College Football pick'em 2017- Gameplay and scoring thread

[WritOfCertiorari]

This really makes it unfortunate that the Georgia Tech game had to be cancelled. That would have been a very respectable win. Hell, UCF probably would be ranked in the top 10 with that win.

I’m also surprised that we don’t have more Wisconsin love on here. They could sneak into a number 2 seed with enough chaos. They have to win out, but forgive me if I don’t think Michigan and Ohio State are too intimidating right now for a Wisconsin team on a hot streak.

[WritOfCertiorari]

The point is that they still wouldn't have the necessary wins under such a set of circumstances, but ok

And my point is staying unbeaten should be rewarded no matter who you are, or who you've beaten.

So using your logic, what's keeping an independent like BYU or Notre Dame from scheduling really bad teams every game of the season? They could easily have "muh undefeated record." Would they be worthy of getting into the playoff?

If they won all those games, yes. But pride would prevent Notre Dame from doing that, and someone is going to be willing to play BYU, if only to fill a hole on it's own schedule.

So you would support an undefeated team with a schedule full of cupcakes over a 1 loss major conference champion?

In almost every circumstance yes. There's a thing called the eye test too. If the one loss champion struggled all season, (Wisconsin for example), they don't deserve to get in.

Also, I wouldn't call UCF's next two games...against USF, and against Memphis in AAC Championship game cupcakes. Both teams only have one loss.

They don't pass the eye test, they haven't played anyone. They are worse than last years Western Michigan squad. I would totally leave them out, give them a top tear non-playoff bowl and let them get slapped down by some better conference team.

Western Michigan ended up losing in a close one to Wisconsin last year, but arguably they were better than Washington, who actually made it into the playoff.

Also, UCF did beat Navy, who lost 24-17 to #8 Notre Dame today. That alone probably passes the eye test, doesn't it?

I don't get how with 4 teams in the playoff, we still get undefeated teams left out. This is one of the top 2 or 3 reasons everyone wanted to get rid of the BCS anyway. Maybe we should just give up on the playoff system and let the Rose Bowl decide the champion like in the old days.

[WritOfCertiorari]

The point is that they still wouldn't have the necessary wins under such a set of circumstances, but ok

And my point is staying unbeaten should be rewarded no matter who you are, or who you've beaten.

So using your logic, what's keeping an independent like BYU or Notre Dame from scheduling really bad teams every game of the season? They could easily have "muh undefeated record." Would they be worthy of getting into the playoff?

If they won all those games, yes. But pride would prevent Notre Dame from doing that, and someone is going to be willing to play BYU, if only to fill a hole on it's own schedule.

So you would support an undefeated team with a schedule full of cupcakes over a 1 loss major conference champion?

In almost every circumstance yes. There's a thing called the eye test too. If the one loss champion struggled all season, (Wisconsin for example), they don't deserve to get in.

Also, I wouldn't call UCF's next two games...against USF, and against Memphis in AAC Championship game cupcakes. Both teams only have one loss.

They don't pass the eye test, they haven't played anyone. They are worse than last years Western Michigan squad. I would totally leave them out, give them a top tear non-playoff bowl and let them get slapped down by some better conference team.

Western Michigan ended up beating Wisconsin last year, so arguably they were better than Washington, who actually made it into the playoff.

Also, UCF did beat Navy, who lost 24-17 to #8 Notre Dame today. That alone probably passes the eye test, doesn't it?

I don't get how with 4 teams in the playoff, we still get undefeated teams left out. This is one of the top 2 or 3 reasons everyone wanted to get rid of the BCS anyway. Maybe we should just give up on the playoff system and let the Rose Bowl decide the champion like in the old days.

So beating a team (Navy) who lost by 7 to a team (Notre Dame) who got beat by 33 by Miami automatically makes you one of the best 4 teams in the country? Makes a whole lot of sense doesn't it?

I’m not sure that’s the best way to look at things, because you start getting stupid stuff like LSU being better than Georgia this year because LSU beat Auburn and Auburn beat Georgia. Not to mention Troy. The transitive property doesn’t work in sports.

