States that have trended the same way three consecutive times

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

...in presidential elections ('04-'08, '08-12, and 12-16).

States that barely missed the cut:

• Oregon (trended left '04-'08 and 12-16, but trended right '08-12 by just 0.86%)
• Colorado (trending left '04-'08 and 12-16, but trended right '08-12 by just 0.19%)
• Iowa (trended right '08-12 and 12-16, but trended left '04-'08 by just 0.48%)
  
• Texas (trended left '04-'08 and 12-16, but trended right '08-12 by just 0.63%)
  

[Keep cool-idge]

But New Hampshire trended to left big time in 2004-2008
North Carolina also trended right 2012-2016
How did these states trend left and right?

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

But New Hampshire trended to left big time in 2004-2008
North Carolina also trended right 2012-2016
How did these states trend left and right?

Trend is not swing. It is swing compared to the nation as a whole.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

But New Hampshire trended to left big time in 2004-2008
North Carolina also trended right 2012-2016
How did these states trend left and right?

According to my calculations (based off of Atlas election results), New Hampshire was D+3.84 in 2004 (Kerry won it by 1.37 and Bush won nationally by 2.47) and D+2.35 in 2008 (Obama won it by 9.61 and he won nationally by 7.26). North Carolina was R+5.90 in 2012 (Romney won it by 2.04 and Obama won nationally by 3.86) and R+5.75 in 2016 (Trump won it by 3.66 and Clinton won nationally by 2.09).

[Nyvin]

Massachusetts probably would've made the list if it weren't Kerry's home state.

[AN63093]

LOL, WV seven times in a row.  Amazing.

[PragmaticPopulist]

LOL, WV seven times in a row.  Amazing.

Unless WV starts to vote for Republicans like a solid south state would vote for Democrats, I believe it has nowhere to trend but to the left in 2020. There can't be that many more non-college whites in WV to vote for Trump.

[TheSaint250]

Oregon and Colorado trended just barely to the right from 12-16

[cvparty]

LOL, WV seven times in a row.  Amazing.

Unless WV starts to vote for Republicans like a solid south state would vote for Democrats, I believe it has nowhere to trend but to the left in 2020. There can't be that many more non-college whites in WV to vote for Trump.

I see it trending Republican again in 2020

[AN63093]

LOL, WV seven times in a row.  Amazing.

Unless WV starts to vote for Republicans like a solid south state would vote for Democrats, I believe it has nowhere to trend but to the left in 2020. There can't be that many more non-college whites in WV to vote for Trump.

Good point, and I've thought about this myself... whether WV has truly been maxed out yet, and if we'll see something of a "dead cat bounce" in 2020.

A small D swing I could see in 2020, but I don't know about a D trend, particularly if Trump doesn't much improve in the national PV.  It might still be a little too early for that.

[Nyvin]

Oregon and Colorado trended just barely to the right from 12-16

Nope, both trended Dem from 12-16.  They both swung Republican though.

[MT Treasurer]

Wyoming trending Republican in 2008 is a bit surprising. Amazing how loyal this state has been to the Republican Party, regardless of what kind of Republican they nominate.

WV trended Republicans 7 times in a row? I can't say I'm surprised, but it's pretty incredible nonetheless.

[SingingAnalyst]

I find it fascinating that most states that have trended D 3 times in a row (or more) are adjacent to one or more states that have trended R 3 or even 6 times in a row.

I am interested to see whether NC trends D in 2020. I predict Yes; the main reason it only trended 0.15% D in '12-'16 is, I believe, reaction to some intense protests in Charlotte.

As for WV, unless the D candidate specifically targets WV, I don't see it trending D in 2020.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon and Colorado trended just barely to the right from 12-16

Nope, both trended Dem from 12-16.  They both swung Republican though.

3rd Party Votes???

I believe they disproportionately from defections to the Left in both States....

[Nyvin]

Oregon and Colorado trended just barely to the right from 12-16

Nope, both trended Dem from 12-16.  They both swung Republican though.

3rd Party Votes???

I believe they disproportionately from defections to the Left in both States....

3rd Parties are ridiculously popular in Oregon, so that wouldn't surprise me at all.   

[TheSaint250]

Oregon and Colorado trended just barely to the right from 12-16

Nope, both trended Dem from 12-16.  They both swung Republican though.

Are you talking about in terms of percentage?

[PragmaticPopulist]

Wyoming trending Republican in 2008 is a bit surprising. Amazing how loyal this state has been to the Republican Party, regardless of what kind of Republican they nominate.

WV trended Republicans 7 times in a row? I can't say I'm surprised, but it's pretty incredible nonetheless.

No kidding. Wyoming last trended D in 2004, when Dick Cheney was on the ticket. That was probably due to Nader going from 2.12% in 2000 to 1.13% in 2004. Also, I just noticed that Wyoming has swung away from the incumbent president's party in every election since 1988. If it holds true in 2020, then Wyoming will swing more Democratic.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

LOL, WV seven times in a row.  Amazing.

Unless WV starts to vote for Republicans like a solid south state would vote for Democrats, I believe it has nowhere to trend but to the left in 2020. There can't be that many more non-college whites in WV to vote for Trump.

Remember how shocked people were when Obama collapsed in Appalachia and the rural South so badly in 2008? I assumed that there was no way Obama or the Democrats could do worse in 2012, or 2016. I was wrong on both counts, it got much much worse even from the 2008 regional disaster. I am undecided on if WV will trend Republican again, but recent history has shown pessimism is warranted.

[twenty42]

I don't read too much into trends. It is a very flukey stat that is heavily affected by strong national swings.

Look at 2008. 23 states plus D.C. trended Republican despite the nation swinging Democratic by nearly 10 points. It is the law of averages that a lot of states will move closer to the median in the event of a massive swing in the opposite direction.