Why did Trump do better among Northern surburban voters, worse among southern? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 30, 2024, 11:40:05 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Why did Trump do better among Northern surburban voters, worse among southern? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Why did Trump do better among Northern surburban voters, worse among southern?  (Read 3043 times)
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,738
United States


WWW
« on: September 04, 2017, 06:09:33 AM »

Religion is likely a big issue here when it comes to northern whites vs. southern whites. I don't think it's regional appeal since Clinton and Trump were both New Yorkers and the fact that the Northeast didn't trend towards the GOP in 2012 for the most part (Romney was Governor of Massachusetts after all).

Trump ran a very secular campaign compared to past GOP presidents. When he started talking about God during his inauguration it me about just how little he spoke about God, Jesus, or family values on the campaign trail when compared to Romney, McCain, or Bush. This was likely a pretty big plus to whites in the northeast and upper Midwest who are much more secular than whites in the South; and also helps to explain why he did worse with suburban whites in the south vs. suburban whites in the north.

Romney is technically the former governor of MA, but he shifted further to the right in 2012 vs. 2008. Romney was also simultaneously seen to some extent as a quasi-utah candidate, rather than a proper northeasterner.

Hillary is not really seen as a New Yorker. She is just known for being associated with Bill Clinton.

She was senator of New York for nearly an entire decade.

She was that, but she was not a "New Yorker" in the sense Trump was/is.

That being said, New York is a state where celebrities and national pols can move to and become viable candidates.  New York is an "elitist" state in the sense that it expects its Governors and Senators to be a cut above the crowd and not just simple folks who understand simple folks like themselves.  Rick Lazio was that kind of candidate; a typical suburban GOP kid who grew up to be a lawyer and worked himself up the political ladder.  He got spanked by Hillary, who would have been considered a "Carpetbagger" in any number of states.  There have been exceptions to that, of course, but those are exceptions, and not norms.
Logged
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,738
United States


WWW
« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2017, 06:17:32 AM »

I believe that's normal. Our urban areas and rural areas are more Republican than the North's, but our suburban areas are decidedly more Democratic than the North's.

Not in Chicago, San Francisco,  Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Boston, Seattle, Portland, or NYC, at a very minimum.

Also, suburban Birmingham, suburban Jackson, and even suburban Little Rock are fiercely conservative--comparable to the suburban areas of the Milwaukee and Indianapolis metros.

Other suburban areas in the South, such as in the Atlanta metro, swung sharply towards Hillary in large part because of increased minority population.  Trump still carried an overwhelming majority of whites there.
Southern Suburbs have a far higher percentage of churchgoers than do Northern Suburbs; this is one reason.

The other reason is that Southern suburbs are newer and, in a number of cases, growing due to "white flight" from the central cities.  This is not what is happening in Northern suburbs; they are growing mostly through "black flight" from the central cities.  (Michael Barone has often pointed out that "White Flight" to the Northern suburbs happened a long time ago.)

Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.019 seconds with 13 queries.