I think it’s a moot point, anyway, because UCF is likely going to lose to either USF or Memphis. However, if they win out, they should be in. They won’t be though, because the system is about money matchups.

[WritOfCertiorari]

As much as I hate to say it, we will have 2 SEC teams in the playoffs. The SEC Champion, as well as Alabama, will be in.

If Wisconsin wins, they are in from the Big 10.

That leaves the Big 12, Pac-12, UCF, and the ACC.

Alabama would likely be in over TCU if they win the Big 12. If Oklahoma wins the Big 12, they are probably in.

The ACC's playoff hopes are hanging by a thread after this weekend.

Therefore, the most likely playoff scenario is:

1. Wisconsin
2. Auburn/Georgia (whoever wins could jump Clemson)
3. Clemson/Miami/Oklahoma (only one of these will get in, probably Oklahoma honestly)
4. Alabama (will get in no matter what, even with the loss and no conference championship)

[WritOfCertiorari]

Here are a couple of more scenarios:

If Wisconsin loses to Ohio State

1. SEC Champion
2. ACC Champion
3. Oklahoma
4. Alabama... maybe, just maybe Ohio State, but they embarrassed the committee last year, so...

If Oklahoma loses to TCU

1. SEC Champion
2. ACC Champion
3. Wisconsin
4. Alabama is in without a doubt

If both of those happen:

1. SEC Champion
2. ACC Champion
3. Alabama would edge up, and then...
4. Ohio State, with a small chance of TCU, but probably not. UCF would have a tiny chance... extremely unlikely, but it is possible if everyone goes up in smoke next week. It depends on whether the committee respects them enough for beating USF (and Memphis, possibly). USC, Notre Dame, Stanford, etc. are out even if they win out the rest of the way.

[WritOfCertiorari]

But Ohio State embarrassed the committee last year, so maybe they'll take another look at things. I don't see this OSU team beating Wisconsin anyway, but I could be wrong.

[WritOfCertiorari]

I guess I may as well jump in:

Stanford
UCF
North Texas
Oklahoma
Georgia
Boise State
Clemson
Wisconsin
Navy

[WritOfCertiorari]

I agree with the two guys up there actually, they'll probably pick Bama. Ohio State ironically set that precedent last year.

[WritOfCertiorari]

I think Alabama should be in using Ohio State's precedent from last year. No conference championship. Also, I remember the argument last year against Penn State when people said something like "no team who got beat by 20+ points should be considered for the playoff." You can't just overlook a 31 point beat down by a 7-5 team. If Alabama had lost by 31 to a similar 7-5 team (Texas A&M) they would have been out of the discussion a while ago.

Without that win against Oklahoma then I think the committee seriously considers Penn State. Alabama has no top 15 wins while Ohio State will probably have two top 10 wins. Sure the losses are bad but I think the quality wins should factor significantly into the equation; Alabama struggles down the stretch and weak schedule should probably leave them out but we’ll see (personally I think they will get in even if Ohio State probably should get in over Alabama.)

It really hurt Alabama to lose at the end of the season. If the shoe was on the other foot and Alabama lost earlier in the season against an equally good opponent like Auburn, they would be in the playoff no doubt. Just like if Ohio State lost by 30+ points late in the season.

Alabama's wins weren't as good but judging their whole body of work, they absolutely dominated their opponents. They absolutely dominated and there was a feeling that "man, this is the best team in the country." Ohio State didn't have that and it's extremely difficult to forget about that 31 point loss to a 7-5 team.

It was more of a scheduling thing for them this year. Their best win was against LSU, which isn't really as impressive as it could have been, and Ohio State just beat a top 4 Wisconsin team in a game they pretty much fully controlled all the way through. I think what makes it worse is that Georgia beat Auburn. If Auburn had won, at least Alabama's only loss would have been to a playoff team.

I agree with your second point, but do you remember that Mississippi State game? They looked pretty crappy in that one, and it doesn't help that was late in the season. Then the Bulldogs barely beat Ole Miss. It's weird to say I guess, but this was a down year for Alabama, somehow!

