OH-Luntz Global: Brown +19

[henster]

Sherrod Brown - 53%

Josh Mandel - 34%

TRUMP - 45/47

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BygPDvU_T-LiY3JTN1g1YlJVRGpYQjM2NHJ3V0NVTVFlaWtn/view

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

This is Frank Luntz's company.

Great news!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LOL, Junk Poll

[heatcharger]

Great poll!

[Beet]

Mathew, Mark, Luke, John, and Luntz

[Holmes]

Wow, from an 8 point lead to a 19 point deficit. Mandel choked harder than Strickland!

[GlobeSoc]

I wish, but its probably a failed anti-Cordray hitjob trying to say "its not the ohio dems being unelectable, it's you personally, Cordray"

[The Other Castro]

Ha no.

[Xing]

Obviously junk, but people shouldn't be reading too much into any polls right now.

[Kamala]

Polls are wrong unless they support my candidate!

[BuckeyeNut]

Every poll of a Brown-Mandel rematch has been junk.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

wot

[AtorBoltox]

Just as junk as the polls showing Brown behind by 8

[Coraxion]

Great poll!

[Gass3268]

Wow and this is from a Republican pollster! Brown is probably up closer to 25 points! /s

[Anna Komnene]

If you actually dig into the numbers, this poll makes some sense, not as a prediction of results but as an expression of the current state of the race.

31% definitely Sherrod Brown
14% probably Sherrod Brown
8% undecided but leaning Brown
13% truly and totally undecided

Brown is a two term Senator who's been around Ohio politics for four decade, he has a pretty big national profile for a Senator, and the current political environment for congressional Republicans is terrible. It's not really surprising that Brown would have stickier support than Mandel 15 months before the election, but even with that sticky support, only 45% are likely Brown voters, with the rest being undecideds and leaners. That doesn't mean Mandel is going to lose by 19 points. He's likely to pick up a good portion of the "truly undecided" voters as people eventually coalesce around the parties in the campaign, but he will need the national environment to improve and he'll have his work cut out for him in the campaign, especially since he needs to convince people why they should vote for him in 2018 when they already voted against him in 2012. So I think for a poll 15 months out, it at least says a few things about how things are going right now.

[TheSaint250]

The fact that people on here are now believing a junk poll is quite sad. I can't remember the last time Luntz was cited anywhere. Just like the others, dismiss it.

[_]

Ok +19 Brown is a bit nuts, but +8 Mandel is not exactly correct either.
I'm keeping this race at tossup.

Edit:  Brain is fried, apologies.

[TheSaint250]

Ok +19 Mandel is a bit nuts, but +8 is not exactly correct either.
I'm keeping this race at tossup.

This is brown +19

[Devout Centrist]

This is the worst board on the site

[Littlefinger]

Wish this was true but obviously junk. I have Brown winning in the end by 2-4 points.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wish this was true but obviously junk. I have Brown winning in the end by 2-4 points.

I say 7-9%, but yes, this is obviously junk just like every other poll of this race so far.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Obvious junk, but rematches almost never work out, and it's hard to defeat an incumbent senator in a midterm with an unpopular opposite-party president.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Probably junk, but it's gonna be so fun to watch that nerd Mandel get clobbered a SECOND time.

[swf541]

Obvious junk, but rematches almost never work out, and it's hard to defeat an incumbent senator in a midterm with an unpopular opposite-party president.