North Korea Mega Thread

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Contrary to you worry warts, I see this as saying, unless China's gonna do something, there's no point in passing yet another toothless resolution. It's not a call for war-war, but yawn-yawn.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Contrary to you worry warts, I see this as saying, unless China's gonna do something, there's no point in passing yet another toothless resolution. It's not a call for war-war, but yawn-yawn.

I would agree, except for

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That sounds to me like a rejection of further diplomacy. 

No, it's a rejection of more pointless yammering at the UN that wouldn't even involve talking with North Korea. Imagine that, the UN Ambassador focusing on what the UN can and cannot do? Right now, passing yet another toothless resolution at the UN does nothing.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Contrary to you worry warts, I see this as saying, unless China's gonna do something, there's no point in passing yet another toothless resolution. It's not a call for war-war, but yawn-yawn.

I would agree, except for

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That sounds to me like a rejection of further diplomacy. 

No, it's a rejection of more pointless yammering at the UN that wouldn't even involve talking with North Korea. Imagine that, the UN Ambassador focusing on what the UN can and cannot do? Right now, passing yet another toothless resolution at the UN does nothing.

Could you point to even the tiniest sign that "master dealmaker Trump" (roflmao) will do, or can do, anything besides starting a war or throw tantrums at China for not getting him a bottlemagicallly fixing North Korea right now.

Why should we try to do anything? The U.S. doesn't have the ability to accomplish anything worthwhile on its own. If anything is to be accomplished it'll require Chinese involvement and that'll happen when Xi thinks it's in China's own interests. I share your doubts that Trump can convince Xi of that, but I don't share the belief you share with Trump that there is something we can do on our own.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

There was a UN security council resolution condemning North Korea that had the support of the other 14 members, including China, but it was Russia who vetoed. Scapegoating Russia for everything has consequences.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/19/asia/russia-un-veto-north-korea/index.html

At least Russia is urging serious negotiation with North Korea along with sanctions, that is more reasonable than the current "no talks until North Korea agrees to denuclearize first" administration policy, to be frank.

How so?  That's the only thing we really want and we know we're not going to get it.  This is all show on all parts at this point.  Pursuing North Korean talks is about as productive as pursuing a Middle East peace deal at this point.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Beet, what more would you want Trump to do, capitulate? The offer to suspend the nuclear testing program in exchange for suspending exercises with North Korea is worthless. It doesn't accomplish any U.S. goal and the North would be able to end it at will, whenver they're ready to do more tests.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Beet, what more would you want Trump to do, capitulate? The offer to suspend the nuclear testing program in exchange for suspending exercises with North Korea is worthless. It doesn't accomplish any U.S. goal and the North would be able to end it at will, whenver they're ready to do more tests.

What exactly is "capitulation", Ernest? Capitulation would be allowing the North to overrun the South and unify Korea under its rule. Suspending exercises costs nothing, not even a single cent, nor does offering to talk. Is merely talking with them so horrific that getting major cities nuked is preferable to it? I don't understand that reasoning.

I don't understand your reasoning that refusing to go along with Kim III's propaganda offensive must inevitably lead to a military offensive. Suspending exercises gains nothing and gives Kim the ability to boast he forced the United States to back down. The Trump Administration has far too few people at State to waste them in meaningless (to us, tho not Kim) talks that won't go anywhere.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Beet, what more would you want Trump to do, capitulate? The offer to suspend the nuclear testing program in exchange for suspending exercises with North Korea is worthless. It doesn't accomplish any U.S. goal and the North would be able to end it at will, whenver they're ready to do more tests.

What exactly is "capitulation", Ernest? Capitulation would be allowing the North to overrun the South and unify Korea under its rule. Suspending exercises costs nothing, not even a single cent, nor does offering to talk. Is merely talking with them so horrific that getting major cities nuked is preferable to it? I don't understand that reasoning.

I don't understand your reasoning that refusing to go along with Kim III's propaganda offensive must inevitably lead to a military offensive. Suspending exercises gains nothing and gives Kim the ability to boast he forced the United States to back down. The Trump Administration has far too few people at State to waste them in meaningless (to us, tho not Kim) talks that won't go anywhere.

Suspending exercises means that the (paranoid, with some some justification) rulers of North Korea don't need to constantly be worrying about a surprise US/South Korea invasion, and don't need to decide between using their giant military machine to harvest crops or keep them prepared for a surprise attack. Ideally, this will make them less paranoid, which seems like a good change for a disconnected regime with a horrible record that has FOUR WMD programs.

I think Kim has a firmer grip on reality than that. He's knows that any effort to topple him will come in the form of a coup or assassination, not a surprise attack. Why do think North Korea freaked out over The Interview?

Keeping the North Korean populace at the brink of starvation helps Kim by keeping the people from having the energy needed to topple him.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Beet, why do you assume that face is a uniquely East Asian concept. At this stage, there is absolutely nothing to be gained from even low-level talks with the North Koreans that cannot be gained from China and North Korea having a serious talk. Not only that but nothing can be gained without Chinese involvement. Now, if the Chinese can manage to produce something more tangible than direct talks with North Korea, it would then be time to reconsider.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Kim is bluffing, at this point, about the continental US. 

First, North Korea threatened the US mainland.  Then, the next day, they change that to Guam, the closest US possession to  North Korea.  They wouldn't change that if they could strike the continental US.

Beyond that, North Korea can at least hit Guam with conventional weapons, at least.

Guam is a small island.  Since we have no idea what area the Norks were targeting with their previous tests, we have no idea how accurate their systems are, and they likely are worried about that too. So a test firing at Guamanian waters compared to offshore the US mainland has the dual advantage of minimizing the chance of hitting something by accident and since wherever it lands likely gets heavy press coverage, the Norks get an idea of how accurately they aimed it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Clearly we need to go back to War Plans Red and Gold and end the last remnants of European colonialism in the Americas.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

My guess is that 1) the Russians are feeding the North Koreans missile technology, including the ability to hit the U.S., as well as giving them hacking assistance, and 2) Trump (who the Russians put into office) wants to start a war to lift his sagging approval ratings. The end result will be great for Russia: Heavy, potentially nuclear catastrophe for the U.S. and two major U.S. allies, and possible war between the U.S. and China, while it itself sits pretty and perhaps has a chance to grab more of Ukraine / Belarus while the U.S. is distracted.

There's a good chance that Russia is helping North Korea, but I doubt that they actually want war.

True, but it wouldn't be the first time Russia's helped a country into starting a war the Russians didn't want.  Serbia 1914 and North Korea 1950 both come to mind. (Not that Serbia wanted war in 1914 either.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Report that NK hacked Daewoo Shipbuilding and got warship blueprints https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/31/north-korea-hacked-daewoo-shipbuilding-took-warship-blueprints-south-korea-lawmaker.html

SK needs to up their cyber game in a big way to prevent this. Second strike for SK failing to protect mil docs.

NK’s hacking abilities are insane. Call me paranoid, but there’s no way they’re not getting outside help.

Kaspersky?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

More like the Korean Leopold III.