[WritOfCertiorari]

If it makes anyone feel better, at least we won’t have to see Ohio State get destroyed again. Alabama-Clemson should be a great matchup and Oklahoma-Georgia is intriguing. This could be the best playoffs yet.

[WritOfCertiorari]

Mostly because they picked teams like Washington and Michigan State that, while “deserving” a spot, were obviously not as good as the other playoff teams. If we were just going by who deserves to be in the playoff, we would probably have UCF in there. Instead they can prove themselves against Auburn in the Peach Bowl and will likely be given some respect by the committee.

The committee is now trying to minimize its risks and create good matchups, rather than going for the team that did its work and “deserves” in. That’s better for the playoffs itself, but makes this more like the BCS than the NCAA basketball tournament.

[WritOfCertiorari]

Do y’all think UCF will be ranked No. 2 in the final AP Poll?

[WritOfCertiorari]

In other news, along with their 4 first-place votes in the AP poll, UCF has finished first in the Colley Matrix ratings system, a former BCS component. This is the first claimed national title for the Central Florida football program in Division 1 FBS play.

1.    UCF               0.975472   13-0   0.548621: 49   3   5   W: #13 Auburn
2.    Alabama       0.969225   13-1   0.607685: 16   4   7   W: #4 Georgia
3.    Wisconsin       0.963034   13-1   0.600611: 21   4   6   W: #11 Miami (FL)
4.    Georgia       0.956415   13-2   0.650603: 5   5   6   W: #8 Notre Dame
5.    Ohio St       0.947197   12-2   0.653939: 4   4   6   W: #3 Wisconsin
6.    Clemson       0.929354   12-2   0.633548: 11   4   9   W: #11 Miami (FL)
7.    Penn St       0.909042   11-2   0.625818: 12   3   4   W: #14 Northwestern
8.    Notre Dame       0.891201   10-3   0.682155: 2   4   7   W: #10 Michigan St
9.    Oklahoma       0.878860   12-2   0.575841: 32   4   6   W: #5 Ohio St
10.    Michigan St       0.856520   10-3   0.642138: 7   2   4   W: #7 Penn St
11.    Miami (FL)       0.832242   10-3   0.614125: 14   1   4   W: #8 Notre Dame
12.    USC       0.825189   11-3   0.585930: 29   0   4   W: #28 Stanford
13.    Auburn       0.810911   10-4   0.641042: 8   3   4   W: #2 Alabama
14.    Northwestern       0.804470   10-3   0.582081: 30   2   4   W: #10 Michigan St
15.    TCU       0.790719   11-3   0.546536: 51   1   4   W: #21 Oklahoma St
16.    NC State       0.757578   9-4   0.604898: 18   0   4   W: #37 Boston Coll
17.    Boise St       0.753207   11-3   0.503665: 80   0   3   W: #31 Troy
18.    Iowa       0.752439   8-5   0.675892: 3   1   4   W: #5 Ohio St
19.    Memphis       0.750770   10-3   0.520120: 72   0   2   W: #41 Navy
20.    Washington       0.747533   10-3   0.516384: 74   0   2   W: #30 Washington St
21.    Oklahoma St       0.744866   10-3   0.513307: 75   0   3   W: #29 Virginia Tech
22.    South Carolina       0.742913   9-4   0.587977: 28   1   2   W: #16 NC State
23.    Florida Atlantic       0.737613   11-3   0.485844: 85   0   2   W: #46 North Texas
24.    LSU       0.724983   9-4   0.567288: 37   1   2   W: #13 Auburn
25.    Mississippi St       0.723433   9-4   0.565500: 39   1   4   W: #24 LSU

source: http://www.colleyrankings.com/currank.html

[WritOfCertiorari]

yay TCU finished in the top 10 on AP

Also, UCF can claim all of the national titles they want, LOL

I mean, it doesn't actually matter. No matter who claims the "mythical national championship", Alabama won the College Football Playoff.

To be perfectly fair, I'm sure Alabama has claimed some national titles in the past without necessarily being #1 in the final AP poll. It's more of an oddity of college football than anything else.