separate things

If there was change in troop deployments, Japan and SK would be alerted and say no. However, Trump doesn't need them to start a war, just his B1-B's. He may think to force their hand by shooting first then they have no choice but be dragged in. Or think if no troop deployments NK won't retaliate, even though they'd still be forced to.

Beet you are correct in that it would be air only at first. The USA would open up as well but USAF/USN assets would strike NK with a metric-f ton of Tomahawks, maybe SLBMs, and B-1B/B-2 strikes. If we did boots-on (which we won't) it would open the door to China stepping in, which we don't want.

We already have boots on the ground, VirginiaModerate.

30,000 in South Korea and I think 40,000 in Japan.

[BudgieForce]

@Gotfan The theory (among others) is that they view KJU as weak. While he is a leader and almost God-like to the general populace, the old salts view him as a fat weakling but put up with the charade. If the hardliners actually think the US would strike and Kim says no-go, they might go around him but I think if Kim thought we would pre-empt, he would order the strike anyway. Catch 22.

So you're syin a strike is inevitable?

There are no good options. Status quo DPRK, preemption, SOF strike, all have the guaranteed risk of NK hitting back. The statement put out by the NK Army for the mid-August go/no go for the Guam potential strike ups the ante to the extreme. So yes given the recent developments, and Kim Trump standoff. It is basically who shoots first in the old Western standoff. The key is that if we shoot first (preemptive or surgical strike) it opens the door for Chinese intervention.

No a strike isnt inevitable.

[BudgieForce]

I wonder what this could mean.

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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/896017139831799809

[BudgieForce]

So is world war 3 bout to happen? Are we gonna die?

Yes, slowly and painfully..../s

Of course not, stop asking.

[BudgieForce]

On one hand, im somewhat glad Trump is calling Kim Jung-Un's bluff. On the other hand, its Trump, who has proven to be unpredictable and a poor decision maker.