North Korea Mega Thread

[pbrower2a]

There's a good possibility that even if regime change happens the North Korean citizens won't go quietly. Many hate the regime but many are also brainwashed into loving it. Worst I can see is Vietcong-level resistance to a democratic North Korea or unified Korea.

As things were understood about Nazi Germany on the brink of defeat around the time of the failure of the German offensive known as the Battle of the Bulge:

There's a good possibility that even if regime change happens the German citizens won't go quietly. Many hate the regime but many are also brainwashed into loving it. Worst I can see is Werewolf resistance to an occupied Germany.

.............

The brainwashing dies quickly. China will be supplying inexpensive radios that can be tuned as needed based upon demographic groups at the least (there will be differences between agricultural and industrial workers alone. North Korean youth will get access to pop culture of South Korea, which will destroy any cultural loyalty. There will be old American, British, and Japanese TV series dubbed into Korean. Don't fool yourself: China will have no use for the rabid nationalism of the North Korean regime that can be turned on a dime from anti-Americanism to anti-Chinese hatred.  China is no model of democracy, but even it has a difference from North Korea: what isn't specifically prohibited will be tolerated, in contrast to the practice in North Korea in which practically everything offered is an object of mandatory belief.

The Korean Workers' Party will be outlawed as were the Nazi Party in Germany, the Imperial Rule Assistance Association in Japan, and the Fascist Party in Italy in 1945,; the Communist Party of Romania in 1989; and the Ba'ath Party of Iraq in 2003. Its political outlets will be throttled. People culpable in the worst deeds will be prosecuted and possibly executed.

And what would cause the Chinese to overthrow North Korea? Firing missiles through Chinese airspace even if the ultimate destination is the USA. So if the missile is directed at Cleveland and follows a Great Circle Route, then the missile launch is an act of aggression against China, Russia, and Canada as well as the USA.       

[pbrower2a]

It's inevitable and I truly hope he is the one to take action, he's proven that. We have to strike first.

Few criteria exist for preemptive strikes that are not also war crimes.

[pbrower2a]

I can imagine some Chinese demands for a re-unified Korea:

1. No military alliance with Japan, Taiwan, or the USA.
2. Favorable trade treatment with China.
3. Legalization of Communist Parties other than the Korean Workers' Party (which would be outlawed much like the Nazis in Germany and Austria).
4. NUCLEAR FREE Korea.

Korea can still have a democracy and free enterprise.

[pbrower2a]

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This last test was with an IRBM not an ICBM and likely with a lofted trajectory. Memes like this are dumb and underestimate NK capabilities. The actual ranges are below:

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In 33 years of North Korea's nuclear missile program, the farthest launch they have achieved is 3,700 km, with a theoretical maximum range of ~7,500 km. I could post a map of all of the world with the caption "super duper super weapon mega-scary range (estimated, not successfully tested)," and it would be equally useful to formulating a policy towards North Korea as either the map you posted or the meme I posted.

As it currently stands, South Korea has not changed its defensive posture re: North Korea, neither has Russia or China. Memes like mine are dumb, but maps like yours are blatant scaremongering, trying to get Americans enthusiastic for another unnecessary war.

Take for example:


Now, do you expect this was published to A) prepare missile defenses, and educate people of the proper terminology of which missiles would likely hit which targets or B) AAAHHHHH scary map with places I've heard of on it! We need to do take care of evil mustache dude before those circles reach places I care about!

So long as the Iran-Iraq war was going on , the world could largely ignore the Iraqi missile program. Once Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and fired some missiles at Israel as a diversion (one way to offend the USA), the missile program became an issue.

I remember an issue of Scientific American in which the range of missiles was shown for countries that possessed them -- just before Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. The first thing that I noticed was that much of the range of Iraqi missiles included a significant part of the Soviet Union. It should not be surprising that President Gorbachev became as hostile as anyone toward an Iraqi missile program once Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait.     

[pbrower2a]

Well, looks like Japan might change its constitution thanks to North Korea's missile program.

In the 1980s, Japan threatened to start  developing nuclear weapons in the event that North Korea did. Neither China nor the Soviet Union protested, even though both were opposed to nuclear proliferation. I'm guessing that the Japanese would have bought Soviet nukes or hired Soviet nuclear scientists.

The Soviet Union and China put an end to any North Korean nuke program.